With Sledge out for the Russia game, who will fill in? O'Dea at CB again? I'm not sure what to think about that one.
With Sledge out for the Russia game, who will fill in? O'Dea at CB again? I'm not sure what to think about that one.
I'd rather O'Shea and Dunne centre halves. Foley and Ward the full backs.Quote:
Originally Posted by Philly
Depressing stuff tonight, same old with our inability to beat any halfway decent team home or away.
Given - 5. Did what he had to do (which wasn't very much) well bar the one brainfart that could have gifted them a goal.
O'Shea - 4. Looked really off the pace, which in fairness to him he probably was. Got forward well although his crosses came to nothing for obvious reasons.
Dunne - 6. Strong throughout though worryingly done for pace in the second half.
St Ledger - 8. Started off poorly but really grew into the game, that block in the second half was beastly.
Ward - 2. Awful positioning, poor composure on the ball and his wayward marking seemed to not only ruin his game but McGeadys as well having to cover his ass. McGeady bailing him successfully and repeatedly was also a potential reason for Traps reluctance to bring Hunt on.
Whelan - 4. Just seems to ghost in and out of the game as per usual, some decent tackling, nothing positive in terms of possession play.
Andrews - 4. Awful for the first 60 minutes, just dire. But he seems to be a different player when the pace and tempo lifts like he was away to France, was everywhere and a serious threat and presence towards the end. Since we don't usually play with that intensity he probably shouldn't be playing for us.
McGeady - 5. Bizarre night in the sense his most positive contributions were defensively. Bailed the woeful Ward out time and time again which really stifled his attacking game where when it got going was lacking. Probably wasn't 100% so can be excused.
Duff - 9. Top notch player and ran the show, seemed like the only man in green with half a brain for much the game. Perfect crosses for both Keane and Dunne should have been goals barring poor aerial play from the two, add in a selfish Cox and a deflection and Duff could have been responsible for 4 goals here. Was literally part of everything positive we did, I'd despair playing a game without him.
Doyle - 4. Petulant performance filled with a lot of small, needless fouls. Worked hard as ever but no end product from him tonight, Slovakian defence had his number on this occasion.
Keane - 4. Keane lives and breathes on doing nothing for 90 minutes and popping up to clinically score the winner, he almost had it again tonight but wasn't to be. Hard to blame him when his midfield only created 1 clear cut chance for him.
Cox - 2. Selfish on two occasions spurning chances, his half hour won't have done him any favours tonight.
I said it before but what really puzzles me was how the gameplan appears to be whipping high balls into the opposition boxes over and over again. How exactly is that supposed to work when none of our strikers are especially good at scoring in the air? Doyle wasn't even in the box a whole lot so they were mostly aimed at keane which is just confusing. Its been a prominent strategy throughout the campaign and I can't think of any stage when its ever actually worked. Was so many groans tonight everytime O'Shea and Ward especially would overlap only to rain in some high ball for the Slovakians to comfortably clear.
Given 7 : Not troubled
O'Shea 6 : Sluggish all night and passing was poor
Dunne 6 : Caught idling with ball too much. Missed big chance at the death.
St. Leger 8 : Kept it simple all night. Epic block in 2nd half. Will be missed in Moscow.
Ward 6 : Not positive enough in attack.
Duff 7 : Our brightest spark. Was being doubled up on a still was always a theat.
Whelan 4 : Slow, didn't get on the ball enough. Out of his depth.
Andrews 3 : Gave the ball away constantly. Not good enough.
McGeady 5 : Mixed the good with the bad. Same problems he has had all his career. He doesn't strike the ball well. Didn't lack for effort.
Doyle 4 : Worst game I've seen him play for Ireland. Nothing stuck and was 2nd for the ball too often.
Keane 5 : Offers very little in open play. Missed the best chance of the night.
Subs
Cox 5 : Didn't add any spark when he came on
Hunt 7 : His mad hair lifted the crowd. Got on the ball and caused some problems.
I will never attend an international again while that relic is in charge.
Utterly incompetent tactics, inept substitutions, static and disjointed - Ireland deserved to lose.
Awful.
People who, after a week's work, go out of their way to get to a game hundreds of kilometeres away, pay at least the price of three LOI matches to get in, hike up through 6 flights of steps, watch a depressingly defeatist side play out a dire nil-all draw and trudge home again.Quote:
Originally Posted by DannyInvincible
Those people would be insane not to boo.
