Election 2011 - General

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Originally Posted by culloty82

Who's for an FG minority government?

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FG-FF coalition - the only one that makes sense on the figures!

You are right, long term it isn't the worst news for Labour if they are clear leaders of the opposition - could effectively seal FF's fate, as they are counting on being leaders of the opposition for their long term survival. Also, could FF survive financially at that number of seats? They're broke as it is, and then obviously they'll be way down on state funding. I suppose the developers would find a way to funnel money back from Marbella...

my friend Adam is doing a masters at the moment based around social searches, and is looking for volunteers to watch the leader's debate, monitor twitter and eat pizza in DCU tonight
You can contact him via twitter here: http://twitter.com/#!/adambermingham/

The Boards poll is a load of nonsense, but entertaining nonsense all the same, I'd say you'ld get hefty odds.

I hope FG do not do any deals whatsoever with FF. Labour got burned for that in '97. If a look is taken at the European political groupings, FG and Labour belong to the two biggest groupings and FF are only are minority in Europe. I think people's interest are best served with either Fine Gael or Labour depending on whether they are left or right.

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Originally Posted by legendz

I hope FG do not do any deals whatsoever with FF. Labour got burned for that in '97. If a look is taken at the European political groupings, FG and Labour belong to the two biggest groupings and FF are only are minority in Europe. I think people's interest are best served with either Fine Gael or Labour depending on whether they are left or right.

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Going by the Indo's poll, there mightn't even be much of an FF left to do any deals:

FG 38%
Lab 23%
Oth 16%
FF 12%
SF 10%
GP 1%

Their seat predictions based on this:

FG 78
Lab 42
Ind 14
=FF 13
=SF 13
ULA 6

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Originally Posted by culloty82

Going by the Indo's poll, there mightn't even be much of an FF left to do any deals:

FG 38%
Lab 23%
Oth 16%
FF 12%
SF 10%
GP 1%

Their seat predictions based on this:

FG 78
Lab 42
Ind 14
=FF 13
=SF 13
ULA 6

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Lads can someone help me out here.... take the figures quoted above, there is no clear overall majority for FG but the numbers are so bad for everyone else, it would take the coalition of all coalitions to overtake FG, what happens?

The gerrymandering of the consitituencies mean that they'll be an over representation of FG in seat terms. Again can I just laugh at FF being a major loser because of the number of 3 and 4 seaters :).

Can't see a coalition of everyone else to keep FG out, too many clashing interests, even among "others". If FG fall short, it will really come down to independents - I can't see FG giving enough up for Labour to go in at this stage, and there is an attraction to Labour of being the largest and clear opposition and finally having a left right divide, with a labour led left wing coalition the next election. All assuming the figures stay the same of course.

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Originally Posted by Kingdom

Lads can someone help me out here.... take the figures quoted above, there is no clear overall majority for FG but the numbers are so bad for everyone else, it would take the coalition of all coalitions to overtake FG, what happens?

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It would be incumbent on FG - the party with the most seats to negotiate with the minority parties. FG / FF could be a viable option, given the figures quoted above. As would FG / SF and the obvious FG / Lab. I worse FF do, the more chance FG teaming up with them imo.

I would hate to see independents form part of the next Government - that should be one of big lessons from the last 13 years and we should be looking to avoid.

Gilmore referred to this election being a defining/decisive election for the next 20 years.
I think he was referring to, that the choices made by the people re electing a new government will have a heavy influence on the state of the nation for the next 20 years.
I doubt it, the immediate issue facing the new government will be default and how we default, or else face a worse chaos. A FG government avoiding the issue of default can't last more than 18 months and in all likelihood there will be a string of elections amidst social and political chaos

Would Gilmore/Labour not be better off with a longer term plan, instead of hoping for coalition appointment should they not hope/plan for a FG majority and plan ahead for the election after this one?
Do the words of one of the Green Party ex ministers really hold water, that one bad day in government is worth a year on the opposition - or something to that effect?

