Discussion on a United or re-partitioned Ireland

I once read a piece by Seamus Mallon in which he said that the British Establishment reached a consensus back in the 1970s to get out of Ireland. He then rather cryptically explained that he was referring to the establishment, as opposed to the political establishment.

Partition was as much a mistake for the British as it was for the Irish. It was an embarrassment when criticising the Russians and Chinese for their human rights abuses during the cold war. It still manages to cause tension in the relationship with the United States. The value of the strategic position it offered evaporated within a few years of partition. Constitutionally neutral Ireland is about as inert a neighbour any country could hope to have, and our position within the EU will offer a de facto voice for British interests within the EU, as more often than not whatever is in our interest is in theirs also.

Brexit obviously going to be a disaster for the British but perhaps getting rid of Ulster is being looked at as something of a silver lining among those people who run the country.

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Originally Posted by backstothewall

Brexit obviously going to be a disaster for the British but perhaps getting rid of Ulster is being looked at as something of a silver lining among those people who run the country.

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Careful where you go with that.

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Originally Posted by Mr A

No way I'd ever support Donegal being thrown in with the loonies across the border.

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Originally Posted by nigel-harps1954

Careful where you go with that.

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Why don't you guys have a chat and decide if you want to be thrown in with us loonies or not. I can't keep up!

http://www.dundalkdemocrat.ie/news/h...secretary.html

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a7972596.html

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-41427667

Things moving rapidly. I'd be surprised if even half of what is happening is happening publicly.

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Originally Posted by backstothewall

I once read a piece by Seamus Mallon in which he said that the British Establishment reached a consensus back in the 1970s to get out of Ireland. He then rather cryptically explained that he was referring to the establishment, as opposed to the political establishment.

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Was he referring to the economic establishment (i.e. those who control capital) or who? I get the impression that the British media establishment aren't quite on board with the idea of cutting the north adrift just yet or they'd surely be making a bigger deal out of the annual subvention (which is, of course, life-support for a failed project and one if the costs of the crippling decision to partition Ireland; not necessarily the price of unity, as is often claimed by unity-sceptics), although the recent rumblings and negative publicity in the English media over the Tory-DUP bung might be a sign of changing attitudes across the water and of more uncertain times ahead for political unionism as a whole here.

I think things are looking ominous for political unionism in the long run. Brexit will be its death-knell, which is sort of ironic and tragicomical given the DUP's reckless devotion to it. Fintan O'Toole put it brilliantly in a previous article of his when he wrote:

"And then the DUP went to the big Brexit roulette and put all its chips on red, white and blue. The only way to acquit the party on the charge of idiocy is to find it guilty of an enormous bluff. It thought it could indulge itself in some ultra-British flag-waving but with no real-world consequences. It would back Brexit and be secretly delighted when it lost.

The gambit was especially reckless for a party for whom the union is its whole raison d’être. The English nationalists who drove Brexit don’t really care about the union – under the rhetorical covers, they will ditch Northern Ireland and Scotland if need be. They were playing with loose change. The DUP was playing with the deeds to its house."

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Originally Posted by backstothewall

http://www.dundalkdemocrat.ie/news/h...secretary.html

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a7972596.html

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-41427667

Things moving rapidly. I'd be surprised if even half of what is happening is happening publicly.

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That Independent article's sub-title states:

"Exclusive: The move, which would involve customs checks taking place at ports on the Irish sea, has the support of all major political groups."

More British media DUP-bashing; the party's status humiliatingly downgraded now to minnow level. :giggle:

A promising LucidTalk poll for Irish unity down the line: https://sluggerotoole.com/2017/10/25...l-irish-unity/

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Originally Posted by David McCann

The poll found that more than 60% of respondents thought a poll should be held within the next 10 years.

One of the more interesting findings was that 56% of the 18-44 year old respondents said they would vote Yes in a potential referendum.

Overall around 55% of respondents favour Northern Ireland staying within the UK.

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More on it here: http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/ne...-36261684.html

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Originally Posted by DannyInvincible

A promising LucidTalk poll for Irish unity down the line: https://sluggerotoole.com/2017/10/25...l-irish-unity/



More on it here: http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/ne...-36261684.html

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Much more realistic figures than the nonsense published in the NI Life & Times survey down the years.

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Originally Posted by backstothewall

Much more realistic figures than the nonsense published in the NI Life & Times survey down the years

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Why are the other recent surveys nonsense? Apart from you not agreeing with them obviously...

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Originally Posted by Gather round

Why are the other recent surveys nonsense? Apart from you not agreeing with them obviously...

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That's a fair question, but there is a good answer.

