Getting out while the goings good!

[Reality Bites]

A number of people I know in the construction industry have or are planning to take a leave of absence from this country for 1 to 2 years till it recovers from recession, where would your preference be and have any of you considered jumping ship in the current climate - there are construction booms in Australia, Germany and Dubai at the moment all I thinks have their benefits!

[KevB76]

I heard recently (can tremember which radio station) a short list of countries which currently need to find more builders - there were several european countries mentioned, including UK and Poland.

[Newryrep]

If they dont want to stray too far London will be starting to ramp up shortly (Olympics)

[dahamsta]

1 to 2 years till it recovers from recessionThat's what I'd be hoping for, but I'm increasingly sceptical that it'll be this short...

[Poor Student]

That's what I'd be hoping for, but I'm increasingly sceptical that it'll be this short...

Well, with such a gross oversupply of unoccupied property we're unlikely to have such a demand for construction workers in a good while. Retrain or emigrate are the options.

[Billsthoughts]

There is no gross oversupply of property. there is just no value to be had. there is still people looking for somewhere to live and there always will be. but they arent going to pay thru their nose for an apartment in the current climate. a readjustment of prices would stimulate demand. problems in the building trade are partly due to the mentality. how do you go from massive profits to marginal profits? My mates a builder and he was moaning about having no work. he said he had a load of jobs priced but nobody would commit. didnt occur to him to take the work and drop his price.

[dahamsta]

Sorry, but no. 180k empty houses is a gross oversupply. And they've been empty since before the eastern europeans they were supposedly built to accomodate upped and left.

adam

[Billsthoughts]

point still stands. according to the Society of Chartered Surveyors Housing Study 2007, there’s very little surplus in Dublin.

[pete]

London seems to the first option for many as close to home & no language barrier.

I still see building in Dublin. Big apartment complex with hundreds of units in the old Phoenix Park race course still going although looks to be slower than was this time last year. With over supply location seems to be even more important - would not like to be trying to sell a house in the middle of no where when other options closer to jobs.

[dahamsta]

point still stands. according to the Society of Chartered Surveyors Housing Study 2007, there’s very little surplus in Dublin.According to the slightly-less invested CRO, there's about 45,000 surplus properties in Dublin. The Surveyors would seem to have an odd understanding of the phrase "very little".

adam

[Billsthoughts]

How does the CSO define an unoccupied dwelling?
Was it just nobody there to answer the census? Or are there strict criteria?

[Macy]

Sorry, but no. 180k empty houses is a gross oversupply.
Depends where they are though. The Government fooked up by continuing to give tax incentives for building properties 80 miles plus from where they were actually needed...

[dahamsta]

Billsthoughts, you'll have to research that in detail yourself, but it's certainly not "they didn't answer de door loike". The subject has been discussed in this forum, Boards.ie, AAM, PropertyPin, etc.


Depends where they are though. The Government fooked up by continuing to give tax incentives for building properties 80 miles plus from where they were actually needed...
According to the slightly-less invested CRO, there's about 45,000 surplus properties in Dublin.Granted that's Dublin county, but there's 10k in Dublin city, 11k in Fingal, etc, etc...

Again, this subject has been discussed on other sites and this one before and I don't think we need to go around in circles with it again here. The simple fact is that there's an oversupply in Ireland, and saying otherwise is simply not accurate. Move on.

adam

[monutdfc]

- there are construction booms in Australia, Germany and Dubai at the moment all I thinks have their benefits!
I'd suggest researching conditions for construction workers in Dubai before you hop on the 'plane. (Unless you're an engineer, surveyor or the like.)

[OneRedArmy]

point still stands. according to the Society of Chartered Surveyors Housing Study 2007, there’s very little surplus in Dublin.
This is based on an unrealistic assumption of property ownership. Everyone feeling that they had to own property was based on a Celtic Tiger era belief that it would produce higher returns than any other investment.

I'd have a lot more faith in the CSO findings and my own experiences where most new apartment blocks are half empty.

[Billsthoughts]

Well saying there is a "massive over supply" is a ridiculous assertion. It implies that all people want the same type, location and sized dwelling. Its meaningless. The CSO figures are meaningless also unless they have some sort of predefined criteria.

