UEFA Euro 2024 Qualifying Group B

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Originally Posted by Insidetherock

Think we'll have a long running view on potential play off places as this campaign goes on.

There are 7 potential places available that we can get into (8 in the very unlikely event that Estonia come out of the group with Belgium, Austria and Sweden)


We really really need the "seeded teams" to perform and get out of their groups to give us a decent shot at a minimum play off spot

The ones I'd watch out for, who I would see struggle to qualify directly would be

A. Scotland or Norway - Spain will definitely qualify, so one of these two, likely to miss out.. I reckon Scotland

C. Ukraine - England and Italy have to be favourites

D. Wales - could struggle post Bale, possibly losing out to Turkey

E. Unlikely anyone will get past Czech Republic and Poland

F. Belgium will qualify.. we really need Austria to keep out Sweden (who are bringing back Ibra at 41)

G. Need Serbia and Hungary to hold off Montenegro

H. Really need Finland or Slovenia to hold off Northern Ireland for second in this group behind Denmark. Both Finland and Slovenia would get play off places before us, so can't hope for the lads up North to qualify

I. This is a pox ball of a group.. Israel finished in no. 1 spot in Path B, because the Russians were booted out, and they fell on their feet getting an Iceland team on the slide and a poor enough Albanian team.. but you wouldn't put your house on them holding off Romania or even Kosovo.. we hope that they will

J. Iceland are falling like a stone in terms of chances to qualify.. but because they finished ahead of us in that 3 team group, they'll be entitled to a play off place ahead of us.. (this is very unfair, but is what it is)

Which means.. in my opinion, in the worst case scenario..

Group A teams that will struggle to qualify..

Wales
Austria


B teams that will struggle

Scotland/Norway
Ukraine
Israel
Iceland
Slovenia/Finland

As Estonia have to go from D to A..

Theres potentially only 1 space in the A play offs with Austria, Wales, Estonia,

It looks like 5 teams in B may not qualify, meaning there'll be a full path B, and 1 extra.. who would then go into Path A..

By my reckoning..

Our qualification chances could now hinge of Austria or Wales qualifying.. and Northern Ireland not qualifying

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Israel proving my point so far.. one down at home to Kosovo..

I think people are getting tripped up here trying to defend Kenny. Kerr has a grudge. He was sacked after coming 4th but he feels he deserved another go. I don't think he did but when you look at the chances Kenny has been given, you can see why Kerr is irked.

Now, he's talking about not picking experience. The reason Kenny isn't is because the players coming through are better than what we had before. Some Kenny supporters try to paint it as giving youth a go but the reality is that any manager would be bringing these players on board.

The manager before Kenny had a midfield of Whelan, Hourihane and Hendrick. 3 of the most heavily criticised Irish players of the recent past. Kenny has had the luxury of having alternative options. Mainly Cullen after his Anderlecht breakthrough and improvement but also Molumby, Knight, Smallbone etc, as well as the previous options minus Whelan.

It's the same in other positions. Collins, Omobamidele, O'Shea add huge depth to our centre back choices and are far better than players like Keogh. Up front we have Obefami who returned after exile. Players like Ferguson making a huge breakthrough and before that we had players like Idah becoming an option. Again, this was far better than having to pick James Collins up front.

In goals, for a good few years it was picking keepers who weren't regulars all the time at their clubs but there really wasn't alternatives. Kenny has had Bazunu and Kelleher to choose from. Some try to paint Kenny as an unlucky manager but the reality is that he's been blessed to have so many options and players coming through. He really hasn't taken advantage of his luck.

Kerr on the other hand probably didn't have the luck but his record was actually decent. Only problem is that he didn't deliver when it really mattered. He's probably looking at the current situation in bewilderment though. Kenny hasn't delivered results when it mattered on top of having an awful record, Kerr was hounded out but Kenny is continually excused. You can see his point in fairness.

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Originally Posted by Insidetherock

G. Need Serbia and Hungary to hold off Montenegro

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IF Montenegro finish second to Serbia - don't Hungary just fall into Play off A? Montenegro ranked below us?

