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With Labour now just one point ahead of Fianna Fáil in today's RedC, and FF traditionally benefiting on the day from high pensioner turnout, will Martin's party find themselves with the second-best seat tally on Saturday, watch as FG struggle with the renegotiations and possibly a default, and return to Government Buildings within five years? It seems hardly credible now, but given the short-term memory of the electorate, it can't be ruled out.
That's normal in this country. But the seat system here means that if the combined FG-Labour total is higher than FF, FF are in opposition.
I was listening to a podcast today (from Dunphy in Cork) and was reminded that 17% of those saying they'd vote were undecided. I think today it's down closer to 10%, but that's enough to swing an election, and people will vote local - hence FF getting a decent turn out. Some of the media luvvies will adore the FF'ers back in power as a) their jobs are secure and b) they will have more to sneer at the serfs about. However I can still see FF picking up 30-odd seats and angling for a return to power with Labour. They're trying it now, not out of desperation, but being cute hoors. They'll go in with Gilmore as leader, then shaft him and in 2013 a new election gives them 60 seats and they cobble together a coalition of the willing-to-deal.
There isn't the remotest possibility of a Lab-FF coalition this time round. The sums don't add up. FF will do better at the ballot box than the polls suggest because of the local clientelist/brokerage system, and because I feel their support is understated. Tricky Micky has spent the weekend playing to the conservative, die-hard FF vote, and that will result in a few marginal seats being retained, maybe taking them up to the low 30s. But that would leave Labour needing 50 seats to be the main party of government, and I'd be pretty sure they won't break 40. They will do better on transfers than FF, I reckon, with ULA and some independent tranfers by and large sticking on the left.
I think FF will be the third biggest party, just a few seats behind Labour. Whether they're the biggest opposition party depends on how close FG get to 83 seats, and whether they can do a deal with handful of independents. My guess is that won't happen, so an FG-Lab acrimony-riven coalition is on the cards, with FF returning to power inside three years. The question is, with FG and Labour likely to be punished by the electorate then, who would have the numbers to jump into bed with FF?
FG-Labour coalitions have been very stable in recent history, bar the 81-government. They are natural partners, unlike FF-Greens or FF-Labour.Quote:
Originally Posted by Eminence Grise
We're in the last week of FF-headed power after almost a decade and a half. Some were not born since they gained power, many don't know any other government than FF in it. The country is about to experience more than just a political change.
And the '82-87 government, which had very serious moments of instability, though it managed to run its full course. So in fact, only one of the last three FG-Lab coalitions has actually been very stable. I'd put this down to personnel rather than any latent coalitionability of parties. FG-LAb stability is one of the great myths of Irish politics, like we vote for the stability of single party government (a rarity if you look at the results over the years).
I'd dispute whether a left of centre (however well they manage to hide it) Labour and a hard-on for the free market FG are natural bed fellows, and the campaign has only served to highlight the differences between them: taxation, unions, debt etc. Now, a lot of that is down to dirty FF cunning in driving a wedge between them, but I think that Labour are going to have to eat a lot of humble pie if they're going to go into coalition with FG. Gilmore for Taoiseach? He might not even be Tanaiste...
I hope you're right that the country is going to see profound change this time. Not just politically, but culturally too, I hope. It's hard to credit that FF last lost a general election in 1982. Far too long...
I wouldn't take too much notice of the so-called "War-of-Words" between them, they will form a coalition quite quickly if they need to.
The 82-87 government only lasted 4 years, but stabilised a difficult national political situation at the time and achieved the Anglo-Irish Agreement.
Not sure either FF or FG are natural coalition partners to Labour. Policy wise, it is obvious that the most natural coalition would be FG-FF, and always has been. Level of corruption is the main difference between the two of them. If it is FG-Labour, I wouldn't take it as a given that'd it be stable on the current numbers. If FG are only a few seats shorts, then a FG-Labour coalition would have a massive majority which creates it's own issues, as back benchers feel they can do solo runs safely.
I don't know how many times I have to say it - FF-Labour won't have the numbers this time. Any bounce in FF support on election day will probably be at the expense of Labour, so I don't see how that can change between now and polling day. Whether there is an FF bounce in polling booths is a different matter - you'd think that even on similar first preferences, Labour will be more transfer friendly from both FG and in particular left wing independents and smaller parties.
At this stage, I don't know where I stand on what Labour should do on the current figures. Long term it may be in Labours (and the national) interests to stay out as main opposition party, if that materialises to be the case. Short term pain of a FG led without a calming influence for their nutjobs versus the opportunity of a left-right split and a future leftist Government.
Natural partners for Labour also are the Shinners, but as they won't jump with them, and won't entertain FF, they have no choice but to go in with FG. The two parties are so close together, they even arranged a pact 2 years before the last election. They'll do a deal if needs be, but Labour will be negotiating from a position of weakness rather than strength.