[dcfcsteve]

This is based on an unrealistic assumption of property ownership. Everyone feeling that they had to own property was based on a Celtic Tiger era belief that it would produce higher returns than any other investment.



The investment side of it alone - there's an extreme attachment to the concept of home ownership in this corner of Western Europe.

People in England, for example, talk almost as if they have a right to home ownership - even if they can't afford it. You never hear people demanding that they should own a car they can't afford, or a swimming pool or whatever - but when it comes to housing, people assume it's a right that everyone should be able to access - regardless of how their personal situation stacks up against the market realities at that time.

It's a harsh point to make - but no-one has a right to own anything, particularly if they can't afford it, abnd a better grasp of that fundamental reality of life wouldn't hurt some people.

Then there's the economic impacts of such a high level of home ownership.....:eek:

[dahamsta]

Well saying there is a "massive over supply" is a ridiculous assertion. It implies that all people want the same type, location and sized dwelling. Its meaningless. The CSO figures are meaningless also unless they have some sort of predefined criteria.They do, and you need to research it if you're going to rebut them as "meaningless". Data for the size, type and location of these dwellings is available too, either raw or analysed on the CSO website or in hundreds of thousands of search results. Again, move on and get back on topic.

adam

[anto1208]

London for the olympics, The east coast of OZ is very good large mining industry there now that cant get enough people to work. Dubai also .

It depends on your level, engineers cad tecnicians can name there price , workers can get decent jobs out there now.

I wouldnt recomend going for a year id say 5 would be a better idea.

This problem has very simple solutions its just the people we have in charge like to sit on things rather than just solve them. we normally build 80k houses a year this year it will be about 40k. Is our whole ecomonmy surviving on the construction of 40k house ?? of course not, but the inactivity from the goverment letting the country slide into this ressesion is what will screw us all. Companies are panicing and letting people go to cut costs and its all having a knock on effect.

[Reality Bites]

I don't think Brian Cowen as a Solicitor was correctly qualified to guide the economy during his tenure as Minister for Finance, This post should be occupied by an Accountant / Economist or someone else from the finance sector not a Solicitor, no wonder he let it slide into the mess its currently in, Cowen did not have skills required, and for chrissakes we now have a Barrister in that post talk about square pegs into round holes!:confused:

[OneRedArmy]

I don't think Brian Cowen as a Solicitor was correctly qualified to guide the economy during his tenure as Minister for Finance, This post should be occupied by an Accountant / Economist or someone else from the finance sector not a Solicitor, no wonder he let it slide into the mess its currently in, Cowen did not have skills required, and for chrissakes we now have a Barrister in that post talk about square pegs into round holes!:confused:I think you're over-estimating the influence of Government ministers. They are very strongly advised by civil servants, at least some of whom are skilled in their area.

Cowen certainly made mistakes in his tenure, not least a failure to damp down the property boom in the last few years, but this recession was unavoidable and I'm not sure anyone in the FF/PD Goverment would've done any better (not really a body of deep economic thinkers.....!).

[dahamsta]

Recession is generally unavoidable, but the scale of it can be managed and the failure to dampen down the property boom is not a mistake, but the mistake; of a lifetime.

Cowen's lack of qualification in money matters is only a tiny part of the problem: any moron could see what was coming and should have been able to figure out that the actions that did take place - as advised by civil servants or not - were absolutely guaranteed to make things worse, not better. Cowen couldn't, because he was tainted by Fianna Fail's ever-present problem: take the short-term fix, ignore the long game, hope for the best. Ultimately he's a greedy man in a greedy party, like most of his colleagues in Fianna Fail.

Sadly, there are very few people in Irish politics that aren't guilty of the same thing. They don't care about the people they represent, they care about themselves and their image, and occasionally the party if it suits them. The people are just an annoyance, a faithful - yet pretty thick - dog that needs to be patted or smacked every now and then to keep them in order.

adam

[Macy]

They are very strongly advised by civil servants, at least some of whom are skilled in their area.
Assuming they take on board what the Civil Servants say, which they usually don't.

[DIFChick]

For anyone who wants to look into migrating to Oz. Meetings are held first Tuesday of every month in the Red Cow Hotel in Dublin.

http://www.migrationabroad.com

I know a handful of lads that have gone over on a Skilled Migration Visa (for construction work) and all seem to be doing very well bar one slacker who didn't get sponsored after his visa was up.

