Premier & First Division Predictions - 2024

Early days yet, but best guess:

Premier Division

1. Shamrock Rovers
2. St Pat's Ath
3. Derry City
4. Shelbourne
5. Dundalk
6. Drogheda United
7. Bohemians
8. Waterford
9. Sligo Rovers
10. Galway United

First Division

1. Cork City
2. UCD
3. Wexford
4. Bray Wanderers
5. Finn Harps
6. Athlone Town
7. Cobh Ramblers
8. Longford Town
9. Treaty United
10. Kerry

FAI Cup: St Pat's
Top Scorer: Keating
First Manager Gone: Devine

Hard to guess for sure when some clubs are still building squads. Top three in Premier seems fairly nailed on, unless someone springs a big surprise. It's just a matter what way the three finish in their own mini league.

I think Dundalk and Drogheda will both be fairly safe mid table. Dundalk quietly going about some okay business, and they have a few decent young players coming through, and I think they'll be okay in mid table. Drogheda have enough experience about them to have another safe mid table season as well.

It's the bottom four where it'll be really interesting this year. I've always maintained Bohs will go nowhere under Devine, and a poor start to the season before they finally get rid of him could be the difference in a mid-table position, or playing catch up from the get go.

I think Waterford will do enough to stay up, Sligo are going to struggle, and I don't think Galway have strengthened enough, and given the backing they have from the comers, it could be a big mistake to put their faith in a First Division winning side, along with a few fairly underwhelming signings.

First Division is anyones guess. UCD and Cork should be best equipped to finish top two. UCD have held on to the majority of their squad, will inevitably be bringing in some of the top under-19 prospects on scholarships, and the signing of Ronan Finn is massive. Cork may have lost a few players, but they've signed very well. They will probably win the league at a canter really.

I think any one of the next six or seven teams could finish in the playoff places. There's no massive standout team, Wexford are quietly going about their business without any fuss and will be good, and while Bray have lost some experienced heads, they've signed well and will always be there or there abouts. The basket case nature of how the club is run in the background could be a big issue again though and might end up playing its part on the pitch.

From a Harps perspective, we had an unexpectedly brutal season last year, but showed some glimmers of hope. Murphy will be a hell of a lot more pragmatic in his approach than Rogers, and has signed very well in areas we really needed a bit of a bump. Keeping hold of Ryan Flood is huge and could well be the difference, fingers crossed that gets sorted and over the line asap as his goals could be the difference in getting to a playoff spot.

With the cost of housing out in the West of Ireland by comparison to Dublin and the money the Comars have i would be very dissapointed if i was a Galway fan and they dont add to the squad when the UK window closes in the next couple of days. If i was a young free and single UK professional and was offered a decent contract in Galway id be jumping at it.
As the song says............
You know, she played the fiddle in an Irish band
But she fell in love with an English man
Kissed her on the neck and then I took her by the hand
Said, "Baby, I just want to dance"
With my pretty little Galway Girl
You're my pretty little Galway Girl

Quote:

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Originally Posted by sbgawa

With the cost of housing out in the West of Ireland by comparison to Dublin and the money the Comars have i would be very dissapointed if i was a Galway fan and they dont add to the squad when the UK window closes in the next couple of days. If i was a young free and single UK professional and was offered a decent contract in Galway id be jumping at it.
As the song says............
You know, she played the fiddle in an Irish band
But she fell in love with an English man
Kissed her on the neck and then I took her by the hand
Said, "Baby, I just want to dance"
With my pretty little Galway Girl
You're my pretty little Galway Girl

---

You have no idea how close I was to reporting this post.

Premier Division:
1. Shamrock Rovers
2. Derry City
3. St Pats
4. Shelbourne
5. Bohemians
6. Galway
7. Dundalk
8. Sligo
9. Waterford
10. Drogheda

First Division:
1. Cork
2. UCD
3. Wexford
4. Athlone
5. Bray
6. Finn Harps
7. Cobh
8. Treaty
9. Longford
10. Kerry

Kerry left a lot of points behind them last year. They'll want to improve on that this year.

Not often you will hear of a Dundalk fan standing up for our county cousins, but you are off your rocker if you think Drogs will finish bottom. Its an extremely difficult place to go and get a result, plus they are dogged in their style of play, they should be well clear of danger.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by oriel

Interesting analysis, Hoban might get better service in Derry, but he'll have D Kelly again whom he had last season, so a lot will need to change. He was abs brutal in 3 of the 4 games in Europe too last season, esp away in Gibraltar (I was at it to see) and Iceland (watched horror show on tv). Hopefully his replacement works out, looks decent, this is the guy, anyway time will tell.

