Who will form the Government? [Archive]

Poor Student

25/05/2007, 3:28 PM

I'm going with FF + Greens too, but far from certain. I feel as long as a possibility exists that isn't SF they'll go for it, but I think they will be a reluctance against Labour too due to the ministerial positions they'd have to give up. If the PDs can avoid total meltdown and make 4/5 then throw in a few independents and you could see the status quo returned more or less. Gormley v McDowell could play a big part.

Mr A

25/05/2007, 3:30 PM

I'm guessing FF with the remaining PD's, or if they don't make it then a few independents will do. Labour would cost them too many cabinet positions and they don't really need them.

John83

25/05/2007, 3:37 PM

Poor Student

25/05/2007, 3:39 PM

Yeah, FF/Labour is looking unlikely with FF doing well enough not to need nearly that many seats from a partner. I'm hoping that the PDs have been beaten up by the electorate hard enough to be useless to FF, leaving the Greens the best option.

I think the PDs have been given a black eye but fall short of receiving a knockout blow. Liz O'Donnell is conceding.

Dodge

25/05/2007, 4:46 PM

I think the PDs have been given a black eye but fall short of receiving a knockout blow. Liz O'Donnell is conceding.

Gormley v McDowell is going down to the wire. I don't think I'd stop laughing for a week if McDowell lost his seat, again

pete

25/05/2007, 5:17 PM

No use having a poll at this stage until the results come in. A vote now could be invalid in a few hours...

Poor Student

26/05/2007, 12:45 AM

So where are we heading? FF are looking like 78-80 now I think. Greens look like the ideal number to help them bridge the gap although FF/PD coalition in minority government with FF gene pool independents could also work like in 1997. The only other possibility I can see is FF minority with independents.

Dodge

26/05/2007, 12:46 AM

FF looking to get 78 tops

Greens on RTE recently far from dismissive of the idea of a coalition with FF

Poor Student

26/05/2007, 12:49 AM

FF looking to get 78 tops

Greens on RTE recently far from dismissive of the idea of a coalition with FF

Dermot Ahern was on RTE radio around 7:30 talking up FF's environmental record and described himself as an environmentalist and said they were far from incompatible. The Green chairman came on after and said it would take more than "wishy-washy" talk to bridge the gap between them.:p

pete

26/05/2007, 1:01 AM

If the numbers add up (including independent FF) i have no doubt Greens & FF will do business.

pete

26/05/2007, 9:43 AM

Looking at the projected numbers the rainbow was only just off making the numbers which makes the bookies paying out on Bertie a bit premature...

FF 78
FG 51
Labour 20-21
Greens 6
SF 3-4
PD 2
Ind 5

FF + Green = 84

FG + Labour + Green = 78
Lowry, Gregory & McGrath would do business leaving them on 81.

Rainbow to add SF stripe? :eek:

Poor Student

26/05/2007, 11:15 AM

Rainbow + SF + independents couldn't be on the cards. Too many agendas, too unstable.

If the Greens get into government it'll be a real test of their mettle. Going by their policies they should only settle for the Environment, Transport or Health portfolios. If they don't get at least one of those it'll be a very weak deal they'll have settled for. I wonder what would happen to cohabitation? Greens also on an anti corporate donations agenda.

pete

26/05/2007, 11:23 AM

Greens also on an anti corporate donations agenda.

Stupid for Greens to suggest that would be a deal breaker already. Shows how they still have a lot to learn. FF banned Corporate donations is unthinkable. What would they do with those Galway races tents then?

FF can still add those couple of PDs plus independents so they don't need the Greens.

FG+Lab+Green+PD+Independent? The multi technicolour dream rainbow...? :D:p

Poor Student

26/05/2007, 11:28 AM

Stupid for Greens to suggest that would be a deal breaker already. Shows how they still have a lot to learn. FF banned Corporate donations is unthinkable. What would they do with those Galway races tents then?

FF can still add those couple of PDs plus independents so they don't need the Greens.

FG+Lab+Green+PD+Independent? The multi technicolour dream rainbow...? :D:p

I haven't seen TV today but from what I gather it's definitely 77 FF and 5 independents? That means they need 4 indepdents to bridge the gap. I know Flynn and Healy-Rae could be gotten onside but what about the others, Lowry in particular? Even at that it's hard to keep 4 onside with nowhere else to do a deal with. You're also at the mercy of the government collapsing on a by election. At least if FF lose one or two seats over the term when they have the Greens they can add in those independents.

pete

26/05/2007, 11:47 AM

I think its predicted to be 78 + 6 Greens.