Fair point!

Kazakhstan v Denmark kicking off in 15 minutes. Denmark somehow not qualifying would be bad for us, but Kazakhstan can be a tricky place to go (as we've found out), so hopefully no blips there. Then NI v Finland a big match in that group later (Finland win wanted), and I think the rest either don't influence us or are all fairly one-sided.

Is it not a bit early to be getting worked up over this stuff?

Never! :p

Especially with Kazakhstan after pulling back a 2-0 deficit to be 2-2 with a couple of minutes to go.

Edit - in fact, Kazakhstan have just gone 3-2 up now. Mad game there.

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Originally Posted by pineapple stu

Fair point!

Kazakhstan v Denmark kicking off in 15 minutes. Denmark somehow not qualifying would be bad for us, but Kazakhstan can be a tricky place to go (as we've found out), so hopefully no blips there. Then NI v Finland a big match in that group later (Finland win wanted), and I think the rest either don't influence us or are all fairly one-sided.

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2-2 now after Danes were 2 up…some goal to equalize!!

Make that 3-2 Kazakhstan!!!!!

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Originally Posted by Real ale Madrid

IF Montenegro finish second to Serbia - don't Hungary just fall into Play off A? Montenegro ranked below us?

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Yeah, but the problem for us, is that if Hungary don't qualify directly, it takes up a possible potential play off place if we don't qualify directly ourselves

Basically, the only play off paths we can get into, are the A or B path.. so we need as many teams higher than us in A and B, to qualify directly..

If Montenegro qualify.. Hungary will have the play off to fall back on..

The Kazakh result shows where we might have an issue.. if Kazakhstan were to qualify, then Denmark, Finland or Slovenia, would likely go with them.. meaning two play off spaces would be taken up..

We need Denmark to qualify.. plus one of Finland or Slovenia.. which would leave only one play off space taken up

Worst case scenario of all.. if Norn Iron and Kazakhstan qualified

Basically.. we sit ranked 25.. we need as few as possible teams ranked lower than us.. to qualify directly

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Originally Posted by Insidetherock

Yeah, but the problem for us, is that if Hungary don't qualify directly, it takes up a possible potential play off place if we don't qualify directly ourselves

Basically, the only play off paths we can get into, are the A or B path.. so we need as many teams higher than us in A and B, to qualify directly..

If Montenegro qualify.. Hungary will have the play off to fall back on..

The Kazakh result shows where we might have an issue.. if Kazakhstan were to qualify, then Denmark, Finland or Slovenia, would likely go with them.. meaning two play off spaces would be taken up..

We need Denmark to qualify.. plus one of Finland or Slovenia.. which would leave only one play off space taken up

Worst case scenario of all.. if Norn Iron and Kazakhstan qualified

Basically.. we sit ranked 25.. we need as few as possible teams ranked lower than us.. to qualify directly

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I get you.

Anyway the Kazakh's won't qualify and Norn Iron are 1 down at home to Finland which is good news.

The North pummeling Finland; wouldn't surprise me if they won this yet.

Long way to go before this all crystallises obviously. But fun to watch it unfold

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Originally Posted by Real ale Madrid

I get you.

Anyway the Kazakh's won't qualify and Norn Iron are 1 down at home to Finland which is good news.

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Norn Iron losing to Finland, is good for us..

Bosnia losing to Slovakia, is bad for us..

Its going to be a lot of fun watching how these groups progress... especially come around September time when we've gone through 6 game weeks

:)

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Originally Posted by pineapple stu

The North pummeling Finland; wouldn't surprise me if they won this yet.

Long way to go before this all crystallises obviously. But fun to watch it unfold

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Yep.. from September onwards.. it'll be like watching the Eurovision results coming in haha

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Originally Posted by BOOMSHAKALAKA

I think people are getting tripped up here trying to defend Kenny. Kerr has a grudge. He was sacked after coming 4th but he feels he deserved another go. I don't think he did but when you look at the chances Kenny has been given, you can see why Kerr is irked.

