For Ireland to make the Round of 16...

We need at least two third placed teams on less than 4 points.

A: Romania not to beat Albania.
B: England to beat Slovakia. Wales and Russia can't both finish on 4 points.
C: Germany to beat N. Ireland.
D: Czech Republic not to beat Turkey.
F: Portugal not to beat Hungary or Iceland and Austria to draw.

E: We have to beat Italy. If we can't win a game having lost a game, we'll deserve to be going home.

Groups B and C seem our best hopes. I'll be eagerly watching Romania v Albania in group A tonight. Come on Albania! Do it for Ireland.

Thanks for this. Weds will be awful if we need to win 5-0!

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Originally Posted by Stuttgart88

Thanks for this. Weds will be awful if we need to win 5-0!

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Exactly! In some ways it's where having some 3rd placed teams go through makes things interesting though not everyone would agree with that. I'll be watching all the group games before we kick-off against Italy eager for certain results to go our way. While the players will be down after yesterday, if results go our way that knowing a win over Italy, while very difficult, puts our destiny back in our hands, it should be a lift to the squad.

After yesterday's defeat against Belgium, the first hurdle in making the Round of 16 starts with Romania v Albania tonight. Come on Albania! At least draw!!

If Romania do look like winning then a 3-0 win for France versus Swiss might help us too especially if Swiss pick up a few cards. An early red for Swiss would be a good omen.

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Originally Posted by davidatrb

If Romania do look like winning then a 3-0 win for France versus Swiss might help us too especially if Swiss pick up a few cards. An early red for Swiss would be a good omen.

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Yeah, if Romania do win, we'll need France to win 4-0 over Switzerland to ensure any unlikely win over Italy will get us above the Swiss! The old enemy England v Slovakia and their old enemy Germany v N. Ireland seem best placed to help us out in that regard.

The four best third-placed teams are determined according to the following criteria:

1. Higher number of points obtained;
2. Superior goal difference;
3. Higher number of goals scored;
4. Fair play conduct;
5. Position in the UEFA national team coefficient ranking system.

Adding some objective assessments of probabilities

A: Romania not to beat Albania. (Albania or draw is 8/11 ~ 58% chance)

B: England to beat Slovakia. Wales and Russia can't both finish on 4 points. (3/4 ~ 57% chance)

C: Germany to beat N. Ireland. (2/7 ~ 78% chance)

D: Czech Republic not to beat Turkey. (Turkey or draw is 8/13 ~ 61% chance)

F: Portugal not to beat Hungary (11/5 ~ 31% chance) or Iceland and Austria to draw (13/5 ~ 27% chance). Combined about 50% chance of at least one..

I think we would be very unlucky if at least two of those didn't happen.

We WILL know exactly what we need before our match. We play last.

Finally Ireland are 9/4 with the bookies to win the match and also 9/4 to qualify from group! so taking all into account a quick guess would be 33% chance of qualifying... So all not lost at all. Better than the roll of a dice but not as good as a coin toss.

Am I right in thinking we could finish 2nd if Sweden beat Belgium 1-0 and we beat Italy 3-0 therefore finishing above them on goals scored?

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Originally Posted by IsMiseSean

Am I right in thinking we could finish 2nd if Sweden beat Belgium 1-0 and we beat Italy 3-0 therefore finishing above them on goals scored?

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Yes.

I think the difference is that runner up probably gets Portugal but could be lucky and face Hungary or Iceland either.

3rd in E will play probably France or Spain. Or Swiss or Croatia if they can win their last games.

So now I'm cheering for either a Swiss win or a 3-0 plus France win tonight!

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Originally Posted by IsMiseSean

Am I right in thinking we could finish 2nd if Sweden beat Belgium 1-0 and we beat Italy 3-0 therefore finishing above them on goals scored?

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That's correct.

3rd place from Group E if amongst the best 4 will take on Group A winners, most likely France, or Group D winners, most likely Spain.

Group E runners-up will take on Group F winners, mostly likely Hungary or Portugal.

Italy the Group E winners will take on Group D runners-up, most likely Croatia or Czech Republic.

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Originally Posted by IsMiseSean

Am I right in thinking we could finish 2nd if Sweden beat Belgium 1-0 and we beat Italy 3-0 therefore finishing above them on goals scored?

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I'll have some of what you're having Sean!

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Originally Posted by Stuttgart88

I'll have some of what you're having Sean!

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It's probably a tad out of reach alright.

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Originally Posted by Stuttgart88

I'll have some of what you're having Sean!

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Originally Posted by IsMiseSean

It's probably a tad out of reach alright.

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No harm in mentioning what would be required. Essentially any win of any kind should do for the honour of taking on France or Spain!

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Originally Posted by IsMiseSean

Am I right in thinking we could finish 2nd if Sweden beat Belgium 1-0 and we beat Italy 3-0 therefore finishing above them on goals scored?

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Thinking we will win 3-0 is not right!! Stick to 1-0!

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Originally Posted by davidatrb

A: Romania not to beat Albania. (Albania or draw is 8/11 ~ 58% chance)

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Half way there...

Albania leading Romania 1-0, which is good for us. A Romania loss or draw means we'll just need one other result mentioned above to go our way if we do finish third on four points.

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Originally Posted by legendz

We need at least two third placed teams on less than 4 points.

A: Romania not to beat Albania.
B: England to beat Slovakia. Wales and Russia can't both finish on 4 points.
C: Germany to beat N. Ireland.
D: Czech Republic not to beat Turkey.
F: Portugal not to beat Hungary or Iceland and Austria to draw.

E: We have to beat Italy. If we can't win a game having lost a game, we'll deserve to be going home.

Groups B and C seem our best hopes. I'll be eagerly watching Romania v Albania in group A tonight. Come on Albania! Do it for Ireland.

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Albania just hit the front against Romania. The stars are aligning. I can feel it in my dicky knee. I fully agree with point E as well. Italy or no, if you can't beat a team with no skin in it you deserve to go home.

Albania are winning I should know I backed them at 3-1 one of my fav teams I livke the underdogs, the love hier
football too, first ever championship goal

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PhaWoc1_oDg

I like his run after

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A9Az0mIxpFc

The football experts over at Balls.ie have tweeted 'Not good news for Ireland, as Albania take the lead'.
Go home lads, you're drunk.
https://twitter.com/ballsdotie/statu...16801556926464

I even love their flag even if it has all kinds of far right connotations. That's a proper fcuking eagle.