Nations League B/C Promotion/Relegation Playoffs - March 2025

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Originally Posted by Insidetherock

Not so much we've been steeped.. we've been playing "at our level".. remember in the one 3 team NL competition, we finished 3rd in the group and would have been relegated but for the change to 4 teams

We're at the level of 25-30th in Europe

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Well the point is more that in each of the four-team-group Nations Leagues, we've had the worst-ranked League B team in our group. That should have helped our points tally - but actually we've been the lowest-ranked third-place team twice out of three tournaments. A 90th-minute penalty was needed to keep that from being three out of three.

There's groups in this where all the teams can take points off each other - Albania could go down on 7 points tomorrow, Romania and Turkey did go down on 7 and 6 points in prior tournaments. If we get one of those groups, we're gone, because we can't take points off everyone else.

We've been steeped not to get one of those groups in the three campaigns so far.

I'd prefer Sweden to drawing Slovakia, which is unlikely now. Sweden do have exceptional players in front positions but the team itself is quite unbalanced, the quality up front is not matched in the rest of team. Slovakia's quality is more evenly spread. Not sure why previous posters are talking up Sweden and knocking Azerbaijan. Sure, Sweden have since gotten revenge, but Azerbaijan (easily) beat Sweden 3-0 this time last year ...

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Originally Posted by pineapple stu

Well the point is more that in each of the four-team-group Nations Leagues, we've had the worst-ranked League B team in our group. That should have helped our points tally - but actually we've been the lowest-ranked third-place team twice out of three tournaments. A 90th-minute penalty was needed to keep that from being three out of three.

There's groups in this where all the teams can take points off each other - Albania could go down on 7 points tomorrow, Romania and Turkey did go down on 7 and 6 points in prior tournaments. If we get one of those groups, we're gone, because we can't take points off everyone else.

We've been steeped not to get one of those groups in the three campaigns so far.

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Not sure if you're counting the current group or not, but Finland were the second seeds in this group and Greece were the supposedly bottom ranked team. It was a tough group and a large part of the reason Finland are the lowest performing team across the B division is because we have we have beaten them twice. This was not a lucky group draw for us at all. I'd say getting 6 points in this company represents overachievement as a whole as England are obviously miles ahead of everyone in the B division and Greece look like one of the strongest B division sides this time around as well.

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Originally Posted by Eirambler

Not sure if you're counting the current group or not, but Finland were the second seeds in this group and Greece were the supposedly bottom ranked team.

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I'm counting the current group, but I'm going off the team that finished last rather than the team that was bottom seed. In that regard, UEFA rank Finland weakest of all the League B sides (along with Montenegro, who also don't have a point)

It's a little bit predictive in a way - the team that finishes last is the team that's going to get the fewest results - but still, Finland are a poor side, as we're Bulgaria and Armenia. If we do get one of the more competitive groups next time (assuming we stay up of course), I think we'll struggle badly.

Agree six points is a decent enough return all things considered though. Would have liked to have taken something off Greece, but doing the double over Finland is a reasonable compromise. It's a bit like Homer Simpson taking on the kids at building a model power plant - we still kicked their butts.

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Originally Posted by pineapple stu

Agree six points is a decent enough return all things considered though. Would have liked to have taken something off Greece, but doing the double over Finland is a reasonable compromise. It's a bit like Homer Simpson taking on the kids at building a model power plant - we still kicked their butts.

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I don't remember that in The Simpsons!

I think 7 points would have drawn general agreement about a good campaign. 6 is better than it might have been. Less would definitely have been a disappointment. I'm not going to extrapolate much from the second half disaster yesterday but England at home was dramatically worse than France at home, Greece home and away marginally better than Kenny's efforts. England away actually had some merit over, say, France away. And I liked how HH made a fairly radical tactical change by our standards yesterday. The capitulation had nothing to do with the McGuinnes / Collins selections etc.

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Originally Posted by Stuttgart88

I don't remember that in The Simpsons!

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It's in the Frank Grimes episode. "But this was a contest for children!" "Yeah - and Homer beat their brains out." (I've misremembered the quote in my original post actually)

I think you can add that we got marginally better as the campaign went on (well, up until the 50th minute yesterday). That's a bit of progress. There's probably a limit to how much any manager can polish this particular turd though. Young players improving in the next few years (if indeed they do) is outside the manager's control.

And if we stay up and Finland get replaced by Romania or Sweden in our next campaign, then we're really in trouble.

That he is, Crafty. That he is.

So anyway. I see Bulgaria and the North doing the business tonight - that mercenary Isaac Price scoring again - so that means Bulgaria go in the pot as potential opponents in March. Repeats of the 2020 games would probably cause much eye-gouging, so let's hope we have improved since then...

Slovakia
Kosovo
Bulgaria
Armenia

look fairly certain to be the four possible opponents in the playoff.

