Unemployment

The latest unemployment figures are released from the live register today. After the massive jump last month, and it now standing at 5.5%, that figure is only going to increase again today to 200k+. Yet, you're still treated as a social pariah, if you're unemployed in this country.

People don't seem to recognise that getting and keeping a job at the moment is not the easy task it was 5 years ago. With jobs slashed in the construction and manufacturing sectors especially, people have to wake up and accept that once you have been laid off, it's difficult to find another job in the same industry now. And for those that can, salaries are not great, and often lower than previously, against growing inflation.

Only 24,000 new jobs will be created this year, and the effects can be seen on recruitment websites. Whereas last year, there would be 3 pages of new jobs posted daily by firms in specific fields, today, there's less than 2. And most of those advertised are from recruitment agencies themselves. In the national newspapers on Thursdays last year, there would be double figure pages advertising vacancies. Yesterday, there was a couple. And we still have to go through the annual summer slowdown, beginning next month.

When it last hit 200k, the country was a basket case. Why is it that when the same figures will be recorded today, people will still think we're doing fine?? :confused:

I'm with Bohs So Good on this one though, it's all a con to make you buy more linen shopping bags, unemployment, sure they were worried about that in the 80s and we're not all dead yet arev we?? Proves it doesn't exist**


Sorry for taking my grievances from another thread over to this one. My real answer would be that the government are playing the media better this time, they've learned that if you throw enough 'facts' in the opposite direction of the social tide people will become confused and refuse to believe there is a problem. So at the moment some of us believe there is a crisis, some think we are being hysterical and the majority are stuck in the middle of what to believe

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Originally Posted by mypost

The latest unemployment ... figure is only going to increase again today to 200k+...
When it last hit 200k, the country was a basket case. Why is it that when the same figures will be recorded today, people will still think we're doing fine?? :confused:

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That figure of 200,000, did this include housewives last time it was that high? Because our working population has soared, and 200,000 unemployed isn't what it used to be.

The Slowdown is for the greater good, stupid ignorant chancers have made it big in the last 5 years - I'd be sweating now if I had two or three investment houses in the midlands, a Jeep and large five bed property all bought on cheap credit and a middle income job!

The Big Time Charlies aint going to look so big this time next year thats for sure. I was reluctant to get into the housing and/or investment markets (and lets face it I didn't have a lot of disposable income to allow me to anyway)and I'm relived that I didn't, also I work in an area that is less likely to be moved to eastern Europe or Asia as it involves being on the ground with customers

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Originally Posted by jebus

Hi 5 on that! I for one am going to enjoy the oncoming years of depression and house repossession, the ignorant and the foolish have had their time in the sun this decade, when they all have to resort to prostitution to pay off their mortgages that's gonna be Jebus's time to shine :)

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Fabulous reply to a very silly post. (Pesky unemplyed getting free money, and them all with their 5 bedroom houses and jeeps!)

Despite the figures falling by 200 last month, the % rate remains the same as last time at 5.5%. At 199.5k+, there is no question that the 200k mark will be reached if not next month, then certainly during the summer months.

Off Topic junk moved to rubbish.

As said above 200k is not what it used to be as is much smaller percentage of total now. Unemployment does not affect individuals much until they are out of work.

I don't know much about other sectors of the economy except my own. Post dot com boom the IT market got hit badly in 2002-03 & it was a time to be glad to have a job. I had a 3 pay freeze which was not nice. I do not get a feeling there is a squeeze on IT jobs currently as there was under supply last year.

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Originally Posted by pete

Unemployment does not affect individuals much until they are out of work.

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Stating the obvious, or am I missing something?

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Originally Posted by osarusan

Stating the obvious, or am I missing something?

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Less tax revenue affects everyone but not directly.

It might sound stupid, but I think Denis O' Briens investment in Trappatoni may have been the best spent million in Ireland for years.