Interesting analysis, Hoban might get better service in Derry, but he'll have D Kelly again whom he had last season, so a lot will need to change. He was abs brutal in 3 of the 4 games in Europe too last season, esp away in Gibraltar (I was at it to see) and Iceland (watched horror show on tv).

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You can say that again.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by oriel

Not often you will hear of a Dundalk fan standing up for our county cousins, but you are off your rocker if you think Drogs will finish bottom. Its an extremely difficult place to go and get a result, plus they are dogged in their style of play, they should be well clear of danger.

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Drogheda are dogged alright. I'm backing Waterford for at least another playoff and Galway for 6th. Same top 4 as last year. Bohs up one. Dundalk, Sligo and Drogheda in that order of the remaining 3, with Waterford in the playoffs.

Premier Division

1. Shamrock Rovers
2. St Pat's
3. Derry City
4. Shelbourne
5. Dundalk
6. Bohemians
7. Drogheda United
8. Galway United
9. Waterford
10. Sligo Rovers


First Division

1. Cork City
2. UCD


FAI Cup: Derry
Top Scorer:
First Manager Gone: Russell

Premier Division

1. Shamrock Rovers ( by a 10 point margin)

2. St Pat's
3. Derry City
4. Bohs
5. Shels
6. Dundalk
7. Sligo
8. Drogheda
9. Galway
10.Waterford

FAI Cup Rovers
Top scorer Kenny
First Manager sacked Stephen O’Donnell

Premier Division

1. Shamrock Rovers
2. Derry
3. St Pat's
4. Shelbourne
5. Bohs
6. Drogheda
7. Galway United
8. Waterford
9. Dundalk
10. Sligo Rovers


First Division

1. Cork City
2. Longford
3. Wexford
4. Bray
5. Treaty
6. UCD
7. Athlone
8. Finn Harps
9. Cobh
10. Kerry



FAI Cup: Drogheda
Top Scorer: Johnny Kenny
First Manager Gone: O'Donnell



I think Sligo look in a very bad state at the moment and finished the season poorly last year with pressure on John Russell from the off. I've backed Stephen O'Donnell to be the first manager gone - maybe Dundalk won't be in a position to get rid of him but a lot of their signings are really unknown, which could be a good or a bad thing. Daryl Horgan isn't going to win matches on his own, he showed flashes of his old form last season but just flashes. The other experienced players in the team like Mountney, Andy Boyle and the lad from Athlone whose name escapes me are all injury prone.

Other than the top 4 from last season being the top 4 this season and Sligo finishing bottom I'd say the other 5 could finish in any order. We'll be absolutely awful to watch, we'll be ultra conservative and looking to score from set pieces and I could definitely see us hitting a bad patch in the middle of the season and going weeks without scoring. It's how we deal with a run of bad form that will determine if we finish 9th or as high as 5th.

Division 1 should be a cake walk for Cork, like it was for us last season. I think Cobh will drop like a stone this season. Maybe I'm wrong but I think Longford will have a good season again. They were putting in some decent performances towards the end of last season and Hendo is a great man in the Division.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by JC_GUFC

Premier Division

1. Shamrock Rovers
2. Derry
3. St Pat's
4. Shelbourne
5. Bohs
6. Drogheda
7. Galway United
8. Waterford
9. Dundalk
10. Sligo Rovers


First Division

1. Cork City
2. Longford
3. Wexford
4. Bray
5. Treaty
6. UCD
7. Athlone
8. Finn Harps
9. Cobh
10. Kerry



FAI Cup: Drogheda
Top Scorer: Johnny Kenny
First Manager Gone: O'Donnell



I think Sligo look in a very bad state at the moment and finished the season poorly last year with pressure on John Russell from the off. I've backed Stephen O'Donnell to be the first manager gone - maybe Dundalk won't be in a position to get rid of him but a lot of their signings are really unknown, which could be a good or a bad thing. Daryl Horgan isn't going to win matches on his own, he showed flashes of his old form last season but just flashes. The other experienced players in the team like Mountney, Andy Boyle and the lad from Athlone whose name escapes me are all injury prone.