[dcfcsteve]

I don't think Brian Cowen as a Solicitor was correctly qualified to guide the economy during his tenure as Minister for Finance, This post should be occupied by an Accountant / Economist or someone else from the finance sector not a Solicitor, no wonder he let it slide into the mess its currently in, Cowen did not have skills required, and for chrissakes we now have a Barrister in that post talk about square pegs into round holes!:confused:


That doesn't reflect the reality of politics though.

Firstly - as ORA said, there are permanent officers/civil servants who are skilled in each Minister's brief who are there to give them guidance/advice. You only need to think back to the old TV programme 'Yes, Miinister' to get an inkling of where the real power in a government often lies. The job of a Minister for Finance is not to be an expert economist - it's to make political decisions in relation to political priorities on the basis of the expert information given to them by their civil servants.

Secondly - you can't dole ministerial portfolios out on the basis of relevant experience : a nurse or doctor doing Health, a former Gard doing Crime/Community Safetty, an athlete doing Sport, a roads protestors doing Environment etc etc. Because in politics you get the pool of 'talent' that the public elects - and that is almost certain to not include the requisite broad sweep of talent required to fill all those jobs with someone who's deemed suitably qualified. And anyway - having Ministers who are good politicians is more important than having ones who are experts in their short-term brief, as that is what their role is to do.

[beautifulrock]

Will be interesting to see what happens in the UK as well. One thing that I think will come as a shock to those in the construction industry is that the wages they commanded 10 years ago, in the UK, are not now available. As an example a brickie would have expected to earn in the region of £100 a day 10 years ago in London, now they would be lucky to get £75. The cost of living, in the meantime, has jumped massively so the easy trip across the water is not that appealing at this moment in time.

[dcfcsteve]

Will be interesting to see what happens in the UK as well. One thing that I think will come as a shock to those in the construction industry is that the wages they commanded 10 years ago, in the UK, are not now available. As an example a brickie would have expected to earn in the region of £100 a day 10 years ago in London, now they would be lucky to get £75. The cost of living, in the meantime, has jumped massively so the easy trip across the water is not that appealing at this moment in time.

I've no idea what Labourers were getting paid 10 years ago in London, but there's certainly been no significant drop in the prices demanded by English labour over the four years I've been involved in property here. Despite all the cheap Eastern Europeans, there's been a continuous shortage of tradesmen.

The wage figures you've quoted would amount to a 61% drop in wages, once inflation is taken into account, acoss a 10 year period. If that has been the case, I can assure you that it's been kept very quiet - and builders aren't reknowned for being quiet on anything, particularly their pay.... :)

Also - the Olympics will dubtless push prices up, as it needs to suck in so much labour. Initial figure I heard a couple of years back was that they'd require 70,000 labourers across the cycle of the build. The Olympics is an immoveable deadline that the government will throw money and people at to ensure it is completed on time, so I suspect an increasing boom in the building trade in the city in the years between now and 2012.

[beautifulrock]

[QUOTE=dcfcsteve;974288]
The wage figures you've quoted would amount to a 61% drop in wages, once inflation is taken into account, acoss a 10 year period. If that has been the case, I can assure you that it's been kept very quiet - and builders aren't reknowned for being quiet on anything, particularly their pay.... :)

Not that quiet Steve, have an ask around, you will soon hear the stories. I have actually erred on the sider of caution with some of those figures. I know for sure agency chipies are on £11 an hour for an 8 hour day.

I am not sure about labourers and fair enough if what you have seen is no movement.

[pete]

You only need to think back to the old TV programme 'Yes, Miinister' to get an inkling of where the real power in a government often lies.


That show ws funny because it was true. The government is run by senior civil servants
.

[seanfhear]

[quote=dcfcsteve;974288]
The wage figures you've quoted would amount to a 61% drop in wages, once inflation is taken into account, acoss a 10 year period. If that has been the case, I can assure you that it's been kept very quiet - and builders aren't reknowned for being quiet on anything, particularly their pay.... :)

Not that quiet Steve, have an ask around, you will soon hear the stories. I have actually erred on the sider of caution with some of those figures. I know for sure agency chipies are on £11 an hour for an 8 hour day.