Good God! Micheál Martin is singing "My ol' man's a busdriver" on the FF party political broadcast on RTE.

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Originally Posted by Real ale Madrid

It would be incumbent on FG - the party with the most seats to negotiate with the minority parties. FG / FF could be a viable option, given the figures quoted above.

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It's a viable option on the figures, but not on practicality. I think Enda would rather emigrate than hop into bed with the enemy. The public wouldn't take it very well either.

Still looks like a nailed-on FG/Labour coalition, and for both parties sake, that's probably the best option. In the current climate, a sole FG majority could be a disaster for them when the cuts/policies are implemented, and the public turn on them.

A political compass type site that's exclusively Irish.

No matter who gets in I can't see the government lasting more than 2-3 years, then a massive break down and a new election with Monty Martin leading the soldiers of destiny to glory, with Labour in tow. Love to see FG-SF, never happen though.

culloty: thanks for the link, I just realised I'm against FG and FF and heavily Labour and SF, and mildly Green. Sorry Enda, I think I just found my inner red :p

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Originally Posted by culloty82

A political compass type site that's exclusively Irish.

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I gave up on page 2, when it asked whether I agree or disagree that a fund which has already been spent should be invested in infrastructure.

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Originally Posted by Spudulika

No matter who gets in I can't see the government lasting more than 2-3 years, then a massive break down and a new election with Monty Martin leading the soldiers of destiny to glory, with Labour in tow. Love to see FG-SF, never happen though.

culloty: thanks for the link, I just realised I'm against FG and FF and heavily Labour and SF, and mildly Green. Sorry Enda, I think I just found my inner red

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I do want a change of government and I'm happy with Enda as Taoiseach, but FG's economic policies worry me, as they sound FF-lite, especially when it comes to social welfare, which hasn't played a big part in the campaign. I think Labour's economic policies are fairer.

Nationally they need each other for stability. A FF-majority would be wafer thin and vulnerable to a couple of Dail rebel votes, as the last government constantly was.

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Originally Posted by mypost

Still looks like a nailed-on FG/Labour coalition

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It's not looked less nailed on for bloody years. FG won't want to give up enough cabinet seats to make it worth Labours while or Labour have to go in with little influence and at least an equal share of the blame.

Labour have the chance to lead the following Government if they let FG take the hit for the coming cuts/ taxes - finally forcing the left right split. It would also help FG long term, as they'll become the natural right wing alternative with FF possibly third in the opposition pecking order and their future in doubt.

Caveat is obviously if the current seat projections/ polls are accurate, I can't see a FG-Labour coalition.

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Originally Posted by mypost

I do want a change of government and I'm happy with Enda as Taoiseach, but FG's economic policies worry me, as they sound FF-lite, especially when it comes to social welfare, which hasn't played a big part in the campaign. I think Labour's economic policies are fairer.

Nationally they need each other for stability. A FF-majority would be wafer thin and vulnerable to a couple of Dail rebel votes, as the last government constantly was.

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Agree with you on the FG economic policies, it's a reason I am less than keen on Varadkar as he really hasn't a clue what he's talking about - you know once he opens his mouth he's spouting the type of Maggie Thatcher rhetoric that makes FF look clever. Labour and SF have economic policies that at least try to account for the public in general.

I've said it before and I still think it'll be a FF-Labour government, with a few indies thrown in!

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Originally Posted by spudulika

i've said it before and i still think it'll be a ff-labour government, with a few indies thrown in!

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they won't have the feckin numbers!!!!!

On current numbers FF and Labour would be around 60 - that's some number of indies to make up to 83!

You might well worry about FG policies, the destructive core is all hidden in obfuscation.
One FG spoof is about the Health system. FG say they want to adopt the Dutch model.

