Labour - really serious contenders?

Tonight's Millward Brown poll for TV3 suggests that the Labour surge of recent months is real, registering as the party with largest support.

Labour 35% +16
FG 30% -4
FF 22% -5
Ind. 8% -2
SF 4% -4
Greens 2% NC

Somewhat sceptical that Gilmore can translate that support into seats, they've virtually zero support in Connacht, Ulster and rural Munster, and no evidence that they can win back traditional touchstone constituencies like Kerry North and South among others. Kenny must be vulnerable to another coup after further losses even in the midst of FF's woes, while the fact that a fifth of voters are still prepared to back the Soldiers of Destiny defies all logic.

Interesting that SF support has halved, and judging by those particular numbers it seems like Labour are taking support from pretty much everyone.

It still remains questionable whether Labour can translate its poll figures into seats of course, incumbents have a major advantage. But a hell of a lot of them will be sweating.

Don't know where Labour got 16 points from. It wasn't from anything they did anyway.

You always get this during a recession, support goes to the left. Unfortunately we're too dumb (collectively) to realise that Labour are likely to be led around by the nose by FG in a coalition, and happily so too.

Even if they did get in with a majority - and I don't think they will when push comes to shove, because of the dumb b*stards that'll continue voting FF because mammy and daddy did - the Irish public also doesn't get that when you get right down to it, "modern" Labour is about this much -> <- more left wing than everyone else.

Perhaps if they put down the Star and the "Irish" Mail for a minute and actually educated themselves about what's going on, we might make some progress. They could learn why Cowen encouraging us all to go out and spend more is quite possibly even dumber than the statements he slurred at Morning Ireland last week. Or that they might not actually need a 2010 car...

Enda for Táiniste after that poll.

I have to say, although I dislike Gilmore, I'd get a small amount of joy in seeing Kenny relegated to second-in-command.

Is this not something similiar to what we just witnessed in the UK, with the Liberal Democrats looking like grabbing massive gains then status quo returning? The Irish public do not have the guts to get rid of FF, no matter what happens we'll always get the government we deserve, and it'll be a madcap coalition again. SF will get 4-6 seats, the Greens maybe will get 1, Labour will gain but still be minor partners in a coalition with FG or FF. And gombeens like the Healy Raes will get back in.

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Originally Posted by Mr A

It still remains questionable whether Labour can translate its poll figures into seats of course, incumbents have a major advantage. But a hell of a lot of them will be sweating.

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On Vincent Brown last night, they said that Labour are on 40% in Dublin - that's pretty much 2 seats a consituency, and in the running for a 3rd in many. Also, they're getting named candidates in the West, for example Crowley - they have a name and on the Labour ticket, but on those figures just getting names on the ballot may be enough.

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Originally Posted by Dahamsta

Unfortunately we're too dumb (collectively) to realise that Labour are likely to be led around by the nose by FG in a coalition, and happily so too

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Maybe people are copping on and that's why Labour are ahead of FG. On those figures the only FG led coalition will be a FG-FF one!

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Originally Posted by Spudulika

Is this not something similiar to what we just witnessed in the UK, with the Liberal Democrats looking like grabbing massive gains then status quo returning?

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Were the Lib Dems ever ahead? Also, you can't discount the difference in electoral system as to how the Lib Dems ended up actually down in seats on a higher vote.

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Originally Posted by mypost

Don't know where Labour got 16 points from. It wasn't from anything they did anyway.

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I don't think keeping their head down last week whilst Biffo went on radio "under the weather", and Coveney tweeted did them any harm. There's a couple of times that Labour have come out looking the better by not getting involved in petty arguments.

As a general comment, I think the Sunday Business Post have a poll out on Sunday, which has consistently stated Labour support down on the other polling companies. It'll be interesting to see how that one goes, but as a Labour supporter my feeling since the results were out last night is "Yes we Feckin Can"! :)

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Originally Posted by dahamsta

You always get this during a recession, support goes to the left. Unfortunately we're too dumb (collectively) to realise that Labour are likely to be led around by the nose by FG in a coalition, and happily so too.