There are few sudo-FFers to pick from if they come up one short. They could always add the 2 PDs but that would probably kill the PD party...

Pat Rabbite being very cagey on RTE. He was asked straight Yes or No question & he said he'd have to go back to talk to the party.

I don't think FF would go with Labour as they would have to give up too many Minister mercs.

osarusan

26/05/2007, 12:32 PM

how many seats needed for a majority? (pardon my ignorance but i've been away a while)

micls

26/05/2007, 12:32 PM

how many seats needed for a majority?

83 i think

Dodge

26/05/2007, 1:12 PM

84 for a majority

166 in total

Sheridan

26/05/2007, 1:33 PM

If the Greens prop up FF, it's going to be the ultimate Pyrrhic victory. At the moment they pick up tons of transfers because they're seen as an inoffensive candidate for a protest vote or a possible component of a centre-left coalition. They're not going to exert enough influence on the next government to change those perceptions. I certainly wouldn't countenance giving them a preference as part of an outgoing FF administration, and I can't imagine many other non-FF voters would.

crc

26/05/2007, 1:52 PM

84 for a majority
166 in total
No, its 83. The Ceann Comhairle doesn't vote except in a tie.

Bald Student

26/05/2007, 2:33 PM

No, its 83. The Ceann Comhairle doesn't vote except in a tie.True but 84 is better because you can vote in a Ceann Comhairle from your party. If you've 83 you need to convince someone from the other side to take the job.

Lionel Ritchie

27/05/2007, 8:29 AM

According to the news this morning FFs prefered option is to put a deal together with PDs and independents. But it's hit a snag already.

Fragrant Beverly Cooper Flynns chickens are on their way up the drive in the form of a bankruptcy order being sought by RTE against her (Irish Mail On Sunday). If RTE succeed her stay in the 30th Dail will be shorter than if she'd paid into the the public gallery.

Couldn't happen to a nicer, genuine, more sincere person ...except her Da maybe.

pete

27/05/2007, 11:06 AM

Fragrant Beverly Cooper Flynns chickens are on their way up the drive in the form of a bankruptcy order being sought by RTE against her (Irish Mail On Sunday). If RTE succeed her stay in the 30th Dail will be shorter than if she'd paid into the the public gallery.

Can you not serve in the Dail if bankrupt? Last I heard was 2m? She lost that case it think...?

Lionel Ritchie

27/05/2007, 11:15 AM

Can you not serve in the Dail if bankrupt? Last I heard was 2m? She lost that case it think...?

I'm virtually certain a bankrupt cannot sit in Dail Eireann. I'm not sure whether she'd have to relinquish her seat but she'd have no vote and is therefore of no use to an administration relying on her support.

Poor Student

27/05/2007, 12:00 PM

With regards to the independents:

Healy-Rae can and has been brought into support of the government before and he has FF history. Could Fine Gael buy him over with a super-highway to Killarney or something?

Tony Gregory did it in 1982, it might require another 'Gregory deal' but with him sharing the same constituency as the Taoiseach that may not be too problematic. I assume FG could buy him over just as easily.

I don't know much about Finian McGrath, what's his ticket?

Beverly Flynn has as good said she'd do a deal with either side. There's problems with her outlined in the post above.

Lowry is FG gene pool but he's not the most principled chap. Could FF buy him too if needed or would his roots not let him do that?

Enda Kenny can only be Taoiseach if he takes the PDs or SF into the rainbow as well as winning over at least one independent. But unless Bertie or Enda have one or two to spare at least then the government could be brought down by a by-election.

pete

27/05/2007, 12:13 PM

Enda Kenny can only be Taoiseach if he takes the PDs or SF into the rainbow as well as winning over at least one independent. But unless Bertie or Enda have one or two to spare at least then the government could be brought down by a by-election.

For Enda Kenny to be Taoiseach he would need to convince the PDs and Greens that better to go with him than more stable FF government.

FG+Labour+Green = 77
+ PDs = 79

Needs all 5 Independents. I think Lowry (tell him he is a nice man), McGrath (build him a hospital) & even Healy-Rae (South Kerry Turnpike) could be bought off. Flynn may not even be a TD for much longer & if a by-election run FG could actually win that as they 53% of the vote in Mayo. Tony Gregory could be bought off easily too.

Be very surprised if Greens or PDs turned down FF for that sort of rainbow.

If FF go with the PDs they need 4 Independents which could be difficult especially as Bertie is talking so much about stability.

