Next Ireland Manager: Betfair Watch

[kriscommons]

As many of you are in work during the day and are no doubt in suspense about what is happening on this crazy market I will endevour to keep you updated with significant market moves on an on-going basis.

Mod: this is not SPAM, there are lots of people on other threads asking about odds so I thought this would be a good place to keep all betting related chat.

It is moving minute by minute today...and over €1.1M ghas now been matched up in bets.

LATEST MOVES/ODDS AS OF 12.30 Monday

TV 3.85: weak
GHou 4.0: was 2.1 at noon, but drifted again
GG 4.7: constant support
KDal 11* has been backed from massive prices...
Glen H 13.5: drifted
LB 15.5: drifted

Others 34+

[colster]

As many of you are in work during the day and are no doubt in suspense about what is happening on this crazy market I will endevour to keep you updated with significant market moves on an on-going basis.

Mod: this is not SPAM, there are lots of people on other threads asking about odds so I thought this would be a good place to keep all betting related chat.

It is moving minute by minute today...and over €1.1M ghas now been matched up in bets.

LATEST MOVES/ODDS AS OF 12.30 Monday

TV 3.85: weak
GHou 4.0: was 2.1 at noon, but drifted again
GG 4.7: constant support
KDal 11* has been backed from massive prices...
Glen H 13.5: drifted
LB 15.5: drifted

Others 34+

Who's GG?

[kriscommons]

Sorry should be JG!

[shakermaker1982]

George Graham?

[Stuttgart88]

Crikey, I thought George Graham had made a late move!

[Kingdom]

I got an email about half an hour ago from a friend who says a lot about football but knows very little. Urged us to back Dalglish @ 14's. Why?
Cos Houllier has turned us down. The whole situation is a bloody joke. Imagine delaying interviews because one of the interviewers is doing a coaching course. Bunch of fcuking clowns.

[Deckydee]

I got an email about half an hour ago from a friend who says a lot about football but knows very little. Urged us to back Dalglish @ 14's. Why?
Cos Houllier has turned us down. The whole situation is a bloody joke. Imagine delaying interviews because one of the interviewers is doing a coaching course. Bunch of fcuking clowns.

Who else but the FAI!

[kriscommons]

QUICK UPDATE

GH 3.5: several 4 figure bets struck since last update
TV 3.7
JG 5.3
KDAL 13
GHod 15
LB 15

Others 34+

[OwlsFan]

People are so gullible about Betfair. They will announce through the press that someone has put "30k" on Joe Bloggs and immediately their business goes up tenfold by the lemmings following suit.

These Betfair releases must have made them a fortune for them.

p.s. Not sure if the panel has interviewed Joe Bloggs in case anyone goes out and puts a few Euro on him.

[kriscommons]

Houllier on the mover again, big sums backing him at 2.7 now...

[kriscommons]

These Betfair releases must have made them a fortune for them.

Betfair is a betting exchange...it is punter v punter not like a bookmaker and all the movements on it are free for all to see.

The bookmakers on the street are the ones cleaning up imo, not the exchanges.

[gustavo]

Moving to the Betting forum

[kriscommons]

GH 2.6
TV 4.3
JG 6

More money for Houllier....they must be busy working out that compo deal!

[frankbrett]

Gerard Houllier is the only loser for me in this market.
Ironically, I'd prefer to see him get the job.

Backed Venables to cushion the blow in case he did get it.

[Bluebeard]

People are so gullible about Betfair. They will announce through the press that someone has put "30k" on Joe Bloggs and immediately their business goes up tenfold by the lemmings following suit.

These Betfair releases must have made them a fortune for them.

p.s. Not sure if the panel has interviewed Joe Bloggs in case anyone goes out and puts a few Euro on him.

I've £75 on Joe Bloggs to be the next Sunderland manager so I really hope that he doesn't get the Ireland gig.

A friend of a plasterer who used to work for a guy who's aunt my cousin's hairdresser works for say that they have it on very good authority that Joe Bloggs and John Delaney were seen looking at tractors together at the Spring Show last year. That £75 is starting to look like a bad investment...

[Bondvillain]

Sorry, Joe Bloggs was spotted having a slash outside Break for the Border with the Scottish F.A. on Saturday night. There's your Sunderland money gone.

[frankbrett]

you can back Don Givens at around 209/1 I think.
Can the great man ratify himself?

[kriscommons]

245Pm update:

GH 2.3 : Susutained money last 10 mins
TV 5.1 : Weak
JG 7.2: Weak
KDal 8.2: coming in for support in waves
Hoddle 18: Weak
Brady 18: Weak

Others 34+

[DaveyCakes]

These Betfair releases must have made them a fortune for them.

Betfair is a betting exchange...it is punter v punter not like a bookmaker and all the movements on it are free for all to see.

The bookmakers on the street are the ones cleaning up imo, not the exchanges.


Of course the exchanges clean up, they make a profit from every single euro that is bet and laid. And do you seriously think that all the money being laid on betfair is made up of fivers and tenners from Joe Bloggs?