Other than the top 4 from last season being the top 4 this season and Sligo finishing bottom I'd say the other 5 could finish in any order. We'll be absolutely awful to watch, we'll be ultra conservative and looking to score from set pieces and I could definitely see us hitting a bad patch in the middle of the season and going weeks without scoring. It's how we deal with a run of bad form that will determine if we finish 9th or as high as 5th.

Division 1 should be a cake walk for Cork, like it was for us last season. I think Cobh will drop like a stone this season. Maybe I'm wrong but I think Longford will have a good season again. They were putting in some decent performances towards the end of last season and Hendo is a great man in the Division.

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Robbie Benson, and you are not wrong on injuries on all 3, Mountney for one, don't even start me, he asked the club not to do the usual 'signed for 2024' thing, he hardly kicked a ball last year.

1. Rovers - Believe they'll win it relatively comfortably this time around through sheer consistency as much as anything else. Don't necessarily think they've improved a huge amount, but they may get a bit luckier with injuries this go around and if nothing else I wouldn't expect them to allow themselves to be as sloppy as they were at times last season.

2. Derry - Think they're still clearly the best-placed side to challenge Rovers, but they've flattered to deceive far too often for me to expect them to put it all together. Great side on paper but you'd still expect struggles with injuries due to how prone some key members of the squad are to them, as well as the pitch at the Brandywell and the occasional tendency to drop silly points. Would fancy them against anyone in a one-off game mind so could easily see another cup win.

3. Pats - Can't see us challenging as some do, though still have hopes for a strong season. Think we occupy a middle ground of having more individual quality than the sides below, but not enough depth to it to really push those above. Some impressive impressive business has been done that addressed obvious issues from last term, and if Daly is as good a coach as he seemed last season then having him from the get-go this time could prove a big difference maker.

4. Shels - Not particularly enamoured by all of the signings they've made, Moylan was excellent and losing that kind of quality at the top end of the pitch will hinder them from really pushing on imo. I do think that they're one of the best - if not the best - coached sides in the league though and that will balance things out. They've a pretty big squad of solid players and I can see them just being more consistent than any other side competing for the European spots and remaining tough to beat whilst others drop silly points.

5. Bohs - Always feel like I overrate Bohs, but as much as they've had a bit of a mare in pre-season and still have some work to do, a lot of the existing squad is pretty good and can give a game to anyone in the league. It just hasn't been properly built upon, and I'm sceptical of the Estonian-based recruitment given how hit and miss its been elsewhere in the league. Think it'll be a season of high highs and low lows, probably with a managerial change at some point too, but they've still got enough quality to finish above the rest of the league, or more to the point not have them capatalise on any turbulence.

6. Dundalk - Hard to call with them, can't see them finishing above any team listed above but would give them the benefit of doubt over the rest. A lot of reliance on down the league pyramid in Scotland for incomings, where it'd be generous to say SOD and Cregg have had mixed success with previously. Mahon and High look like good pick-ups though, and already in place is a good coach and some quality in the likes of Davies etc, so I don't think they'll be in trouble but can only see it being an underwhelming one overall.

7. Drogs - From what I've seen and heard in pre-season I think they could end up being almost like a better version of Galway. Keeley and Rooney are tough losses, but I think they'll play in a solid, pragmatic manner and Pierrot will take to the league and be an important focal point for them to have a similar season to the last few.

8. Waterford - Thought they've had a bad habit of playing to the level of the opposition for much of their time in the First Division, but certain games like the playoff showed they've some talent there capable at this level, and they've signed some solid if unspectacular players that should settle quickly.

9. Galway - Feels odd putting them this low as I like a lot about them, which probably speaks to there being a more competitive league overall this season. Won't be a fun game for anyone but I can't see that they've added enough quality to elevate themselves beyond that sort of team.

10. Sligo - More than any other shout I sense this has the scope to make me look stupid, but I just have a bad feeling about them. McGinty is a great signing and Chapman looks like he'll be handy too, but the squad has been threadbare until the very recent unknowns coming in from the UK and in Mahon they've already gotten a key figure missing for a while before we've even started. I can look at a potential starting eleven of theirs one minute and think it looks decent, but on the other hand there's a real lack of both goals and general depth to the squad. More than anything I think what's influencing me is at this end of the table you've got a relatively sturdy Drogheda and two promoted sides full of optimism, whilst Sligo seem to be on the opposite trajectory. Would like to be wrong on this one though.