Now, he's talking about not picking experience. The reason Kenny isn't is because the players coming through are better than what we had before. Some Kenny supporters try to paint it as giving youth a go but the reality is that any manager would be bringing these players on board.

The manager before Kenny had a midfield of Whelan, Hourihane and Hendrick. 3 of the most heavily criticised Irish players of the recent past. Kenny has had the luxury of having alternative options. Mainly Cullen after his Anderlecht breakthrough and improvement but also Molumby, Knight, Smallbone etc, as well as the previous options minus Whelan.

It's the same in other positions. Collins, Omobamidele, O'Shea add huge depth to our centre back choices and are far better than players like Keogh. Up front we have Obefami who returned after exile. Players like Ferguson making a huge breakthrough and before that we had players like Idah becoming an option. Again, this was far better than having to pick James Collins up front.

In goals, for a good few years it was picking keepers who weren't regulars all the time at their clubs but there really wasn't alternatives. Kenny has had Bazunu and Kelleher to choose from. Some try to paint Kenny as an unlucky manager but the reality is that he's been blessed to have so many options and players coming through. He really hasn't taken advantage of his luck.

Kerr on the other hand probably didn't have the luck but his record was actually decent. Only problem is that he didn't deliver when it really mattered. He's probably looking at the current situation in bewilderment though. Kenny hasn't delivered results when it mattered on top of having an awful record, Kerr was hounded out but Kenny is continually excused. You can see his point in fairness.

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Agree or disagree makes no difference, the FAI could afford to sack Kerr and claim promoting from youth coach ranks was a bust. Like it or not the FAI cant pay Kenny to go even if they wanted to be short sighted and just sing to the almost English like impatient choirmasters of the Irish sporting public desperate for a fix (see the reaction if the rugby team falls short in the Autumn). There is a single common denominator in the decision making on Kerr and subsequently Kenny, thankfully a snake that has slithered off in to the long grass for good, someone who appointed people for himself if it was popular and just as easily sacked them when the tide turned, there was no footballing logic involved. For now, we can only support, put up or shut up. I still think we are on a generally needed course for improvement of Irish football and am fine with not shuflling the deckchairs or doing the old window dressing for a while. Drawing France and the Dutch may get Kenny off the hook with a reasonable campaign, by WC qualifiers there will be a deeply blooded panel of players with a good amount of potential coming possibly then ready also. Cohesion between methods and tactics at all age groups and general professionalisation of squad development has improved - no fish and chips the afternoon of a game. The FAI has improved believe it or not. I happen to think the rest will follow even if that is due to expanded competition numbers or as a co host or that we are actually starting to think strategically about the future of Irish football development and it reaps reward. Do we really want another expenisve appointment like Trappatoni who disparangingly didnt really believe Irish players could actually play or ONeill whose tactics were damage limitation first with some very basic pomo thrown in and we might get lucky.

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Originally Posted by Insidetherock

Yep.. from September onwards.. it'll be like watching the Eurovision results coming in haha

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I hope we're not watching the last series of games (We don't have a game ourselves) looking for certain results. Or I hope we are. I'm not sure at this stage.

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Originally Posted by Nesta99

Agree or disagree makes no difference, the FAI could afford to sack Kerr and claim promoting from youth coach ranks was a bust. Like it or not the FAI cant pay Kenny to go even if they wanted to be short sighted and just sing to the almost English like impatient choirmasters of the Irish sporting public desperate for a fix (see the reaction if the rugby team falls short in the Autumn). There is a single common denominator in the decision making on Kerr and subsequently Kenny, thankfully a snake that has slithered off in to the long grass for good, someone who appointed people for himself if it was popular and just as easily sacked them when the tide turned, there was no footballing logic involved. For now, we can only support, put up or shut up. I still think we are on a generally needed course for improvement of Irish football and am fine with not shuflling the deckchairs or doing the old window dressing for a while. Drawing France and the Dutch may get Kenny off the hook with a reasonable campaign, by WC qualifiers there will be a deeply blooded panel of players with a good amount of potential coming possibly then ready also. Cohesion between methods and tactics at all age groups and general professionalisation of squad development has improved - no fish and chips the afternoon of a game. The FAI has improved believe it or not. I happen to think the rest will follow even if that is due to expanded competition numbers or as a co host or that we are actually starting to think strategically about the future of Irish football development and it reaps reward. Do we really want another expenisve appointment like Trappatoni who disparangingly didnt really believe Irish players could actually play or ONeill whose tactics were damage limitation first with some very basic pomo thrown in and we might get lucky.

