Euro 2012 General Discussion

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Originally Posted by geysir

Just to let some facts get in the way of debate

From the Journal of Sports Sciences, success rate at Finals competition

• First kick 86.6%
• Second kick 81.7%
• Third kick 79.3%
• Fourth kick 72.5%
• Fifth kick 80%
• ‘Sudden death’ kicks 64.3%
• These results highlight the increasing pressure as the competition progresses and may also highlight the ‘best player should go first’ fallacy. The idea of ‘getting off to a good start’ by putting the best penalty taker first appears wrong as there is least pressure on this kick.
  
  
  
  
  Of course this research falls flat if it was found that teams do put their best penalty taker first :)

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Indeed and I expect teams do put their best player first. Then next best second etc....
There is also some good reason for the last player to one of the best if not second best perhaps but I am not sure if is actually a good idea. From a mathematical point of view it is always best to play the best player available.

Indeed I think we witness the flaw in putting one of your best players last and that is that you may well be out of the competition before his turn comes round.

BBC going on and on about putting your best penalty takers first whereas Bruno alves took one before Ronaldo, but not mentioning that Pique and Ramos both took theirs before Fabregas.

I'm sure that if Ronaldo had scored the 4th and Alves missed the 5th they would have complained about Portugal not keeping a stronger player for the last penalty.

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Originally Posted by ArdeeBhoy

Tricky is right on this one I reckon.
:rolleyes:

The no.of shoot-outs at the top level where the side missing first progresses is unreal. The only time I recall that not happening was this year's Chumps Lge. Final...

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Well I was aware of it seemed to be the case against Italy but not that it might be wider spread than that (if indeed it is).

That's 3 games now in a row that were borefests. Spain bailed out their manager last night. Crazy tactics and bad substitutions. Maybe the international game isnt all that. Watching Spain play is certainly no Ac Milan or Ajax.

I am not a cricket fan at all but, Im sure I've heard/read in the past that the batting order is always 'best first' and so on. Get runs on the board like. It was a gamble leaving Ronaldo to be 5th pen and Portugal possibly being being out by then. Anyone think there was an element of taking the 5th penalty being likely to be the 'glory' penalty that might have come in to it? Probably not but just thought I'd throw that in to the mix.

Geysir - The first pen of each team was missed last night, so at odds with those stats!


From the BBC

"We had this plan," the 43-year-old coach admitted after the semi-final.

"If it would have been 4-4 and he would have taken the last penalty, we would be talking in a different way."

Real Madrid star Ronaldo, 27, endured a frustrating evening, seeing a number of free-kicks sail harmlessly away from Spanish keeper Iker Casillas's goal.

He then watched in dismay as first Joao Moutinho's penalty was saved, then Bruno Alves hit the bar with his effort. Spain substitute Cesc Fabregas slotted home the winner to send Bento's men home and Spain into the final.

Alves's penalty miss was all the more acute as the defender had appeared set to take the preceding spot kick before midfielder Nani rushed to intercept his team-mate.

Its an interesting one with regards Bruno Alves. My initial reaction was 'what are they doing' this is going to backfire, Nani will miss now with all the confusion. Then I thought, it was brave of them to pull Alves out if they were concerned he didnt look up to the task and then Nani went on to score. However, I was wrong on both counts, Alves simply couldnt count and then went on to miss anyway.

I would have liked to see Portugal go through.

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Originally Posted by Junior

I am not a cricket fan at all but, Im sure I've heard/read in the past that the batting order is always 'best first' and so on. Get runs on the board like.

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It's not quite as simple as that. You have specialist opening batsmen who are good at playing themselves in, steadying the ship and building a platform for the rest of the team. They're not necessarily regarded as the best batsmen in the side. Sometimes tail-enders are promoted up the order so as to protect the wicket of a higher order batsman overnight if a wicket has been taken late in the day.

Whoooshhhhh!!!!

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Originally Posted by Junior

I am not a cricket fan at all but, Im sure I've heard/read in the past that the batting order is always 'best first' and so on. Get runs on the board like. It was a gamble leaving Ronaldo to be 5th pen and Portugal possibly being being out by then. Anyone think there was an element of taking the 5th penalty being likely to be the 'glory' penalty that might have come in to it? Probably not but just thought I'd throw that in to the mix.

Geysir - The first pen of each team was missed last night, so at odds with those stats!

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The first penalty missed last night is not at odds with those statistics.
Those stats go up to 2006.
The missed first penalties from last night would be part another batch of statistics, which may or may not read different to the stats I posted :)

A cricket aficionado (and I am not one) would tell you that a penalty shoot out is not cricket. A cricket commentator would be baffled trying to make head or tail out of what transpires at the end of a drawn semi final. The batting order in a game of cricket is based on certain principles which do not necessarily apply to a penalty shoot out.

Offhand I don't know if there is any particular outstanding approach a team uses towards penalty shoot outs. I certainly have no definite opinions, just an interest. I only suggested a reason as to why Ronaldo went for the 5th one. i don't know why he did, but I doubt if it was that he picked the 5th straw :)
Does a team generally put out their established top penalty taker first, in a penalty shoot out?

