New UEFA national team coeffecient system

[eekers]

http://www.uefa.com/uefa/keytopics/kind=64/newsid=698237.html?cid=rssfeed&att=index

Basically uefa are changing the system for working out the seeds to the european championship (fifa are still usign fifa ranking for world cups). The new system takes in the result from the last 3 qualfying campaigns and the last 2 final tournaments (previously they only used the qualifying and not the finals!). So for euro 2012 they'll take into account wc2006(qualifying and tournament), euro2008(qualifying and tournament) and wc2010 (qualifying). full pdf here (http://www.uefa.com/MultimediaFiles/Download/uefa/KeyTopics/69/80/93/698093_DOWNLOAD.pdf)

not sure whether to put this thread in world football or no?

[irishultra]

We have finished third in last two competitions, so if we qualify, we should be ok.

[eekers]

i cant see us getting into the second pool for the 2012 qualifiers tbh. we'll be stuck in the third pool til qualifiers for wc2014

[gspain]

This only applies for European Championship qualification but includes all major tournaments for ranking purposes..

We will be 3rd seeds at best for 2012 as even if we qualify for 2010 the draw for the 2012 qualifiers will be made before the 2010 finals.

[irishultra]

Scotland were second seeds for world cup draw, am I right?

[eekers]

Scotland were second seeds for world cup draw, am I right?

yep that was based on fifa rankings

[geysir]

I think I'll wait until I see the first table before coming to grips with it.
It looks like they have gone all FIFA with their ranking system but only using competitive games.
Or is there anybody who wants to hazard an educated guess where we are now.
Looks like they are using Lira for points :D

[pineapple stu]

The first table's at the bottom of the link. We're 25th.

[geysir]

Thanks.

Then at least we can't drop down much during the Euro finals.
I see only Austria below us

[gspain]

The first table isn't much use. It is calculated as if the draw was today.

It has a 20% weighting for 2004 and 40% each for 2006 and 2008.

The next draw is in approx December 2009 for the 2012 qualifiers. 2004 will be discarded. 2006 will drop to 20%, 2008 will stay at 40% and 2010 qualifiers only will count for 40%.

So our current position in reality is unknown unless somebody has done a table with a 20% weighting for 2006 and a 40% weighting for 2008.

I can't find such a table anywhere.

[geysir]

As you said yourself we haven't won a game against a decent team in 7 years,
we don't know if we have a future yet.

We are part of the 21 steps program now.
It's one game at a time.

[Greenforever]

The first table isn't much use. It is calculated as if the draw was today.

It has a 20% weighting for 2004 and 40% each for 2006 and 2008.

The next draw is in approx December 2009 for the 2012 qualifiers. 2004 will be discarded. 2006 will drop to 20%, 2008 will stay at 40% and 2010 qualifiers only will count for 40%.

So our current position in reality is unknown unless somebody has done a table with a 20% weighting for 2006 and a 40% weighting for 2008.

I can't find such a table anywhere.


17 points from 10 games in 2006 qualifiers 1.7 X .2 = .34

17 points from 12 games in 2008 qualifiers 1.4 x .4 = .56

Current total = .9

To be 1st seeds is about 2.2 and 2nd seeds about 2 under the old system so very roughly we are looking at

Tl points in 2010 qualifiers Average X.4 Co Efficent
27 2.7 1.08 1.98
22 2.2 0.88 1.78


A first seeding is impossible

A second seeding is almost impossible

A third seeding could be a minor miracle

Off course the above assumptions could be way off the mark

One interesting thing, if they are counting the final stages, a team who plays 3 matches and only gets 3 points could see their coefficent badly affected unless they are weighting the finals differently.

[eekers]

The first table isn't much use. It is calculated as if the draw was today.

It has a 20% weighting for 2004 and 40% each for 2006 and 2008.

The next draw is in approx December 2009 for the 2012 qualifiers. 2004 will be discarded. 2006 will drop to 20%, 2008 will stay at 40% and 2010 qualifiers only will count for 40%.

So our current position in reality is unknown unless somebody has done a table with a 20% weighting for 2006 and a 40% weighting for 2008.

