Will Obama lose in 2012?

Tomorrow, America goes to the polls in the mid-term elections and even the most optimistic predictions suggest the Democrats will lose control of the House of Representatives and will just about cling on to their Senate majority. The big question though, is what the trends will be for 2012, with the Tea Party wing of the Republicans likely to win a sizeable number of seats, increasing support for Palin. With a swing to the right and Obama's ratings falling, will he end up a one-term president? Michael Bloomberg among others is also thinking of running for the Republicans, and with Clinton tipped to be the VP for next term, the run-in to 2012 should be interesting.

I hope to god the teabaggers don't get in. A bigger bunch of callous hypocrites you'd be hard pushed to find. "The government should stay out of our lives. Except when it's making it mandatory to display the Ten Commandments in schools, and banning homosexual marriage"

It looks as though it might be that way now, but in reality there is very little chance of him losing.

Who have the Republicans got? Palin and McCain. Palin has no chance of winning a national election because she draws support almost entirely from the right wing. Her core support will always be good but that's it. She hasn't a hope in hell of winning over moderate voters, even if a large section of the American electorate aren't really happy about certain parts of Obama's administration e.g. healthcare reforms.

McCain would in principle have a chance of doing that, but there were questions over his age before and they certainly won't have become less prominent with the passing of 4 years. Maybe McCain runng on a ticket with a solid, dependable moderate Republican (i.e. not Palin) would have a chance.

Really though, there doesn't seem to be a prominent candidate that would mount a serious challenge. I guess Bloomberg would have a good chance in a national election, but how popular would he be with the party's core voters? Palin would win in a primary campaign amongst the social conservative voters by a long way.

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Originally Posted by peadar1987

I hope to god the teabaggers don't get in.

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There's a teabagging party?

I'd pay to see their convention!

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Originally Posted by culloty82

With a swing to the right and Obama's ratings falling, will he end up a one-term president?

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Yes. He's the incumbent during a recession, so he has had to make unpopular decisions. He also came to power on the back of a great deal of optimism which has been disappointed by political realities. It doesn't matter whether or not the recession's not his fault, or whether or not he's done well given the constraints he's had, I can't see him getting re-elected. The reality is that the electorate as a whole is fickle, short-sighted and stupid, and he's doomed by circumstance unless the GOP pull a really terrible candidate out of their collective ass.

And what's wrong with either of those things?

Do you have a kid in school? If they don't get religion there they don't get it at all. It's not like it used to be when we were kids in school in Ireland. Those behind banning the Ten Commandments from school are for banning religion altogether. Lest they forget humans have had religion for thousands of years. And as for banning homosexual marriage - nearly all Tea Party memebers and Republicans nowadays support gay rights - it's the forcing of society to accept something other than one man and one woman (as marriage) which is the sticking point.

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Originally Posted by mark12345

Those behind banning the Ten Commandments from school are for banning religion altogether.

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Please provide evidence for this statement.

The tea party movement is a union of the paranoid, racist and stupid (along with a minority of people with more noble aims). Portrayed as a grassroots bottom up anti-politics movement, it's anything but that, controlled and directed by big donors whose interests are served squarely by tax cuts and formed almost exclusively of white people.

It's sole contribution to American society is proliferating the myth that Obama is a foreign Muslim.

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpu...is-muslim.html

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Originally Posted by mark12345

Lest they forget humans have had religion for thousands of years.

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Baldrick: But my lord, I've been in your family since 1532...
Blackadder: So has syphilis! Now get out!

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Originally Posted by OneRedArmy

The tea party movement is a union of the paranoid, racist and stupid (along with a minority of people with more noble aims). Portrayed as a grassroots bottom up anti-politics movement, it's anything but that, controlled and directed by big donors whose interests are served squarely by tax cuts and formed almost exclusively of white people.

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For the benefit of those who haven't seen it George Monbiot's excellent article on just this subject.

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Originally Posted by mark12345

Do you have a kid in school? If they don't get religion there they don't get it at all.

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So you care so much about your children's religious indoctrination that you want it taught to everyone's kids in schools but not enough to teach it to them yourself?