Even if they did get in with a majority - and I don't think they will when push comes to shove, because of the dumb b*stards that'll continue voting FF because mammy and daddy did - the Irish public also doesn't get that when you get right down to it, "modern" Labour is about this much -> <- more left wing than everyone else.

Perhaps if they put down the Star and the "Irish" Mail for a minute and actually educated themselves about what's going on, we might make some progress. They could learn why Cowen encouraging us all to go out and spend more is quite possibly even dumber than the statements he slurred at Morning Ireland last week. Or that they might not actually need a 2010 car...

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This pretty much sums up my view.

I've no confidence that when people actually have the ballot in their hand they can stop the unconscious tick in the civil war box.

Also, short of FG appoint Seanie Fitz as party leader, I'm not sure they could do any worse given the circumstances.

It would all be hilarious, if only the circumstances weren't crying out for good Government and even moreso for strong opposition.

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Originally Posted by OneRedArmy

Also, short of FG appoint Seanie Fitz as party leader, I'm not sure they could do any worse given the circumstances.

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However, another failed coup and they'd be pretty fooked imo.

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Originally Posted by OneRedArmy

I've no confidence that when people actually have the ballot in their hand they can stop the unconscious tick in the civil war box.

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What he said Macy. The only polls that have any value these days are exit polls, and tbh I think they should be banned anyway, I think they bias the ballot.

I see Tony Grealish has withdrawn support for FF, might be tough to get the budget legislation through the Dail. Christmas election anyone?

Does anyone know what exactly is the story at the moment. How many votes do the government actually have ? I thought FF were down to 70 with 2 PD and 6 Green and 5 IND - that makes 83 + the CC that makes 84. Is Grealish's decision likely to make any difference ?

Fair play to Grealish. Vote for them on every decision that landed the country in a mess, then bolt late on in a transparent attempt to safe your seat. Never mind that Harney is/was a PD too.

The worst thing is that people will probably buy it and re-elect him.

There will be FF backbenchers eyeing the same route mind you.

Can't remember the maths, but I think David McCullough on the News at One said with Grealish gone the Government have 81. That also takes into account the FF TD's that lost the whip, and Behan who vote for the Government the whole time anyway. O'Sullivan has also voted with the Government on a number of occassions that would seem (to me at least) contrary to her/ Gregory's base irrc.

I personally see most of the Government Supporting TD's as showboating when losing or handing back the whip. Even if there was a vote on the issue's they're supposedly are taking a stand on, at best they'll abstain rather than vote against Government.

If they only have 81 votes then I can't think of a better reason to have a general election.

Mr A's right in that Grealish can be put down with McDaid, Devins and Behan in the "Will never actually vote against the Government" independents' club. Gilmore is like Clegg in that the bounce will quickly burst unless/until he actually comments on policies regarding jobs and the economy, likewise putting distance between his party and the unions to attract FF/FG voters, but not so much as to scare off civil servants could also prove fatal. On Fine Gael, many people made redundant by the recession are middle-class professionals, who you'd imagine would be natural party supporters, so that's an issue the Dublin wing needs to address.

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Originally Posted by Real ale Madrid

If they only have 81 votes then I can't think of a better reason to have a general election.

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That's only whipped votes. They can count on another 4 at least in a confidence/ finance motion. Losing other votes are an embarrassment not necessarily cause for an election.

Labour have plenty of policy documents - it's amazing how easily the media and the public buy FF (and FG) spin about this (2 clicks from their homepage ffs for the list). There was some FF goon on Newstalk with the same craic, and then later wanting a "National Government" including Labour who 5 minutes previously had no policies and nothing to add! Thankfully it wasn't RTE, so he was pulled up on it.

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Gilmore is like Clegg in that the bounce will quickly burst unless/until he actually comments on policies regarding jobs and the economy,

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http://www.labour.ie/policy/

It does seem like it may begin to have a snowball effect, after two bad weeks domesitcaly, economicaly and internationaly.

Grealish's "withdrawal" is pure guff, he's essentially withdrawing his support on a single issue as a pressure point. He needs to withdraw his support unconditionally or STFU and stop talking out his the side of his mouth.