I can't find such a table anywhere.

http://lucrurineinteresante.blogspot.com/2008/05/euro-2012-qualifying-draw-coefficients.html

1 Italy 36876
2 Germany 35769
3 Czech Republic 34607
4 France 34218
5 Croatia 33989
6 Spain 33922
7 Romania 33724
8 Netherlands 33672
9 Greece 33557
---------------------------
10 Portugal 32789
11 Sweden 32681
12 England 32430
13 Turkey 30367
14 Russia 30182
15 Switzerland 29651
16 Bulgaria 29196
17 Israel 29085
18 Norway 28599
---------------------------
19 Scotland 27951
20 Serbia 27884
21 Denmark 27669
22 Finland 26045
23 Ireland 25312
24 Slovakia 25312
25 Austria 25152
26 Northern Ireland 24062
27 Belgium 22608
---------------------------
28 Bosnia-Herzegovina 22440
29 Lithuania 22151
30 Hungary 21012
31 Wales 20890
32 Latvia 20737
33 Belarus 20357
34 Macedonia 20098
35 Slovenia 19868
36 Albania 19432
---------------------------
37 Cyprus 18718
38 Estonia 18154
39 Georgia 18099
40 Moldova 17956
41 Armenia 16473
42 Liechtenstein 15334
43 Iceland 15090
44 Kazakhstan 14483
45 Azerbaijan 12834
---------------------------
46 Malta 12728
47 Luxembourg 10486
48 Andorra 9861
49 Faroe Islands 8867
50 San Marino 7839
51 Montenegro 0

[Greenforever]

it's about as complicated as it gets, still we might claw our way up to a 2nd seed for the 2012 euros

[gspain]

Thanks really appreciate that.

Better than I thought - 3rd seed looks safe enough.

[Edgar]

http://lucrurineinteresante.blogspot.com/2008/05/euro-2012-qualifying-draw-coefficients.html


Thanks eekers! ;)


One interesting thing, if they are counting the final stages, a team who plays 3 matches and only gets 3 points could see their coefficent badly affected unless they are weighting the finals differently.

No EURO 2008 team will fall below you, I'm afraid. But you can get closer and with a good WCQ 2010 campaign, you can hope to reach the second pot.

See here -> link (http://lucrurineinteresante.blogspot.com/2008/06/euro-2012-qualifying-draw-coefficients.html).

[del_carroll]

jeez, we've not done too badly...if i was portugal i'd be somewhat cross...behind

3 Czech Republic 34607
4 France 34218
5 Croatia 33989
6 Spain 33922
7 Romania 33724
8 Netherlands 33672
9 Greece 33557

finalists last time, 4th place at the world cup etc, best team in europe at the moment on current form

[irishultra]

Portugal were **** in qualifying for the Euros. Have you ever seen some of their results? I don't know how they end up qualifying because they always seem to be held at home.

[Scooby Doo]

god surprised at romania's position.
looks like this system will make friendly games even more meaningless. :confused:

[Edgar]

god surprised at romania's position.


Romania finished 2 points behind the Czech Republic in the 2006 WC qualifiers - 25 points in 12 games, then topped their group in the EURO 2008 qualifiers.

As EURO 2004 results are dropped, Romania are in the same situation as Greece: didn't make it to Germany 2006, then won their EURO 2008 preliminary group.

[irishultra]

Terribly boring team though. It wasn't what I was expecting.

[Blanchflower]

http://www.uefa.com/uefa/keytopics/kind=64/newsid=698237.html?cid=rssfeed&att=index

Basically uefa are changing the system for working out the seeds to the european championship (fifa are still usign fifa ranking for world cups). The new system takes in the result from the last 3 qualfying campaigns and the last 2 final tournaments (previously they only used the qualifying and not the finals!). So for euro 2012 they'll take into account wc2006(qualifying and tournament), euro2008(qualifying and tournament) and wc2010 (qualifying). full pdf here (http://www.uefa.com/MultimediaFiles/Download/uefa/KeyTopics/69/80/93/698093_DOWNLOAD.pdf)

not sure whether to put this thread in world football or no?
Will this not disadvantage some teams who succeed in qualifying?

If a team qualifies, but then loses its group matches in the finals, will this not reduce its coefficient. And a team in the same qualifying group that doesn't qualify could therefore end up with a higher coefficient.

[paul_oshea]

Will this not disadvantage some teams who succeed in qualifying?

If a team qualifies, but then loses its group matches in the finals, will this not reduce its coefficient. And a team in the same qualifying group that doesn't qualify could therefore end up with a higher coefficient.

Thats exactly what I was thinking it disadvantages those that are just scraping qualification but aren't good enough to compete in finals and yet benefits those not good enough to qualify but are there or there abouts.