Schumi, he can't figure out the difference between "mandatory" and "optional", or "religion" and "organised religion", you're wasting your time. He can come back with proof of his earlier statement, or he can bugger off to wherever the Star readers post their crap. The Boards.ie After Hours forum is probably ideal, populated as it is almost entirely by clinical morons.

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Originally Posted by dahamsta

The Boards.ie After Hours forum is probably ideal, populated as it is almost entirely by clinical morons.

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Are these cold and objective morons, or residents of psychiatric wards with late-night internet access?

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Originally Posted by mark12345

And what's wrong with either of those things?

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Well, seeing as you asked:

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Do you have a kid in school? If they don't get religion there they don't get it at all.

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I don't, and brilliant. Religion isn't the sort of thing I want drilled into my children. Education belongs in schools. Religious indoctrination belongs in churches.

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It's not like it used to be when we were kids in school in Ireland.

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And the country is far better off for it.

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Those behind banning the Ten Commandments from school are for banning religion altogether.

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I don't want the Ten Commandments in schools, but I fully support peoples' right to choose their own religion. Having any one thrust upon them by organisations that receive my tax euros is nothing short of curtailment of my religous freedom. How would you feel if your money was used to fund Muslim evangelism?

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Lest they forget humans have had religion for thousands of years.

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The appeal to tradition argument holds no water.

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And as for banning homosexual marriage - nearly all Tea Party memebers and Republicans nowadays support gay rights - it's the forcing of society to accept something other than one man and one woman (as marriage) which is the sticking point.

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You don't have to accept anything, as much as you really should (and let's not forget that marriage used to be defined as "one woman and whoever her father chose to give her away to"). What gay rights activists are pushing for is recognition of their relationships as long-term committments, affording them such rights as the right to adopt a child, hospital visitation rights, next-of-kin rights, and everything straight couples in this country have been allowed for decades.

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Originally Posted by dahamsta

...The Boards.ie After Hours forum is probably ideal, populated as it is almost entirely by clinical morons.

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I was going to ask for a citation, but then I read that forum.

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Originally Posted by The Fly

Are these cold and objective morons, or residents of psychiatric wards with late-night internet access?

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The latter, but I was going for http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moron_(psychology) ;)

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Originally Posted by peadar1987

Education belongs in schools. Religion belongs in churches.

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Religion belongs in schools too, educationally speaking. All religion though. Preferably after science, so they can apply what they pick up there to the idiocy that organised religions come out with. I'd like to see my child write an essay entitled "Compare and contrast Catholicism and Scientology". After all, it's the same old sh*t.

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Originally Posted by John83

I was going to ask for a citation, but then I read that forum.

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It's awful. It used to be entertaining, now it's just twaddle and ignorance.

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Originally Posted by dahamsta

Religion belongs in schools too, educationally speaking. All religion though. Preferably after science, so they can apply what they pick up there to the idiocy that organised religions come out with. I'd like to see my child write an essay entitled "Compare and contrast Catholicism and Scientology". After all, it's the same old sh*t.

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You're dead right. I've fixed my post. I'd actually like to see world religion and culture given more prominence in schools. In today's more globalised economy, an introspective, xenophobic nation isn't going to do much lucrative business. Mind you, I'd also like to see more maths and science, and languages need a complete overhaul. The only thing I'd actually cut down on are the literature sections of the English and Irish courses [/derail]

For starters, we'd probably get along a hell of a lot better with muslims if we had a better understanding of their beliefs. The ignorance out there is astounding, but again that comes back to my old favourite bitch: the media in general and tabloid journalism in particular. There's dumbing down and there's just plain dumb like.

Although this photo was apparently taken in 2003 at an anti-war counter protest, it sums up the American right and teabaggers nicely.
http://t2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:A...B1GSMqAX9Iaqo=
The Republicans will no doubt gain control of congress and maybe the Senate. Because of this, there will be gridlock in Washington, as the party of 'No' have made it clear there won't be any compromise. This is why I feel, no matter who they pit against Obama, he'll retain the presidency.

Obama and the Democrats have performed woefully in failing to sell their message and to expose the insanity of the tea party mental cases. The Republicans to do well, act like a load of loopers in the house and senate and hand Obama victory next time round.