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The Hoops and Pats look like the biggest favorites on Monday, but their odds are pretty low. Sligo seems better to take, while Athlone might be capable of being surprise of this round. I've no idea about game at Oriel Park. The Munster Derby has been postponed, as you know. I'll write what I decided to take to back from a bad series of last round, what are your thoughts?
Dundalk vs Derry City
Both teams are in a great mood after the surprising victories on Friday. Dundalk will try to continue a great series and to improve the performance on their artificial pitch. However, the Lilywhites have a very busy schedule and expected are some changes in the line-up tonight, midfielders J. Mountney and D. Meenan could be on the bench. On the other hand, the Candystripes have finally achieved their first win of the season so that they are now very dangerous for any rival, knowing their coach Roddy Collins. His son R. Collins Junior (regular defender) is in doubt, but key centre back R. McBride with regular midfielders B. Molloy and P. McEleney should return to the starting lineup.
Stephen Kenny's team realized great results in three away games against tough opponents (Sligo, Shams and Pats) but was slightly weaker at home against the not-so-strong teams. Whatever it may sound, I think Derry is under less pressure and Stephen Kenny may have trouble against his former club. Home odds are in decline, but I appreciate that a draw is a more realistic outcome, however I can't find a valuable bet.
Shamrock Rovers vs UCD
The Hoops suffered their heaviest away league defeat under coach Trevor Croly in the last round at Cork (0:3). They have the imperative to win today because this is their easiest opponent taking into account the last four and three following opponents. Captain S. Robinson is doubtful, but two other midfielders K. Waters and S. McPhail are ready. The Students have played 74 consecutive games that has had at least one goal in it and of their seven games in all competitions this season 28 goals have been scored. They continued unexpected good start of the season with deserved a draw against Limerick in the last round. Coach Aaron Callaghan (who has a good record versus Shams) will be without the most experienced defender I. Ryan and in-form left winger A. Ben Mohamed due to injury.
It is expected that home team going forward fiercely from the start, while on the other side is not a team that knows how to defend well. In contrast, the youngest team in the league have a lot of confidence and will try to threaten the favored city rival from counter attacks. Yep, we should see a few goals and home win here, but looking at odds at my locals I've found only one bet that is attractive to me.
bet: 3-5 goals
odds: 2.20
stake: 1/5
Bray Wanderers vs St Patrick's Ath
Wanderers won a point at tough visit at Dalymount Park on Friday, but I don't believe that it has raised mood and morale of the team. Actually, they had one extra player for 70 minutes and conceded the equalizer in the finish. Another headache for Alan Mathews was the injury of one of their best players, J. Kelly. Another missings are suspended S. Redmond (regular goalie) and injured D. O'Connor, A. Hanlon, E. McGill. The Saints also come into this duel with poor spirits of the team. It can't be otherwise cause they had the lead at half-time against Dundalk in the last round at home, and in the end they lost 4:1 and got two red cards. That's why they will be without the help of two key midfielders K. Brennan and G. Bolger who are suspended, while regular centre back K. Oman is doubtful.
It sounds really crazy that these two are next to each other in the standings after five rounds, because it's about teams that are considered to be the biggest candidate for relegation, and respectively for winning the title before the season. Low morale and important absences in both camps with the anticipated strong wind at Carlisle Grounds suggests a small number of goals. Still Pats undoubtedly have a greater choice of good players and have to win this if they don't want to lose pace with the top of the table.
bet: St Patrick's win to nil
odds: 2.45
stake: 1/5
Gone for four home wins and St Pat's. €2.50 returns €70.
Also decided to stretch that out a bit further and went for what I think to be slightly safer.
Shamrock Rovers -1 @10/11
Sligo v Drogs over 2.5 goals @6/5
Dundalk v Derry BTTS @10/11
St Pats @1/2
Athlone v Bohs BTTS @8/11
€2.50 will return almost €52 euro.
Sligo Rovers vs Drogheda Utd
Four minimal defeats by 1:0 are behind the Bit o' Red, which shows that the long-term injury of G. Peers and R. Cretaro (club legends) are significantly weakened team. In addition, defender S. Connelly and D. North are injured, but attacking midfielder K. Djilali returns to the squad. They are in must win situation as they follow two tough away games against Cork an Pats in the next seven days. Drogs are most comfortable surprise of the opening five rounds, but keep in mind that they still have not played against two Rovers, the current leader Cork and current champions Pats. There are no new absences, M. Schlingermann and P. Crowley are out while C. Brady is in doubt. M. Daly should be back in the line-up, but it is known that they have a small squad so the question is how their key players who are over 30 - A. McNally (defender), D. Doyle (midfielder), G. O'Neill and D. O'Brien (both strikers) will play tonight considering they played the entire match on Friday.