[Blanchflower]

Thats exactly what I was thinking it disadvantages those that are just scraping qualification but aren't good enough to compete in finals and yet benefits those not good enough to qualify but are there or there abouts.
Yeah - so not a very good system, really!

[HarpoJoyce]

Will this not disadvantage some teams who succeed in qualifying?

If a team qualifies, but then loses its group matches in the finals, will this not reduce its coefficient. And a team in the same qualifying group that doesn't qualify could therefore end up with a higher coefficient.


Thats exactly what I was thinking it disadvantages those that are just scraping qualification but aren't good enough to compete in finals and yet benefits those not good enough to qualify but are there or there abouts.


Yeah - so not a very good system, really!


Guys, you got to read the document first.

There are bonus points for Play-off, and each stage of Finals Tournament.
There is further consideration for countries which host tournaments (and so do not compete in the Qualifying stage). Their previous qualifying performance is repeated for their own tournament.
There is weighting for more recent tournaments so that form is better reflected.

I accept that weighting and bonus points may not be awarded correctly, but there are attempts to reflect the different stages of the tournament.

[Edgar]

You're right about the bonus points.
However, losing games at the final tournament will affect your coefficient. For instance, Switzerland - 15th place before the EURO, dropped to 16 after the first round of matches -> link (http://lucrurineinteresante.blogspot.com/2008/06/euro-2012-qualifying-draw-coefficients_11.html). After losing their second match, they dropped to 17th.

[geysir]

You're right about the bonus points.
However, losing games at the final tournament will affect your coefficient. For instance, Switzerland - 15th place before the EURO, dropped to 16 after the first round of matches -> link (http://lucrurineinteresante.blogspot.com/2008/06/euro-2012-qualifying-draw-coefficients_11.html). After losing their second match, they dropped to 17th.
Maybe I am missing a few screws today but where is Poland in this list
link (http://lucrurineinteresante.blogspot.com/2008/06/euro-2012-qualifying-draw-coefficients_11.html)

I think a team in the Euro Finals would need at least a win or 2 draws not to lose ground in the ranking table.

[Edgar]

Poland and Ukraine won't be in the "qualifying draw" - being the hosts.

[HarpoJoyce]

I think it's to people's credit that they legitamately query a new measurement system, but anything is better than that dubious Racial Profiling Coca Cola list of nations that is presented by FIFA. Unfortunately, this list appears to be embraced by media outlets, among others.

The full ranking won't be in place 'til after the current 2008 Tournament. So it is still premature to be counting the ranking list at the moment.

I think that if a nation underperforms at a Finals Tournament, it needs to be reflected. A mid-ranked team will gain some ranking placing through qualifying, if it wants to stay there it needs to perform. If it doesn't it moves backwards, how far back? is a fair question.

But is the last few posts asking about a mid-ranked team not doing the business at a major tournament? It amuses me when new measurement systems are introduced, how it affects the middle of the table teams seems to be an initial concern. But there should be fairness through the ranking list.

There are thresholds in other places where if you cross it you need to raise your own pace to standstill. Promotion to an upper division included. I don't accept the win and two draws example, as this is qualifying standard.

The co-efficient is a measurement over three tournaments, and it affects seeding. However, there is also actual performance in whatever tournament your team is playing in at that time. I think supporters should grab onto whichever one is doing better.

[Edgar]

The full ranking won't be in place 'til after the current 2008 Tournament. So it is still premature to be counting the ranking list at the moment.

And after the South Africa 2010 qualifiers. Fair enough, but it gives us a rough idea of where a team stands.

[geysir]

Poland and Ukraine won't be in the "qualifying draw" - being the hosts.
That explains it.
So I was missing a screw of sorts :D

[Edgar]

Update after the semifinals -> link (http://lucrurineinteresante.blogspot.com/2008/06/euro-2012-qualifying-draw-coefficients_27.html).

[EalingGreen]

but anything is better than that dubious Racial Profiling Coca Cola list of nations that is presented by FIFA.

Agree that FIFA's Rankings are deficient and misleading in a number of ways. A chief one is the relatively favourable weighting they give to the other Confederations compared to Europe (UEFA).