A disgrace - the worst thing is that the likes of Brady, Giles, McGrath and Roy Keane are all still alive to see it.
Boooooo!!!!!
If all three teams finish on the same number of points, they're distinguished by way of a sort of mini table of three.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sumac
If, for the sake of argument, all teams were on the same number of overall points right now and the group had already concluded, Slovakia would be top with 5 points from their win over Russia and two draws against us, Russia would have 3 points from their win against us and we'd have 2 from our two draws against Slovakia so we'd finish third. If we were to finish on an even number of overall points with just Slovakia, however, we'd finish ahead of them as we'd both have two points from our games against one another but as we scored an away goal in Slovakia, that would favour us.
To be fair you could stick Pep, Ferguson or Klinsmann in charge of them and theres only so much they'd be able to do with guys like Ward, Andrews and Whelan. I've yet to hear a convincing attacking gameplan a side can play with no target man and two central midfielders who don't like the ball. The fundamental problems I'm convinced is down to the players, it was incredible the number of times Ward, Andrews and McGeady would fail to retain possession tonight. The wayward passes, poor decisions and lack of confidence in attack are down to individuals.Quote:
Originally Posted by born2bwild
There are problems in our attack coaching and our incessant crossing is one of those, McGeady being allowed take free kicks is another. I don't know why Trap keeps thinking thats a good idea. On the contrary our defence is well organised, defensive set pieces drills are to perfection. Six clean sheets in a row is smashing stuff and a direct product of Traps coaching, Of course as we saw thats not good enough but I'd still be more liable to label blame with certain players being especially **** rather than the manager.
That was dissapointing. Sucked the air right out of the Irish Pub I was in it did.
A disgrace - the worst thing is that the likes of Brady, Giles, McGrath and Roy Keane are all still alive to see it.
Yes, you're right. We should kill them.
I don't buy it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Murfinator
I've seen Salthill Devon play a more competent passing game in the middle of the park twice this year than Ireland did tonight.
Trap takes to the field with a 6-man defence - the two deep lying midfielders are played purely as a shield - I refuse to believe that they are unable to play a more mobile, progressive game than that.
The full backs were so static - never looking for an overlap, never, going very far beyond the halfway line.
That's coaching - not sh1te players.
Hunt to start on tuesday? If only for his better set pieces. Duff was good but I think people are overrating him. He's desperately one footed and predictably cuts in 9 times out of ten. Ward was very poor. Cox made the right decision to shoot but should have hit target. Sledge great, should be in prem. McGeady not helped by system which completely isolates him and doesnt play to his strengths. Centre midfielders did what theyre in the team to do- pity it's so desperately dull.
The games at the beginning of the summer seem a long long time ago.
Just back and absolutely gutted. I defend this team to the end, but that was awful tonight. Yet another opportunity missed, why can't we take the bull by the horns and beat these teams at home, it really is the difference between qualification and not.
Given, oshea and particularly didn't look fit. Maybe mcgeady too who frankly was anonymous 2n. Hunt shouldve been on much earlier.
We started so well, some great passing and then for about the next 70 mins, we were dominated. Slovakia shouldve scored and were the better team in large patches.
Despite been so poor, we couldve sneaked it at the end. Keane, Cox and dunne all had good chances.
Unfortunately its all to do now and we really are up against it. We could do with both results going our way on tues, a draw in moscow and a draw in slovakia would be fantastic.
Just to remind you on that I tipped Hungary to beat Sweden :) Pity we didn't get the 3 points as we would have been fancied to get the best 2nd spot. But it's not over until it's over. Now we will be more of a loose cannon in Russia rather than satisfied with a draw.Quote:
Originally Posted by DannyInvincible
Slovakia played well and we had so many players struggling to string a pass. St Ledger who most everybody is praising for his sterling defense duties, was poor with the ball at his feet, O'Shea was hardly better than awkward, McGeady ran out steam mid 2nd half and should have been replaced on the hour by Hunt. Hunt's contribution after his late introduction is being overegged, Doyle was lost throughout. Given's kick outs were often desperately poor. On the plus side - Ward did okay on his competitive debut considering the rest of the disfunction, McGeady did sterling work defending Ward's flank, both he and Duff stood out with defensive duties.
In the last minute of injury time in the Russia Macedonia game, the Macedonian goalie threw the ball to the LB, who went on a run retaining the ball, some interaction and set up a gilt edge last chance for them, whereas we just lump it time and time again in those last 15 minutes.
