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Still over a year away, but Fergus Finlay, Michael D. Higgins, David Norris and Bertie Ahern have already confirmed their interest, and one survey offered Mary O'Rourke, Emily O'Reilly, Mary Davis and Máiread McGuinness as possible choices. Norris at least is the most original of a fairly bland line-up, though whether he could win nominations from four councils is another matter.
Finlay is the stand out candidate of those declared, not sure he'll get the Labour nomination though. I don't see the big deal about Norris tbh.
Michael D, good for Ireland, good for the League of Ireland!
One would hope Bertie Ahern would have to wait at least two terms to have his role in Irish Politics re-evaluated in a more flattering light -by which stage he'll be in and around 70. One would hope.... but in this country nothing would surprise me.
Many of the people on that list have no interest in running. Finlay has re-invented himself with his Barnardo's job, but this is the guy who lobbied for the tobacco industry with Wilson Hartnell PR in between his Labour gigs, and who took a lot of undeserved credit for Mary Robinson's election. (Phoenix have a bluntish hatchet job on him in the current issue.) He's not particularly liked in the party, and unless he does a lot of lobbying is unlikely to get the nod over Michael D, which would leave him counting on getting 4 local authorities. I think Labour would probably see their current paper levels of support as being enough to get a candidate with broad appeal elected. Michael D would also pick up disenchanted FF votes in the west, which Finlay is unlikely to do.
FG could have reasonably credible candidates. I've heard Mairead McGuinness mentioned a few times, but she's too canny to rule herself in or out. It's been a while since her TV and journalism work, and being in Brussels hasn't increased her profile as much as Ear to the Ground did. John Bruton has also been mentioned, and he could do well. At least he has a track record as Taoiseach and EU ambassador to the US to push his international statesman credentials (or should that be salesman, given the nature of our presidency?)
Norris is entertaining and gets passionate about issues, but the presidency usually requires a more phlegmatic individual. I met him at a Junior Chamber do years ago, and he's a decent man - always get my Senate vote - but he's not likely to get 4 councils backing him, especially if the party HQs insist on discipline and one candidate only.
Is Ahern really a contender for FF? God forbid. The thought of fourteen years of that smarmy git makes my stomach churn. But Cowen doesn't like him, and I'd be fairly sure that a royal shafting for Ahern would go down well with a lot of FFers outside the capital. I thought Brian Crowley was lining himself up, and his long stint in Brussels would work for him, because the same distance that doesn't help Mairead McGuinness means he's untouched by the banking/builder croneyism of the party domestically. He's articulate, bright and a right of centre, conservative Catholic, which appeals to a certain type of voter, and he also polls up to a double quota in the European elections.
I can't see the Greens running anybody, except as a token candidate (Trevor Sargent, Nuala Aherne maybe?), and they would probably be well advised to save their money for the general election campaign, where it will be more needed.
Which leaves SF. A few years ago, you'd have gotten decent odds on Gerry Adams taking the Army Salute outside the GPO on Easter 2016. But he lacks credibility down here (mainly from the minor party leaders' debate on Prime Time during the last election) and even though there are rumblings of a power struggle initiated by members in the Republic, there's no credible candidate. Mary Lou McDonald is a spent force.
I can't see any independents or fringe parties (SP, PBP, SWP etc) getting nominated to run, so I think it'll be a Labour or FG president, and I'd lean towards the latter, even though I'd like to see Michael D.
I really, really want Bertie to run. Just to see him resoundingly beaten.
I'll drink to that!Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr A
....with a plank with nails on the end.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr A
You forgot to finish your sentence there Mr. A. Happy to oblige.
While there are positives for each candidate, even Bertie (I have to gob to the side), the best person for the job is Norris. There are very simple and concrete reasons why.
1. The pink economy - I read a terrific position paper on this from a Stanford student 2 years ago (at a conference on FDI) which drew links between tolerance of alternative lifestyles and growth. Now alot of this was purely academic, though there is a definite positive to be gained.
2. Promotion of tourism, culture and the arts - Norris is clever enough to step away from the fruitloops like Aosdana and astute to embrace modern music and theatre, as well as be bitingly critical of the destruction of the environment. I was only a child on the march to prevent the destruction of the greatest Viking site in Europe, both he and Mary Robinson lay down in front of bulldozers and diggers, if I remember rightly he was dragged away by 2 roughnecks from Carlow and walloped.
3. Eloquence - having seen our unelected President in action again last week (in the flesh) I can only say that she's not a person I want to speak on my behalf, how someone makes a piece of trash like Luzhkov look like a statesman I'll never know. She was more wooden than that little Italian kid with the big nose. Norris can speak well, has other languages and is very quick on his feet.
5. Clean - with respect to all the others on offer, Norris is one of the only people involved in Irish politics who I would consider as having clean hands. Having met him both inside and outside the Oireachtas on more occasions than I can count in the last 30 odd years he's somebody with a conscience who would be the perfect statesman.
6. Practical - he knows the value of a euro and this will help him get investment into Ireland. He was one of the first people to attempt to remove the nefarious stranglehold held by the RSAI and corrupt individuals in the DOE to allow proper historical and archaeological investigation of sites and studies in Ireland. Not to mention highlight the wholesale destruction of the environment as well as the massive and illegal removal of the archaeological record of our country, while pointing out that much was being done in cahoots with those who were tasked with protecting it.
If Bertie gets in.....well, we get the government we deserve!
My own pref is Fergus Finlay but think it's way too early to talk about it as McAleese only came to the fore 7 weeeks from the elction in 1998. In other words, I wouldn't like Norris or Finlay to start canvassing to be upstaged and piped at the post in 14 months time by someone not even considered at this juncture.
For Bertie to be considering it is another middle finger to us all.
Yeah def but could you imagine if he actually won it!!!! Irish people and their love of voting for monkeys:mad:Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr A
Sean Kelly has a decent chance if he goes for it.
Looks like he is putting his name forward now.
So, Bertie Ahern tells the people of Poland not to make his mistakes, and announces his candidacy in the same sentence - the words snowball, chance and hell come to mind.
The man is clueless. He really is.
He really isn't. He's just overconfident.
I don't know if he's even that; the slimy little ******* could win.
I didn't say the Irish weren't idiots in the face of overconfidence...
He also managed to get the "it was Lehmans wot dun it" line in again as well.
George Hook made a promise last year that if Bertie ran he would run as an anti-Bertie candidate.
Great, dumb and dumber...Quote:
Originally Posted by OneRedArmy