If we do go down, it looks like we could be drawn against San Marino - they're 2-1 up in Liechtenstein with 20 to go. The first time they've ever come from behind to lead in a competitive match, partly because it's also the first time they've ever scored twice in a competitive match. (They did score twice in a friendly in 2003, coming from 2-0 down to draw - again, in Liechtenstein)

Edit - 3-1 now! The San Marino fan Twitter account is going mental.

So who from the expected 4 would we like?

Kosovo? Just shout Serbia if we're getting beat and they'll walk off

I’d say avoid Slovakia anyway ,Armenia probably the best draw, failed to beat the Faroes twice in the last month…

Wouldn't fear any of them.. Wouldn't fancy any of them

The HH years start here

Slovakia the team to avoid here. We know what that means...

Our recent history of avoiding the teams we want to avoid has not been good. We had a one in five chance of drawing one of France or England when they both dropped to second seeds for the Euros qualifiers, we pulled France. We had a one in four chance of drawing England when they fell to the B division of the Nations League this time around, and of course we pulled them. A one in four chance for Slovakia this time (not on the level of England and France obviously, but the clear standout of these four).

80 to 1 would have been the overall odds on getting the worst possible draw three times in a row, let's see what happens on Friday.

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Originally Posted by Eirambler

Slovakia the team to avoid here. We know what that means...

Our recent history of avoiding the teams we want to avoid has not been good. We had a one in five chance of drawing one of France or England when they both dropped to second seeds for the Euros qualifiers, we pulled France. We had a one in four chance of drawing England when they fell to the B division of the Nations League this time around, and of course we pulled them. A one in four chance for Slovakia this time (not on the level of England and France obviously, but the clear standout of these four).

80 to 1 would have been the overall odds on getting the worst possible draw three times in a row, let's see what happens on Friday.

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Thanks for the worry !

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Originally Posted by Eirambler

Slovakia the team to avoid here. We know what that means...

Our recent history of avoiding the teams we want to avoid has not been good. We had a one in five chance of drawing one of France or England when they both dropped to second seeds for the Euros qualifiers, we pulled France. We had a one in four chance of drawing England when they fell to the B division of the Nations League this time around, and of course we pulled them. A one in four chance for Slovakia this time (not on the level of England and France obviously, but the clear standout of these four).

80 to 1 would have been the overall odds on getting the worst possible draw three times in a row, let's see what happens on Friday.

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It's not by bad luck then, it's a payback for that cnut John Delaney which will probably take a generation or two to be paid off.

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Originally Posted by EAFC_rdfl

It's not by bad luck then, it's a payback for that cnut John Delaney which will probably take a generation or two to be paid off.

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The wages of us allowing, sin !

Kosovo have about eight players at Big 5 league teams so they will be tricky. I think victory over them or Slovakia would be a sign of progress, defeat by Bulgaria or Armenia would indicate that we are still in serious trouble

Romania awarded a 3-0 win in the walkoff game so playoff confirmed to be one of Slovakia, Bulgaria, Armenia or Kosovo, with the draw 11am ish on Friday.

Just wondered something about the play offs and the next draws for the Nations League in two years.

The wnners of League C, go up, and take the place of the bottom team in Group B.

So, it would seem logical that these teams would then be in Pot 4 of the next Nations League draw.

But, if a runner up in C, beat a 3rd placed team in B, they will hardly leap frog the Group winners by virtue of winning a play off.

So you'd imagine for example, if Slovakia were to beat Iceland in a play off, then Romania would move up to Pot 3, as the highest ranked C team going up to B

Once again the ranking system brings into focus, that we're the bottom ranked third placed team, ranking us at 29th in the rankings..

The draw for the World Cup is going to be absolutely mental too. UEFA are saying that teams involved in play offs will be in 4 team groups, and will be more likely to be drawn against teams who are also in play offs, with the games kicking off in September. So that will be one convoluted draw when it takes place.

It also means we're pretty much assured we won't be getting England, and we can't get Norn Ireland (they're now also a 3rd seed)

The draw is largely going to be done by computer this time apparently, because there are so many permutations to work through. It's been flagged by journalists in the last few days anyway, but it has now been 100% confirmed that we'll be in a four team group and our second seed opponents will be one of the following six teams:

Greece
Hungary
Serbia
Slovakia
Turkey
Ukraine

So, assuming that the Pot 1 team will be someone who is well out of our league, and the Pot 4 team will be someone we'd hope to be better than, we'll be battling one of the six above for a playoff spot. Oddly, Slovakia are the team to avoid in our Nations League draw, but they're actually probably the best team we could get in the World Cup draw.

Our six qualifiers will all be played in Autumn 2025, so hopefully an opportunity for a good training camp with some friendlies for the squad in June when teams in other groups are playing qualifiers.