Election 2011 - General

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Originally Posted by The Dark Knight

FF wil do better than most experts expect. The personal factor will kick in, people I've spoken to have said no way would they vote FF but when pressed admit they will vote for their local canidate.

FG could be on the cusp of an overall majority but I think will fall about 10 seats short.

Labour will do well by its own standards, but will fall well short of what they expect.

The Greens will come back with one maybe two seats.

Sinn Fein will have about 8-10 seats and will be below their own expectations.

Independents will be the major winners, if enough get elected FG could lead a Government with independents and without Labour. This is their prefered option. If this comes to pass I think we could be headed for an election in 2013. Enda Kenny will then be seen as either a very good or very bad leader. I think the latter and FF will have had two years to rebuild its reputation, and could be back in the game again.

I predict

FG 73
FF 34
Lab 33
SF 8
Green 1
Ind 17 (Inc small parties Socialist parties)

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How soon FF return to the fold will depend on how many seats they win tomorrow. If they win 20-30 seats, they'll need 2 elections to challenge for power again, as has happened to FG. I expect the polls to be accurate. I don't think the Greens will win a seat, I don't think FG will get a majority, the ULA will gain 6-10 seats, FF will struggle to get 20 seats. But they have one seat atm, the FF CC. That "lead" will be gone come lunchtime on Saturday though.

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Originally Posted by dahamsta

I think the FF voters will come out of the woodwork again, but I hope they don't get as many seats as Dark Knight predicts; and I'd like to see SF get more than he predicts. I'd also love to see FG get a kick at the ballot box at the expense of Labour, they'd make a bad situation worse if they get in on their own. I'd like to see them in coalition with a strong Labour. (Ideally I'd like it the other way around, with different leaders, but that's not going to happen.)

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I don't want a FG-Lab coalition, because it'll make it too easy for the electorate here to turn back to FF when the next government doesn't make the staggeringly large mess FF have left us in magically better.

2 polling stations side by side in our Midlands town. After 3hrs 30mins, only 50 people have voted. Wonder will those who normally vote FF, not vote at all this time? I'm seeing plenty of evidence amongst peers on social network sites of people not bothering to vote at all. Idiots none the less, but it is a worry.

What were the odds for % of turnout? I'd have guessed under 50%, which would be atypical for Ireland, 20-25% of regular voters would be mainly FF who will punish the party by not voting. Also I wonder about the number of people who are registered but no longer in the country. I did everything to get home today to vote but will only get in tomorrow, which is depressing as I wanted to get rid of the 3 from my area who will most likely get back in.

A person I know has voted for FF because she thinks if FG get a majority they might be bad at governing. I nearly stabbed her with my polling card!

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Originally Posted by peadar1987

A person I know has voted for FF because she thinks if FG get a majority they might be bad at governing. I nearly stabbed her with my polling card!

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I swear, some day I'll figure out a better way than democracy. People are morons.

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Originally Posted by peadar1987

A person I know has voted for FF because she thinks if FG get a majority they might be bad at governing. I nearly stabbed her with my polling card!

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I've absolutely no problem with people voting tactically. Persoanlly I'll be giving FF preferences ahead of FG 'just in case'

and I'm another Labour voter who doesn't want to see a coalition.

No, the worst excuse I've heard for voting FF came before the last election.

"Sure, they've always been in power in my lifetime, so why change?" :rolleyes:

At the time, the media were advocating them as a signal of "strong, stable government." :D

What is the distance parties must keep posters etc away from polling station? Just saw a "vote sinn fein" jeep parked at most 100 meters from school door.

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Originally Posted by Spudulika

What were the odds for % of turnout? I'd have guessed under 50%, which would be atypical for Ireland, 20-25% of regular voters would be mainly FF who will punish the party by not voting. Also I wonder about the number of people who are registered but no longer in the country. I did everything to get home today to vote but will only get in tomorrow, which is depressing as I wanted to get rid of the 3 from my area who will most likely get back in.