Because the methodology they use is flawed. The data is gathered using face to face public interviews, which are notoriously unreliable. Many people lie because they are being asked about these things in public and want to seem moderate. Not just in NI. It's a phenomenon anywhere such research is done.

Lucidtalk use anonymous online surveys, and have a model which adjusts the raw data to produce representative cross-sample of society in the north. They have also established their credibility with extremely accurate predictions in recent elections and the Brexit referendum.

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Originally Posted by backstothewall

That's a fair question, but there is a good answer.

Because the methodology they use is flawed. The data is gathered using face to face public interviews, which are notoriously unreliable. Many people lie because they are being asked about these things in public and want to seem moderate. Not just in NI. It's a phenomenon anywhere such research is done.

Lucidtalk use anonymous online surveys, and have a model which adjusts the raw data to produce representative cross-sample of society in the north. They have also established their credibility with extremely accurate predictions in recent elections and the Brexit referendum

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Thanks, the general point is fair and tends to universal as you suggest. There should be a trend towards all pollsters upping their game and using the most reliable interview methods. Once that's established we should get a more accurate picture.

Meanwhile, NI Nationalists come out as immoderate. Who'd have thought it?

And NI unionists don't care about appearing to be moderate. Again, who would have thought it?

The lucidtalk poll is a marked improvement in the data available but it won't mean much until it has been run over 5-10 tears and a trendline can be established.

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Originally Posted by backstothewall

And NI unionists don't care about appearing to be moderate. Again, who would have thought it?

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Naughty ;)

DUP hack Christopher Stalford when interviewed recently about the situation in Catalonia made the very reasonable point that riot Police beating up old women at a polling station rather loses you credibility as a civilised country. CS is the same age as foot.ie stripling Danny Invincible (early 30s) but moderate views aside has the manner of many politicians twice his age...

Discussion continued from this thread:

http://foot.ie/threads/147164-Eligib...s-Okay/page372

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Originally Posted by Straightstory

There's a nasty sectarianism evident in this thread

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I wouldn't go that far, though admittedly the bantz gets a bit edgy sometimes ;)

Edit: what Bonnie and BttW said basically

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Originally Posted by Fixer82

I wish NI well and...I believe most ROI fans are of a similar disposition

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Ta. I accept that the rivalry is a bit skewed. Many of our fans have become more hostile in recent years. Personally, I'm happy to wish you well tomorrow: my preference an exciting score-draw.

Fixer, have another look at my post #7413 which you quoted. I didn't say no-one in the Falls Road or beyond spoke Irish. I'm in town regularly and honestly can't remember the last time I heard a conversation in the language in the street. Slightly less anecdotally, I don't see commerce responding to a demand for Irish much beyond signs for Cead Mille Failte in Gaelic script. I accept there's relative growth but in absolute terms it's insignificant.

For what it's worth I regularly criticise NI and its institutions, including on here. I've never supported anything regal nor monarchic. I support an Irish Language Act (again recorded here), I just don't see it as important enough to justify paralysing local government as I said. So by all means defend your corner, but there's no need for cliched Shinner rhetoric. And I largely agree re Ulster Scots which is neither language nor dialect but English with a few regional words.

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Originally Posted by BttW

I'm not going to address the stuff about the Irish language etc as it's beyond even a tenuous connection to football

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They both have a connection if not to each other directly but to the real issue here, ie wider NI politics. We were getting along fine (sorry) agreeing about 95% of the narrow football issue as you said, then you chose to widen it so I responded in kind.

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I'm curious about this. What would nationalism accepting a compromise in this matter look like? If that would be us not grumbling about the flag being a sectarian relic of a disgraced regime then I think we would accept it

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Aye, that would be fine as I've always said. Your other point is a straw man if applied to me: I've no problem with you supporting the South, or Shane Duffy playing for them (my man of the match in both your last two games btw)

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The trouble you have is that FIFA is just about the biggest organisation in the world who recognise that flag as representing NI

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Well, they are pretty big and Worldwide. I don't see it as problematic as you do. We're a small region of a large country, almost no-one beyond Ireland is that bothered about which flag we use. We get to play international football largely through historical accident and hopefully will do for long yet.

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I'd say, and i believe you expressed a similar view above, is that you guys should want something new without any baggage for your own reasons

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I said I wanted a distinct anthem and would accept a different flag. But not quite similar, because I think whatever the new versions were they'd carry baggage- basically because many Nationalists would say they were unrepresentative.