When you look back at Italia 90 and the state of the irish economy, it was on its knees. Irelands performance in Euro 88 and Italia 90 gave the country a belief that we could compete on a world stage and confidence that had been absent and provided the spark to get the Cetlic Tiger out of her bed.

I dont think that you can understate the importance of having a successful international team.

Since the days of the SSIAs we have become a nation of amateur economists. Every dog on the street has an opinion on tracker mortgages, oil prices and hedge funds. We're a nation of sheep in many respects - frightened sheep at the moment.I know other factors influence a countrys competitiveness but IF Trappa is successful I can see the economy following suit once more and the wolves being scared away from the door.

Thats a well spent million.

To be classified as being unemployed you must be actively seeking work (well in the UK anyway and I'm sure the EU are trying to encourage transparency in economic indicators across the board). Have they released any figures for those classified as economically inactive? The family and friends who work in the construction industry in England have started to notice how many Irish labourers are coming across the water looking for work again. Unfortunately the UK building trade has slowed up, there are sites bought just laying idle because Wimpy and co are so afraid about the housing market. Difficult times ahead for all.

I think after a certain period of time they look for evidence you have applied for jobs or did interviews? I know when my last company shutdown one of the guys I worked with was asked for proof but they never asked me despite the fact we "joined" the social welfare at around the same time. This might have been around 6-8 weeks.

Heard from engineer in the building industry that work starting to dry up in Dublin so doesn't just affect labourers.

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Originally Posted by pete

I think after a certain period of time they look for evidence you have applied for jobs or did interviews? I know when my last company shutdown one of the guys I worked with was asked for proof but they never asked me despite the fact we "joined" the social welfare at around the same time. This might have been around 6-8 weeks.

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As far as I know every few month you must present several signatures of employers confirming you sought a job and were refused. That's obviously open to taking the **** though. People often popped into my father's business shoving a piece of paper in his face and looking for it to be signed with a sense of entitlement without so much as going through the pretence of asking for a job.

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Heard from engineer in the building industry that work starting to dry up in Dublin so doesn't just affect labourers.

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That's to be expected. Construction has declined so jobs across the board will disappear as they will in associated supply and services associated with the industry.

Irish Times this morning:

"1,000 jobs to be lost in the HSE" :eek:

You will always hear people complaining that too many administrators in the Health service. However as soon as they want to reduce the number you get the same people complaining. I am not forgetting that the HSE hired a load of people when it was created only a to realise a few years later it does not need them. :rolleyes:

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Originally Posted by Poor Student

As far as I know every few month you must present several signatures of employers confirming you sought a job and were refused. That's obviously open to taking the **** though. People often popped into my father's business shoving a piece of paper in his face and looking for it to be signed with a sense of entitlement without so much as going through the pretence of asking for a job.

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Heaven forfend that anyone but the middle classes should have a sense of entitlement. Positively how dare they? :rolleyes:

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Originally Posted by mypost

"1,000 jobs to be lost in the HSE" :eek:

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Good. The HSE should just disappear and not come back.

Out of interest how do people feel we are going to replace the jobs lost in construction in the next ten years.Are the conditions here attractive enough(coporate tax rate aside) such as R&D/innovation centres good enough to attract new Companies in IT/technology, Biotech etc locate here?

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Originally Posted by Sheridan

Heaven forfend that anyone but the middle classes should have a sense of entitlement. Positively how dare they? :rolleyes:

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You shouldn't feel entitled to the signature unless you've genuinely sought employment. It's something to be signed after you've been rejected or told no places are available. As I said, some people don't even bother to go that far.

It may be a bot OT. But I've basically lost my job this week due to the economic situation.

Last year, there was work for 2 full time lads during the summer.
This year, there's only work for me once or twice a week.

****ing Sickening.

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Originally Posted by cheifo

Out of interest how do people feel we are going to replace the jobs lost in construction in the next ten years.Are the conditions here attractive enough(coporate tax rate aside) such as R&D/innovation centres good enough to attract new Companies in IT/technology, Biotech etc locate here?