First Division:

1. Cork
2. Wexford
3. Bray
4. UCD
5. Longford
6. Harps
7. Athone
8. Cobh
9. Treaty
10. Kerry

FAI Cup: Derry
Top scorer: Keating (speaking it into existence)
First manager gone: Devine

I can't remember being a season less clear, for the most part, than this one. It seems like half the Premier hasn't put a full squad together yet, and equally that they're only a couple of injuries away from a crisis. And I've no idea about the first.

I'll go -

Premier Division
1) Rovers. I don't see that the others have done enough to catch up, but equally I don't see that Pohls/McEneff for Mannus/Finn (which seems effectively what their transfer activity has amounted to) is enough to address their recent European shortcomings.
2) Derry. Them or Pat's have the advantage of regular Euro money, but I think Derry with Hoban and Whelan as new signings on 2023 will give them an edge over Pat's. (Whelan's not a new signing obviously, but if he can get fit then he'd as good as be one, seeing as he managed three sub games last season)
3) Pat's
4) Galway. Let's go mad. The middle standings seem to be in a bit of crisis this year (thinking Bohs/Dundalk); it's a good year for someone to sneak up on the rails. 94 points and two Cup hammerings of Premier sides; I think people are underestimating them.
5) Shels. Duffer did well last year and their squad seems to have been reasonably settled over pre-season.
6) Dundalk. I know nothing about the players they've signed (bar Dara Keane!) Still seem a little bit ahead of Bohs/Drogheda/Waterford/Sligo though.
7) Bohs. Didn't have a great second half to last season, and don't seem to have replaced Afolabi or Talbot.
8) Drogheda. Probably exceeded expectations last year, but even then they were a long way off Bohs (17 points). Not sure enough has happened for them to make that up.
9) Sligo. Ed McGinty could be a big late signing (even if it's a blow for the LoI that he's flopped in England)
10) Waterford. When they were bad last season they were really bad, and they won't have Coughlan's goals to help them. The Fleetwood link could yet spring a surprise signing though (or even Tommy Lonergan)

First Division
Cork have to win. Or at least if they don't win it, serious questions have to be asked about what the hell is going on down there. UCD should be in the play-offs; Brennan and Finn is an exceptional First Division midfield. Kerry look like they're settling in for last again, albeit with more points than last year. The rest I have absolutely no idea about.

Interesting analysis Stu and also Jack B before, both making very fair points about most of the teams strengths.

But............That's mental re Galway, its a huge step up to PD week in week out v FD, yes they hammered Dundalk in the cup but that was widely accepted as one of our worst displays in 20 years. However I don't see their quality in signings to be able to compete, they will def stay up, but I don't see anything other than lower half.

Two positions standing out to me seem to be 3rd is nailed on for Pats, and poor Sligo seem to be a lot of peoples favourites for the dreaded 10th spot.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by oriel

But............That's mental re Galway, its a huge step up to PD week in week out v FD, yes they hammered Dundalk in the cup but that was widely accepted as one of our worst displays in 20 years. However I don't see their quality in signings to be able to compete, they will def stay up, but I don't see anything other than lower half.

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Yeah, I'm going wild for sure. I'm basing it really on seeing the middle range just dropping backwards. Bohs have weakened it seems, Dundalk are cobbling together a squad and we've no real idea how the lower-league Scots will do. Promotion is a big step up for sure, but I don't think anyone who romped the First (crap and all as it was last year) has been in a relegation fight the following year for quite a while.

Putting them below Waterford, as some have done, seems strange to me given the 25 point gap last year and Waterford losing Coughlan. That said, based on the 30 years I've been watching games, if anyone can underachieve in the LoI, it's Galway...

Division One
Obviously Cork are the hot favourites but if they leave the door open, Wexford just might have a sniff. Like the look of the Bray defence and UCD are usually there or thereabouts:-

Wexford
Cork
Bray
UCD
Harps
Longford
Athlone
Cobh
Treaty
Kerry

Womens National League
By far the most open of the three leagues and a good case can be made for any of the top five below. Clubs from the east coast (Dublin/Wexford) have monopolised the WNL since its inception but this might be the time for another geography to take the spoils. I’ve put Wexford in at sixth place as it’s a definite season of transition:-

Athlone
Shelbourne
Peamount
Shamrock Rovers
Galway
Wexford
Bohs
DLR
Treaty
Sligo
Cork

Premier Division
Can’t see past Shamrock Rovers:-

Shamrock Rovers
Derry
Pats
Shelbourne
Bohs
Dundalk
Galway
Drogheda
Sligo
Waterford

Quote:

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Originally Posted by pineapple stu

I can't remember being a season less clear, for the most part, than this one. It seems like half the Premier hasn't put a full squad together yet, and equally that they're only a couple of injuries away from a crisis. And I've no idea about the first.