[kriscommons]

u don't kow what u are talking about. Betfair will make a pittance on this market compared to the highstreet bookies. They are low margin and the nature of exchanges mean they atract traders 9v low margin on their biz)

Anyway

GH 9-10 big move again past 10 mins
TV 9-2
JG 8-1
KDal 9-1
Others 16-1+

[kriscommons]

Final Update before I head home:

GH 2.7
TV 4.2
JG 7.2
KDal 10.5
LB 16.5

Others 34+

[neville neville]

seems to be money on brady

in to 9s

[kriscommons]

8.20PM UPDATE

GH: 3.0 a little weak this evenin following afternoon support
TV: 4.0: solid at around this level
LB: 9.4 money from 17 this afternoon
JG: 9.6 weak
KD: 11 solid around this level but not a whole lot trying to back him
G HDL: weak
SA: 28 small support from 70-ish

Others: 50+

[citizenerased]

will ya start this up again kris,,have to access to betting sites at work!!

[Carrigaline]

I'd love to know where this consistant money on Giles is coming from.

[citizenerased]

my mate workd in paddy power as a sports trader...he said so far they have taken over 500,000 on the irish manager...and the only candidate they will lose on is Johnny Giles...Considering Johnny said on newstalk this morning that he ruled himself completely out..theyll make a killing..

[Carrigaline]

Of course they'll make a killing.

How many candidates were backed at sub-evens prices on pp.com?

Jewell
Houllier
Venables
Deschamps
Brady
O' Leary

Probably another two or three I've forgotten.

[kriscommons]

Apologies for the lack of an update today - I had to go to London with work. 6.30AM flights are not recommended, shattered now...

Anyway, I have been talking to my men in the betting industry about today's moves and thought i'd post them on here. Again, I have no interest in who gets it, I'll win anyway as I laid Paul Jewell.

Updated Betfair betting as of 22.20 Tuesday (and after the farcical scenes at Abottstown)

G HOU: 2.8 : The situation with Gerry is one around his contract I believe. They want him, he is the preferred choice of the panel and he is open to taking the job - contrary to that carp that Sky Sports issued on Sunday. You'll notice how quiet it all went on Monday. I think the main aim of tonight was to buy the amigos a few weeks more to try to work around the contractual issues. I still think they will but I think Houllier could well trade at a bigger price that 2.8 en route to the job.

L BRADY: 4.1 What a gamble we had on Chippy today. Having been popular at the top of the betting for weeks, Brady was usurped by his cohort Giles over bthe weekend and the punters took that as a sign that he was basically a Non Runner. He drifted to 25-1 before a big move for him today saw his odds contract to 3.5 at one point. Ends the evening at 4.1 and close on Houllier's tale. Rumoured to have ruled himself out or ''done a houllier'' but no signs that punters have lost faith.

Venables: 7.0 : Having drifted to 14 today the race looked all over for the perma tanned one. However, he has been the main beneficiary of this evening's fiasco - as it might be a sign that a fall back option will be required. Like him or loath him, we could do worse I'ms sure and that's why he is on the move. An unlikley winner now at this stage i'd imagine.

K DAL: 9.6 Two weeks ago he was all the rage. A week later he was trading at 75 on Betfair. Rumours circulated the capital today that Dalglish was going to be offered the gig. Yah I know...another rumour. Still think he's a second string runner in this race but there were decent amounts for hom today.

THE REST
Hoddle 16 - weak
Giles - 25 - finally some reality
Tigana - 34 - could this lad have a squeak? Sneaky money for him today at fancy prices. I had him down as a total bookies bluff candidiate. Not so sure now.
Big Sam - 40 - Perhaps in the venners camp in so far as the delay in naming the boss might make him a live runner. Surely hhe has bigger fish to fry though?

Hope this is useful - be lucky!

[Bluebeard]

Apologies for the lack of an update today - I had to go to London with work. 6.30AM flights are not recommended, shattered now...

Anyway, I have been talking to my men in the betting industry about today's moves and thought i'd post them on here. Again, I have no interest in who gets it, I'll win anyway as I laid Paul Jewell.

Updated Betfair betting as of 22.20 Tuesday (and after the farcical scenes at Abottstown)

G HOU: 2.8 : The situation with Gerry is one around his contract I believe. They want him, he is the preferred choice of the panel and he is open to taking the job - contrary to that carp that Sky Sports issued on Sunday. You'll notice how quiet it all went on Monday. I think the main aim of tonight was to buy the amigos a few weeks more to try to work around the contractual issues. I still think they will but I think Houllier could well trade at a bigger price that 2.8 en route to the job.

L BRADY: 4.1 What a gamble we had on Chippy today. Having been popular at the top of the betting for weeks, Brady was usurped by his cohort Giles over bthe weekend and the punters took that as a sign that he was basically a Non Runner. He drifted to 25-1 before a big move for him today saw his odds contract to 3.5 at one point. Ends the evening at 4.1 and close on Houllier's tale. Rumoured to have ruled himself out or ''done a houllier'' but no signs that punters have lost faith.

Venables: 7.0 : Having drifted to 14 today the race looked all over for the perma tanned one. However, he has been the main beneficiary of this evening's fiasco - as it might be a sign that a fall back option will be required. Like him or loath him, we could do worse I'ms sure and that's why he is on the move. An unlikley winner now at this stage i'd imagine.