At the core of the disfunction is centre midfield and that had nothing to do with caution, just inadequate ability to do the bits that Trap gives them full license to do
Hard to believe we could have won that game.
Traps hopes of a new contract could be gone by tuesday night. Can't lose 2n. We were just too negative 2n. No overlaps from the full backs, no creativity. The slovaks set out their stall and bar some long balls at the end, there wasn't much we could do about it. In fact once they realised this, it was they who bossed us.
Playing away from home does suit our style and I can only pray that it works next tues.
There are plenty of lads in the LOI that could do the job Whelan and Andrews do.
I'm starting to think I could do it myself.
I find it very easy to believe they're unable to play a more progressive game than that. Keep in mind Andrews is a guy that has been shipped off to the championship because he couldn't cut it in the premier league, Whelan will likely meet the same fate with Stoke shelling out 6m to replace him. They play the exact same limited game for their clubs.Quote:
Originally Posted by born2bwild
The fullbacks did try to overlap all night which was several times almost catastrophic as our ball retention is so poor anytime a defender joined the attack you could be pretty certain we'd give the ball away and have ourselves caught out on the counter, was the same sending centre backs up for corners. Just total kamikaze doing that any more than we were with such bad ball retention. Although again bear in mind O'Shea was always a notably static Full back for Man United as well, he was there purely for defence. Ward like Whelan and Andrews is a championship quality player and yet another in the "high effort, low talent" category we seem to possess in abundance.
I'm not saying trap couldn't do better but those 3 in particular are undeniably **** players on the ball which I think is the bigger problem here.
There was one point in the second half Andrews in possession with a man closing him down either side looked visibly terrified he might actually have to play some football to get out of that situation, so much so he just ran it straight into touch.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jinxy
Some possible ramifications assuming we take 6 from our last two because we can't afford anything else really...
If we beat Russia, Slovakia beat Russia and win their other two games, with Russia winning only their other remaining game against Andorra, the table will finish as follows:
Irel. | 23
Slo. | 23
Rus. | 19
If we lose to Russia, Slovakia lose to Russia but win their other two games and Russia also win their other remaining game against Andorra, the table will finish as follows:
Rus. | 25
Irel. | 20
Slo. | 20
If we draw against Russia, Slovakia draw against Russia but win their other two games and Russia win their other game, the table will finish as follows:
Slo. | 21
Rus. | 21
Irel. | 21
If we beat Russia, Slovakia lose to Russia but win their other two and Russia win their other game, the table will finish as follows:
Irel. | 23
Rus. | 22
Slo. | 20
If we draw with Russia, Slovakia win their remaining three and Russia beat Andorra, the table will finish as follows:
Slo. | 23
Irel. | 21
Rus. | 20
This is what I think will happen, being optimistic. I think we'll draw in Russia, win our final two, Slovakia and Russia will draw, Russia will win their other remaining game and Slovakia drop two points against either Armenia or Macedonia. That would leave the table as follows:
Rus. | 21
Irel. | 21
Slo. | 19
I think my calculations are correct and there are plenty of other possible scenarios, but really, we can't afford to lose to Russia. I'm sure there's an easier way of working all possible scenarios out by drawing up some sort of graph or matrix? Any competent mathematicians out there?
We're currently the third-best second-placed team, by the way.
9 points against the "top" teams in our group and we've only taken 2. Even if we make a miracle in Moscow and win there we'll only have 5 points from 12, its not really good enough and now you have to start to question some of the squad selection. Keogh was never going to offer anything, at least Walters on the bench could have held the ball up had he been brought on for Doyle. Doyle, Keane and Cox are all a bit too similar and we needed power (Walters) or pace (maybe Best) to mix things up in attack as the Slovak defence had an easy time of it. Might have been different if Long had been playing? Is he out for Russia too or was it just a bump ?
No Sledge for the Russia game is a blow, but they'll be missing Denisov (who holds the midfield) and of course Akinfeev has been replaced by Malafeev (who's even worse than the CSKA man) - we have a chance to nick a point and then hope other results play out for us. Can we change the squad at all before Tuesday ? I'd be tempted to call up Joey O'Brien, he's been doing well for West Ham and could play on the flank instead of Ward if we shift O'Shea into the center for Sledge.
Some of the comments here are bemusing to say the least. I can't comment on performances as I don't watch the Republic's matches most of the time but judging purely on results Trappatoni is doing a fine job. Before tonight you were top of your group which contains Slovakia who made the last 16 of the World Cup just gone and Russia who have a massive pool of players, a far better domestic league, and a top manager and usually qualify for stuff. Ireland on the other hand have not qualified for anything since 2002. Until Trappatoni came along you had also not made the play-offs since that campaign.
