LOI round 12

I'm guessing eL Bettor is still in tears at Waterford's inability to score in the first half against that pub team. :p

Odds here: http://odds-comparison.bestbetting.c...p--of-ireland/

There's not a whole lot that interests me so far, except a tasty 9-5 on us (Sligo Rovers) on the Draw No Bet market with Willy. Might have a cheeky punt on this as, though the table doesn't show it, I think we are slightly less worse than Pats at the minute.

5/6 on Fingal ht/ft (Hills again) might be worth looking at, too.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by brianw82

5/6 on Fingal ht/ft (Hills again) might be worth looking at, too.

---

Depends on how our list of injuries is this weekend

Definitely value in our game against Waterford. Still undecided about it. I think they are missing Cummins. I have a feeling their centre backs will keep our strikers quiet. Edging towards an away win at present.

Personally, I'll be staying away from the Kildare v Shelbourne game. Kildare have a new centre half, Dean Lawrence, ex-Shamrock Rovers and Shelbourne. He seems to have improved the defence quite a bit already judging by the (very biased) report on KCFC's website. That 2-nil will feel like a small victory for them, and Shels laboured badly against Longford on Friday for long periods (was at the game)

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by DmanDmythDledge

Definitely value in our game against Waterford. Still undecided about it. I think they are missing Cummins. I have a feeling their centre backs will keep our strikers quiet. Edging towards an away win at present.

---

So Waterford are missing their top scorer yet you still think there is value in an away win? :confused:

Brian, I'm on that 9/5 also on Sligo DNB with Hlls.

As for Kildare - Shels, to say the report on their website is biased is an understatement, it claims their first win of the season can't be far away, I remember thinking during the first half that I will have no reservations against continuing to bet against Kildare for the foreseeable future.
Shels are a best price 1/6 which I would have no fears about lumping on. If someone asked me to lay them 1/20 on Shels I wouldnt give it to them (that is if the bookies weren't going 1/6!).

What do people think about Mons away to Harps? I was amazed at the 13/5 given on Mons. That was before Paul Hegarty resigned but even still I'd only have Harps at slight favourites.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by DmanDmythDledge

Definitely value in our game against Waterford. Still undecided about it. I think they are missing Cummins. I have a feeling their centre backs will keep our strikers quiet. Edging towards an away win at present.

---

You're under rating your side big time. You lot are quality and if I can get around 2.5ish on Betfair I shall be lumping on. You have beaten us and Fingal so far. WUFC have lost to ourselves and drew with Fingal. While WUFC are on a great run they haven't faced any decent sides in the past number of weeks.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by eL Bettor

Brian, I'm on that 9/5 also on Sligo DNB with Hlls.

---

That's big alright considering a Sligo win with PP is 15/8. I won't be getting on either though as both sides lost 3-0 in their last fixtures and Sligo are behind them in the table.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by eL Bettor

What do people think about Mons away to Harps? I was amazed at the 13/5 given on Mons. That was before Paul Hegarty resigned but even still I'd only have Harps at slight favourites.

---

Monaghan's record at Finn Park is absolutely woeful though, and we've been starting to look a little better. With Gethins and hopefully Funston back I think we'll nick this one.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Raheny Red

That's big alright considering a Sligo win with PP is 15/8. I won't be getting on either though as both sides lost 3-0 in their last fixtures and Sligo are behind them in the table.

---

Pats have lost 7 games, we've lost 5.
They've conceded 19 goals, we've conceded 13.
They've only scored 1 more goal than us.
Their 4 wins have come against Cork and ourselves (both of whom hadn't started playing yet at the start of the season), Dundalk (hot and cold) and a laboured victory over bottom team Drogheda.
We (generally speaking) don't put in 2 **** poor performances in a row.

