Cork are gonna finish top two for the fifth year in a row, with 10+ points to spare. Reports of their demise are premature
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Cork are gonna finish top two for the fifth year in a row, with 10+ points to spare. Reports of their demise are premature
If the history of the League of Ireland has taught us anything, apart from that the history League of Ireland generally teaches the League of Ireland nothing, it's that winning the league is far more likely to lead to a club's demise than not winning it!
Very premature to talk about a demise at Cork, they did win the double last season, Id very much like Cork to win the cup this season be good for the league I feel.
Corks problem for next season is the same as every other teams.....
you need a centreforward who can score 20+ goals to win the league.
Cork got lucky with Maguire and Dundalk have had several.
for Rovers or Cork or anyone the off season signing of someone who can score goals will decide if they can challenge for next season.
Looking forward to this on the box as a neutral, everyone saying Cork reckon it will suit the Dublin's number 3 or is it 2 to be the underdogs.
Can't pretend to be neutral here, my default position would be to support whoever Bohs are playing anyway :) but with the euromillions possibly at stake if we manage to screw up against Waterford' ive no problem knowing who I am cheering for tonight.
I might even have a bet on Bohs to win on the night to make doubly sure of a Cork win
so ive just had a decent bet at 11/5 on Bohs to qualify for the next round at 11/5 on PP .
Mission accomplished Cork to win easily tonight
I think you're right it will suit Bohs to be underdogs. They looked very nervous in the beginning in Dalyer after they had been built up a lot before that match.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kingswood Rover
I'm not sure if that is actually true - Shels and Bohs certainly got into deep financial trouble after winning the league, but for most of the rest it was a lack of success (along with low income or poor financial management) that was more pertinent.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr A
Quote:
Originally Posted by seand
Apart from possibly Mr A's comment, I am not aware of any talk or reports of the demise of Cork City.Quote:
Originally Posted by joey B
However, there is strong evidence of a decline in their league performances - they have already lost more league games than in any season since 2013 and currently have a lower points per match average than any recent season bar 2015
A defeat tonight along with reported budget cuts for 2019 may hasten that decline
Your some man for the semantics, Ezekiel.
You may be right PC, but you well know that there is a fundamental difference between suggesting that a team may be in decline and the potential demise of a team.Quote:
Originally Posted by placid casual
I gave an opinion and got a bunch of cliches in response.
There is currently an identical 12 point gap from Cork to Dundalk and between Cork to Shamrock Rovers & Waterford. Cork could re-galvinise and continue to be the biggest challengers to Dundalk or could decline further. I would be amazed if Cork were not top four in 2019, but I would also be surprised if they cut their budget and still mounted a credible title challenge next year.
Tonight's match is hugely important as defeat would leave the club very deflated - it could even lead to the departure of John Caulfield- while a win opens up the possibility of the season still being a success giving them a better platform to kick on from.
Yes i would assume that defeat here would have the city supporters feeling that it was a poor year which may entice rumblings for maagerial change, if Caulfield is Marihino, Kenny is Klop or Pep, who is Bradley, i would love him to be pocchetxxxiii??? ...the Spurs manager, but he is probably a Sean DycheQuote:
Originally Posted by Ezeikial
1-0 Cork. Good diving header from Cummins. Lets see what Bohs are made of now
2-0 Sheppard. Long way back now for Bohs
Bohs are very off their game tonight. Worst I've seen them all season.
Goal of the season.
What a goal for bohs.
Outrageous stuff there from Morris. What a goal
Game on again
What a goal!!!
Unreal goal from Ian Morris. Rifled in off the bar from just past the centre circle - about 40 yards.
Only thing is that it bounced down and hit a water bottle and came out so there was a few seconds where nobody knew if it was a goal or not which kind of spoiled the initial thrill everybody would have had if we had seen it hit the net.
I'm at the game right now and had a perfect view of that goal.
One of the best I've seen at the cross I must say.
Regba looks a better player than Dinny tonight. Interesting to see how he progresses next year.
Bohs just didn't do enough. Admirably attempted a neat short passing game but several of them were overhit. Shame for them they couldn't capitalize on rocking Cork with that Goal of the Season. Corcoran was poor. Very edgy stuff from Cork at times but there they are, in a 4th Cup Final in a Row.
Bohs will be disappointed that they didn't manage to carve out a few real chances after Cork sat so deep for the last 20 minutes.