I realise a 0-0 draw can be exceptionally dull, dire, and frustrating, but at the end of the day results are what matter. I'd take boring football if it meant we could defend and keep clean sheets. We play 'passing football', but it's not playing to our strengths, and can be equally dire as a 0-0 with boring long-ball guff. We have a similar set of players to you - a smattering of quality players, Premiership journeymen and Championship players who are not quite good enough at the very top level. However, Trappatoni undoubtedly gets results out of your lot whereas we have plummeted to 117th. I know we won tonight but we still look set to finish bottom of the group.
Bottom line, in my opinion, you'd be mad to sack Trappatoni. Just my opinion.
We missed Fahey tonight, even as an option off the bench.
I was fuming when going home and heard Keane on the radio whinging that Slovakia set up for the draw..
Every game, even against sides we should beat fairly comfortably, we set out like we're Accrington Stanley away at Old Trafford. It's incredibly frustrating to watch. If we qualify then fine, it'll be worth it. However, if we're not qualifying, I'd rather see Ireland play a bit of football and at least give the supporters something to cheer about.Quote:
Originally Posted by Cymro
No need to remind me. ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by geysir
It would actually be amazing if we went out to Russia all guns blazing and came home with three points after playing like we did in the play-off in Paris. In a way, maybe this is a blessing in disguise as such a scenario would almost certainly win us the group, but I wouldn't put a bet on it.
If that's what they were doing, they weren't making a good job of it at all. They nearly bloody won the thing!Quote:
Originally Posted by MeathDrog
So what. It was up to Keane and the lads to do something about it.Quote:
Originally Posted by DannyInvincible
It's inaccurate, if not meaningless, in so far as each team hasn't played the same fixtures as the next. In the head-to-head table, for example, we would have been third.Quote:
Originally Posted by Cymro
Indeed, results matter and drawing is better than losing, but drawing games doesn't get you to major championships either. It's questionable as to whether we even deserved to draw tonight's game.Quote:
I realise a 0-0 draw can be exceptionally dull, dire, and frustrating, but at the end of the day results are what matter.
I think you misinterpreted. I'm in complete agreement with you. It was a ridiculous thing for Robbie to say is what I meant. Slovakia looked more like winning (or actually playing) than we ever did, so how he can accuse them of setting out for the 0-0 draw confuses me. If they were trying to come away with a scoreless draw, they certainly showed no signs of it.Quote:
Originally Posted by MeathDrog
They were all over us for long stretches so I dunno what game he was watching, and occasionally playing in.Quote:
Originally Posted by MeathDrog
Just got in from the game, haven't had the chance to read the rest of the thread but just wanted to offer some initial, oh, off the top of my head thoughts - we were bad. Rank bad. Rotten bad. There were stink lines eminating from half our team. We were lucky to get a point. Doyle's never played poorer for us. McGeady was finished mentally after 48 minutes and how Trap kept him there until the 84th minute when the more humane thing would've been to put him out of his misery, I'll never know. Andrews was 'eh?!?! Is he a footballer?!' bad. But he wasn't the only one...
Ward and Sledge were our best players.
I'm pretty gutted. We were lucky to get a point. I thought the level we were playing at - like a bunch of people who didn't appear to have met before, never mind being a squad which has been together for about two years - was bizarre. Misplaced passes, bad communication, no leadership, sloppy cheap instances of constantly giving the ball way - it was beyond the technical limitations of our team, it was a mentality problem.
Personally I thought we maybe went into the game overconfident then got surprised, and subsequently totally frustrated, that Slovakia bossed us. But that's just a hypothesis. We were so dire and lifeless it's simply not funny.
Vent over.
Pitiful performance.
In from a sess so will post tomorrow but McGeady, Andrews, Whelan & the Trap will be crucified. If you cannot pass a football when your a pro footballer.....
Didn't realise we're going to miss Sledge in Russia now. It gets better and better. Staying positive, he was the difference between us being alive or dead for qualification imo.
Some baffling comments on here. Especially regarding Doyle and Ward. Doyle put in ten times the work that Keane did and got hauled off for his trouble. I thought Ward did really well considering it was his first competitive start. In the last campaign we struggled to break teams down at home but had more success away, hopefully we can get something Tuesday.