The actual text in the FG manifesto reads
"Our ultimate goal is to establish a system of Universal Health Insurance (UHI), based on the very efficient Dutch model – but adapted to Irish circumstances"

The Dutch model has compulsary (with some opt outs) state insurance for long term care and private strictly regulated insurance for other health care.
When FG say they will adapt this model for the Irish circumstances, actually they look at a Van Gogh and decide to sketch a cow in the field on the back of a sheet of paper.
FG will not have compulsary state insurance for long term care, they will totally privatise insurance to administer the system but retain the restricted medical card system.
Any resemblance to the Dutch model will be purely coincidental.
Even with that, the Dutch model has not proven itself to be more efficient than what existed before nor has it reduced costs.

When FG write "adapting to Irish circumstances" means adapting a decent enough structure down to the level of cheap suit dysfunctional capabilities of the FG leaders.

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Originally Posted by geysir

You might well worry about FG policies, the destructive core is all hidden in obfuscation.
One FG spoof is about the Health system. FG say they want to adopt the Dutch model.

The actual text in the FG manifesto reads
"Our ultimate goal is to establish a system of Universal Health Insurance (UHI), based on the very efficient Dutch model – but adapted to Irish circumstances"

The Dutch model has compulsary (with some opt outs) state insurance for long term care and private strictly regulated insurance for other health care.
When FG say they will adapt this model for the Irish circumstances, actually they look at a Van Gogh and decide to sketch a cow in the field on the back of a sheet of paper.
FG will not have compulsary state insurance for long term care, they will totally privatise insurance to administer the system but retain the restricted medical card system.
Any resemblance to the Dutch model will be purely coincidental.
Even with that, the Dutch model has not proven itself to be more efficient than what existed before nor has it reduced costs.

When FG write "adapting to Irish circumstances" means adapting a decent enough structure down to the level of cheap suit dysfunctional capabilities of the FG leaders.

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Geysir, I don't necessarily disagree with you, but I detest rambling diatribes about how things are going to be **** because of a wild guess at the details of something. Do you have anything to base your assertions on, or have you just decided that FG can't possibly get it right*.

*Granted, it's healthcare, no one ever gets it right, and if they did, local interests would immediately bring the system down.

SBP Red C poll: FG: 39% (+1), Lab: 17% (-3), FF: 16% (+1), SF: 12% (+2), Grns: 2% (-1), Ind: 14% (nc)

And the Sindo one is...



FF 16% (+4), FG 37% (-1) Lab 20% (-3) Grn 1% (-) SF 12% (+2) Ind 14% (-2)

Enda is also the more popular choice for Taoiseach in both polls.

Now,that my friends is a turnaround and a half.

TV is a powerful judge of a political leader. Gilmore was well ahead until the soundbites stopped and the debating started.

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Originally Posted by mypost

TV is a powerful judge of a political leader. Gilmore was well ahead until the soundbites stopped and the debating started.

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I don't think that's true - it's more that the FG/FF campaigns have been better about portraying that, and Labour have had a poor campaign. They've got the opposite of the "big mo" and it's hard to turn that around. Started with a few poor performances by Joan Burton, and then the right wing media bricking it about the possibility of a left wing alternative which raised it's head after the byelection, which lead to constant attacks on Labour, SF (who have also suffered from this) and the ULA.

There haven't been any media attacks on Labour from what I can see. Gilmore has brought all the grief on his party by himself. His posters, (for a party which currently has as little as 20 seats) looked preposterous. His debating skills when it mattered, fell well short of the public's expectations. He and his party haven't slipped so far so fast in the polls for no reason.

There are good people in Labour, strong candidates, but if he doesn't get into office, he will have to step down, and Labour will have to do more soul-searching. Labour won't have such an open-goal against FF again.

While I agree that Labour have run a pretty dreadful campaign, the bias of the likes of the Indo against them is constant.

Just because you believe the myth mypost, doesn't make it true.

The bias isn't just against Labour, it's against the left in general. It doesn't matter how many economists agree with the shinners on the nonsense of the EU/IMF deal, the media is still happy to portray them as some sort of nutjobs who haven't a clue. Now maybe they are, but there's enough academic support for their viewpoint that at least makes it a valid opinion.

