World Cup Qualifying 2018, UEFA Group D - Opponent Watch

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Originally Posted by dantheman

Been asked before I am sure but can we qualify by drawing with Wales (beating Moldova and Georgia drawing tomorrow as well)?? :D

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Mathematically, we can. Check out post #261 in this thread for further details: http://foot.ie/threads/216367-World-...=1#post1938227

We'd be relying on favourable results from group H only now for that. Unfortunately, Denmark beat Montenegro tonight, so group E is no longer of potential use to us on that front.

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Originally Posted by DannyInvincible

Mathematically, we can. Check out post #261 in this thread for further details: http://foot.ie/threads/216367-World-...=1#post1938227

We'd be relying on favourable results from group H only now for that. Unfortunately, Denmark beat Montenegro tonight, so group E is no longer of potential use to us on that front.

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Thanks for the link, looks like the basis of a PhD that!! :o

Worth noting Scotland have four clean sheets in their last five qualifiers. That's four wins and a draw with England, who equalised with the last kick. They're in good form after a crap start to the group and I'd say will fancy their chances of a win in Slovenia.

But nice to have the avenue open all the same.

People laughed when i said strachan was doing well and back after the euros that i thought Wales were a team id like us to be.

Scotland have looked like us but much more solid

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Originally Posted by zero

i agree that scotland failing to win in slovenia seems quite tangible now and feels like our best hope. big games for us now tomorrow (ourselves), saturday (the greece/bosnia group) then slovenia scotland on sunday evening.

if we can go into the monday game needing 3 points to get a playoff spot, then i think it's true that quite a few people would have taken that at that the start of the group.

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Scotland are showing form, but Slovenia are also unbeaten at home in this campaign. England only managed a 0-0 draw there and they also beat Slovakia 1-0. I think we can be cautiously optimistic of Scotland failing to take three points.

It would be nice going to bed on Sunday night knowing that a win for us in Cardiff the following evening would definitely be enough to get us into the play-offs. The B&H-Belgium and Cyprus-Greece games are both on Saturday too. They're the crucial games in that group for us, so with Scotland playing on Sunday, we should hopefully know before Monday whether or not a win in Cardiff will get us through rather than having to wait 24 hours until Tuesday to have our fate confirmed (and possibly for a win to turn out to have not been enough). Even though we obviously can't be certain of beating Wales in Cardiff, there's a certain level of comfort or peace of mind in at least knowing exactly where we stand in advance. We can go out and truly give it our all then without that niggling fear in the back of our heads that it'll all be for nothing.

Another thing; if Wales drop points tomorrow, it could well deal their play-off hopes a fatal blow. If so, they might go into Monday's game with morale and motivation seriously depleted.

Will Northern Ireland be a seed team in the play offs?
( they are ranked 20 in the world at the Moment)

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Originally Posted by Diggs246

Will Northern Ireland be a seed team in the play offs?
( they are ranked 20 in the world at the Moment)

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According to this:
http://www.football-rankings.info/20...6-october.html

Chances of making the World Cup:
N Ireland: 28.41%
Wales: 27.25%
Scotland: 8.84%
Rep of Ireland: 6.81%

Chances of making the playoffs:
N Ireland: 98.96%
Wales: 41.81%
Scotland: 25.45%
Rep of Ireland: 16.37%

Chances of being the worst 2nd place team:
Wales: 26.63%
Rep of Ireland: 10.46%
N Ireland: 1.04%
Scotland: 0.43%

Chances of being seeded in the Playoffs:
Wales: 41.79%
N Ireland: 19.87%
Scotland: 1.27%
Rep of Ireland: 0%

Who knew maths could be so glib

The results we're looking for in tonight's games, according to Owen Cowzer: https://www.thesun.ie/sport/football...up-qualifiers/

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Originally Posted by Owen Cowzer

GROUP D

Georgia v Wales — Draw or Georgia win
Ireland v Moldova — Ireland win
Austria v Serbia — Austria win

GROUP G

Spain v Albania — Albania win
Italy v Macedonia — Macedonia win

GROUP I

Croatia v Finland — Draw or Finland win
Kosovo v Ukraine — Draw or Kosovo win
Turkey v Iceland — Iceland win

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An Austria win over Serbia would obviously be better for us tonight as we can still mathematically top the group if we win our final two games and Serbia either:

i) lose both of theirs (their final game is at home to Georgia), or;
ii) pick up just a point over their final two games with us managing to improve our goal difference by +8 over our two victories to enable us to pull ahead of Serbia on goal difference.

As Cowzer says, we can forget about group G really. Italy will move out of our reach with a point against Macedonia tonight. Spain are already out of our reach if they were to drop back into second place in that group, whilst Albania, the only other team who can mathematically finish second in that group, would have to beat Spain tonight and win their next game, with Italy also losing their final two games to make it into the potential play-off spot. If they were to pass Italy then, they'd have 13 play-off points and their goal difference would almost certainly be superior to ours.

Group I is so hard to predict really as it's so tight and four teams there can still realistically qualify for the play-offs. Cowzer suggests the following would be ideal for us, however:

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Originally Posted by Owen Cowzer

This is the hardest group to work out with two points separating four teams at the top.

From Ireland’s point of view, Iceland topping the group would be best as they already have 13 points that count towards the play-offs.

Croatia have ten so would have to fail to win their final two games, while Ukraine, with 11 points, have just one more game that counts — the final day showdown with the Croatians.

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Originally Posted by Diggs246

Will Northern Ireland be a seed team in the play offs?
( they are ranked 20 in the world at the Moment)

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Out of the current second-placed teams in all the groups, NI are the fourth-highest ranked team (or third-best if you exclude Wales who are currently worst runner-up and who we are hoping to replace there anyway), so they'd be seeded if things stay as they are:

Portugal (3rd), Wales (13th), Italy (17th), NI (20th), Iceland (22nd), Sweden (23rd), Denmark (26th), B&H (36th) and Scotland (43rd).

For comparison, we're ranked 34th at the minute, so highly unlikely we'll be seeded if we make it. There'd be six teams ranked ahead of us on current standings (if you exclude Wales and even if you include B&H and Scotland, one of whom we're hoping will be the worst runner-up if we finish second).

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Originally Posted by DannyInvincible

Scotland are showing form, but Slovenia are also unbeaten at home in this campaign. England only managed a 0-0 draw there and they also beat Slovakia 1-0. I think we can be cautiously optimistic of Scotland failing to take three points.

It would be nice going to bed on Sunday night knowing that a win for us in Cardiff the following evening would definitely be enough to get us into the play-offs. The B&H-Belgium and Cyprus-Greece games are both on Saturday too. They're the crucial games in that group for us, so with Scotland playing on Sunday, we should hopefully know before Monday whether or not a win in Cardiff will get us through rather than having to wait 24 hours until Tuesday to have our fate confirmed (and possibly for a win to turn out to have not been enough). Even though we obviously can't be certain of beating Wales in Cardiff, there's a certain level of comfort or peace of mind in at least knowing exactly where we stand in advance. We can go out and truly give it our all then without that niggling fear in the back of our heads that it'll all be for nothing.

Another thing; if Wales drop points tomorrow, it could well deal their play-off hopes a fatal blow. If so, they might go into Monday's game with morale and motivation seriously depleted.

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Originally Posted by DannyInvincible

Out of the current second-placed teams in all the groups, NI are the fourth-highest ranked team (or third-best if you exclude Wales who are currently worst runner-up and who we are hoping to replace there anyway), so they'd be seeded if things stay as they are:

Portugal (3rd), Wales (13th), Italy (17th), NI (20th), Iceland (22nd), Sweden (23rd), Denmark (26th), B&H (36th) and Scotland (43rd).

For comparison, we're ranked 34th at the minute, so highly unlikely we'll be seeded if we make it. There'd be six teams ranked ahead of us on current standings (if you exclude Wales and even if you include B&H and Scotland, one of whom we're hoping will be the worst runner-up if we finish second).

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Thanks Danny: Italy and (Portugal/ Switzerland) would be bad draws, but NI and Iceland we could qualify ( but lets win tonight first)

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Originally Posted by DannyInvincible

Out of the current second-placed teams in all the groups, NI are the fourth-highest ranked team (or third-best if you exclude Wales who are currently worst runner-up and who we are hoping to replace there anyway), so they'd be seeded if things stay as they are:

Portugal (3rd), Wales (13th), Italy (17th), NI (20th), Iceland (22nd), Sweden (23rd), Denmark (26th), B&H (36th) and Scotland (43rd).

For comparison, we're ranked 34th at the minute, so highly unlikely we'll be seeded if we make it. There'd be six teams ranked ahead of us on current standings (if you exclude Wales and even if you include B&H and Scotland, one of whom we're hoping will be the worst runner-up if we finish second).

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At first glace that list of seeds looks disturbing but i assume it's the ranking after the qualifiers that count? Seeing as NI have already lost to Germany and probably a draw with Norway, so they should drop off a bit from that confounding elevation.
It would niggle me no end (should events transpire) that NI would grab Iceland's seeded place.

Welsh team to face Georgia: https://twitter.com/FAWales/status/916328771606712320
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DLdkl3qXkAA8oOL.jpg

Ramsey, King, Ledley, Davies, Chester and Williams all carrying yellows according to Sky Sports.

Should we beat Moldovo, whatever the outcome in this game in Tiblisi doesn't change what needs to be done in the last game. but it would be nice if Georgia could p'iss on their parade.

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Originally Posted by geysir

At first glace that list of seeds looks disturbing but i assume it's the ranking after the qualifiers that count?

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That's usually the way, aye.

Going OK for us in Georgia so far, although a Georgia goal would be ideal as that would pretty much put Wales out of the play-offs reckoning for definite. Would much rather facing a Wales with nothing to play for on Monday rather than a Wales with a play-off place to play for.

Goal for Wales, changes nothing, still need two wins

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Originally Posted by koneinc

Goal for Wales, changes nothing, still need two wins

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It changes things a fair bit. It gives Wales a lot more to play for in the final game and also means we have to beat Moldova. If Wales were to fail to beat Georgia in this game, we could afford to lose against Moldova and it would make absolutely no difference to our runners-up ranking if we were to then finish second by beating Wales.

Ireland team: Randolph; Christie, Duffy, Clark, Ward; Meyler (c), Hendrick, Hoolahan, O'Dowda; Long, Murphy.

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Originally Posted by DannyInvincible

It changes things a fair bit. It gives Wales a lot more to play for in the final game and also means we have to beat Moldova. If Wales were to fail to beat Georgia in this game, we could afford to lose against Moldova and it would make absolutely no difference to our runners-up ranking if we were to then finish second by beating Wales.

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Let's be honest, we need to beat Moldova anyway, if more for confidence than points.

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Originally Posted by koneinc

Let's be honest, we need to beat Moldova anyway, if more for confidence than points.

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True, you definitely want to and should be beating Moldova, although a Wales slip-up would have eased any anxiety and perhaps given us greater leeway to conserve the likes of Hoolahan for Cardiff.