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I'd say it's a 50/50 % now. Pat's could win every game to finish the season,whilst the top 3 teams all look out on their feet at this stage. If Derry win the cup Pats will definitely be in Europe anyway,but maybe Rovers should be looking for derry to win the cup.Quote:
Originally Posted by patsdad
3 massive games left are Rovers - Shels, then Pats-Derry and finally Derry -Shels.
1. Galway
2. Pats
3. Sligo
Cup: Drogs
And if not why not.
Some very interesting twists and turns since I posted that table. This weekend will tell a lot.
It's all very glitw. And I don't hate it. I just can't enjoy it.Quote:
Originally Posted by patsdad
Unlikely, probably more so after this friday, but pats to field a weakened team against Derry to improve their own euro qualification chances going into the last day?
Quote:
Originally Posted by A N Mouse
Not a chance. We may need every point if we’re to qualify.
How would that even make sense? In what way would Pats losing to Derry instead of beating them help Pats European qualification hopes going into the last day?Quote:
Originally Posted by A N Mouse
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2 Year Contract
I mean it's a fecking absurd suggestion, but it's a commentary on the nature of the league this season rather than a prediction.
But lets use our imaginations. This weekend could see 10 points separate the top 6, 8 the top 4, or 7 points the top 6 and 4 the top 4. Somewhere in there as unlikely as it is is a scenario where on the last day Derry could finish 2nd or 4th. And a point for Derry against Pat's would guarantee them third, while still keeping Pat's hope of finishing third in their own hands. Knowing that if they lost to Sligo, well Derry were in the cup final
Lets face we should all be buying lotto ticket if it transpires, but it's not beyond the realm of possibility given the way results have gone this year. Probably just needs an away win for Dundalk on friday to kick us off :D
Jayz Stephen Hawking could'nt make sense of that one if he was still aroundQuote:
Originally Posted by A N Mouse
My smart calculations have Shamrock Rovers winning the league on goal difference after Shels and Derry draw on the final day.
I think you need new batteries for your calculator there Nigel, the same way Rovers need a few batteries for their teamQuote:
Originally Posted by nigel-harps1954
Quote:
Originally Posted by A N Mouse
Pretty sure this still doesn't make any sense as to why it would suit Pats to get less points than are on offer. How many points are between each place in the top 5/6 going into the 2nd last game in this scenario and how many assumptions are Pats making about the outcome of the other games that kick off at the same time in order to decide that fielding a weakened team to specifically secure a draw is their best route to Europe?
Wish i could share your optimisum we havent stepped up at all when needed and even with Shels in rag order with form, suspensions and injuries i wouldnt be sure of winning SundayQuote:
Originally Posted by nigel-harps1954
Shels are really not as good as the league table suggests, so I'd be surprised if you didn't at least take a point from them.Quote:
Originally Posted by sbgawa
F*** me, in little over a week this thread has gone from pat's being 20/1 to make europe, to being nailed on, if only Derry can win the cup. I offer a hypothetical taking mad suggestions up a level and get asked to show my non existent maths.Quote:
Originally Posted by bohsmug
Well here goes nothing.
If with two games left, Derry in second are three points clear of pat's and five clear of fourth. Then either of them could finish fourth. Then something something goal difference and a draw would guarantee Derry third and pats fourth.
Does it make sense, hell no, and I prefaced the whole thing with a bit of understatement about it being unlikely. But in a world that makes sense the form teams would be at the top of the table, and that 20/1 shot wouldn't be anywhere near even money. But such is the season we're having
So Pats are 3 points behind Derry in 2nd, 3 points or less behind 3rd and decide to throw the game to put qualification completely out of their own hands? I kind of hope there's some kind of scenario where what you said turns out to be true in some kind of self-schadenfreude but I can't see any outcome where it suits Pats to not compete in the game in order to gain an advantage in the race for Europe. Other than trying not to injure a Derry player... maybe..?Quote:
Originally Posted by A N Mouse
On reflection I hope there's no self-schadenfreude, given Derry's semi final opposition.