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Originally Posted by osarusan

BBC going on and on about putting your best penalty takers first whereas Bruno alves took one before Ronaldo, but not mentioning that Piquet and Ramos both took theirs before Fabregas.

I'm sure that if Ronaldo had scored the 4th and Alves missed the 5th they would have complained about Portugal not keeping a stronger player for the last penalty.

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I watched the game on BBC, I got the definite impression that they wanted Portugal to win and until ET they were begrudging the Spanish efforts. Maybe it was just their approach to this game in general, that put a dent in my mood.

BBC were incredibly negative about the game in the parts I watched over there. Gary Lineker was slating it on Twitter too. I thought it was an entertaining game, OK there were few chances but tactically it was fascinating. Portugal pressed all over the pitch and had the technical ability to hold on to possession themselves when they won the ball, some of the tackling from Moutinho et al in midfield was brilliant at times and while, overall it resulted in the teams nullifying each other Portugal, arguably, created the more clear cut chances in the 90 minutes and pressed Spain into more mistakes than anyone has done in a long time.

What peed me off about BBC was when Pique was penalised in the first half, harshly but not ridiculously, for winning a header while having his arm over his opponent's shoulder.

Keown then said "It's fast becoming that you can't even jump anymore". That's just ******. The Greek guy was hard done by in game 1 but that type of offence has barely been a theme of this or any other tournament in my opinion. It was just a tough decision on Pique, only that.

Then they missed the ref's whistle when Nani was fould but stayed on his feet. Ref should have played advantage but their commentary suggested he blew late, which he didn't.

Also, Nani could have stayed on his feet in another incident but didn't. He was fouled but his actions following the foul misled the ref, understandably in my opinion, into thinking he was conning him.

There was no understanding of this.

Then the ref rightly spotted a clear foul that Keown thought was a dive. Keown immediately pulled up the ref and when being clearly contradicted in the replay only barely and begruidgingly accepted it saying (again wrongly) that "yer man went down easily though" when he was actually tripped up.

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Originally Posted by geysir

The first penalty missed last night is not at odds with those statistics.
Those stats go up to 2006.
The missed first penalties from last night would be part another batch of statistics, which may or may not read different to the stats I posted :)

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The stats suggested the first penalty was easiest of 5? However, I do concede that they didnt suggest they were unmissable:D

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Originally Posted by geysir

A cricket aficionado (and I am not one) would tell you that a penalty shoot out is not cricket. A cricket commentator would be baffled trying to make head or tail out of what transpires at the end of a drawn semi final. The batting order in a game of cricket is based on certain principles which do not necessarily apply to a penalty shoot out.

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Those cricket oficionados certainly know how to state the bleeding obvious. Note to self must ensure analogies have more humour attached to them.

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Originally Posted by geysir

Offhand I don't know if there is any particular outstanding approach a team uses towards penalty shoot outs. I certainly have no definite opinions, just an interest. I only suggested a reason as to why Ronaldo went for the 5th one. i don't know why he did, but I doubt if it was that he picked the 5th straw :)
Does a team generally put out their established top penalty taker first, in a penalty shoot out?

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Im not sure tbh but it just seems a bit of a bizarre decision to put your established penalty taker last in the queue of 5 when there is every chance the lesser established penalty takers go before you and presumably have a higher chance of missing - thus leaving you with a higher chance of not ever getting to take yours!!

However, we all know at that stage the 'best' often miss theirs & the duds (Cascarino Italy90) can put theirs away!!

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Originally Posted by Stuttgart88

What peed me off about BBC was when Pique was penalised in the first half, harshly but not ridiculously, for winning a header while having his arm over his opponent's shoulder.

Keown then said "It's fast becoming that you can't even jump anymore".

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Yeah, Keown was in a grumpy mood alright.

Basically this has been a 2 group Euro finals, groups b&c. You'd have to concede that Germany have the big advantage going into tonight's game. They've been building this team since 2006, have some quality players, an experienced squad with depth and playing some of the best attractive football at international level, not to mention an easy run out in the 1/4 finals, an extra couple of days rest and a first team all fit and suspension free.
Nevertheless I'm more partial towards scandal, chaos, unpredictable factors which might turn out brilliant and a 33 year old midfielder who'll still run the legs off any younger pretender and still exemplify the attributes of a timeless art over and above what modernity was brought to the game.

Italy are gradually getting better as the tournament goes on, like always. Andremember Germany have never beaten Italy in a competitive tournament match bar at U21 level.

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Originally Posted by passinginterest

BBC were incredibly negative about the game in the parts I watched over there. Gary Lineker was slating it on Twitter too. I thought it was an entertaining game, OK there were few chances but tactically it was fascinating. Portugal pressed all over the pitch and had the technical ability to hold on to possession themselves when they won the ball, some of the tackling from Moutinho et al in midfield was brilliant at times and while, overall it resulted in the teams nullifying each other Portugal, arguably, created the more clear cut chances in the 90 minutes and pressed Spain into more mistakes than anyone has done in a long time.