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By lunchtime, turnout was already 20% in Kerry, which is high by usual GE standards, so don't be surprised if it hits 75-80% nationwide by close of play. As for Magicme, not surprised, when Ferris made the breakthrough in '02, SF went around local estates on polling day blaring campaign slogans out of vans, can't blame them though, it obviously gets the vote out.

culloty I'd love if the vote was so high, it will show that there is something to play for. I had a skype chat with one of my Aunts who was always Labour, she's putting FF 2nd so that FG won't get a transfer - I didn't understand it since in her constituency FF will be looking for such a transfer later on. I pray that when I arrive in Ireland tomorrow there will be a dozen FF'ers returned.

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Originally Posted by Spudulika

I had a skype chat with one of my Aunts who was always Labour, she's putting FF 2nd so that FG won't get a transfer - I didn't understand it since in her constituency FF will be looking for such a transfer later on.

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If the Labour guy gets in, it's unlikely to matter who she has at #2. It can't do Labour any harm anyway.

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Originally Posted by culloty82

By lunchtime, turnout was already 20% in Kerry, which is high by usual GE standards, so don't be surprised if it hits 75-80% nationwide by close of play. As for Magicme, not surprised, when Ferris made the breakthrough in '02, SF went around local estates on polling day blaring campaign slogans out of vans, can't blame them though, it obviously gets the vote out.

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Funny just walking up street there and another sinn fein jeep out blaring woeful trad music....even more reason not to vote for them.

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Originally Posted by Magicme

What is the distance parties must keep posters etc away from polling station? Just saw a "vote sinn fein" jeep parked at most 100 meters from school door.

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100 metres from the polling station (Technically from any part of the land or building). Lots of reports on politics.ie of FFers putting up posters last night right beside polling stations (not just old ones left up).

FF are right down the bottom of my list. I doubt they'll count, but I'm hoping for a recount so the tossers can see just where they rank! I'm really torn between short term pain of a FG overall majority and long term gain of Labour as clear leaders of the opposition.

Turnout appears to be generally up - no idea whether that's a good thing. Judging by this thread probably bloody not - you can vote tactically without bloody voting FF!*

*Well you can most places, they'll be in the shake up with more than FG.

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Originally Posted by culloty82

By lunchtime, turnout was already 20% in Kerry, which is high by usual GE standards, so don't be surprised if it hits 75-80% nationwide by close of play. As for Magicme, not surprised, when Ferris made the breakthrough in '02, SF went around local estates on polling day blaring campaign slogans out of vans, can't blame them though, it obviously gets the vote out.

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Sould have seen the craic Doonie Cassiyd used to get upto in Westmeath - emptying the old folks homes and Mental hospital for votes, had a mini bus to pick them up - aagh the good old days for FF:)

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Originally Posted by bennocelt

Sold have seen the craic Doonie Cassiyd used to get upto in Westmeath - emptying the old folks homes and Mental hospital for votes, had a mini bus to pick them up - aagh the good old days for FF:)

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Wouldn't say it isn't still going on to be honest. Common enough for candidates or their teams to offer lifts. Classic Tory tactic in Britain too, assuming all the old codgers vote for them.

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Originally Posted by Macy

100 metres from the polling station (Technically from any part of the land or building). Lots of reports on politics.ie of FFers putting up posters last night right beside polling stations (not just old ones left up).

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So they were breaking the law then coz the were parked at the gate to the teachers carpark and school yard.

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Originally Posted by Magicme

Funny just walking up street there and another sinn fein jeep out blaring woeful trad music....even more reason not to vote for them.

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Are you still in D15 cause they must be stalking you cause of your border accent. I ain't heard anything up here in Littlepace............................although I did wonder about the ice-cream man's music in the distance!

Was in Monaghan, all day.

The RTE Exit Poll 2011 stands at:

FG: 36%
Lab: 20%
FF: 15%

Enda Kenny as Taoiseach.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0226/politics.html

Morning Ireland call it:

FG 72
Lab 38
FF 20
Oth 20
SF 15
Green 1