However, one way of partly mitigating this is just to take the UEFA Confederation separately:
http://www.fifa.com/worldfootball/ranking/lastranking/gender=m/fullranking.html#confederation=27275&rank=170

Stripped of overrated teams such as Mexico, Cameroon, Ghana, Colombia and USA etc, this gives a better picture of how the European teams are currently doing (imo)

[Gather round]

Official FIFA ranking:


3 1 Italy 1424 0 28
4 2 Spain 1303 0 -20
5 3 Germany 1274 0 10
6 4 Czech Republic 1246 0 2
7 5 France 1143 0 -62
8 6 Greece 1133 0 -63
9 7 England 1123 2 25
10 8 Netherlands 1111 0 -12
11 9 Portugal 1094 -2 -37
12 10 Romania 1069 0 -13
15 11 Croatia 1017 -2 -27
17 12 Scotland 978 -2 -29
18 13 Bulgaria 949 0 1
20 14 Turkey 877 5 21
22 15 Israel 872 -2 -33
24 16 Russia 846 1 -10
27 17 Norway 814 2 -22
28 18 Poland 805 -1 -43
30 19 Sweden 799 -7 -63
31 20 Ukraine 791 1 17
32 21 Northern Ireland 752 2 48
33 22 Denmark 750 0 -11
36 23 Finland 697 -2 -7
39 24 Serbia 694 -8 -119
42 25 Republic of Ireland 674 -1 33
44 26 Switzerland 644 4 27
49 27 Belgium 600 -3 -27
51 28 Moldova 583 -13 -87
52 29 Hungary 580 5 34
53 30 Wales 578 -1 -19
56 31 FYR Macedonia 544 0 -7
57 32 Belarus 540 3 7
62 33 Lithuania 523 -13 -93
64 34 Cyprus 503 -6 -39
66 35 Slovakia 494 0 -5
67 36 Bosnia-Herzegovina 487 -5 -35
70 37 Latvia 462 5 34
76 38 Slovenia 410 -2 -20
78 39 Armenia 392 2 0
80 40 Georgia 383 1 -6
82 41 Albania 375 -6 -46
85 42 Iceland 367 0 -10
92 43 Austria 341 9 13
121 44 Estonia 239 -6 -28
125 45 Kazakhstan 235 -3 -14
131 46 Liechtenstein 214 -1 -19
133 47 Azerbaijan 203 4 4
134 48 Malta 202 1 0
142 49 Montenegro 180 8 39
153 50 Luxembourg 136 4 11
184 51 Andorra 49 -3 -1
193 52 Faroe Islands 14 1 0
199 53 San Marino 0 1 0

Alternative ranking based on points gained (for the non qualifiers), and performance in the Finals for the top 16.

Take your pick...


1, ?
2, ?
3, Russia SF 6
3, Turkey SF 6
5, Croatia QF 9
5, Netherlands QF 9
7, Portugal QF 6
8, Italy QF 4
9, Sweden GS 3
9, Czechia GS 3
9, Switzerland GS 3
12, Romania GS 2
13, Austria GS 1
13, Poland GS 1
13, France GS 1
16, Greece GS 0

17, Bulgaria 12 7 4 1 25
18, Scotland 12 8 0 4 24
19, England 12 7 2 3 23
19, Israel 12 7 2 3 23
19, Norway 12 7 2 3 23
22, Finland 12 5 6 1 21
23, N Ireland 12 6 2 4 20
23, Denmark 12 6 2 4 20
25, Serbia 12 4 6 2 18
26, Ukraine 12 5 2 5 17
26, R Ireland 12 4 5 3 17
28, Slovakia 12 5 1 6 16
28, Lithuania 12 5 1 6 16
30, Wales 12 4 3 5 15
31, Cyprus 12 4 2 6 14
31, Macedonia 12 4 2 6 14
33, Bosnia 12 4 1 7 13
33, Belarus 12 4 1 7 13
35, Moldova 12 3 3 6 12
35, Hungary 12 4 0 8 12
35, Latvia 12 4 0 8 12
35, Belgium 12 3 3 6 12
39, Albania 12 2 5 5 11
39, Slovenia 12 3 2 711
41, Georgia 12 3 1 8 10
42, Armenia 12 2 3 7 9
43, Kazakhstan 12 2 2 8 8
43, Iceland 12 2 2 8 8
45, Liechtenstein 12 2 1 9 7
45, Estonia 12 2 1 9 7
47, Azerbaijan 12 1 2 9 5
47, Malta 12 1 2 9 5
49, Luxembourg 12 1 0 11 3
50, Faroe Islands 12 0 0 12 0
50, San Marino 12 0 0 12 0
50, Andorra 12 0 0 12 0
53, Montenegro DNP 0