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By grasping the nettle and enduring a little difficulty with a section of your fanbase in the short term you could put the issue to bed

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Disagree. As above the biggest problem isn't fans in the short-term (although they would gurn, inevitably) but never-to-be fans in the longer. I made this broad point to a guy on another forum recently- he suggested that, had the IFA moved to a new stadium at Long Kesh, Nationalist opinion would have welcomed and enthused about it. In reality they would have continued to criticise as before.

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I recognise it isn't fair to expect a football association to take the lead ahead of unionist leaders in society

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Up to a point. The IFA get enough deserved stick for being administratively incompetent, they aren't likely to invite more from Unionist hacks and journos. The annual poppy fetish is telling- they do what the Daily Mail tells them because the English FA does too. More cheerfully, in recent months there's been talk of England teams dropping GSTQ to use summat else. That might have a knock-on for us.

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Originally Posted by Gather round

Personally, I'm happy to wish you well tomorrow: my preference an exciting score-draw.
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Does not compute!

Come on, there's plenty of credit in drawing with a higher seed?

We have slightly higher ambitions than drawing with mediocrity. As hard to believe as that might be.

Top class wumming.

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Originally Posted by BonnieShels

We have slightly higher ambitions than drawing with mediocrity. As hard to believe as that might be

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Rest assured I understand and admire your ambition. I just don't want it achieved all at once. Think of it as deferred gratification or similar.

Need a better contribution from the boy Eriksen mind.

Charlie- if that's directed at me, you know I'd prefer Denmark to progress. I'd only be winding you up if I fibbed about it.

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Originally Posted by Gather round

Rest assured I understand and admire your ambition. I just don't want it achieved all at once. Think of it as deferred gratification or similar.

Need a better contribution from the boy Eriksen mind.

Charlie- if that's directed at me, you know I'd prefer Denmark to progress. I'd only be winding you up if I fibbed about it.

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Is it irony that this thread is now being derailed by off-topic comment about the match tomorrow night? :P

I've a question for our Northern brethren: what flag would you consider suitable in the event of a United Ireland?

I'll assume the tricolour was off the table as an option.

And for those of a Nationalist persuasion: would you concede the loss of the tricolour, for a United Ireland?

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Originally Posted by Kingdom

And for those of a Nationalist persuasion: would you concede the loss of the tricolour, for a United Ireland?

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Sure. It's a piece of cloth, and nothing worth delaying unification over if such a process was agreed upon by both sides of the border.

In theory, the tricolor should be perfect as an All-Ireland flag, considering what the colours are actually supposed to represent. But it can't be separated from its identity as a symbol of the Republic. The Harp with a green background might be a good option.

Paddy's Saltire for me.

Can't imagine people will be too enamoured with a Leinster symbol over the whole State. :)

https://i.imgur.com/PY2plD8.jpg

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-hAGb3hKhrK...sh_english.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/g8MK7XX.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/4k5cWbm.jpg

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Originally Posted by Gather round

https://i.imgur.com/PY2plD8.jpg

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What would that monstrosity achieve?

Four Provinces flag and be done with it!

Four province flag? I'm not a fan of a flag that needs multiple sentences to explain.

I'd sacrifice a kidney for a united Ireland. Would I give up the tricolour? In a heartbeat

What about this

Attachment 2618

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Originally Posted by Gather round

https://i.imgur.com/g8MK7XX.jpg

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WTF??

An interesting video here from 2014 where Arlene Foster, in talking up the benefits of devolution at a time of political difficulty, states (or perhaps warns even) unequivocally that "direct rule" would actually entail joint authority:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zem9RHxo9bs

That's not what the DUP have been saying of late; lately, the DUP have threatened to pull the plug on their confidence-and-supply arrangement with the Tories if the Tories were to grant Dublin greater say.

The acknowledgement by all parties concerned - including the DUP - of the necessity to prioritise the all-island economy in the Brexit talks is a validation of the logic behind the economic argument for Irish unity. To the best of my knowledge, nobody campaigned for a hard border over the past few weeks, so can it be assumed we're all economic united Irelanders now?

Varadkar also said yesterday: "There will be no hard border on the island and you will never again be left behind by an Irish government."

That's an interesting and heartening statement of intent from a Blueshirt. It is also an implicit but welcome acknowledgement that the south has previously left northern nationalists behind and of the unsatisfactory nature of this. The mood is certainly changing and it's very promising for unity proponents.

Fianna Fail touted earlier this year that they were putting together a white paper on how to get to a United Ireland. Whatever happened to that idea?

Wow!

Fermanagh elected to stay in Ulster. The more you know!

https://www.facebook.com/Meanwhilein...6297035211733/

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Originally Posted by BonnieShels

Wow!

