Harvard Business Review - When losing leads to winning

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07/04/2009, 9:12 PM
Paddy Garcia

Harvard Business Review - When losing leads to winning

"Basketball's Halftime Advantage

Not surprisingly, the basketball team in the lead early in a game wins over 2/3 of the time, and the further a team is ahead, the more likely it is to win. Every 2 points better a team is doing relative to its opponent at halftime increases its probability of winning by 8%. But an analysis of 6,572 NCAA basketball games recently published by two Wharton School professors shows that this relationship changes significantly when one team is only slightly behind the other. Teams losing by 1 point at halftime end up winning more often than teams winning by 1 point. The study's authors surmise that players (and employees) are motivated to work harder and perform better when they're just shy of a goal."

http://qbox.wharton.upenn.edu/docume...nd_Winning.pdf

OK, I know its a long shot posting this, nonetheless so true for us. I thought it was just us - as opposed to a scientfiic phenomena.

I've seen quite a few comments about the difference in our performance against Bulgaria and against Italy. I've also seen us sit back on leads over the years, time & time again, only to give up victory. Sometimes when we score early I feel sick in the knowledge that we will be living on a knife edge for the next XX minutes, inviting the opposition to have a go as we protect what we have. We have to learn to kill teams off - even from a scientific perspective!

If we score one goal, then we should have a tactic which requires us to go ALL OUT for a second. Especially if its in the first half. Trapp please take note.

I was gonna call this "Better from the Front or Behind ?" - but thought better of it.
07/04/2009, 9:16 PM
Stuttgart88

Maybe we should take a leaf out of Stephen Hunt's book and just ignore the first goal in a game.
07/04/2009, 11:11 PM
eirebhoy

I never really understood commentators when they said scoring before half time was the perfect time to score. Couldn't disagree more. Chances are in a close game it's going to be the other team coming out for the 2nd half all guns blazing.

Anyway, psychology is always going to play a huge part in sport and it's only natural for a team winning by 1 goal to protect that lead. A lot of the time there's just simply nothing a manager can do to stop this (ie. extra time of a cup final). But we sat back against Bulgaria more by choice imo.
07/04/2009, 11:19 PM
Crosby87

Yes as has been discussed they definitely play better with their backs against the wall.
I honestly don't think you will see Ireland sit on a lead for the rest of the campaign unless they only need a draw in that last game and score first.
07/04/2009, 11:37 PM
eirebhoy

Quote:

Originally Posted by Crosby87

Yes as has been discussed they definitely play better with their backs against the wall.
I honestly don't think you will see Ireland sit on a lead for the rest of the campaign unless they only need a draw in that last game and score first.

Trap's teams have been sitting back on leads for as long as I can remember, he's not going to change now.

I read quotes (today or yesterday) from Trap saying the players have to learn not to attack like they did at 1-1 on Wednesday as they were nearly caught out in doing so. I can't for the life of me find the quotes though.
08/04/2009, 1:47 AM
Crosby87

I understand that but Trap also said they will have to go down swinging rather than what happened against Bulgaria.
08/04/2009, 6:42 AM
noddy102

The players should be brainwashed prior to a game, into believing we are losing by a goal.
08/04/2009, 9:53 AM
seanfhear

we could always give the opposition an early goal as a tactic and it might also confuse them with this unusual tactic !:D
08/04/2009, 9:59 AM
Schumi

Quote:

Originally Posted by seanfhear

we could always give the opposition an early goal as a tactic and it might also confuse them with this unusual tactic !:D

Stan tried that, didn't work too well.
08/04/2009, 10:47 AM
livehead1

Quote:

Originally Posted by eirebhoy

I never really understood commentators when they said scoring before half time was the perfect time to score. Couldn't disagree more. Chances are in a close game it's going to be the other team coming out for the 2nd half all guns blazing.

Anyway, psychology is always going to play a huge part in sport and it's only natural for a team winning by 1 goal to protect that lead. A lot of the time there's just simply nothing a manager can do to stop this (ie. extra time of a cup final). But we sat back against Bulgaria more by choice imo.

The club I play for were dreadful in the first half but scored on the stroke of half time to make it 1-1. We then went on to dominate the second half winning 3-1; I believe it can often have an impact on mentality.
08/04/2009, 5:16 PM
Stuttgart88

I think eb is right about psychology. He drilled the point home after the late concession of an equaliser in Tel Aviv when Kerr took a lot of flak. It's a natural thing to do and if you're good enough and lucky enough you'll get away with it.

I remember watching Liverpool away at Juventus shortly afterwards just hoofing it, losing possession consistently and withdrawing deeper and deeper for the last 20 minutes, protecting their 2-1 home lead. After living on the seat of their pants and surviving a few near misses they got away with it, 0-0. That was considered a job well done yet there was barely any discernible difference between what they did and what we did - in fact we did more with the ball than they did.

At least what Trap does is minimise the chances of these goals. We are a well drilled team without the ball, much better so than before. I'd like to see us better drilled with the ball too but hopefully that'll come.