Halfway

at the halfway stage, what do you feel our chances of qualifying are now?

i would put them at about 50%. maybe a little more. i don't see us topping the group, but there's a chance we could finish as best 2nd place team (and so qualify automatically) and a strong likelihood that if we're in a playoff we'll be one of the seeded teams.

four of russians remaining five games are at home, so you'd have to favour them to win the group. the slovaks look to have the toughest run in of the current top 3.

Is it too early to start looking at all the possible second place teams yet?! Was scanning the tables this morning and I fancied our chances against pretty much everyone we were likely to play, there's a lot of beatable teams in contention.

Not that we all shouldn't be aiming squarely to top the group. I think this is the best chance we've had to qualify automatically in some years, and a play-off spot should be the minimum expectation.

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Originally Posted by SwanVsDalton

Is it too early to start looking at all the possible second place teams yet?!

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probably, but there's not a lot to think about for the next couple of months...

due to the way the ranking works we should be pretty high. he's the interim ranking:

http://www.world-results.net/uefa/ranking.html#2011

most of the teams ahead of us will probably win their groups, and on probability, one of the others will be the top 2nd place team (if not us).

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Originally Posted by zero

four of russians remaining five games are at home

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And conversely, four of Armenia's five remaining games are away. I think they'll fade away, leaving it between us and Slovakia for second (I think Macedonia are too far behind to qualify now). So could well all come down to the game in September.

I really fear for us if we have to beat armenia at home to top the group or even get 2nd, that sorta pressure on us i dont think we could handle, and though we could score, I would definitely see us conceding, especially if armenia are still in with a shout.

If we beat macedonia away in June then I see us getting at least 2nd. If we don't beat them 2nd will be tough too. I don't think slovakias challenge will last right to the end. Lets just hope that armenia can do us a favour in russia too, but I doubt it.

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Originally Posted by zero

probably, but there's not a lot to think about for the next couple of months...

due to the way the ranking works we should be pretty high. he's the interim ranking:

http://www.world-results.net/uefa/ranking.html#2011

most of the teams ahead of us will probably win their groups, and on probability, one of the others will be the top 2nd place team (if not us).

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Does that effect the pot we would be in for WC 2014? If so we would be bottom second seeds at present.

40-60 at best. The only thing that would help us in the play-offs might be 'the law of averages'.

Unless there's a major change in personnel, given Trap's uber-defensive attitude (& our lack of ability to hold onto a lead), there's no way we'll win in Macedonia. Doubtless GT would take a draw now.

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Originally Posted by ArdeeBhoy

there's no way we'll win in Macedonia.

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We're the only team in the group to win in Armenia, and they're better than Macedonia, so I wouldn't agree "there's no way we'll win in Macedonia"

Call me old-fashioned but I'd be more optimistic. Even with a draw in Macedonia, I fancy us to beat Slovakia and Armenia at home. Enough to take second place and still there's the Russia game and there's no reason we can't get a positive result there. Particularly if we've just beaten the Slovaks.

Anything could happen but I think the scrappy nature of the group will suit us more than the others. We're fairly accustomed to having to fight for every point.

I don't fancy us in any of the remaining games! We make such a hash of putting teams away that I find it hard to see us suddenly getting more clinical. I have every faith that we are capable of doing it, I just think it's more likely than not that we'll be regretting missed opportunities or careless goals conceded when the group is finished. I really hope we see some tinkering with the shape before we go to Macedonia, in order to cure our ball retention and general ineffectiveness in CM problem.

Supreme Feet is right when he says that Doyle & Keane being two of our best players almost forces Trap to go 4-4-2 but sometimes maybe less is more.

For my money, Doyle is the obvious choice out of the lot, for the lone striker role. The way he got control of the ball surrounded by defenders and laid it off to McGeady who scored, was evidence enough.
Trap states that goals have to come from somewhere if Keane were to be dropped and he thinks that we are not capable in that department, i.e. goal scoring midfielders.
I think we are getting there and the Brady view of Trap is of a team that evolves as the trusted players become more confident.

Just looked at the overall standings -

http://www.uefa.com/uefaeuro2012/standings/index.html

We're right in the mix for that automatic second-place spot and we should be confident of challanging for it right to the end, if not actually winning the group. Another 10-12 points from the remaining five games is not a massive challange and would be see us right on course.

In effect, I think we need to start hoping that Montenegro start dropping points and trailing off because if they were to top their group then there's a likelihood that England would take the best second place.

Also, Group F is definately one to keep an eye on. Croatia (one point behind Greece who have 11) have mainly home games left against relatively easy opposition. Their game v Greece in Athens in October will be of Irish interest if the groups continue in similar fashion.

Of course, this is purely speculation until the campaign progresses further.

Austria have a game in hand too as do turkey so that group could be in the mix too.

But as you say too early to suggest anything. I really do think the win away to macedonia is vital, especially in terms of pressure and breathing space.

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Originally Posted by paul_oshea

Austria have a game in hand too as do turkey so that group could be in the mix too.

But as you say too early to suggest anything. I really do think the win away to macedonia is vital, especially in terms of pressure and breathing space.

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The away win in Macedonia is imperative for a variety of reasons.

It will help us continue to build up a sense of momentum ("winning is a habit" etc etc) , it counters Russia's win against Macedonia and while stating the blindingly obvious - most importantly, its another crucial 3 points.

I think we'll win in Macedonia. They were lucky to get a point against Armenia at home. The way we set up makes it easier to play away from home. Probably have to score two goals again to win but we look capable of doing that against this Macedonia team. Good chance Doyle will be back. We will miss Dunne but O'Shea and St ledger should be back. McCarthy might have played his way into a starting spot by then. I'd be reasonably optimistic we can get the three points.

I said on Saturday that we're one good performance in Moscow away from topping the group. I don'tthink we're anyway good but the way other results are going it wouldn't surprise me

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Originally Posted by Wolfie

The away win in Macedonia is imperative for a variety of reasons.

It will help us continue to build up a sense of momentum ("winning is a habit" etc etc) , it counters Russia's win against Macedonia and while stating the blindingly obvious - most importantly, its another crucial 3 points.

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Ya exactly, there are loads of reasons but the pressure and breathing space are the ones that make the next games easier. If we draw or even lost to macedonia it makes slovakia home a must win and at least a draw against the Russians, whereas we could realistically draw those games and still finish at least 2nd...and when we don't have pressure on us, we perform a hell of a lot better.

Gah! Spent ages typing then my computer crashed. So i'll keep this brief:

At this halfway stage i feel the same way that i always do - we've gotten some decent results and have a realistic chance of 1st or 2nd, but still haveNT beaten a biggie and imho don't look like beating one either. So i think we'll go close but fail, yet again.

I'd hate a three team on 21 points scenario and us losing out, with Slovakia drawing with us and Russia.

It's time one of Tets' xcel charts.

With 5 games to go I'd predict.

(6) Russia > Armenia, Slovakia > Andorra, Ireland > FYROM (russia, slovakia, Ireland 13. Armenia 8)
(7) Ireland = Slovakia, Armenia > Andorra, Russia > FYROM (Russia 16, Ireland/Slovakia 14, Armenia 11)
(8) Russia > Ireland, Slovakia = Armenia, FYROM > Andorra (Russia 19, Slovakia 15 , Ireland 14, Armenia 12)
(9) Armenia > FYROM, Ireland > Andorra, Slovakia = Russia (Russia 20, Ireland 17, Slovakia 16, Armenia 15)
(10) Ireland > Armenia, Russia > Andorra FYROM = Slovakia

Final Table

Russia 23
Ireland 20
Slovakia 17
Armenia 15