K DAL: 9.6 Two weeks ago he was all the rage. A week later he was trading at 75 on Betfair. Rumours circulated the capital today that Dalglish was going to be offered the gig. Yah I know...another rumour. Still think he's a second string runner in this race but there were decent amounts for hom today.

THE REST
Hoddle 16 - weak
Giles - 25 - finally some reality
Tigana - 34 - could this lad have a squeak? Sneaky money for him today at fancy prices. I had him down as a total bookies bluff candidiate. Not so sure now.
Big Sam - 40 - Perhaps in the venners camp in so far as the delay in naming the boss might make him a live runner. Surely hhe has bigger fish to fry though?

Hope this is useful - be lucky!

I can't see that working out - I mean he's married and has a huge footballing commitment.

[The Bit O'Red]

Latest odds please lads?

[frankbrett]

I can't see that working out - I mean he's married and has a huge footballing commitment.


Kris had it easy. I have laid Venables, Brady, Houllier and Giles.

[Carrigaline]

I have a huge wodge of useless green on Paul Jewell after I traded him several months ago :(

Currently have fairly big green on Venables (really thought the job was in the bag for him), will also do very well if Hoddle, Sanchez or Dalglish get the gig. Have a few cent of red or green with the rest.

[The Bit O'Red]

Update on current trading pretty please.

[Bluebeard]

Kris had it easy. I have laid Venables, Brady, Houllier and Giles.

I now have this image of the four of them standing around an oldies signles night, chatting together , going to the loo together to do their make-up, coyly batting their eye-lashes-:eek::eek::eek:

BRING STAN BACK NOW TO END THIS HORROR

[kriscommons]

UPDATE AS OF 4.45PM

GH: 2.5 well backed again today
LB: 6.6 weak today
TV: 6.6 well backed agaiun today
K Dal: 11 v weak
Tigana is the springer in the market: was backed at 8.9 today but now 14 again. Rumour of a Cork based gamble on him. Dont ask why Cork!?
Others all very weak now I think it's probably between the these

8.9 should be 8.0

[kriscommons]

Lots of dough for Terry now. Nearly a new fav! Well, i say 'new' very loosely. He's been fav on 5 occasions already in the betting!!

[eirebhoy]

Money placed since lunchtime

Venables - 40k
Houllier - €34k
Tigana - €5k
Brady - €4k
Hoddle - €3k
Dalglish - €2k

[Bluebeard]

Money placed since lunchtime

Venables - 40k
Houllier - €34k
Tigana - €5k
Brady - €4k
Hoddle - €3k
Dalglish - €2k

Jesus, eireboy, you must be loaded. Seeing the amount of money you put on Dalglish, the old saying about a fool and his money is clearly true...

[Unreal Madrid]

Kris had it easy. I have laid Venables, Brady, Houllier and Giles.

Wow, your some stud :p

[kriscommons]

Morning All

Market update at 11AM

TV: 3.1 Big gamble on him lst night after FFF released that statement
GH: 3.5 Drifted for the same reason as above. However, it is always interesting that wheneve he drifts he is then backed right back into near favouritism. He mst surely be their NO1 candidate?
LB: 8.0: Drifted to 14 last night but has been taken back into 8 today. Still, not a lot of money moving his price.
KD: 13.5: Weak really

Others

Billy Davies backed into 25
Phillipe Troussier nibbled at massive odds
Few quid for Giles again but nothing significant.

[kriscommons]

Quick update:

Several grand just traded on El Tel forcing his odds down to 2.4. GH gone the other way, 4.0 from 3.0 now.

Could this be the final move in a market that has now come full circle....?

[The Bit O'Red]

Nice one Kris, keep the updates coming please.

That 10/1 that PaddyPower were offering on Venables on Monday is starting to look nice now!

[Jerry The Saint]

Quick update:

Several grand just traded on El Tel forcing his odds down to 2.4. GH gone the other way, 4.0 from 3.0 now.

Could this be the final move in a market that has now come full circle....?


I think this proves that Daniel McDonnell is USELESS at manipulating the betting market :D

[dublinred]

Nice one Kris, keep the updates coming please.

That 10/1 that PaddyPower were offering on Venables on Monday is starting to look nice now!

Can't see Venables getting the job at this stage, big swing on John Sheridan this afternoon wouldn't be a bad choice , still hard to beleive the calibre of candidates being interviewed given the salary being offered , the Croatian guy who knocked out England is on 100k a year.

[kriscommons]

UPDATE AT 4.30ish

TV: 3.0
GH 5.0
KD: 7.0
LB: 8.4
JTiG: 18
Hoddle, Sam & Davies : 24


Nothing else of major note today chaps. I see BBC are reporting that Billy Davies said he is to be interviewed ''early next month''. FFS - lets hope that's inaccurate eh.if it is accurate I think you can safely lay TV at 3 as he will surely go bigger at some stage.

[The Bit O'Red]

this thread fairly died a death. No updates?

[Raheny Red]

this thread fairly died a death.

Mainly due to the fact that this selection process has become a circus the past few weeks.