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Best post I've read here for a while Nesta, fair play

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Originally Posted by Nesta99

Agree or disagree makes no difference, the FAI could afford to sack Kerr and claim promoting from youth coach ranks was a bust. Like it or not the FAI cant pay Kenny to go even if they wanted to be short sighted and just sing to the almost English like impatient choirmasters of the Irish sporting public desperate for a fix (see the reaction if the rugby team falls short in the Autumn). There is a single common denominator in the decision making on Kerr and subsequently Kenny, thankfully a snake that has slithered off in to the long grass for good, someone who appointed people for himself if it was popular and just as easily sacked them when the tide turned, there was no footballing logic involved. For now, we can only support, put up or shut up. I still think we are on a generally needed course for improvement of Irish football and am fine with not shuflling the deckchairs or doing the old window dressing for a while. Drawing France and the Dutch may get Kenny off the hook with a reasonable campaign, by WC qualifiers there will be a deeply blooded panel of players with a good amount of potential coming possibly then ready also. Cohesion between methods and tactics at all age groups and general professionalisation of squad development has improved - no fish and chips the afternoon of a game. The FAI has improved believe it or not. I happen to think the rest will follow even if that is due to expanded competition numbers or as a co host or that we are actually starting to think strategically about the future of Irish football development and it reaps reward. Do we really want another expenisve appointment like Trappatoni who disparangingly didnt really believe Irish players could actually play or ONeill whose tactics were damage limitation first with some very basic pomo thrown in and we might get lucky.

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That line has been repeated so often by Kenny supporters. It's not a choice between Kenny and hoofball managers. It's possible to get results while playing a progressive style. You just have to have a competent manager. Kenny has failed that test up to now but he said after the Luxembourg defeat that Euro 2024 was the actual aim. The time has come to put up or shut up. Let's hope he turns this around.

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Originally Posted by BOOMSHAKALAKA

That line has been repeated so often by Kenny supporters. It's not a choice between Kenny and hoofball managers. It's possible to get results while playing a progressive style. You just have to have a competent manager. Kenny has failed that test up to now but he said after the Luxembourg defeat that Euro 2024 was the actual aim. The time has come to put up or shut up. Let's hope he turns this around.

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And not 360 degrees ! !

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Originally Posted by Nesta99

Do we really want another expenisve appointment like Trappatoni who disparangingly didnt really believe Irish players could actually play or ONeill whose tactics were damage limitation first with some very basic pomo thrown in and we might get lucky.

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I wish there was the opposite of a Thanks button for when people post straw man nonsense like this.

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Originally Posted by BOOMSHAKALAKA

That line has been repeated so often by Kenny supporters. It's not a choice between Kenny and hoofball managers. It's possible to get results while playing a progressive style. You just have to have a competent manager. Kenny has failed that test up to now but he said after the Luxembourg defeat that Euro 2024 was the actual aim. The time has come to put up or shut up. Let's hope he turns this around.

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The issue is, how likely are the FAI to appoint the right type of manager or the right manager at all, maybe 20%

There’s a clip in RTE somewhere after the October 2013 window where they interviewed people leaving the stadium, everyone was picking either Martin O’Neill or Roy Keane to be the manager and I got interviewed and said Marcelo Bielsa (who was out of work since that summer) and talked about the worked he’d done with the Chile, playing attractive football, bringing through young players and getting them out of the groups at the World Cup. Bielsa would have been cheaper than MON too. I’ve often wondered what if…

I have very little faith in the FAI picking the right next manager.