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Construction will come back up but unsure how long it will take & unlikely to see such a boom again.

In IT English speaking is a huge advantage. Usually in a downturn people don't move job unless they have to but I would not be put off moving jobs so I guess that indicates jobs market ok. There are still a lot of foreign people in Ireland working in IT who would not be here if no jobs. While not exclusive in my experience people whose first language is not English tend to be in the more junior roles.

College numbers have also dropped off a huge amount in recent years for IT. I have not heard of large increase in Science so what studying in college these days?

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Originally Posted by blobbyblob

When you look back at Italia 90 and the state of the irish economy, it was on its knees. Irelands performance in Euro 88 and Italia 90 gave the country a belief that we could compete on a world stage and confidence that had been absent and provided the spark to get the Cetlic Tiger out of her bed.

I dont think that you can understate the importance of having a successful international team.

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Originally Posted by blobbyblob

IF Trappa is successful I can see the economy following suit once more and the wolves being scared away from the door.

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oh what a load of sh*te, you'd swallow anything written by a sports journalist. Did we suddenly emerge from our mud huts in July 1990 after the most boring world cup ever and realise we can be world leaders in IT manufacturing and Software development? No we didn't, the economic boom had nothing to do with football, or Jack Charlton, or a single drunken epiphany during the world cup. Ireland, like the rest of europe and america had big unemployment and inflation problems in the 80's, we dropped our taxes and gave international companies a very attractive place to invest once the large multinationals started expanding overseas in the 90's. We didn't create Intel, or HP, or IBM, or Google, Or Dell. We've just been very fortunate to ride on the coat tails of american economic growth and innovation.

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Originally Posted by ruben_sosa

oh what a load of sh*te, you'd swallow anything written by a sports journalist. Did we suddenly emerge from our mud huts in July 1990 after the most boring world cup ever and realise we can be world leaders in IT manufacturing and Software development? No we didn't, the economic boom had nothing to do with football, or Jack Charlton, or a single drunken epiphany during the world cup. Ireland, like the rest of europe and america had big unemployment and inflation problems in the 80's, we dropped our taxes and gave international companies a very attractive place to invest once the large multinationals started expanding overseas in the 90's. We didn't create Intel, or HP, or IBM, or Google, Or Dell. We've just been very fortunate to ride on the coat tails of american economic growth and innovation.

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It was actually foresight from people like TK Whitaker in the 60's that led to the inflow of FDI that really took off the 80's, but you are bang on. Broadly we surfed someone else's wave (not that there's any shame in that for a country of 5 odd million people).

Anyone who believes in mean reversion will understand what we are going through now and that its not all bad, it needed to happen. However the likes of what we saw over the last 15 years will not be seen again.

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Originally Posted by ruben_sosa

oh what a load of sh*te, you'd swallow anything written by a sports journalist. Did we suddenly emerge from our mud huts in July 1990 after the most boring world cup ever and realise we can be world leaders in IT manufacturing and Software development? No we didn't, the economic boom had nothing to do with football, or Jack Charlton, or a single drunken epiphany during the world cup.

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Agreed.

In 1991, the USA "Morrison Visa" scheme was implemented, and Ireland was allocated 48,000 places. By 1992, the dole figure had climbed to almost 300,000. While 1994 saw the reversal of the slide, it wasn't until another couple of years, before the effects of our prosperity were noticeable.

10 years ago, I was employed on £200 a week, which was considered good money at the time. Today, the Social Welfare Allowance is just short of €200 a week.

This week is the worst week of the year to lose a job, as it comes up against the bh weekend, and the beginning of the slack season, where jobs are more likely to be filled by students on holidays, than actual jobseekers. Next Friday, the latest unemployment figures are released. They'll climb significantly over the next 3 months.