Look once again very little thought went into the original comment as it wasn't a prediction just pondering how the results could get any weirder. And minimal thought went in arriving at a scenario. The point is the results required between now and the end of the month for something like that to be even possible.Quote:
Originally Posted by bohsmug
If you insist on making it make sense then maybe reread it, as pat's are in third in the hypothetical. So let try and contrive that.
Shels 58pts (1w1d)
Derry 56pts (2w1l)
Pats 53pts (2w)
Rovers 51pts(2d)
Galway 50pts (1d1l)
Pats can win the league from here, but would still be behind Derry on gd if Derry win last match. Pats could beat Derry and still finish 4th, possibly ahead of Derry. A draw guarantees Derry second, on gd, and pats gd at that point would keep them third going into last match.
Course the thing to do is beat Derry and hope their last game is a draw.
Now is this scenario possible? Yeah. Is it probable? No, but maybe stick 10euro on Dundalk tonight as this season has been a roller coaster, and nobody seems to want to win it.
Back in reality. Shels need three wins, Derry need four. Neither of those seem likely, so it's there for anyone in to half the table. We'll know more on Sunday.
And Derry's season is either going for double or hanging on for second after the two bohs games
Ahhh I don't care but no, that doesn't make any sense. As you've said Pat's can win the league from there. So it would be nuts. I've also never known someone to play a weakened team specifically for a draw.Quote:
Originally Posted by A N Mouse
A draw with Derry would also put them in serious danger of Galway catching them and Pats falling to 5th, potentially only 1 point ahead of Galway going into the last game. Whereas a win would put them 3 - 6 points ahead of Galway going into the last game with a minimum of 6 goals better goal difference.
I’ll be sticking my tenner on a draw, I’ve a feeling Galway will be fielding a weakened team in order to get a draw tonight to help their chances of winning the league by lulling the teams above them into a false sense of security that Galway are out of the title race ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by A N Mouse
You seem to want this to make sense?Quote:
Originally Posted by bohsmug
If it's enlightenment you want stick a score on Dundalk the night. And en-lightenment should be achieved by about nine thirty.
The games since I posted the original prediction have told us a lot - most particularly about the collapse of Shels. It also looks as if we may be heading for an incredible final day with four contenders still standing and the title switching between all four over the course of the evening.
It’s to Shels’ credit how much they punched above their weight this season but two points in the last five games tells its own story. At a push they may win one of the home games against Waterford and Drogs but to win both would be some turnaround in their current form. I’d give them 58 points with a game to go and that’s probably generous.
Derry should win the next two at home to Bohs and Sligo but I expect they’ll lose in Richmond and draw in Oriel to give them 57 with a game to go.
Hoops won’t take more than 4 points from trips to Drogheda and Dundalk giving them 56 with a game to go.
On Pats’ recent results I’d expect wins in Dalymount and at home to Galway and Derry giving them 56 with a game to go.
The above results will leave Galway and Sligo at maximums of 53 with a game to go - and only one of them can make that as they play each other. So they’ll be out of contention for Europe.
So with a game to go it could be
Shels 58 (GD around 10)
Derry 57 (GD around 18)
Hoops 56 (GD around 13)
Pats 56 (GD around 13)
Pats at Sligo and Hoops at home to Waterford should both end up on 59 and either could pip the other on GD.
Derry or Shels will win the league by winning the game in the Brandywell and I can’t see that being Shels. If Shels lose they’ll finish 4th and will miss out on Europe if Drogs win the Cup.
It then gets truly epic if they are drawing in the Brandywell while Pats and Hoops are winning their games, as one of those may end up Champions on GD.
Not saying it’s going to happen but it becomes more plausible by the week. The FAI better make sure they have versions of the trophy to send to three different grounds!