I'll go -

Premier Division
1) Rovers. I don't see that the others have done enough to catch up, but equally I don't see that Pohls/McEneff for Mannus/Finn (which seems effectively what their transfer activity has amounted to) is enough to address their recent European shortcomings.
2) Derry. Them or Pat's have the advantage of regular Euro money, but I think Derry with Hoban and Whelan as new signings on 2023 will give them an edge over Pat's. (Whelan's not a new signing obviously, but if he can get fit then he'd as good as be one, seeing as he managed three sub games last season)
3) Pat's
4) Galway. Let's go mad. The middle standings seem to be in a bit of crisis this year (thinking Bohs/Dundalk); it's a good year for someone to sneak up on the rails. 94 points and two Cup hammerings of Premier sides; I think people are underestimating them.
5) Shels. Duffer did well last year and their squad seems to have been reasonably settled over pre-season.
6) Dundalk. I know nothing about the players they've signed (bar Dara Keane!) Still seem a little bit ahead of Bohs/Drogheda/Waterford/Sligo though.
7) Bohs. Didn't have a great second half to last season, and don't seem to have replaced Afolabi or Talbot.
8) Drogheda. Probably exceeded expectations last year, but even then they were a long way off Bohs (17 points). Not sure enough has happened for them to make that up.
9) Sligo. Ed McGinty could be a big late signing (even if it's a blow for the LoI that he's flopped in England)
10) Waterford. When they were bad last season they were really bad, and they won't have Coughlan's goals to help them. The Fleetwood link could yet spring a surprise signing though (or even Tommy Lonergan)

First Division
Cork have to win. Or at least if they don't win it, serious questions have to be asked about what the hell is going on down there. UCD should be in the play-offs; Brennan and Finn is an exceptional First Division midfield. Kerry look like they're settling in for last again, albeit with more points than last year. The rest I have absolutely no idea about.

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Fair analysis Stu, i still think my earlier prediction that Dundalk would sign 3 or 4 players to replace Hoban and be net better is shaping up well.

On Rovers Pohls/McEneff for Manus Finn is a bit harsh as Darragh Burns is also in and is apparantly flying in every sense of the word.
As important for European advancement is luck with injuries. Manus missed the European games last year with a hand injury and Clarke and Farrugia were also out. a half fit Jack B played 1 game if i remember right. We look so differentr with the pace in the side provided by Clarke and Farrugia on the wings and i assume thats where Burns will be playing as well.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by pineapple stu

if anyone can underachieve in the LoI, it's Galway...

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Spoken like you lived it like the rest of us!

Over the last 8 seasons only once did the coming up Champions finish bottom, that was UCD. Three times they finished 9th, three times 7th and Limerick finished 4th.

UCD were firm favourites for 10th last year. The battle for the top 8 was between Drogheda, Sligo and Cork. The promotion of Galway and Waterford puts more pressure on Drogheda and Sligo. The battle for the top 8 should be more intense this year.
Dundalk 5th and Bohemians 6th went into the final day in the hunt for a top 4 finish. Have Dundalk and Bohemians done enough business in the off season to get into the top 4? Will any of them fall back?
My wild prediction is for Galway to finish above Dundalk but behind Bohemians. That's 5th, 6th and 7th.
I think Waterford can do enough to get at least a playoff. Sligo or Drogheda finishing 10th in that scenario. Sligo have been in the Premier Division since 2006. In a battle for the top 8, my prediction is Sligo 8th and Waterford 9th.

Bar the top 2/3 the only other consistant prediction is Sligo bing in real trouble. I'd agree tbh but Ive always felt in the past that Sligo are masters of being the dark horse and when flying well below radar is when when they are most dangerous. It'll certainly be interesting to see how things pan out in that regard, they are really sticking by Russell. If they are as poor as the predictions, based on signings in, the question is why they wouldnt have a more competative budget. Its straight forward on why Dundalk have gone backwards, Bohs have other priorities, Drogheda p/t, Galway and Waterford as promted sides need to adjust but whats the issue at Sligo? I do think Dundalk are gambling on unknowns, player fitness but it could work out better than we think - would I take 7th place now? Very very tempting!