Fermanagh elected to stay in Ulster. The more you know!

https://www.facebook.com/Meanwhilein...6297035211733/

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That's borderline parody. Other selected gems of nonsense:

"[The border] was created in 1922 when Ireland became a Free State and Ulster remained British."

"This crow's foot on the bridge [in Pettigo] marks the exact spot where I can step out of Britain and into the Irish Republic."

"That meant that the people of Pettigo suddenly found themselves split by an international border. On that side [Fermanagh], they were British in largely-Protestant Ulster and on this side [Donegal, which is also in Ulster], Irish, in the largely-Catholic Free State of Éire."

"True enough, a few Protestants headed back over the border from this side into Britain."

:rolleyes:

The claim that Fermanagh elected to stay in the UK is ridiculous. Fermanagh's county council actually expressed the exact opposite. They refused to recognise partition and pledged allegiance to Dáil Eireann, but their protest and voice was quickly suppressed by the northern authorities: https://itsapoliticalworld.wordpress...-six-counties/

"Fermanagh CC passed the following motion on 21st December 1921;

'We, the County Council of Fermanagh, in view of the expressed desire of a large majority of people in this country, do not recognize the partition parliament in Belfast and do hereby direct our secretary to hold no further communications with either Belfast or British local governments, and we pledge our allegiance to Dáil Eireann.'

The RIC seized their offices, sacked officials and the County Council was dissolved and replaced by Commissioners. Armagh, Keady and Newry Urban Councils, Downpatrick Town Commissioners, Cookstown, Downpatrick, Kilkeel, Lisnaskea, Strabane, Magherafelt, and Newry 1 & 2 Rural Councils as well as some Boards of Poor Law Guardians were all similarly dissolved and replaced by commissioners by April 1922. Derry remained.

To permanently deal with the problem, for the following local elections, PR was abolished, and all councilors were obliged to swear an oath to the crown. Our friend Dawson Bates then appointed Sir John Leech as the man to redraw boundaries, which he did at a rapid pace often giving locals only one week to make submissions – nationalists tended to boycott this absurdity. The plan worked excellently – after the 1924 local elections only 2 of the eighty councils were nationalist. Gerrymandering went on, Armagh Urban Council (Nationalist) was dissolved in 1934 and was only set back up again in 1946 with new wards and a unionist majority. Over these years Derry was re-jigged on a number of occasions."

It's a borderline parody!

Further interesting reading here from David McWilliams on northern demographics, the disparity between the stagnant northern and vibrant southern economies in Ireland and what all this could mean for the survival of the northern statelet: http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2017/1...nomic-vibrancy

Another article (in the unionist Belfast Telegraph) forecasting economic gloom for the north: https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/b...-36391516.html

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Originally Posted by John Mulgrew

The increasingly faster expansion of the economy in the Republic - three times that of Northern Ireland - could advance further amid predictions of slow job creation here over the next two years, new research has shown.

EY's Economic Eye is forecasting 4.9% growth in the Republic this year, compared with just 1.4% in Northern Ireland. And the economy here is also predicted to see GDP growth of just 1.1% in 2018.

The jobs market is also predicted to expand at a much slower level in Northern Ireland, with just 5,800 new posts created here by 2020.

Neil Gibson, chief economist with EY in Ireland, said the real concern for Northern Ireland is an increased pressure on consumers and their incomes. "The real story is if we are looking at pay rises either side of 2% across the island, that's a pay cut in Northern Ireland but a rise in the Republic.

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'Prominent nationalists ask taoiseach to protect northern citizens' rights': https://www.irishnews.com/news/brexi...ights-1207622/

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Originally Posted by The Irish News

INFLUENTIAL figures within northern nationalism – including the GAA – have penned an open letter to Taoiseach Leo Varadkar urging him to act to protect the rights of Irish citizens in the north. Signatories include former All-Ireland-winning Tyrone captain Peter Canavan as well as Republic of Ireland soccer international James McClean and boxers Paddy Barnes and Michael Conlon.

Prominent lawyers, business leaders, and figures from academia, the community, education and sports sectors have also signed the unprecedented open letter carried in The Irish News today. They call on the Irish government, as a co-guarantor of the Good Friday Agreement, to use its influence to end the political crisis. They outline how the stalled Stormont process and Brexit have led to a sense of abandonment not felt since the country was partitioned.

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Originally Posted by NeverFeltBetter

Fianna Fail touted earlier this year that they were putting together a white paper on how to get to a United Ireland. Whatever happened to that idea?

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They could only find brown paper.

Came across this today during a bout of procrastination:

Modelling Irish Unification by KL Consulting, Vancouver, BC

http://www.klconsult.ca/irish-unification-modeling-.pdf