Plenty of reasons to go against Pats right there. I'd agree with you in the sense that, on a purely analytical level, it's not a betting fixture. However, the odds on that DNB are too good to pass up.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by eL Bettor

So Waterford are missing their top scorer yet you still think there is value in an away win? :confused:

---

You've still got Kiely, who I rate a good bit more than Cummins. Our keeper is well dodgy, as is our defence although only slightly. Our prefered line-up is to play without a midfielder who sits back and this would be exposed if Waterford play to their potential (have to wait for team news on that one though). Also I'd be surprised if Waterford concede more than one goal with the central defence they have- Murray and Browne are better defenders than Kilduff and McMillan are strikers.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Raheny Red

You're under rating your side big time. You lot are quality and if I can get around 2.5ish on Betfair I shall be lumping on. You have beaten us and Fingal so far. WUFC have lost to ourselves and drew with Fingal. While WUFC are on a great run they haven't faced any decent sides in the past number of weeks.

---

We haven't faced anyone decent either. We are far from quality- we haven't really been tested so far this season. Fingal massively underperformed against us and Shels, while missing arguably their two best players, had the better of the game when both sides had the same amount of players on the field. I don't think we've been tested in the games that I've seen this season, bar Wexford.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by DmanDmythDledge

We haven't faced anyone decent either.

---

You've faced 10 of the 11 other teams in the division, and come away with 9 wins. You can't really argue with that.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by brianw82

You've faced 10 of the 11 other teams in the division, and come away with 9 wins. You can't really argue with that.

---

Actually that was in response to RR's last point about Waterford's recent opponents. Same applies to us.

At the same time, we would have had 2 less wins if we faced a Shels and Fingal side playing to their potential. We're in a slightly false position.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by DmanDmythDledge

You've still got Kiely, who I rate a good bit more than Cummins.

---

Kiely is their top scorer isn't he?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Schumi

Kiely is their top scorer isn't he?

---

They both have 7 actually. Cummins got four against Monaghan, which slightly skews his tally.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by DmanDmythDledge

We're in a slightly false position.

---

Have to disagree with you again. That display against us a few weeks back was the best I've seen since Shels were demoted. Judging by the outright betting Fingal are still being over rated by the bookies and they still don't thin UCD are up for the challenge. UCD have played 12 games so far 2 in the cup and 10 in the league, winning 11 and losing just one.

I'll have to agree with dman on this one, bizarrely. I still don't think we're good enough to go up. I definitely don't think we're good enough to stay up. We're dodgy in goals and, although the players are definitely improving (Boyle in particular), I think a team with a decent midfield (where we've really controlled most of our games) could easily put one or two past us. Shels, while we had 11 players, really should have had us out of sight. We were fortunate that we took our two chances in the first half; that's something we've only done against Shels and Fingal. Against Athlone for example, we missed about four open goals. If we continue to finish as laxly as the last few games, Waterford could easily punish us. If we respond to Waterford putting it up us (as, arguably, we did against Fungus and Shels), we could well win. I'm staying clear of that game personally.

Sligo, Limerick and Harps win, UCD - Waterford draw.

€10 returns - €382.83 with PP.

My choices this week:

St Patrick's Athletic -v- Sligo Rovers

I've already run through the reasons for this bet. 9-5 on us on the DNB market with Hills is just too good to pass up. Incidentally, this price has lowered to 5-4 now, so there's obviously a bit of money going onto this one. However, it is very speculative, which is why I'm only putting a fifth of this week's stake on it.

Sporting Fingal -v- Athlone Town

Fingal have stumbled just a little bit recently, and can consider themselves unlucky to come away from the Mervue game with only a point. They are 6 points behind UCD now, and they know they'll need to put another winning run together. Athlone are no great shakes, and should be disposed of easily enough. The only question mark is whether Fingal decide to mix up their team a bit with the league cup QF a few days later, but their squad should be good enough to cope.

Backing Sligo Rovers to win, Draw no bet (Will Hill) @ 9-5 - 0.5 pt
Backing Sporting Fingal to win (Bet365) @1-3 - 2.1 pts

Some of ye guys are hilarious - i have no doubt at all that UCd will coast this league :)