For Ireland to make the Round of 16...

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Originally Posted by IsMiseSean

The football experts over at Balls.ie have tweeted 'Not good news for Ireland, as Albania take the lead'.
Go home lads, you're drunk.
https://twitter.com/ballsdotie/statu...16801556926464

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The only scenario where they think it might be ideal is if we were to finish third on two points, I'm guessing, but even if that was to happen, it's unlikely two points would be enough for us to progress. Even if there were a number of other third-place teams with two points, our goal difference would do us no favours either as it would remain at -3 if we draw with Italy. Romania's would be -1 if they draw this game against Albania, so they'd be ahead of us anyway.

Edit: Romania lost anyway.

If Albania & Romania had drawn, I think it still would have been impossible for us to qualify on 2 points because of our -3 GD.

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Originally Posted by Lionel Ritchie

Albania just hit the front against Romania. The stars are aligning. I can feel it in my dicky knee. I fully agree with point E as well. Italy or no, if you can't beat a team with no skin in it you deserve to go home.

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Ya, everything will probably go in our favour...everything except for us doing the business.

Result 1 has gone our way. Thank you Albania! 2 points was never going to be enough for us with a goal difference of -3. Usually at least 3 points are need with a win and a draw always have being enough so far.

Result 2 that we need is the old enemy England to beat Slovakia tonight. That will guarantee that a win of any kind on Wednesday night will guarantee qualification to take on France or Spain.

Sometimes in sport when you suffer a setback, a result can come in from somewhere to lift spirits. The players are naturally down after Saturday. If they get word tonight that a win over Italy will do, it should help lift spirits in the camp and set focus on what's required. It will be good to have our destiny in the tournament back in our own hands.

If England win tonight a 1 goal defeat for NIR puts them into the L16 I think.

Yes I think it will be clearer tonight.

If England win as expected then N. Ireland (Group C) is likely to be a best placed third (if you assume that they more or less match Slovakia's margin of defeat with a goal to spare).
I also think that if Portugal get at least a point then there is no way that Group F won't take another best third.
Then assume (as we have to) that Ireland win then we will also be a best place third.

That gives C,E and F. With the last best placed 3rd probably going to Czech (D) if they beat Turkey - otherwise Slovakia (B) might hold on.

I'm kind of assuming no massive swing in goal differences, its been a low scoring tournament so far, and also considering the last round of games can be quite cagey (eg last night 1 goal in 2 games).

So if my assumptions hold (England win, Portugal at least 1 point, no hammerings, Ireland win) then CDEF gives us Spain or Croatia in the Round of 16 but if Czech slip then BCEF gives us France (would also see England get N.I. by the way).

I know we have to win and that is all that really matters, but this analysis kind of keeps the interest up for the next couple of days ....

I'd say the real-world odds are very much that 3rd place in our group will be max 2 points.

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Originally Posted by Stuttgart88

I'd say the real-world odds are very much that 3rd place in our group will be max 2 points.

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We are 9/4 to win which implies about 30% chance we win or 70% chance we don't.

Sweden are 4/1 which implies about 20% chance they win and 80% chance they don't.

Probability that both DONT win is 0.7 * 0.8 = 0.56.

So you're about right, at 56% chance it's more likely that both teams will finish on two points or less. But that's not worth thinking about, I think with our goal difference that it's impossible to qualify on 2 points? Most 3rd placed teams already have 3 points except Portugal and Czech. Czech if they lose Turkey will be third, if they draw their goal difference can't disimprove - so that's no good.

I honestly fancy our chances to win the match. We are playing for our lives, Italy have nothing to play for - we should win or as ppl have said we don't deserve our place in the competition any way.

The group F winner would be nice, that is a weak group, we could take them. I hope if we go a goal up we don't settle fro 1-0 against Italy, we should go gung-ho to try and get the 3-0.

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Originally Posted by Morbo

The group F winner would be nice, that is a weak group, we could take them. I hope if we go a goal up we don't settle fro 1-0 against Italy, we should go gung-ho to try and get the 3-0.

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https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com...0e257300b4.jpg

...though any win will do nicely thanks.

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Originally Posted by Morbo

The group F winner would be nice, that is a weak group, we could take them. I hope if we go a goal up we don't settle fro 1-0 against Italy, we should go gung-ho to try and get the 3-0.

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I've enjoyed watching Portugal in the tournament so far. I think they have played some of the best football. Just because they've drawn the first two games, it doesn't mean they won't click into some form in the knockout stages if they get that far.

http://www.irishtimes.com/sport/andy...2016-1.2459018

It doesn't make much of a difference to Ireland as we can't win the group but the article above sets out unfairness in the tournament set-up.

Essentially group winners paths to the semi-final are as follows:
Winner A: CDE3 - B2/F2
Winner B: ACD3 - F1/E2
Winner C: ABF3 - E1/D2
Winner D: BEF3 - A2/C2
Winner E: D2 - C1/ABF3
Winner F: E2 - B1/ACD3

Winners A and D paths to the semi-finals are: 3rd place and runners-up.
Winners B and C paths to the semi-finals are: 3rd place and group winners.
Winners E and F paths to the semi-finals are: runners-up and group winners.

Of the group winners, A and D would seem to have an easier semi-final route while E and F winners will have a tougher task ahead of them. A more evenly balanced semi-final route would have been:

Winners A, B, C and D semi-final route: 3rd place and group winners.
Winners E and F semi-final route: group runners-up and group runners-up.

Wanting England to win is hard work

The old enemy didn't help us. The point should see Slovakia into the last 16 as one of the best 3rd placed teams.

Over to Germany next. We need them to beat N Ireland tomorrow.

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Originally Posted by legendz

The old enemy didn't help us. The point should see Slovakia into the last 16 as one of the best 3rd placed teams.

Over to Germany next. We need them to beat N Ireland tomorrow.

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And the result for Slovakia tonight will make N. Ireland even more desperate for a draw.

I figured if we were going down that we may as well take England with us. With Wales coasting I figured that a Slovakia victory would soothe my seemingly inevitable disappointment as England squirm in 3rd. But alas they do the worst possible thing and bloody draw, so they still go through and knacker us up. GAH!

Now for Germany to tank the North. That'd be nice.

Or Turkey to beat or draw the Czech Republic would be sufficient as well.

Yeah, but I want this to be determined asap.

The Germans are angry after criticism from Ballack. The false 9 didn't work against Poland so Muller and/or Gomez may be given a more orthodox role.

There's a strong possibility if we get through, we'll take on France on Sunday with the winner taking on the winner of the England game.

I'd bite your hand off for that right now.

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Originally Posted by legendz

I've enjoyed watching Portugal in the tournament so far. I think they have played some of the best football. Just because they've drawn the first two games, it doesn't mean they won't click into some form in the knockout stages if they get that far.

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They are nice to watch but they are underachieving choke artists, always have been, went out in the group stage 2 years ago, couldn't win the final in their own backyard against Greece. Maybe if they got to the knockouts they might play well for a game or 2 but they won't win it.