US credit downgrade/General recession thread

Surprised there's nothing on the US downgrade yet. (There may be a general recession thread back a while; feel free to merge)

US credit rating downgraded for the first time ever (Moody's are doing credit ratings since 1914). Future outlook is negative. Predictable responses from both sides - US claim this is a disgrace which will become a truism; S&P standing by their call (which they can't have taken lightly). The Chinese are having a go at the US over their debt management (cut taxes and spending is the plan. Again). I heard on the radio that India was criticising the US too, which would be hilarious; can't find anything online about it though.

Googling "US downgrade shares" shows up a number of share drops over the news - Israel down 7%, India down 3%, Saudi Arabia down, Asia down (though recovering later on), Europe down (though we'll know the extent later today after CoB). Billions being wiped off the face of the earth really.

The US don't seem to have any real plans to reduce their debt, and it'll now be harder/more expensive for them to borrow. That can only be bad for us getting out of recession. House prices fell 2% in June, the biggest monthly drop in two years. NAMA is now getting into the social housing market, which can only reduce prices and rents further.

So where's the bottom in all this? Personally, I think Churchill's comments may be appropriate again - "Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning."

Everybody is too busy tryig to offload their stocks :-)

Here in Moscow since Thursday there has been a real hit in currency differential (which is how I've been feeling it). I was able to get 1euro for 39.80rbs, 15minutes ago the same place is charging 41.10rbs for a euro.

This time of year is always messy, remember 2008? A former colleague of mine lost 2/3's of her savings by not living up to her maxim of selling off the bulk of her shares before the summer. She's a trader with ING-Barings and got wiped out.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/busine...on/441709.html

It'll last until the kids are back in school and the J1'ers come home with their wonderful accents.

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Originally Posted by pineapple stu

NAMA is now getting into the social housing market, which can only reduce prices and rents further.

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How do you reckon NAMA selling houses to the government for social housing brings down prices? The state through NAMA owns a large supply of available property in the country and by keeping it in its hands artificially sustains prices by keeping supply low. Instead of selling properties to itself if the state put them on the market they would lift supply and put downward pressure on prices. All state intervention in the property market be it through affordable, social housing, rent relief, rent supplement, interest relief, NAMA etc. keeps house prices higher than they should be which in turn raises the cost of living and necessitates high salaries and makes Ireland uncompetitive.

Don't forget the devil that is RAS and long-term leasing.

Completely correct PS.

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Originally Posted by BonnieShels

Don't forget the devil that is RAS and long-term leasing.

Completely correct PS.

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Thanks, Bonnie, there's probably plenty of others we've left out. The problem is the government used to be accused of acting on behalf of vested interests to manipulate the housing market and keep prices inflated but now government is unquestionably a vested interest themselves. Through both its ownership of several of the banks and NAMA's large property holdings the government stands to lose badly through property finding its proper level, a vested interest if there ever was one.

It's the same with the rental market. I do apologise because I can't remember where I read it and I do ask anyone who can find something to back it up or prove me wrong to post some figures but apparently close to 50% of the rental market is made up of rent supplement. This means the state controls close to the majority of rents in this country and instead of reducing them sustains an artifically high rental market and wastes money from the public purse handing over rent to landlords. Of course again there's a vested interest. Landlords make up the BTL loan books of the banks and if rents dropped further then so would BTL defaults which in turn destroys the bank's balance sheets which in turn costs the state more money in recapitalisations.

As a result of the state's interests becoming intwined with that of the banks it cannot let the property market find its real bottom, at least not in good time. On the other side you have high unemployment, oversupply of property, unavailability of credit, high interest rates and a host of other factors creating downward pressure on prices resulting in this death by a thousand cuts instead.

Well that was the argument against NAMA in the first place.
It would still make more sense to get rid of it now and flood the market and finally shock the country into a proper recession so we can actually get out of it.

Working in social housing you'd think I would know the RS stats but I don't so stall the digger whilst I dig out my notes.

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Originally Posted by BonnieShels

Well that was the argument against NAMA in the first place.
It would still make more sense to get rid of it now and flood the market and finally shock the country into a proper recession so we can actually get out of it.

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The state just can't afford the damage to the banks' balance sheets.

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Working in social housing you'd think I would know the RS stats but I don't so stall the digger whilst I dig out my notes.

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I can't exactly stand over that figure but in any event a sizeable chunk of the market is RS and the point holds but it would be great if you could get the actual percentage.

Can't find any stats other than what you said and an unsubstantiated claim from Sarah Carey stating that over half of the rental market is made up with RS.
I'll check properly in work in the morning.

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Originally Posted by Poor Student

if the state put them on the market they would lift supply and put downward pressure on prices.

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That's what I imagined was happening in my original post. Just read your other one as well now. So it basically seems like we're putting off the inevitable. Ho hum.

Which is why there was sustained talk of bulldozing estates, get rid of the evidence and competition - leave brownfield sites and then when nobody's looking, build up a new estate with an even older name.

Guys, you all seem to have a good grasp of economics (possibly in a professional context)- care to recommend me a book or two I can read that will explain about world economies and what's happening. I used to skip the more detailed chapters on economics when I did my History degree but feel I should know a bit more than I do now. I just finished Ship of Fools by Fintan O'Toole and found it fascinating and depressing in equal measure but obviously I need something that explains more generally how exactly finance works and whats gone wrong. I have Niall Ferguson's The Ascent of Money by my bed, should I read it?