Poor Student

27/05/2007, 12:29 PM

By the way, I meant if they got SF on board they'd need one but that's a wrong calculation on my part. They'd need two more. I know FG + SF isn't a likely combination but just putting every possibility out there.

onceahoop

27/05/2007, 12:45 PM

Finian McGrath, Gregory and Healy-Rae will support Fianna Fail. Beverly Flynn also provided she can stave off Bankruptcy. I doubt if the Tiocfaidhs will support Fine Gael. That gives FF/PD/INDO'S 84 plus a parachute from Sinn Fein. I think there are some in Labour who don't like the idea of doing business with FG, Howlin in particular.

Poor Student

27/05/2007, 12:54 PM

I doubt if the Tiocfaidhs will support Fine Gael.

Are you kidding? They'd jump into bed with anyone who'd give them the time of day.

I don't think Howlin has a problem doing a deal with FG per se, I think he just doesn't like the idea of not fighting a campaign by themselves to maximise their own vote.

pete

27/05/2007, 1:08 PM

I think he just doesn't like the idea of not fighting a campaign by themselves to maximise their own vote.

Anyone else find the Labour moaning annoying. They entered into a pact & it did not work out. Its a bit rich of some Labour TDs coming out moaning about it not considering I presume it was a democratic decision to enter into in the first place. I still believe some of the ambigious comments by some Labour about going into government did not help them as on election day the majority of people seemed to vote for status quo or change.

Poor Student

27/05/2007, 1:22 PM

That's politics, Pete. The bigger the party the more bitching and backstabbing that will emerge. Obviously some people have designs on Pat Rabbitte's position. I see John Deasey quoted as saying FG didn't do well and a change of leadship would give them new energy. Wonder who he has in mind?:rolleyes:

Poor Student

27/05/2007, 3:07 PM

Enda Kenny has formally ruled out a deal with SF. RTE also said he 'does not accept he's an outside chance for Taoiseach'. I assume that means he's given up?

TonyD

27/05/2007, 3:58 PM

It looks to me like it will be FF, PD and the Indies. Does anyone else think it's a disgrace that a party(PD's) which has been decimated in the election is more than likely to find itself back in Government ? I know "that's politics" as the cliche goes, and it's all about the numbers, but still. I can't help thinking it's outrageous. Looking up the results on Aertel, the PD's got a poxy 56,000 first preference votes. And this entitles them to govern ?

BTW, on the Labour Party moaners, it's obvious that this is the section of the party who are not hapy with Rabbitte as he's not a traditional Labour man and see this as their chance to heave against him. After the last election they were saying that the fact they had no pact with FG was what cost them.

As for Deasy - LOFL.What a plonker he is.

pete

27/05/2007, 4:40 PM

It looks to me like it will be FF, PD and the Indies. Does anyone else think it's a disgrace that a party(PD's) which has been decimated in the election is more than likely to find itself back in Government ? I know "that's politics" as the cliche goes, and it's all about the numbers, but still. I can't help thinking it's outrageous. Looking up the results on Aertel, the PD's got a poxy 56,000 first preference votes. And this entitles them to govern ?

No more disgraceful that Berties buddy Cyprian Brady getting elected off 900 (2.7%) first preference votes in Dublin Central. Even with transfers he did not make the quota of around 6,900. :rolleyes:

I sensed a lot of anti-PD feeling even among FF voters. Will they be happy to take the PDs back in?

If PDs come in Harney will keep Health as suits FF. Who will take Justice? Dermot Ahern to risk his reputation with a tough ministry?

Lionel Ritchie

27/05/2007, 4:53 PM

Does anyone else think it's a disgrace that a party(PD's) which has been decimated in the election is more than likely to find itself back in Government ? I know "that's politics" as the cliche goes, and it's all about the numbers, but still. I can't help thinking it's outrageous. Looking up the results on Aertel, the PD's got a poxy 56,000 first preference votes. And this entitles them to govern ?

I think it just shows the tightness of the margins in which the smaller partys live -and indeed by which even the larger ones rule. The PDs number of seats has been quartered but their number of first preference votes only fell by somewhere between 15,000 and 20,000.

I find it far more galling that, as indicated by Pete, the likes of Cyprian Brady can get a vote that puts him down with the yogic flyers in the Natural Law party and still get's to be a TD. But that's the system.

mypost

27/05/2007, 5:33 PM

It would be a disgrace if the PD's got in on the back of 2 seats. The people have said that they don't want the PD's to govern anymore, so why haven't FF got the message yet? :confused: :mad:

Still think it will be FF + Labour, but probably best for the country would be FF + Inds.