I agree with you on Ward, but not on Doyle. I thought he looked a little off the pace, and his link-up play with Keane and Duff was poor. Keane and Duff, in particular the second half, put together a couple of decent moves but Doyle didn't really link up with anybody all that well. Things didn't really stick for him. He got through his usual amount of work but it just wasn't as effective as usual imo. And to be fair to Keane, I thought he worked very, very hard, including knicking balls off defenders, while remaining a goal threat. He should've buried that header though. Doyle meanwhile didn't get a sniff at goal, whereas Cox was getting in the right areas and had a couple of chances.Quote:
Originally Posted by Real ale Madrid
Doyle's still a favorite of mine, I just don't think he played well this evening.
Just had a look and we are creeping up the table of best 2nd place teams...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_2012_qualifying
and Norway and Sweden will definitely both drop points before the curtain falls in October if you look at their schedules.
Plus we are now ahread of Slovakia if we finish level on points because of the away goal - yes, that's how it works. Even if we lose in Moscow and Russia also beat Slovakia, we still stay ahead of Slovakia (assuming 6pts against Andorra and Armenia for us). Still looking good for 2nd place, maybe even best 2nd placer...
Doyle and McGeady clearly weren't 100%. If we'd had Long fit or seen a bit more of Hunt (bad call, Trap, 7 minutes was a bit pointless), I think we would have won the game. Defenders were solid, Ward and O'Shea did actually get forward a bit.
Still, 0-0 against a decent side and still in it. Roll on Tuesday and down with the booers and leave-early merchants.
I agree in principle but I think focusing on the centre midfield (dire though they were) is giving a free pass to the rest. There were numerous times during the game where O'Shea or Duff would get the ball and people would just run away from him. There were other times when Andrews had the ball and Whelan was standing in acres of space but was directly between an opposition player and the ball. The players just aren't making the runs to get on the ball. Even Duff and McGeady were guilty of it. There just seems to be a lack of courage to take the football in this team: Richard Dunne has it, Duff, McGeady and Keane have it, but too many other players don't, even Doyle.Quote:
Originally Posted by geysir
I think Ward and McGeady both had poor games today but I think they have an understanding that Duff and O'Shea don't have. Ward was sucked in continually in defence, but McGeady was always there to cover; likewise, Ward made some great attacking runs that Kilbane would never make, and one more than one occasion Doyle and McGeady just weren't looking for him. I saw in Ward tonight all the criticisms I've had of him in the past - he gets sucked in a lot and leaves loads of space - but he covered our centre halves well and made intelligent runs forward.
I honestly think we have the players to play a better style of football but they just lack the confidence to do it. I'm wondering if bringing up players like Clifford, McCarthy and Brady from the U21s might be the tonic we need. They'll make loads of mistakes but at least they'll have the confidence to make them.
I agree with a lot of that. I think tonight a lot of guys were hiding, and not displaying the kind of courage and mentality that I want to see in this Irish team.Quote:
Originally Posted by Charlie Darwin
Which leads me on to Ward - it's interesting some people saw him as having a poor game, from where I was I thought he was largely really very good and one of the few positives. However in retrospect I likely glossed over some of his defensive lapses and he certainly gave the ball away cheaply a few times (though I think that was true of every single player).
But the reason I glossed over those things is simple - Ward demanded possession. Constantly. He was our defence's only out ball, beyond hoofing, and he always pushed the ball forward and at pace. He did it for 90 minutes and he did it when more senior players refused to show for it, or when they did show for the ball only did so to pass it sideways. Ward wanted the ball all the time and he was the only Irish player who really possessed the ball with tempo. For an inexperienced player, I think he deserves a lot of credit for that (his defensive blocks and tackles also deserve plaudits).
Contrast that with those Ward was trying to link directly with - McGeady, whose confidence and legs were shot after 50 minutes and then subsequently drifted inside to hide, and Andrews, who was basically doing a 'Gibson' only he shot far less and gave the ball away more.
BTW I like Andrews but he's starting to become this team's ultimate enigma - one game he's great, snapping into tackles, playing neat passes, scoring screamers and the next he can't hit a ball five yards to a teammate and turns down umpteen attempts at goal to shovel the ball sideways...
Quote:
Originally Posted by cfdh_edmundo
Yes you are right about it only being 2 from 9, I thought we beat Slovakia away but it was a draw, however it was a score draw so that puts
us above them if we are tied on points. It's all in the balance, I expect Russia will get their revenge on Slovakia and take 3 points off them
That leaves them with only 6 points available in tricky fixtures, I doubt they will get 6 points, they may struggle to get 4 and 2 is possible.
