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Saw some of his TV show on RTE last night. I am sure he is correct about a lot of things but at the risk of suggestions I have my head in the sand he is too depressing. Talk about doom & gloom. :(
He got some gut in China to say wages were 1/26th of US wage levels. I am sure Chinese wages much cheaper but I presume he was using chinese wages for unskilled assembly lines. Hows about comparing like for like job?
BTW I used to like him on Newstalk & think he was unafirly replaced by Dunphy.
Pete, in fairness, it has been repeatedly suggested that you have your head in the sand on the property crash thread :DQuote:
Originally Posted by pete
He makes some good points and has generally been proven to be a good commentator but his "economics for children and stupid people" approach infuriates me.
His comparison to Uruguay was interesting. I would also compare Ireland to Japan, who were the last small country going round the world buying every piece of property they could and ostentasiously displaying their wealth. Look what happened their economy.
Whatever about doom and gloom, we certainly need to get over the happy-go-lucky idiocy Gov.ie are pushing down our throats. Our economy is on a major downturn and we need to pull their heads out of something smellier than sand if we're to slow it down to a pace we can pull back out of.
I don't understand the comment about unskilled assembly lines. Wage levels are wage levels; America has unskilled assembly lines just like China has middle managers and CEOs.
adam
Erm, possibly what he was doing there Pete............Quote:
Originally Posted by pete
EDIT: The Hamster got there first
I agree. Some sort of direction from government would be good.Quote:
Originally Posted by dahamsta
China has 100's of millions of cheap unskilled workers which would mean very cheap wages. I don't think University students would return to China from the West for 1/26th US wage. They are obviously much cheaper than the West I just think 1/26th is sensationalising.Quote:
Originally Posted by dahamsta
First thing I found on google
$2,880 - $11,640 per year. A lot cheaper than Western rates but not 1/26th & probably increasing at faster rate... Would graduate wage in Ireland be 30k? Even at the low rate there thats 1/13th.Quote:
Finally, with respect to compensation, the demand for talent has caused wage inflation among entry-level professional candidates, despite the need to train them extensively before they are able to contribute effectively to your organization. Depending on the industry, starting salaries for college graduates can range between 2,000-8,000 yuan (about US$240-$970) per month. Graduates in IT and engineering will make even more. Though still low by Western standards, this wage inflation means that Chinese professional staff is no longer as cheap as it once was.
Wages are all relative to the cost of living Pete...
I know I know. Too many variables to judge like with like. I just thought the example McWilliams gave was poor. I would not call it outsourcing but I know all about cheaper professional labour in Asia. Time to get back to work :pQuote:
Originally Posted by Dodge
BTW I kind of agree with you about McWilliams pete, but I just find him annoying personally rather than dismissing his claims
I watched McWilliams programme last night and confess while he did have some points I still find him very smug and patronising - i.e poor fools I told you so you're all going be all the dole the country is going down the swany etc.. the comparison with Uruguay was silly! but who out there didn't enjoy the analogy of the young confident auctioneer Miss Pencil Skirt see her dreams go up in smoke as her fancy car was repossessed, one of the most annoying things about the Celtic Tiger years is the young twenty somethings Dawson street set boasting about there 3 properties, Lets face it we're Irish and would love to see these people suffer with every Interest hike!!;) Guess what guys you have to work for a living!Quote:
Originally Posted by Dodge
Having said all that the Irony of the Celtic Tiger is that people like Hobbs and mcWilliams are making a mint of it with their self indulgent commentry! overall some good points put Hobbs and McWilliams are now too cliched and too predictable..
Dan McLaughlin on Prime Time described McWilliams Programme as Farrago! What a cool Clinical dude Mclaughlin is!:)
I actually like McWilliams. If it's felt he comes across as smug you can hardly blame him. He predicted the busting of the bubble some time ago and has been castigated for it. It doesn't take a genius to figure out the the property bubble has to burst and the damage in ignoring impending economic problems will lead us to improper planning for the future. Now his logical predictions are coming to fruition he's being somewhat vindicated although even now he among others are being credited with bringing about the recession themselves. Did anyone see the front of the Indo today? It read something along the lines of "If we're in a slump, who talked us into it?". If? If? People with vested interests are nailing people like McWilliams to the cross and trying to shift the blame onto the only people talking sense. Here's his Generation Game show if anyone's interested: http://www.rte.ie/tv/thegenerationgame/av_20070917.html . It's a bit over the top in terms of tone, music and presentation but it has some good points. McWilliams tends to draw up comical stereotypes to illustrate his points but he says himself they're not to be taken literally.
As somebody who spends a lot of time in the US McWillams is spot on about the state of the US economy. Driving around the Philadelphia suburbs is like being beamed back to London 1989. Foreclosures/Bank Owned properties everywhere. If this isn't a recession it is pretty close. $8/9/10 jobs being filled by graduates because they can't get the jobs they hoped for. And in my conversations with locals here things are going to get worse. The knock on effect to Ireland is hard to calculate. But it can't be good the way we are tied to American companies.
I actually like McWilliams, and thought Agenda was probably the best, most consistent of Irish current affairs programming, and he was miles in front of any of the breakfast time presenters on any radio channel.
However, I couldn't get into the last series (or the book that I got as a present) and I'm kind of struggling to be arsed about this one. Maybe it's just too dumbed down?
I didn't watch that series & also strangely got the book as a present. ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by Macy
Its hard to know who to believe as all commentators seem to have an Agenda but we are not in a recession (job vacancies still exist) & the official info suggests a reduction in growth but not negative growth.
I suppose if McWilliams keep saying we will have a crash he will be correct eventually.
If job losses continue in the construction sector then it'll have a knock on effect on other sectors. The turn down in house constrcution is going to knock several percent off growth.Quote:
Originally Posted by pete
He's an economist and he knows that infinite growth in property prices is not sustainable, he doesn't have to be castigated for calling it as it is. Others are denying what's inevitable.Quote:
I suppose if McWilliams keep saying we will have a crash he will be correct eventually.
As someone said to me, McWilliams is like a Redemptrist priest for the 21st century, telling us how bad we have been and all that we have done wrong.
No offence, but anyone with a reasonable background in economics and a handle on current affairs could have made the two programmes thus far.
He has offered loads of points with regards to the weaknesses of the Irish economy, combined with a load of "blue sky" thinking such as "Ireland needs a strategy" without quantifying what this strategy might be.
If company directors and chairmen/persons in this country took smaller 7 figure fees out of companies it would help competitiveness no end !
Quote:
Originally Posted by CollegeTillIDie
The majority of tax is paid by high earners, the country would be ****ed without the tax these pay. I think you'll find there’s a lot of money tied up in companies that the Directors are reluctant to take out, as they have to pay full tax/prsi on it, unlike a capital gain where they only pay 20%. If a way were found of getting them to release some of these funds the economy would benefit hugely.Quote:
http://www.rte.ie/news/2007/0924/revenue.html?rss
The report also shows that the top 1.5% paid over a quarter of all the income tax levied in the State, prompting the chief executive of the Taxation Institute to claim the State was now getting the balance right.
Mark Redmond said the wealthy were making the largest contribution and as a result, more people at the lower end could be taken out of the tax net
300 of the top 400 earners pay no tax.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ringo
Pete, "will"? Its happening now.Quote:
Originally Posted by pete