The second from the bottom against the second at the top of the table - another strange situation in the league. The Boynesiders haven't won in the past twelve performances at the Showgrounds, and despite the current form and situation on the table I don't think they'll break this series tonight. On the other hand, I see Sligo's odds as short and unworthy especially after a large decline in the last few hours.
Athlone Town vs Bohemians
It is obvious that the newly promoted team was unable to start a good long-awaited season in the Premier Division. They have recorded all five defeats in the league (even with 14 goals conceded) and have already been eliminated from the League Cup. They have no important absences, but no one knows what the starting lineup will be performed by the most experienced managers in the league, Mick Cooke. Thus he was able to omit A. Byrne (defensive midfielder who is a vice captain) and M. Hughes (young midfielder who was nominated in the FD team of the last year) recently. Bohs didn't win from the first round, but they took one point against Bray, even though they played 70 minutes with ten players on Friday. Manager Owen Heary can't rely on three long term injured midfielders D. Mulcahy, A. Murphy and A. Mulligan, while regular keeper D. Delany is suspended.
Town's must win situation as they follow two away games where would be difficult to reach points by looking at previous away performance. Bohemians may be tired after a tough match three days ago and will be without the first choice goalkeeper. All of this suggests a possible surprise and finally the first point(s) for home side, but I really don't intend to risk until Mick Cooke doesn't improve stuff over there.
Athlone Town 1:3 Bohemians
Although Mick Cooke brought A. Byrne and M. Hughes in the starting line-up, he had a number of new problems last night (captain A. Collins was injured at half-time, another centre back D. Prendergast was sent off in the 54th minute and unusual own goal). Bohs have started carefully with back-up goalie and without two regular strikers (D. Corcoran and S. Beattie who entered later). They played wisely and deserved the new three points, but it can't be said that home side was much poorer. simply, a combination of bad circumstances (those three) are costing them points once again.
Shamrock Rovers 2:0 UCD
The Hoops are expected restore their confidence with the first league start for experienced midfielder S. McPhail. Beside him R. Finn, R. Brennan and G. McCabe were key players for almost completely domination of home team. The Students were rarely dangerous and their best player was definitely a goalkeeper C. O'Donnell who saved two certain goals. It should also be mentioned that Shamrock had as many as three hits in the post in the first half, so that it was fully deserved victory that easily could have been more convincing.
Bray Wanderers 1:3 St Patrick's Ath
N. Cooney played instead S. O'Connor in the Bray's defense, in addition to other changes in the team due to injury and suspension. But that and home ground didn't help them to break a poor series in recent times. Although the Saints started the game without three the top players from last season, their wide midfield was much more dominant. Wanderers unsuccessfully tried to threaten the guests from counter attacks, but it was a well deserved and much needed win for Pats. Their only concerns from this game are the possible injuries of G. O'Brien and K. Fahey.
Sligo Rovers 1:1 Drogheda Utd
It was a dream start for Bit o' Red who scored a goal after just 40 seconds, the first goal after the first round's game. But Drogheda also started with the strongest possible line-up (except D. Doyle) and D. O'Brien who is current top scorer of the league equalized in the first half. However, the second half was marked by serious injury of Drigheda's back-up midfielder A. McCann. Regarding the outcome of the match, Sligo was close to winning as they hit the crossbar and had a disallowed goal. At the end of one point for each team, but the visitors may be more pleased with it, that's for sure.
Dundalk 3:0 Derry City
Guests have decided to go with defensive tactics including both McEleney's and top scorer from last season, R. Patterson on the bench. The most important moment of the first half was a serious injury of their key centre back R. McBride due which game was stopped for over 10 minutes. After that, it all went to the side of the Lilywhites. Captain S. O’Donnell and company have had total domination in the second half, which has become their trademark this season. They scored three goals and could have a few more, so it was totally deserved victory for home side.
Another two units of deficit for me... :uncomfortableness: