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So what we've learned from today is that Sweden are no more likely than us to grind a small team into submission. This knowledge doesn't help us that much considering we need to win against - if they were more open and attacking like Austria, we'd probably have a better chance of beating them.
That could have been the yellow we'd like Zlatan to have got.
Stuff it anyway, it's been years since we had a right go at a relative peer in a critical home game. Bring it on. Lets just hope we don't exclusively go out to play hoofball or retreat into our shells if we go ahead. Bring back Stan, Mick Byrne and Liam Miller for this one.
I still vividly remember Liam Miller's strike at Lansdowne. A really comprehensive victory that allowed us all, briefly, to dream we were finally going somewhere as a team. The old Stan bait-and-switch, classic.
really poor result for eamon,richard,george and ronnie,but especially eamon and richard,i mean how are they going to explain a miserly swede 2nil defeat of plumbers,bakers and candlestick makers...sorry fishermen,hold i take it back as with their 3nil defeat to germany the faroes had a ....stronger....team out tonight.
He is indeed.Quote:
Originally Posted by Yard of Pace
Yes and no. They conceded two soft goals from a defensive point of view against Austria so they decided to break up their centre-half partnership of Olsson (West Brom) and Granqvist (Genoa) for the Faroes game. The general feeling is they don't work well together as a partnership but with Granqvist's sending off last night the partnership will be broken up for our game anyways.
They are certainly there for the taking. Their left flank is particularly suspect, Austria got a lot of joy from attacking down Sweden's left flank. There LB options aren't great and their LM, Kacaniklic who played in the Championship last season, is quite raw around the edges. Just on the subject of Kacaniklic, he had a great chance to score against the Faroes but he chickened out of the tackle with their keeper, good to see from an Irish perspective.
One of the Faroes' players said prior to last night's game that Sweden are the weakest of the teams they have played in the group so far. I suppose you can read that by looking at their results as, disregarding the 4-4 result away to Germany, they have laboured to 3 victories against the Faroes and Kazakhstan, didn't really trouble us at all and were well beaten in Austria.
Hmm, sounds like a Faroese version of 'mind games'...
Permutations and combinations and whatnot: http://irish-abroad.appspot.com/Blog
It looks as though we need a win win or a win draw. Sweden being first game Austria second.Quote:
Originally Posted by tetsujin1979
There are a number of other sequences which see us on level points with another(s) team but I think our goal difference
will always put us out in that situation as Austria are miles ahead of us on that and the only sequence which sees us level on points
with Sweden requires us losing to Sweden, which make our goal difference 2 worse than it is now.
However the Germany game is not taken into account o in the unlikely event we get something there are a couple more ways to get through.
Kazakhstan and the Faroes could also upset the apple cart, but then again it might be us who fall out!!
My prediction is third. With two draws, a defeat and a win to come.
That first draw v.Austria and a lack of goals in general (besides Robbie's efforts) will come back to haunt us.
Yes, we have limited players and work hard, but our biggest handicap is our manager and his 'tactics' when it comes to home games.
Incidentally, in the unlikely event of beating Sweden and losing in Austria, besides the extra point, that would be a fatal blow, surely?
And whoever gets second, will be undoubtedly drawn v. a 'seeded' team like those in London or P*ris anyway and will go crashing out as FIFA once again attempt to contrive 'big' names getting to the Finals.
There are a number of other sequences which could see us level with Sweden. We could beat them, lose to Austria and Sweden beat Austria. That would also see us level without taking the other games into consideration. The three games between IRE/SWE/AUS could all be draws also.Quote:
Originally Posted by tricky_colour
I wouldn't consider this unlikely at all but, yeah, it probably would be fatal. We would need to get something in Cologne and hope Sweden beat Austria and both lose to Germany (assuming all victories v Faroes and Kazaks).Quote:
Originally Posted by ArdeeBhoy
Yeah if we lose in Austria then it's probably all over. Assuming all 3 (us, Swedes and Austrian) lose to Germany and all 3 beat the minnows* (Sweden go to Kazakhstan, Austria go to Faeroes and we have Kazakhs at home) if we win at home to Sweden and lose in Austria then all will depend on the Sweden vs Austria game. If it's a draw or an Austrian win in Stockholm we will most likely be behind the Austrians either on goal difference or points. If Sweden win that game I think all teams could be on 17 points and we would suffer due to our goal difference (we would need to make up a lot of goals to catch Austria, particularly if we lose in Vienna as goals in that match have a double effect (detracting from our GD but adding to the Austrian GD). Draws in all the games between the three will also probably see us all level on points and again missing out on goal difference.Quote:
Originally Posted by ArdeeBhoy
*In terms of minnows the only potential for dropped points I can see is Kazakhstan drawing with Sweden in Astana. The Swedes will have played us in Dublin 4 days earlier and then will have one of the longest possible flights in European football. Whereas Kazakhstan will have played at home to the Faeroese 4 days earlier. But then there is also the chance Sweden will pick up points at home to (an already qualified) Germany on the last match day.
If there is a winner in the Sweden vs Austria game in October it's odds-on that we will need to have beaten that team in September.
It's good to know the permutations but on the (far from certain) assumption we all lose to Germany and win our remaining Kaz or Faroes games, it's a straight shoot-out between the 3 of us all starting from scratch, bar our worse goal difference.
But because Sweden versus Austria is the most important game outside of our control and not until October we'll really need to be assertive and go for 6 points, but probably settle for 4.
Is there a chance our trip to Germany will be a dead rubber for Germany?
Think we'll draw with the Swedes and Austria though.
And unless Zlatan shows up, the Swedes are going to struggle to beat anyone, bar the 'minnows'.
More likely Austria will come second unless we suddenly win one one of our 'mini-league'(Austria, Ireland, Sweden) by 2 clear goals (yeah, right) as they could also sneak a win v.us in Vienna and probably just capable of a point in a return v.the Swedes.
If they stay undefeated in the 'min-league', they'll probably just deserve second?
And there may be one remaining group game, Deutschland don't win IMO.
Dead rubber game for Germany odds are probably 1-100Quote:
Originally Posted by Stuttgart88
We need to win both games in September ..... end of
Great stuff tets, highlighting is a great idea also as it gives us the grouped outcomes by chances of qualifying based on who we beat rather than relying on other results. So basically if we beat sweden there are 7 out of 9 permutations where we qualify. I hope the management realise this.Quote:
Originally Posted by tetsujin1979
Actually on second thoughts its 7 chances if we beat sweden, or 7 chances if we beat austria drawing it the other way. Good reading though well done!
Actually the only permutations we can be certain in are if we beat both, goal difference way behind austria.
Tets based on the 6 or 8 goal differnce between us and austria would it not be better to remove the green on those ones? Also you would assume that we all draw with germany?
Thanks, though believe the permutations were already on this MB...Quote:
Originally Posted by tetsujin1979
Yeah, there is a decent chance. I'm pretty sure if they beat Austria (h) and the Faeroes (a) in the September double header they will have 22 points, and will almost certainly be home and dry. If they win both of those matches the only way one of "the three" (us, Sweden, Austria) could catch Germany then would be to win every game. For instance we would have to have already beaten Sweden (h) and Austria (a) to be in a position to catch Germany (and even then they would still finish 2nd) if we've won those two games we should come second ahead of Sweden, even if the Swedes beat Austria and Germany and we lose in Köln. If Sweden beat us and then win in Kazakhstan then they could still catch Germany at the time of our Köln match, but if that happens we'll have blown it anyway.Quote:
Originally Posted by Stuttgart88
Tets, any chance that can be posted here? I can't access that site at work (social media blah blah blah).
Or email it to me?