I doubt there's any books out there yet that can clearly and correctly inform what's happening at the moment, mainly because it's so far from being finished.

In terms of learning from the past, Dervla Murphy's interesting and quite forthright. I remember Silverland being quite scathing about the IMF at times, for example. Plus you get a travelogue across Siberia in winter into the bargain. I'd be very interested in her views on Ireland at present.

So I suppose to summarise - I don't know.

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Originally Posted by thischarmingman

Guys, you all seem to have a good grasp of economics (possibly in a professional context)- care to recommend me a book or two I can read that will explain about world economies and what's happening. I used to skip the more detailed chapters on economics when I did my History degree but feel I should know a bit more than I do now. I just finished Ship of Fools by Fintan O'Toole and found it fascinating and depressing in equal measure but obviously I need something that explains more generally how exactly finance works and whats gone wrong. I have Niall Ferguson's The Ascent of Money by my bed, should I read it?

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The Ascent of Money is a sensational read.
Great tv series as well.

Go for it.

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Originally Posted by pineapple stu

So I suppose to summarise - I don't know.

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*"Started badly, tailed off a little in the middle etc" quote*

I'll check out, DM :)

When I;m finished my current book I'll hit up ol' Ferguson BS.

Silverland is quite a read, and spot on about her views on the IMF.

For a general view (which is centre-left populist), some of Michael Moore's offerings explain things quite well. Downsize This and Stupid White Men are quite good. Parallels can be drawn between what happened in Ireland and what went on in, for example, Enron. Where a cozy cartel of businesspeople and politicians were hand in hand in falsifying, inflating and manipulating so that their "products" were moving ever upwards in price.

Follow the Money by McWilliams is interesting, though it is in parts an addition of his first two offerings.

How an Economy Grows and why it crashes - (I don't know the writer's name but he's a Yank) - I read it over New Year and it's quite informative and I have to say it's veyr, veyr simple to go through. If there was a guide for idiots, then this is it - which, yes, makes me a complete numbskull.

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Originally Posted by Spudulika

Silverland is quite a read, and spot on about her views on the IMF.

For a general view (which is centre-left populist), some of Michael Moore's offerings explain things quite well. Downsize This and Stupid White Men are quite good. Parallels can be drawn between what happened in Ireland and what went on in, for example, Enron. Where a cozy cartel of businesspeople and politicians were hand in hand in falsifying, inflating and manipulating so that their "products" were moving ever upwards in price.

Follow the Money by McWilliams is interesting, though it is in parts an addition of his first two offerings.

How an Economy Grows and why it crashes - (I don't know the writer's name but he's a Yank) - I read it over New Year and it's quite informative and I have to say it's veyr, veyr simple to go through. If there was a guide for idiots, then this is it - which, yes, makes me a complete numbskull.

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Found it on Amazon, looks exactly like the kind of thing I'm looking for as it gives a good overview. These are such huge forces that have such a huge impact on lives that I want to try and understand them better. I'll try and have a look at some of the others you mentioned, and I think I'll order that last one (it's by Peter Schiff btw).

TCM, you cannot be more out of step than I was, this book at least pointed me in some decent directions. Thanks for the author name, I was trying to remember when I was positing last time.

There are a couple of good books by more heavyweight economic figures though this one is the best. For the purely Irish situation I'd go for DMcW, he's quite insightful in some places when he doesn't try to be funny!

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Originally Posted by thischarmingman

These are such huge forces that have such a huge impact on lives that I want to try and understand them better.

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I don't recommend it. You'll continue to be flotsam on the wave of forces beyond your ken, only you'll have learned that the highs and lows you're experiencing are mostly illusory, no less powerful for that, and even less well controlled than they are understood.

So, I trawled for proper statistics and its a pain. Have emailed a contact in the DOECLG and await a response.

In the meantime I've been assured that its just over 60% which is scandalous.

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Originally Posted by pineapple stu

That's what I imagined was happening in my original post. Just read your other one as well now. So it basically seems like we're putting off the inevitable. Ho hum.

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Ah, fair enough. Yep, kicking the can down the road.

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Originally Posted by thischarmingman

Guys, you all seem to have a good grasp of economics (possibly in a professional context)- care to recommend me a book or two I can read that will explain about world economies and what's happening. I used to skip the more detailed chapters on economics when I did my History degree but feel I should know a bit more than I do now. I just finished Ship of Fools by Fintan O'Toole and found it fascinating and depressing in equal measure but obviously I need something that explains more generally how exactly finance works and whats gone wrong. I have Niall Ferguson's The Ascent of Money by my bed, should I read it?

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TCM, I'd be like yourself, from a historical background, and I suppose like you I've come to realise recently I came out the other end of my education without any great understanding of economics. I've ended up in retail banking although to be honest my role wouldn't require any knowledge of economics. I've never read any books on the subject (even popular stuff), most of what I've picked up (and it is very basic) has come from the net and articles. On top of the stuff the other have recommended, I'd give the website The Property Pin (www.thepropertypin.com) a go. There's a good concentration of minds there from various backgrounds and across the range of political and economic thought (ranging from survivalist to socialist) and it's very much Irish orientated. A lot of it will go over your head when you see discussions of derivatives, credit default swaps etc. but there's a lot of info for the beginer too.

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Originally Posted by BonnieShels

So, I trawled for proper statistics and its a pain. Have emailed a contact in the DOECLG and await a response.

In the meantime I've been assured that its just over 60% which is scandalous.

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That would be scandalous indeed, I thought 50% might have been a bit excessive! Please let us know when you hear.