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Originally Posted by Macy

Just because you believe the myth mypost, doesn't make it true.

The bias isn't just against Labour, it's against the left in general. It doesn't matter how many economists agree with the shinners on the nonsense of the EU/IMF deal, the media is still happy to portray them as some sort of nutjobs who haven't a clue. Now maybe they are, but there's enough academic support for their viewpoint that at least makes it a valid opinion.

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It's always the way. For an extreme case, look at the US. When your news is delivered by major for-profit corporations, of course they aren't going to encourage the idea of higher taxation and improved public services. And the state broadcasters are always obliged to be impartial, it's all very one-sided.

Not sure if this is the final opinion poll, but the Indo has FG and Labour holding steady and FF back to Cowenesque support levels:

FG 38% (+1)
Lab: 20% (0)
Ind: 16% (+2)
FF: 14% (-2)
SF: 11% (-1)
GP: 1% (0)

This is he final opinion poll... FG hit the magic number...

RedC/PaddyPower 23rd Feb: FG 40 +1, Lab 18 +1, FF 15 -1, SF 10 -1, Green 3 +1, Ind 14

It's still not enough imo. FF got 41% on results day last time, and got 78 seats. Based on that, FG need another 2-3% to get into majority territory.

But FG will be more transfer friendly than FF ever were.. could be a close run thing.

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Originally Posted by Mr A

But FG will be more transfer friendly than FF ever were.. could be a close run thing.

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And they still have the big mo - they're still going up in the polls, even if it is in within the margin of error.

I've paid very little attention to the polls this time around, they've proved complete nonsense every year I've watched them. The gate polls are really the only ones that matter, and even they've been known to get it very, very wrong.

I haven't paid much attention to the polls either. It's worrying if most of the people only makes their minds up over the last few weeks. The last few years give a good indication. When FG and Labour were last in power they did a good job. If one or both are given the opportunity again, I hope they can do so again.

FF wil do better than most experts expect. The personal factor will kick in, people I've spoken to have said no way would they vote FF but when pressed admit they will vote for their local canidate.

FG could be on the cusp of an overall majority but I think will fall about 10 seats short.

Labour will do well by its own standards, but will fall well short of what they expect.

The Greens will come back with one maybe two seats.

Sinn Fein will have about 8-10 seats and will be below their own expectations.

Independents will be the major winners, if enough get elected FG could lead a Government with independents and without Labour. This is their prefered option. If this comes to pass I think we could be headed for an election in 2013. Enda Kenny will then be seen as either a very good or very bad leader. I think the latter and FF will have had two years to rebuild its reputation, and could be back in the game again.

I predict

FG 73
FF 34
Lab 33
SF 8
Green 1
Ind 17 (Inc small parties Socialist parties)

You've 5 too many there....

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Originally Posted by Dodge

You've 5 too many there....

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166 seats in the dail - am I adding them wrong? (again)

Harry McGee from the Irish Times:

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My predictions: Fine Gael 79; Fianna Fail 21; Labour 34; Sinn Fein 10; Independents 16; ULA 3; GP 2.

If the Greeen Party lose those two seats, the gains will go to ULA (1) and Lab (1).

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Originally Posted by The Dark Knight

166 seats in the dail - am I adding them wrong? (again)

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Nah, must've read them wrong - apologies! Only 165 up for election BTW (CC is automatic)

I'd say FG will fall just short of a majority, not quite enough to do a deal with independents:

FG 78
Lab 35
FF 22
SF 13
Ind 18 (United Left 4)
Greens 0

I think the FF voters will come out of the woodwork again, but I hope they don't get as many seats as Dark Knight predicts; and I'd like to see SF get more than he predicts. I'd also love to see FG get a kick at the ballot box at the expense of Labour, they'd make a bad situation worse if they get in on their own. I'd like to see them in coalition with a strong Labour. (Ideally I'd like it the other way around, with different leaders, but that's not going to happen.)