I thought Cork fully deserved the win. Bohs were simply unable to capitalise on Corks nervousness in the last quarter .
Bohs will be kicking themselves, should have finished the job at home and never showed up tonight. Hard to feel enthusiastic about another final v Cork, the last 3 have been awful spectacles, this will be no different. I'm sure I'll feel different closer to the game. It's bad news for neutrals anyway
Bohs missed the boat last Sunday. We rode our luck a bit to get the draw. Dundalk big favourites for the final I think.
Chuffed with the result tonight but think I'll be missing first cup final in years, bizarre sequence of draws to keep cork and dundalk separate this long
Not bizarre at all. The odds of us avoiding each other for the past four years combined in 2/1. Hardly outrageous.Quote:
Originally Posted by sbgawa
Absolutely delighted! What a night, what a result. Bring on the Cup Final!
The last two finals were decent spectacles I thought. 2015 was dreadful alright.Quote:
Originally Posted by mcgonigle
That can't be right. The odds of you avoiding each other in the semi final draw this year alone was even money. ...is there a mathematician in the house ??Quote:
Originally Posted by micls
Yeah, you're right. I got the number mixed around.
The odds of us avoiding each other this year, we're a little over 1/2. So avoiding each other wasn't unusual.
But over the 4 years that would be 1/2 x1/2 X 1/2 x1/2. (I added them instead of multiplying).
That's a 6.25% chance of avoiding each other 4 years in a row in the semi draw, but then you h as he to include avoiding each other in all t ghe other rounds......this is a spreadsheet job tommorow as an alternative to working....I'll report back
We only had a 33% chance of drawing Dundalk in the semi final. Three possible opponents. A one in 7 chance for quarter final and so on. It's surprisingly not as likely as you'd expect
And here's the thing. If the rest of ye are sick of a City-Dundalk final then there is a very simple solution. Beat one of us.
Cork really overpowered Bohs in the first half. Home side much the better team for me tonight. Good to see a decent crowd at a LoI match, combined with that goal it gives a good image of our game.
Am I wrong to think that the number of times you multiply 1/2 is irrelevant, as you still end up with the equivalent of 1/2 anyway (just reflected in larger numbers) ?Quote:
Originally Posted by micls
Yes. That's the equivalent of saying one Cork v Dundalk final is as likely as four Cork v Dundalk finals, which doesn't make sense.
If the odds of a coin coming up heads are 1/2, then the odds of four heads is 1/2×1/2×1/2×1/2 = 1/16
In fact, feck it - let's do some maths.
The odds of Cork and Dundalk avoiding each other in any given round is (n-2)/(n-1), where n is the number of teams in the hat. So this means that for the semi-final (4 teams), the odds are 2/3 of them avoiding each other, because there are 3 teams they could draw (everyone other than themselves), and 2 non-Dundalk/Cork teams they could draw.
For them to avoid each other in four successive semi-finals, the odds are multiplied - 2/3 x 2/3 x 2/3 x 2/3 = 16/81
For them to avoid each other in four successive tournaments, the odds are (30/31 x 14/15 x 6/7 x 2/3) ^ 4 - or a 7.1% chance.
This assumes that they win all their matches, which as El-P says would be the easiest way to stop all this. If you start factoring in the odds of them actually losing a game, the 7.1% chance would drop a lot. So if you assume both sides must be in the first round draw, and then there's a 90% chance of each getting through to each subsequent round, I think the odds drop to 2.0%
Actually, this is wrong; it's the odds of them reaching four finals given a 10% chance either will get knocked out in the first round, but thereafter will beat everyone.Quote:
Originally Posted by pineapple stu
Given a 90% chance of both making it through each round - ie the odds are 1/20 they'll win any given game - then I think the odds drop to ((30/31)×(14×15×0.9)×(6/7×0.9×0.9)×(2/3×0.9×0.9×0.9))^4, which is a 0.56% chance of four successive finals appearances.
If you take an 20% chance of either side getting knocked out in any given round, then you getting to a 0.03% chance - Leicester-winning-the-league odds. The majority of which is down to Cork/Dundalk not losing a game as opposed to being kept apart in the draw.
Others may be able to refine that further.
I wonder if it's a record of some sort?
Edit - not a record, but only five instances of five or more successive repeated cup finals - http://rsssf.com/miscellaneous/cuprec.html#cfp