I am not sure about labourers and fair enough if what you have seen is no movement.
this is the one thing that construction workers do keep quiet about because where is the benefit in letting people not involved in construction know if your wages are falling.There will be no sympathy not even if you cannot find work and prospective employers wil only take advantage and reduce wages further.Unfortunately for me i have been through one major recession before and know what is to come.During other downturns going abroad was an option but this time where can workers go.America[no] England[plenty of cheap european labour]If anyone knows where there is well paid construction work i believe that there would be many interested parties

[dcfcsteve]

[quote=beautifulrock;974387]
this is the one thing that construction workers do keep quiet about because where is the benefit in letting people not involved in construction know if your wages are falling.There will be no sympathy not even if you cannot find work and prospective employers wil only take advantage and reduce wages further.Unfortunately for me i have been through one major recession before and know what is to come.During other downturns going abroad was an option but this time where can workers go.America[no] England[plenty of cheap european labour]If anyone knows where there is well paid construction work i believe that there would be many interested parties

Trust me - if any one in any job had seen their wages drop by 39%, I think yiou'd soon hear all about it !! Either that or it's the world' best kept secret.

And does it not seem strange to you to have such a drastic cut in wages for employment sectors thatv have faced continuous skills shortages over the last 5-10 years ? Supply and demand and all that....

I have to listen to builders most days of the bloody week - I work in the buiolding/property game. They'll grumble about absolutely everything, but they never seem to be short on dough. I don't know any tradesmen over the age of 35-40 who don't have a good life-style. If you aren't making good money by then, you obviously haven't mastered your trade.

There's only one way that the cost of trademen in England has gone over the last five years, and it certainly isn't down....

As for the cheap European labour in England - you're about 6mths behind. Huge numbers of them have legged it back to Poland etc -where the cost of living is much lower, there is a huge shortage of tradesmen, and they feel more at homne and closer to family. Just like lots of Paddies came back to Ireland for our boom.

[seanfhear]

[quote=seanfhear;975103]

Trust me - if any one in any job had seen their wages drop by 39%, I think yiou'd soon hear all about it !! Either that or it's the world' best kept secret.

And does it not seem strange to you to have such a drastic cut in wages for employment sectors thatv have faced continuous skills shortages over the last 5-10 years ? Supply and demand and all that....

I have to listen to builders most days of the bloody week - I work in the buiolding/property game. They'll grumble about absolutely everything, but they never seem to be short on dough. I don't know any tradesmen over the age of 35-40 who don't have a good life-style. If you aren't making good money by then, you obviously haven't mastered your trade.

There's only one way that the cost of trademen in England has gone over the last five years, and it certainly isn't down....

As for the cheap European labour in England - you're about 6mths behind. Huge numbers of them have legged it back to Poland etc -where the cost of living is much lower, there is a huge shortage of tradesmen, and they feel more at homne and closer to family. Just like lots of Paddies came back to Ireland for our boom.
there never has been any sympathy for construction workers in hard times .I believe the reason is that people confuse the ordinary worker/tradesman with the subcontractors/builder that rips them off at every opportunity.Believe me working for some of these subcontractors/builders is not a barrel of laughs in the good times so you can imagine how much fun it is when times get tougher.Remember worker/ tradesman is not equal to your builder/conman,subcontractor/get rich quick merchant

[beautifulrock]

[QUOTE=seanfhear;975103]

Trust me - if any one in any job had seen their wages drop by 39%, I think yiou'd soon hear all about it !! Either that or it's the world' best kept secret.

As for the cheap European labour in England - you're about 6mths behind. Huge numbers of them have legged it back to Poland etc -where the cost of living is much lower, there is a huge shortage of tradesmen, and they feel more at homne and closer to family. Just like lots of Paddies came back to Ireland for our boom.

Steve, no trust me on this I have been in London since 1988 I have seen the up and the downs and the comings and goings. Only yesterday I spoke to a chipie who went home 8 years go and is now back in London. He is working for 25% less than when he left. Its no myth, like I said ask around.