Enda, concede defeat ffs, and go back to the drawing board.

pete

27/05/2007, 5:37 PM

Still think it will be FF + Labour, but probably best for the country would be FF + Inds. .

IMO no chance but hey its politics.

Greens look like will bargain hard which may be forcing FF in the PD, Indo alliance...

Mr A

28/05/2007, 2:45 AM

One point about the FF/PD/Independent option is that it's not necessarily that stable- Flynn has problems and Healy Rae is an old man and may not last the five years. Lowry might be a loose cannon. Gregory would ask for a lot.

On the other handy Healy Rae and his supporters could probably be most easily bought off simply by providing them with access to modern dentistry.

I think in the end it'll be FF-Green.

Erstwhile B�z

28/05/2007, 8:51 AM

No more disgraceful that Berties buddy Cyprian Brady getting elected off 900 (2.7%) first preference votes in Dublin Central. Even with transfers he did not make the quota of around 6,900. :rolleyes:

He didn't get elected off 900 first preference votes. He got elected because of the massive amount of other people giving him a second preference knowing that Bertie was safe on the first count.

It's a remarkable result and it will have civics teachers rubbing their hands with glee at the thought of a juicy example to explain PR STV with, but it's hardly "disgraceful".

OneRedArmy

28/05/2007, 9:02 AM

I'm clinging to the hope the Greens will be the coalition partner, otherwise this election will have been a complete disaster.

Independents are easily bought off with a few local projects and investment in their constituency leaving FF free to engage in whatever cronyism and shady practices they fancy at a national level.

There's going to be one hell of a party in Ballybrit this year....:(:mad:

Lionel Ritchie

28/05/2007, 10:03 AM

He didn't get elected off 900 first preference votes. He got elected because of the massive amount of other people giving him a second preference knowing that Bertie was safe on the first count.

It's a remarkable result and it will have civics teachers rubbing their hands with glee at the thought of a juicy example to explain PR STV with, but it's hardly "disgraceful".

That's why I said "Galling".;)

Macy

28/05/2007, 10:11 AM

I hope it will be FF/Independents (surely the PD's are so small now they come under the "others" category rather than having their own listing?).

MyTown

28/05/2007, 10:16 AM

Heard Tony Gregorys opening gambit is to state that if the PDs are entitled to a Ministry with two seats, then the Independents must be entitled to one with 5! Now that's a guy who knows how to play hard ball - fair play to him.

Wonder if the good people of Mayo who voted for Beeverly Cheesey Grin will stump up for her legal costs so that she can return to the gene pool? By all accounts her partner is a very wealthy man (no surprise there) and sure isn't her dad a propety magnate thanks to his loyal service to the state:rolleyes:

Macy

28/05/2007, 10:19 AM

Wonder if the good people of Mayo who voted for Beeverly Cheesey Grin will stump up for her legal costs so that she can return to the gene pool? By all accounts her partner is a very wealthy man (no surprise there) and sure isn't her dad a propety magnate thanks to his loyal service to the state:rolleyes:
Cost of her support might be re-admittance to the party...

monutdfc

28/05/2007, 10:43 AM

A few observations:
The 'disgraceful' thing about Cyprian getting elected was the blatant shafting of Mary Fitzpatrick by her own party leader. 5.30am on the mroning of the election and the whole Navan Road (where Mary lives) was leafleted by FF with a vote Bertie 1, Brady 2 and Fitzpatrick 3 campaign.

Interesting comment by Pete on Justice and Dermot Ahern...I had the exact same thought myself; I think he will go for it.

Correct that a bankrupt cannot sit in the Dail. Hence Albert Reynolds made a couple of off-the-record phone calls to John Ellis's bank to save him a few years ago. (Ellis subsequently paid off all his debtors is his consitutency while bankrupting some small farmers outside of his constituency. He lost his seat in this election after a re-drawing of the constituency boundaries.)

Don't think for a minute that FF will let Beverley go bankrupt. But if they, her wealthy partner (property developer) or anyone else pay her legal bill she will have to pay a big lump of gift tax.

Don't discount Lowry either. A 'Gregory deal' for Tipp and he'll guarantee his election for the next 20 years.

Don't be surprised if the Ceann Comhairle is strategically chosen from the Indos or even PDs.

No doubt in my mind it will be FF, PDs and Indos.
Then Harney can get Health and FF can deflect all the crap onto her, whilst the Indos a bought off with sweetheart local deals.