Interesting site here if you wish to keep track of the ever complicated Democratic Primaries.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...mary-forecast/
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Interesting site here if you wish to keep track of the ever complicated Democratic Primaries.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...mary-forecast/
I think part of what I said to Stu was explaining that yes, given how a lot of us see Trump, it is difficult for us to fathom how any decent, conscientious person could defend him. And sure, it's fair to ask that of his defenders - do they just not see what we see? Or is it just not a big deal to them? But to say Stu's actions are disgusting was beyond what I think should be acceptable on this site - what are we? YBIG? (I don't go to YBIG, but I've heard it's a toxic post-apocalyptic wasteland)Quote:
Originally Posted by Real ale Madrid
After the abandonment of the Kurds, I actually wasn't in the mood for debating on this thread for a while.Quote:
Originally Posted by Real ale Madrid
There's loads of weirdos and racists and homophobes and criminals out there. The problem is that this one has the approval of a huge number of Americans.Quote:
Originally Posted by osarusan
America is broken.
After South Carolina, Biden is back in it, Buttigieg is out of the race (along with Tom Steyer, who I didn't even know was in the race). Sanders take a hit for the first time, and Warren fails to do much, but seems to have targeted the Super Tuesday states more than South Carolina.
Klobuchar drops out, endorses Biden, as does Buttigieg and Beto O'Rourke.
The Anti-Bernie machine is kicking into action.
My thought exactly. Spite endorsements.
I see Biden has raced ahead in the FiveThirtyEight Projection as a result ( well its actually made "No majority" the outright leader ).
Bit of desperation about the whole thing - if Bernie has a good night tonight they don't have many cards left to play.
Warren must be close to dropping out now, terrible results for her, leaving just Biden and Sanders. I wonder will Warren endorse Sanders after the sniping she did at him during the campaign.
Narrator: "Bernie didn't have a good night".Quote:
Originally Posted by Real ale Madrid
I suspect that this is Sanders' last chance at this stage - can't see her doing it myself in time - although losing Mass. last night was surely the final nail.Quote:
Originally Posted by osarusan
Biden won in States he didn't even canvass in. I guess Bernie is just too scary for your average American.Quote:
Originally Posted by backstothewall
Biden was 2/1 on Sunday to win the nomination - 2/7 today.
T-shirt idea for Bloomberg :
"I spent $500m and all I got was a lousy Delegate from American Samoa"
Biden wins 4 of the 5 states voting yesterday, to go well ahead in the delegates count - 809 to 654.
It would be good if Sanders avoided a repeat of the last primary cycle and didn't drag this out. Not that I have any great appreciation for Biden of course, but if the Dems actually want to beat Trump and not just posture, they need to bring a de facto end to the ridiculous clownshow that is their nomination process.
It feels like the Democrats are going for TrumpLite if they do end up plumping for Biden.
He's certainly been quite feisty on the campaign trail, calling one member of the public a fat slob and describing another as being, "full of ----" the other day. He's got a bit of a chequered history (on things like segregation, Iraq war, elements of nepotism) and the debates could get very ugly as November approaches.
If he does defeat Trump he'll be the oldest president ever to take office. And will be older on his inauguration than Reagan was when he left office. He'll be 82 if he goes for a second term in 2024 and if he sees that second term through he'll be 86 when he leaves office in 2028.
I really dislike Biden, but he'll be better than Trump. The risk is that without someone like Sanders to really push the country to (their idea of) the left, they will swing back beyond Trump 4 years later to a wannabe-dictator with an actual brain. The saving grace with Trump is that he's too stupid to take advantage of COV19.
If things in the states get as bad as i expect the Republicans will loose both the White House, and all 23 Senate seats they are defending. Biden might have 67+ democratic Senators and carte blance to change the constitution and impeach Republican judges on the Supreme Court.
America could be changed for a generation. 2nd Amendment replaced with something sane. Equal Rights Amendment adopted. Healthcare for all as a constitutional right. Statehood for Puerto Rico and DC.
Or it could (continue to) go the other way entirely. It's already well on the way to becoming a fascist authoritarion state.
Under His Eye
Biden won't do any of that stuff, unless he breaks his election promises.Quote:
Originally Posted by backstothewall
if the number are there toI dunno. Biden is an establishment Democrat, but he's a party man. If he can set the table for the party in the next 30 years i think he will.Quote:
Originally Posted by Real ale Madrid
At his age it's inconceivable that he would run again in 2024 for me. My assumption is that this would be a 1 term gig.
He's not been afraid to talk about going after guns on the campaign trail. In the run up to Super Tuesday he was pointing to Beto O'Rourke as the person who he would have taking the lead on the issue. If the numbers are there to change the constitution i could see it happening.
I could also see constitutional change regarding the Supreme Court,as well as the impeachment of Brett Kavanaugh in the event of a Senate loppsidded enough to get it through. The Dems could easily justify bumping Kavanaugh and replacing him with Merrick Garland. He has talked about putting a black woman on the bench, and I've read a bit about Kamala Harris going to SCOTUS recently, possible to replace RBG. If Steyer also goes he could secure a liberal court for quite some time.
I don't see him doing much more on healthcare than a public option, but if he goes in '24 his replacement might, and with a liberal court she could get away with a lot.
I say 'she' because if the democrats are looking for a candidate in '24 the strongest candidates are all females. Biden has already committed to a female running mate who will be in contention, while AOC will be eligible for the first time by then.
Biden's whole thing has been to preach reconciliation and rail against Sanders' revolution. I doubt that would include advocating the impeachment of Republican judges.
They would do it the way it's done. There have already been 3 separate sexual assault allegations against him. If 3 women have come forward so far there are more out there. I wouldn't be surprised if the oppo research has started already. At that point Biden can say how regrettable the whole thing is but that he should probably step down etc.
Any president with a superiority of either states or senators will come under almighty pressure from their own party to make full use of that power.