Armenia is a team we are all over looking, they may well come into the mix they are top scorers and are joint top on goal difference.
We should take 6 points from our remaining games, Slovakia then need 7 or 9, and that's a tall order.
If we take 6 points I am sure we will finish second, Andorra should be a formality, that leaves Armenia and that is the must win game for us,
a defeat in Russia probably will not matter, anything we get their will be a bonus.
That's the theory anyway the reality is the problem.
Slovakia have no need to better our results if Russia also finish on equal points with us. For example, if we draw against Russia and win our other two, they draw against Russia and win their other two and Russia win their other fixture, we'll all finish on 21 points with us in third position. That's a fairly likely scenarios, which is why I think we should go for it in Moscow and keep it within our own hands.
Why would we be 3rd? Our current goal difference is 3+ better than Slovakia. If we draw then I believe its still in our own hands. If we draw and win our remaining 2 remaining games against Andorra and Armenia then we should be virtually guaranteed 2nd. The only way we could be caught is if Slovakia draws with Russia and makes up 3+ goals against Armenia and Macedonia which is fairly unlikely. We shouldn't play for the draw but I'd definitely take a draw on Tuesday.Quote:
Originally Posted by DannyInvincible
If we finish on an equal number of points with Slovakia alone, we'll be ranked ahead of them due to our superior head-to-head results with just them by virtue of our away goal scored in Slovakia. However, if both ourselves and Slovakia also finish on the same number of points as Russia, such a scenario gives rise to a sort of mini league table of three where head-to-head results between the three teams dictate the deciding standings. Goal difference is a secondary concern and goal difference from other games outside of the tie-breaking table has even less of a bearing. If, for the sake of argument, the table as it stood two days ago was the final standing, we'd actually have been ranked third out of the three teams on 13 points as our 1 point from the games with Russia and Slovakia would have been inferior to Russia's 3 points and Slovakia's 4 points from the head-to-head games.Quote:
Originally Posted by Morbo
Here are the tie-breaking criteria in order of importance:
The reality is that if we draw against Russia on Tuesday, qualification is out of our hands. We'll finish on 21 points if we go on to win our remaining two games. That guarantees absolutely nothing, however, and I fear it will give rise to a particularly heart-breaking scenario where we finish third on equal points with the group winner and the runner-up as a result of a tie-breaker.Quote:
If two or more teams are equal on points on completion of the group matches, the following criteria are applied to determine the rankings:
- Higher number of points obtained in the group matches played among the teams in question
- Superior goal difference from the group matches played among the teams in question
- Higher number of goals scored in the group matches played among the teams in question
- Higher number of goals scored away from home in the group matches played among the teams in question
- If, after applying criteria 1) to 4) to several teams, two or more teams still have an equal ranking, the criteria 1) to 4) will be reapplied to determine the ranking of these teams. If this procedure does not lead to a decision, criteria 6) and 7) will apply
- Results of all group matches:
- Superior goal difference
- Higher number of goals scored
- Higher number of goals scored away from home
- Fair play conduct
- Drawing of lots
Let's say we draw with Russia on Tuesday for the following scenarios. If Slovakia are to also draw with Russia and win their remaining two games, with Russia winning their game against Andorra after drawing with us, we'll all finish on 21 points and have to be separated by a tie-breaking table. We'll be the worst of the three in that table with our total of 3 head-to-head points compared to Slovakia's 6 and Russia's 5. Goal difference would only come into play if those tallies were identical.
If Slovakia win all three of their games and Russia beat only Andorra after drawing with us, Slovakia will top the group with 23 points, whilst Russia will finish third on 20 with us in second on 21, but that's us relying on Slovakia to beat them.
If Slovakia lose to Russia but win their other two games and Russia go on to beat Andorra as well as having beaten Slovakia and drawn with us, Slovakia will finish third on 20 points and Russia will top the group on 23. Likewise, us finishing second there relies on Russia beating Slovakia.
And in both of those latter scenarios, the best we can hope for if other results go as you might expect and neither Slovakia or Russia are to falter is the play-offs. Thus, I think settling for a draw is too much of a risk and a relinquishing of control over our own destiny. We can decide that we're off to Poland/Ukraine on Tuesday and I hope that's how we approach it. (That's assuming we take 6 from the final two games; if we're dropping points to either Armenia at home or Andorra, we may as well give up football.)