Election result

[Risteard]

Morning Ireland exit poll

FF 41.6
FG 26.3
Lab 9.9
PD 2.6
Greens 4.8
SF 7.3
Ind 7.5

Five more years.
The people have spoken lads.
And they're thick ****ing stupid.

[Magicme]

Morning Ireland exit poll

FF 41.6
FG 26.3
Lab 9.9
PD 2.6
Greens 4.8
SF 7.3
Ind 7.5

Five more years.
The people have spoken lads.
And they're thick ****ing stupid.

Sigh. Anyone want to buy a 5 bed house on the edge of Monaghan Town? I'm off to France 9 years earlier than planned.

[Bluebeard]

In fairness, it has always been a case of the village selecting it's idiot. Many people I know back home would take the attitude that elections and politics are about betting and about entertainment. Few people seem to actually make decisions about politics, they just select the argument that they think their candidate makes that is closest to something they feel they can defend - Fianna Failures banging on about the economy, FG's claiming the policing thing, Labour pretending to be socilaist...

[GavinZac]

democracy, huh?

can we safely say enda kenny will bugger off now?

[Risteard]

I remember rethinking whether democracy was the right way after Bush- Kerry but in the end i just think that campaigns should be regulated.
Each candidate should have the same amount of money for the election and limited posters.

GavinZac, he's fought a great campaign for FG.
This is a good result for them and they'd be better off with a bit of stability for a while.

[BohsPartisan]

GavinZac, he's fought a great campaign for FG.
This is a good result for them and they'd be better off with a bit of stability for a while.

I agree, but it won't happen.

[Risteard]

I wonder will that clown Deasy launch a leadership challenge.
The FG Cullen.

[GavinZac]

GavinZac, he's fought a great campaign for FG.
This is a good result for them and they'd be better off with a bit of stability for a while.if, as people have been repeatedly stating, this election was a no brainer, surely the single greatest failure was that enda kenny neither behaved nor performed like a future taoiseach. his recycled contract with the italian people, his refusal to justify claims in simple language, his poor debate performance and his talking 'down' to the people with his 'i met biddy reilly one night' anecdotes. surely then, he has thrown away what was, apparently a won battle?

or perhaps it was only won in ye're heads.

[OneRedArmy]

The most amusing thing is that, based on the pre-election polls, approximately 1 in 10 people convinced themselves they absolutely, positively weren't going to vote for FF this time around........then promptly did.

Ruari Quinn being suitably cagey on Newstalk about Labours position now, although he almost uttered the expected "in the national interest" phrase.

[noby]

I wonder will that clown Deasy launch a leadership challenge.
The FG Cullen.
Both on the same polling card. It wasn't a case of who I'd give my first preference, more a case of who was left after all the muppets were discounted.

Cullen's campaign, and he'll no doubt get in, was to lie low. The public concensus seemed to be that while he was an awful minister, he's the only candidate in Waterford to have a chance of being a minister again, so we'll vote for him.

[rebs23]

The public concensus seemed to be that while he was an awful minister, he's the only candidate in Waterford to have a chance of being a minister again, so we'll vote for him.

And isn't that the problem with Irish politics too much parish pump politics and me feiners and not enough on policy.

[Lionel Ritchie]

The most amusing thing is that, based on the pre-election polls, approximately 1 in 10 people convinced themselves they absolutely, positively weren't going to vote for FF this time around........then promptly did.

Ruari Quinn being suitably cagey on Newstalk about Labours position now, although he almost uttered the expected "in the national interest" phrase.

I'd like to hear Labour say that if the numbers don't stack or only stack up to putting FF back in they'll go for a re-run.

[mypost]

Cullen's campaign was to lie low. The public concensus seemed to be that while he was an awful minister, he's the only candidate in Waterford to have a chance of being a minister again, so we'll vote for him.

That's effectively a spoiled vote then.

[sligoman]

Early indications in Sligo/North Leitrim area are that 2 FF TD's and 1 FG will get in. Didn't think that would happen here tbh.

[BohsPartisan]

Early indications in Sligo/North Leitrim area are that 2 FF TD's and 1 FG will get in. Didn't think that would happen here tbh.

Out of curiosity, what were you expecting?

[sligoman]

Out of curiosity, what were you expecting?The FG guy was expected to top, instead he's coming 2nd. FF guy was expected 2nd and he's getting 1st and the other seat was expected to go to SF or another FG.

[BohsPartisan]

I'd say there'll be some smugness in Bertie's victory speech tonight. Looking forward to seeing Labour cave in, in "the national interest" of course.

[Risteard]

I know the exit poll was accurate the last time but anyone have an idea of just how far a result can swing from an exit poll?
Any chance of a rainbow at all on preferences?

[BohsPartisan]

Most professionally run polls carry a 2% margin of error.

