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I'm not going to comment on Martin, I'm not going to comment on any of them. I can only say, why only 3 leaders? Now this is going to be a complete game, listening to the Labour mouthpiece using sports analogy.
I really can see a FF-Labour government coming in. I've said it before and will say it again.
I think the debates should be 5 way. I'd include the ULA too, except they don't really have a leader and probably aren't really a coherent enough body yet to have one.
I'd say 5-way with Sinn Fein and the Greens involved.
ULA don't seem to have a leader, if it is it's Joe Higgins as well and as much as I admire the man he takes an age to say anything
The Greens, Labour, FF, FG, SF were the 5 scheduled, however despite my democratic ideals I can't see the Greens being around after the elections, however it will be a good thing for them to get a slap, spend some time rebuilding and then get back into the mainstream. It was horrible to see how they were ridden roughshod in Germany, then went out of the spotlight, now they're back and a lot more clued up.
FG want to have a go at SF (on economics), Labour want to hammer FG and FF, Martin figures he'll show off his, until now hidden, oratorical brilliance. It's a little sad.
Would a five person debate be a bit diluted? As it would just be too much lying and false promises to fit into to the designated time. Its usually one for the major and one for the minor parties.
Given the opnion polls its arguable wether FF shuld be included in the major parties.
FG-FF much more likely. I've also said it before and will again, Labour-FF won't have the numbers, even if you don't believe Gilmore. It's obvious why Gilmore would be happy 3 way debate - he's better than both of them, plus he'd be fairly sure that Kenny wouldn't agree.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spudulika
As for the debate - should be 4 way, including SF. Any 3 way should be FG - Labour - SF, as they're the only realistic office holders in some guise or other.
Has anyone ever seen a 5 way debate ? I think even a 3 way debate is a little crowded. All good debates should be 1 v 1.
The debate I'd like to see is the main centre right party - FG take on the main centre left - Labour. Leave FF out, they've had 13 years, and are at 14% at the polls - why should we listen to them ?
If our national broadcaster could set this up or even TV3, it could even be a baby step in ending civil war politics.
Even in a 90 minute debate, having five leaders would severely restrict the number of questions asked, and the alloted response time for each speaker. Four-way would definitely be more manageable, the question then being do you choose the fourth party based on poll ratings (Sinn Féin) or current Dáil numbers (Greens). Gilmore missed a trick by agreeing with Martin, in so much as Adams is a woeful TV performer, and it's obvious which party would suffer more from SF's exclusion. Sky want to follow up their UK election debate by getting in on the action, it wouldn't take long for our leaders to wind up Adam Boulton!
Macy I know where you're coming from on supposing what the coalition will (probably) be. However I won't remove the tribalism that will flow forth yet again for FF, the fear of progress and the gombeenism that will leap from the polling booths. Right now everyone is slamming FF, but in the booth it's a different matter. In the debates I believe EK will be poor, JA not good, MM sly and successful, EG a little too blustery and JG so-so.
I can see 5 leaders being a bit much, however the media want FF in, across the board.
I think one thing the debates will do is tie the leaders down to any promises they do make. I know it wont make them enact them but it is much more effective to show a clip of them promising the complete opposite to what they then go ahead and do, than to jsut qoute manifestos. The famous George Bush snr "read my lips, no more taxes" comes to mind.
You can get that at 16/1 with Paddy Powers which is very mean odds. I cant see it happening. There is no way Labour will go with FF.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spudulika
Assuming it's Adams. Wouldn't be as confident of the shinners getting shown up by Doherty or even Ó Caoláin (Leader of SF in the Dáil), who they could justifiably put up.Quote:
Originally Posted by culloty82
I propose two seperate debates.
One between the major parties, Fine Gael and Labour
And another one between the minor parties Sinn Fein, The Greens, The ULA (if they can agree a spokesperson without causing six or more splits :) ) and Fianna Fail.
The ARROGANCE of Michael Martin! They haven't gone away you know........
Its simple, if FF want a 3 way debate then that automatically means that a 5 way debate is best for the country.
Martin waffling on about posturing, soundbites and reform yesterday yet today he's pulling a cute hoor stroke by trying to exclude SF from the debate who are polling similarly. Different face, same FF self-interest BS.
I also find it hypocritical of Labour agreeing with FF to a 3 way debate when in previous elections they've been whinging about themselves being marginalised by FF and FG but now have no problem with other smaller parties not getting a piece of the pie. A major own goal from them for that reason and siding with FF & Martin when they should be distancing themselves from FF at all costs.
Sky can also feck off with their request for a televised debate, debates of this importance need to be accessible for all Irish people
The UK Sky debate was also broadcast by the BBC, albeit not live. I'm sure something similar would be done with an Irish one also being shown by RTÉ, even if it was with a one or two hour delay.
I think that people are underestimating FF. With the Martin / Cowen disconnect, they can pull their standard approach of being against the government on a party wide scale, not just individual basis. Polls count for nothing, as we have seen in several elections. The reality is that in the booth, an awful lot of voters will vote as they have always voted, as it is easier than having to embrace change, however slight it is. I'd be very surprised if FF or Ind FF or I Can't Believe It's Not FF don't pick up a reasonable first pref, and a large amount of transfers "Just to be sure".
And the real reason most people will tune in to the debate, aside the old GAA style loyalty to their respective parties, will be to see how Martin can defend the indefensible. Which he will do successfully in the minds of far more people than I would like to credit. Without him, ratings will not be any good. Aside from the more intelliigent people, who would probably tune in to Oireachtas report regularlyl (popular show that), who really wants to see a back and forth between Inda and Gilmore for 90 minutes?
Agree with you most of the way Bluebeard- I think FF could harvest a decent 1st preference vote but may struggle for transfers. That's the pattern seen in Donegal SW and unless the campaign throws up something may well also be seen on a wider basis.
A big part of Martin's job will be to get traditional FF voters to vote at all- many in the byelection seem to have stayed at home.
I can't contribute anything more at the moment but Gilmore is really grinding my gears.
Martin wants a three way debate so he can try to highlight policy differences between FG and Labour to try and raise the spectre of unstable government or worse (ff perspective) a left-heavy programme for government.
As someone else above said if FF want a 3-way debate then a 5-way debate is better for the country. If people don't have the attention span for it then tough. Blame the soundbite meeeja, blame family guy ...whatever -but give FF NOTHING on their terms.
I'd agree that FF may get some boost, but it depends on whether Martin can really pull off the disconnect, when he's been around the cabinet table since 97. He's managing it now with RTE still in pravda mode, but once some semblence of balance kicks in over in Montrose, will he be able to maintain it? He's getting a very soft ride at the moment, not being pulled up on all this political reform stuff that he's had 14 years to do from within bloody Government, for example. And he's getting credit for the same half arsed "apologies" that Cowen got hammered for. He's still on honeymoon.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bluebeard