As for been 6 months behind, now thats just funny. I know people who are in the labour hire business and getting workers is a simple task (the majority from Eastern Europe with a sizeable North African influnce). getting them work is the hard bit.

[seanfhear]

[quote=dcfcsteve;975283]

Steve, no trust me on this I have been in London since 1988 I have seen the up and the downs and the comings and goings. Only yesterday I spoke to a chipie who went home 8 years go and is now back in London. He is working for 25% less than when he left. Its no myth, like I said ask around.

As for been 6 months behind, now thats just funny. I know people who are in the labour hire business and getting workers is a simple task (the majority from Eastern Europe with a sizeable North African influnce). getting them work is the hard bit.
This is from a guy in the middle of the cut and thrust.The truth is out there as i say construction workers dont bleat because they know their is not much sympathy out there and what good will it do them.

[seanfhear]

i dont know if this quote function is working properly as some of the above quotes have the wrong user name

[dcfcsteve]

This is from a guy in the middle of the cut and thrust.The truth is out there as i say construction workers dont bleat because they know their is not much sympathy out there and what good will it do them.

I'm not sure where exactly the middle of the cut and thrust is, but I do a fair bit of slicing and inserting myself.

We have two different teams of builders ourselves. One used to be almost entirely Polich, but we've lost five of those recently - plus a Ukranian guy who decided to go to Poland with them ! So we're back to using Englihs subbies until the team can get built back up again.

Either we pay far too good money, or we're hiring the wrong people, but in the four years I've worked in the game salaries have only gone up, not down.
As I said at the start of the thread, I wasn't around to know what wages were like before then - but I can't understand how wages for very speciailised trades can go down during an unprecedented boom in their trade and a record shortage of their skills. That defies every possible rule of economics and common sense.

Anyways - the building trade is cyclical by nature, so builders should have put a good bit of fat away in the boom times to cover the lean periods that will inevitably follow. It's those that didn't do this, or who just won't accept the cyclical natuire of their trade, who will be looking at notions of chasing dollars all around the world.

[seanfhear]

I'm not sure where exactly the middle of the cut and thrust is, but I do a fair bit of slicing and inserting myself.

We have two different teams of builders ourselves. One used to be almost entirely Polich, but we've lost five of those recently - plus a Ukranian guy who decided to go to Poland with them ! So we're back to using Englihs subbies until the team can get built back up again.

Either we pay far too good money, or we're hiring the wrong people, but in the four years I've worked in the game salaries have only gone up, not down.
As I said at the start of the thread, I wasn't around to know what wages were like before then - but I can't understand how wages for very speciailised trades can go down during an unprecedented boom in their trade and a record shortage of their skills. That defies every possible rule of economics and common sense.

Anyways - the building trade is cyclical by nature, so builders should have put a good bit of fat away in the boom times to cover the lean periods that will inevitably follow. It's those that didn't do this, or who just won't accept the cyclical natuire of their trade, who will be looking at notions of chasing dollars all around the world.
perhaps you would like to share the rates that you pay tradesmen so that we can decide if we agree that they are so good

[seanfhear]

awfully quiet dcfcsteve

[dcfcsteve]

awfully quiet dcfcsteve

FFS - haven't you heard of 'le weekend' ? :o

I look after the appraisal, design, planning, architects, local liason, actual selling etc of our projects.

My business compadre looks after the actual build-out, as he used to own a builder's firm - though we both share the liaison aspect.

I therefore see the top line spreadhseet of how much everything is costing us to build-out. Hence why I know our labour costs haven't been falling - and ceratinly not by any noticeable amount - without knowing the detailed figures of how much we pay each painter, plumber, chippy etc per minute/hour/day etc.

However - when I initially appraise a potential project, I use standardised costs per square metre/room for each trade. The costs I use in this have not changed in 4 years. After every project we review how we did versus projected costs, and invariably projects come in higher, not lower. So no evidence whatsoever of costs having gone down for labour over the 4 years I've been involved in the game.

For the record - we estimate projects on the basis of £33.36per sq metre for decorators, £44 psqm for plasterers, £32.28 for stripping out/demolition, for example.

Now, I'm off to watch a bit of telly now, and I've quite a few meetings tomorrow morning, so I'll only be on here occassionally over the next few days. I hope that's ok with you...