I cashed in a 5 year investment plan I had when I was home last week. As a measure of the slowdown in the global market my waiting a year longer meant I was creeping close to losing on the investment and as it happened I made a whopping €10 interset (subject to 21% DIRT). I feel proud however the government only get 21% of my €10 Euro and I hope there isn't a squabble for it.

Having said that things are pretty poor in the UK and so I'm holding onto my sterling as its just not worth a hate at the minute and that can only get better surely. The credit crunch is global and can only really mean one thing for those that gambled on generous credit offers by the lenders.

My investment plan really shows how bad things have got not just at home but globally.I could have hung on and maybe I should have but I was not going to lose on it.

Brendan

A leaked assessment by the jobs agency FÁS has reportedly concluded that up to one-quarter of all construction workers could lose their jobs by the end of next year.

Reports this morning say more than 65,000 people could be out of work by the end of 2009 due to the slowdown in the building sector.

The FÁS study blames the economic downturn and the plummeting value of new property.

It says men will be worst-hit, with builders, carpenters and plasterers most at risk of losing their jobs.

However, the study also says the losses will be offset slightly by the creation of more than 20,000 construction jobs in other areas, including projects in the National Development Plan.

http://www.eveningecho.ie/news/story/?trs=mhgbeyojkfau


I'm not great at maths but that still looks like 45,000 people out of a job by 2010. Anyone in the construction on this site that can see any light? what is the future now for Ireland?
Does all of this come down to ireland not planning for the future and looking for the here and now. in australia they have been having 2020 and 2030 conferences to see what they want from their country and what they need in future years to sustain those who will be in charge of running the country. Ireland has had no such thing that i can remember? now since the celtic tiger has passed away. where are the schools, hospitals, road networks etc from the golden years? Look at Cobh - the cobh to carrigtwohill road is still atrocious and the great island seen no investment. Youghal and Fermoy have seen no investment in years. i can only use cork as an example and i am open to correction on those previous points. i'm sure it is the same story around the country especially in the midlands and north west

Shocking as these statistics seem to be - its the sheer press and media coverage about this topic in the last 12 months or so I begun to become immune and unaffected by it and I work in the construction -I have adopted a what will be will ethos!

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Originally Posted by padjoe

A leaked assessment by the jobs agency FÁS has reportedly concluded that up to one-quarter of all construction workers could lose their jobs by the end of next year.
....It says men will be worst-hit, with builders, carpenters and plasterers most at risk of losing their jobs.

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...Christ they're through the looking glass on the highlighted bit eh. :o

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Originally Posted by padjoe

However, the study also says the losses will be offset slightly by the creation of more than 20,000 construction jobs in other areas, including projects in the National Development Plan.

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...why do I just know that none of these "other areas" involve resourcing the urban sprawl that led to this property bubble with the schools, hospitals, amenities and other regular first world infrastructure that people were promised by developers when they paid over the top prices for their dream homes?

The idea that the vast, vast majority of such schemes will involve road construction wouldn't irk me as much if I thought the roads involved would be the years later yet still unfinished ones found in so many of the new developments about the place. No, it'll be intercity roads constructed by corrupt companies paying buttons to the human beings our new tanaiste so tellingly referred to as 'Kebabs'.

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Originally Posted by padjoe

Anyone in the construction on this site that can see any light? what is the future now for Ireland?

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Lived with a guy until a week ago who ran his own paving company for the last number of years in Ireland. He is, and according to him a lot of others, are leaving the country for Dubai or Australia at the moment

Hard sometimes to ignore media hysteria and judge each situation on its merits.

For example some commentators are saying the soaring price of oil is going to alter the whole economic landscape in Western countries sooner rather than later.

Won't affect us anyway with our World Class public transport infrastructure.:eek:

I find it strange that some many different fundamental all came together at the same time to squeeze that only our economy but the world economy, rising oil prices, Credit squeeze, rising fuel prices, Credit crunch, global property downturn, I wonder is this a premeditated economy orchestrated by a select few - maybe Jim Corr was right there is a neo-nexus rogue governing body ruling the planet or worse still the freemasons:eek:

RTE: Big decrease in tax revenues

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Government figures show that there was a shortfall of almost €1.2 billion in tax receipts in the first five months of 2008.