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Nice post. I was very entertained by it also, and felt the BBC gave little or no awareness of how well Portugal did in doing what we are repeatedly told cannot be done, they shut Spain down, shut the game down for large parts. I found it fascinating. However, it did reveal that when two technically proficient, possession led sides refuse to let the other have the ball, it can end up looking a lot like any two sides who cannot keep it, and the BBC treated it like this, which I think was wrong of them.

Also there was humour in Keown repeatedly saying 'he can't be a center half' as his Spanish equivalent, (Ramos or Pique) took free kicks and a superb penalty. I thought it captured how long the road ahead is for the game in England, and by extension here also.

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Originally Posted by paul_oshea

Italy are gradually getting better as the tournament goes on, like always. Andremember Germany have never beaten Italy in a competitive tournament match bar at U21 level.

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They are, the dark art of tournament football in its glory eh? The rascals.

Spain hadn't beaten France competitively till the other night either though. Cannot wait for 7.45.

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Originally Posted by Stuttgart88

What peed me off about BBC was when Pique was penalised in the first half, harshly but not ridiculously, for winning a header while having his arm over his opponent's shoulder.

Keown then said "It's fast becoming that you can't even jump anymore". That's just ******. The Greek guy was hard done by in game 1 but that type of offence has barely been a theme of this or any other tournament in my opinion. It was just a tough decision on Pique, only that.

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Houghton said exactly the same thing on RTÉ.

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Then they missed the ref's whistle when Nani was fould but stayed on his feet. Ref should have played advantage but their commentary suggested he blew late, which he didn't.

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Again Houghton made the same error.

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Also, Nani could have stayed on his feet in another incident but didn't. He was fouled but his actions following the foul misled the ref, understandably in my opinion, into thinking he was conning him.

There was no understanding of this.

Then the ref rightly spotted a clear foul that Keown thought was a dive. Keown immediately pulled up the ref and when being clearly contradicted in the replay only barely and begruidgingly accepted it saying (again wrongly) that "yer man went down easily though" when he was actually tripped up.

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RTÉ made the same mistake.

The difference was made though when it cuts back to studio.

I throughly enjoyed the match last night (bar the result) and I was gutted for Portugal. They were excellent and their game plan was fantastic.

Coentrao and Moutinho were excellent.
I would have taken Nani off with 15 to go (or even switched Christy over to the right every so often to mix it up a bit) as he wasn't being as effective and I think that with the addition of Varela earlier on Portugal could have won it. By the time he came on the rest of the team were knackered.

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Originally Posted by CraftyToePoke

Nice post. I was very entertained by it also, and felt the BBC gave little or no awareness of how well Portugal did in doing what we are repeatedly told cannot be done, they shut Spain down, shut the game down for large parts. I found it fascinating.

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Indo had a good point this morning, saying that Hansen and the RTE trio have made a career out of criticising bad defending and once we good defending they complain about no goals. You can't win!

http://www.independent.ie/sport/socc...s-3152719.html

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Originally Posted by passinginterest

BBC were incredibly negative about the game in the parts I watched over there. Gary Lineker was slating it on Twitter too. I thought it was an entertaining game, OK there were few chances but tactically it was fascinating. Portugal pressed all over the pitch and had the technical ability to hold on to possession themselves when they won the ball, some of the tackling from Moutinho et al in midfield was brilliant at times and while, overall it resulted in the teams nullifying each other Portugal, arguably, created the more clear cut chances in the 90 minutes and pressed Spain into more mistakes than anyone has done in a long time.

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I found it interesting watching how Portugal set out to stop the Spanish. It seemed to me that they were well disciplined without the ball, taking up lines across the pitch, but over and above that they also always had one guy breaking the line to put pressure on the guy in possession. If he didn't make the tackle he went back in to his line and let the next guy along do the pressing as Spain moved it sideways.

The Portuguese also anticipated the next move well, something you need footballing intelligence to do.

We overly rely on just keeping our lines and we're too easy to get through. Even Slovakia got between our lines easily by playing simple one-twos in Dublin.

Can anyone else try and articulate what it was Portugal did that made it effective? How would you describe what to do to your players if you were the coach?

PS: Strachan wasn't fully sure of the Portuguese coach's name on the ITV panel last night. He had to get confirmation on air that it was Bento. Good research Gordon.

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Originally Posted by Stuttgart88

I found it interesting watching how Portugal set out to stop the Spanish. It seemed to me that they were well disciplined without the ball, taking up lines across the pitch, but over and above that they also always had one guy breaking the line to put pressure on the guy in possession. If he didn't make the tackle he went back in to his line and let the next guy along do the pressing as Spain moved it sideways.

The Portuguese also anticipated the next move well, something you need footballing intelligence to do.

We overly rely on just keeping our lines and we're too easy to get through. Even Slovakia got between our lines easily by playing simple one-twos in Dublin.

Can anyone else try and articulate what it was Portugal did that made it effective?

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the RTE panel pointed out that portugal left one of the 3 spain midfield alone and just marked 2 of them. this meant that they couldnt act well as a unit and the isolated unmarked player had to move away from the usual passing through the middle of midfield. I am sure the panel were more detailed in their analysis but thats what i took from it.