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As I outlined earlier, if Labour do really well, and FF do really badly, there is the possibility of a Labour lead Labour-FF coalition. If it meant Labour as the main party he'd be mad to rule it out - FF will do anything to cling to power so would cave on pretty much everything Labour wanted whilst claiming they were centre left the whole time anyway. It's a different ball game from the last election.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ringo
I can't see anyway that FF would go into government as a junior partner. They would choose opposition before that happens.
Well the whole point of FF is to be in power, so I wouldn't rule it out peteQuote:
Originally Posted by pete
Labour can't rule out going into power with FF or they're effectively in bed with FG again and risk what happened at the last election happening again.
It's a tricky situation, and they may well end up damned whatever they do.
Clearly there is a lot of anti-FF feelings around & voters are looking for someone else to give their vote. If this was a General Election could a serious own goal by Labour as people may not want to vote for them if it returns FF to power.
Whether they go for official pack or not I don't see any option but for FG/Labour agreement in advance of next General Election. No one can afford to campaign with chance they would put FF back into power.
Gilmore will never be Taoiseach, as there has rarely, if ever been a Labour Taoiseach. He would be propping up FG or FF if he was in government.Quote:
Originally Posted by Macy
The local elections imo, have always been joke elections. They're a chance for the electorate to jab a few punches at FF, instead of landing knock-out blows. If we really want to hurt FF, Lisbon in the Autumn is the time to do it.
Except that wouldn't just be a blow to FF now, would it?Quote:
Originally Posted by mypost
No, but if you want to hurt them, that's when to do it.
Even if they don't get a vote in the local elections, they'll still be in power in September. The by-election defeats wouldn't hurt them as they'd still have the majority. With the Europeans, they can ship someone off to Brussels if necessary.
Getting a grilling from Merkel and Sarkosy again, wouldn't go down well.
Except I do not vote to hurt people I vote for whatever I think is best for myself my family and for the country.Quote:
Originally Posted by mypost
ah neil - as much as i love your posts - please:confused:Quote:
Originally Posted by NeilMcD
thats not the irish way - hurt the ff bassterds -
It depends on how people vote. Basically, it always comes down to how the numbers stack up post election. Even if Labour doesn’t beat FF, it could be the price for coalition. See Dodge's post to see why that could still happen.Quote:
Originally Posted by mypost
Total rubbish, local elections do affect people, but even then if they get decimated then it does help get FF out. With two lost Bye elections, and a really poor result, the independents, Greens (ministerial pensions achieved) and some back benchers will really start to see they have to be the ones seen to pull the house of cards down first.Quote:
Originally Posted by mypost
Voting No to Lisbon would have little effect, as all the main parties will be supporting a Yes vote, so where exactly will the pressure come from?
Seriously I have never voted for FF in my life but my motivation was not to hurt them.Quote:
Originally Posted by bennocelt
It'll never happen.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dodge
FF will do bad in locals & european elections , They won't win either bye election( governments never do).After June there will be a heave against Cowan, Dermot Ahern becomes leader. New Cabinet. FF won't do as bad in the next general election as every thinks. Think Inda will drop the ball again.
Its difficult to see how Labour could becme the biggest party in a coaltion. Last election:
FF - 78
FG - 51.
Lab - 20.
Labour would have to double their seats & see FF lose half theirs for Gilmore to lead a Lab/FF government. For a Lab/FG government FG would need to lose seats which seems very unlikely.
I know it doesn't necessarily translate proportionally into seats, but you do realise that on these figures the Labour vote has doubled since the last general election and the FF vote has halved since the last general election, don't you?Quote:
Originally Posted by pete
FF were decimated in the locals in 2004, but after going away for the long snooze, were still in power when they returned, and they got back in in the general 2 years ago.Quote:
Originally Posted by Macy
Basically, their "meltdown" will be a story for the journos to run with it for a few weeks, until the recess starts. It will die down after it.
I don't advocate hitting the government for hitting's sake, but if you want to land a big blow of punches, Lisbon is the time to do it. Everything else they can absorb. After all, Cowen is only interested in satisfying international investors with his policies, it's not looking after the people he's responsible for, i.e. us. His image abroad is what bothers him, not at home.
http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0515/labour.html
Gilmore falls into the trap. Were back to FG & Labour as the alternative.Quote:
Mr Gilmore stressed that the Labour Party was different from both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, but he did not rule out entering into a Programme of Government with Fine Gael in the future.
There is really no other alternative.
True, but now they'll have to jusify difference in policy & prove that they can work together as a potential government.
Better now than after the election, like the lying bags of crap in the Greens.