The Exchequer deficit in the first five months was almost €3.6 billion, in sharp contrast to the situation this time last year when a surplus of €260m was recorded.

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Huge change in tax revenues. VAT decrease is a concern.

Will be interesting to see if the government actual does something. Sometimes I think it would be best they leave us all alone.

I am not suggesting the media are creating a recession but they are getting boring at this stage.

The US has just seen the biggest rise in unemployment in 22 years. In Ireland we are going back to a 6/7/8% unemployment rate within months.

ECB Interest Rates to increase soon as they want to curb inflation. IMO the ECB are obsessed with inflation & are ignoring the general economic conditions. As world economy heads towards a recession interest rates need to be low to encourage investment.

2 more firms shut. :(

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Originally Posted by pete

ECB Interest Rates to increase soon as they want to curb inflation. IMO the ECB are obsessed with inflation & are ignoring the general economic conditions. As world economy heads towards a recession interest rates need to be low to encourage investment.

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Eh, Pete, it's the main remit and goal of the ECB to keep inflation in and around 2%. They're doing what they're supposed to. If it weren't for general economic conditions we'd probably be at a rate of 4.5% months ago. Binging on cheap credit is a major reason for the state of the global economy at the moment.

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Originally Posted by pete

ECB Interest Rates to increase soon as they want to curb inflation. IMO the ECB are obsessed with inflation & are ignoring the general economic conditions. As world economy heads towards a recession interest rates need to be low to encourage investment.

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Pete, seriously, go and read an economics textbook, you're way off beam.

If there's one thing thats worse than inflation its stagflation.

Also, people need to remember the Irish bubble popped before the credit crunch et al. That was just a secondary effect for us.

Whats extremely worrying is the rumours the Govt are trying to wriggle out of NDP spending thats already been agreed. I'd actually support temporary breaches of EU borrowing limits if the spending went on infrastructure.

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Originally Posted by Poor Student

Eh, Pete, it's the main remit and goal of the ECB to keep inflation in and around 2%. They're doing what they're supposed to. If it weren't for general economic conditions we'd probably be at a rate of 4.5% months ago. Binging on cheap credit is a major reason for the state of the global economy at the moment.

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I understand their remit but low cost of finance stimulates economies. I also understand our property bubble assisted by cheap finance.

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Originally Posted by pete

I understand their remit but low cost of finance stimulates economies.

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It also stimulates inflation.

Absolute growth is an irrelevant measure, real growth (ie net of inflation) is what those setting policy aim for.

Ireland is statistically irrelevant when it comes to the ECB setting rates. Rates will be set based on averages, ergo will be dominated by Germany and France (with Spain and Italy also prominant).

Inflation is rising across these nations (in addition to ours) and needs to be controlled, otherwise we are in danger of stagflation (price inflation coupled with stagnant economic growth or even contraction). This is extremely destructive and to be avoided at all costs.

Therefore, in the manner of being asked whether you want a kick in the hole (inflation) and a punch in the stomach (stagnant economy), or just the punch in the stomach (stagnant economy), its a relatively easy choice, even though neither choice is absolutely that attractive.

There is no way of Ireland escaping a serious amount of pain. Some of it we caused ourselves (housing bubble), some of it was done to us and is out of our control (US/UK recession).

The Government need to focus on long-term issues such as continued infrastructure improvements, attracting R&D spend and other capital intensive investment and continued support for indigenous export-led companies.

I don't believe construction or the housebuilding industry should be insulated against something that is an unsustainable trend (ie over-capacity in that sector). Any stimulus is only likely to be a short-term pacifier. There is no reason to reintroduce things like the first time buyers grant or other such incentives when the existing unsold housing stock is so large. Prices, eventually, will come down to meet the level at which buyers will purchase at.