[passinginterest]

I think they advertised 2.5% with that poll this morning. Almost 100% Labour will be in bed with FF by tonight.

[Schumi]

Looks promising that my sig will come true. :D McDowell might be in trouble too.

[Calcio Jack]

Looks like that Liz O'Donnell will be the first major casualty...

if there is a PD meltown that at least will be some consolation if Lab decide to go in with Bertie..... however whilst the exit poll would seem to be very favorable for FF, they won't get a majority and if the PDs face meltdown and FG/Lab get more transfers than they historically got due to the pre-election agreement...then (big if I know) they might just swing it with the Greens... going to be a long but entertaing few days !!

[OneRedArmy]

Whilst the % vote in exit polls is generally quite accurate, how this translates into seats can swing hugely.

Still looks like FF-Labour the only viable option though.

Will Rabbitte step down to save his personal dignity though?

The PD collapse is the only positive I can see at the minute....

[OneRedArmy]

With Luscious Lucinda Creighton of FG looking like taking a seat in Dublin South East I wonder could we see a repeat of the famous 9 and a half day count?

I suspect its Ruari Quinn or McDowell that will lose out (heart says McDowell to go, head says Quinn).

Very interesting.

[BohsPartisan]

Heard the last seat in DSE is between McDowell and Gormley

[Mr A]

I read on ireland.com that Ruairi Quinn has polled well. SF seem to be doing much worse than predicted and could lose seats in certain places.

[paudie]

Heard the last seat in DSE is between McDowell and Gormley

Didn't Gormley take McDowell's seat 10 years ago after a long recount?

Greens don't seem to be doing that well. Mayor of Galway not doing great. Talk that Dan Boyle may lose a seat in Cork SC. Possibly 2FF, 2FG, 1 Lab in Cork SC.

[paudie]

Will Rabbitte step down to save his personal dignity though?

.

That's going to be interesting.

Howlin has kept a very low profile in the campaign. Perhaps waiting to take over from Rabitte if they go in with FF.

[BohsPartisan]

The tally's are flabbergasting. Who are these poeple voting for FF?
I've also heard loads of people were turned away from polling stations last night even though they brought passports.

[Magicme]

Have signed up for text alerts on RTE for Cavan/Monaghan Constituency but nothing yet so must have no real news yet. Gonna check local radio stations website & c if they have anything.

Looks like usual suspects of SF Caomhaghin O'Caolain & FG Seymour Crawford are safe as is Brendan Smyth FF. Last seat a battle for other FF candidate Margaret Conlon who is not doing as well as expected.

[OneRedArmy]

I've also heard loads of people were turned away from polling stations last night even though they brought passports.If you aren't on the register it doesn't matter what you bring?

Seems after the register being 400,000 over with duplicates and dead people last time around the "clean up" has disenfranchised thousands of legitimate voters this time around.

[passinginterest]

Greens don't seem to be doing well on first preference but if our mini poll is anything to go by (OK it's not) they should pick up a lot of transfers. Same with Labour.

[Magicme]

Tallies so far Cavan-Monaghan, 95% Boxes Open, FF 38%, FG 31%, LAB 1%, GP 4%, SF 20%, IND 6%, Prediction No data

[Sheridan]

Would have preferred FG/Lab, but the most important thing (from a basic human rights point of view) was getting rid of the PDs. We're always going to be at the mercy of one of the culchie populist parties until they institute IQ tests at polling stations, but the PDs and their toxic ideology are as big a threat to our society as militant republicanism. Any result that gets shot of them is a good result. The best we can hope for is an FF/Lab government with the justice and health portfolios awarded to Labour ministers.

[MyTown]

Really disillusioned that a huge majority are still cosying up to lovable Bertie.

I can't believe his judgement has not been questioned on the appointments he made to his A team.

For me the disasters were
Martin in both Health & in Enterprise & Employment
O'Donoghue (moreso in Justice than in his more recent portfolio)
Cullen in Environment & Transport
Roche in Environment
Cowan in Finance (anybody see whats happened to inflation and interest rates since McCreevey got the red card?)
Hanafin in Education (specifically her shameful MIS-treatment of children with Autism)
Ahern in Foreign Affairs (okay maybe that's just because of the stink he kicked up because Dundalk won the play off...only:D)

I can't believe we are choosing the party of

Beverly Flynn, Denis Foley, Ivor Callely, Ray Burke, Padraig Flynn, Donie Cassidy Frank (how big is your property portfolio?) Fahey etc. etc.

(Oh and before FF supporters come back to say they've "expelled" Burke, Flynn and Foley -please spare me the cant - 41.6% in the exit poll suggests the gene pool is still in a very healthy state).

But we've made that choice it seems, and as I democrat I'll live with it, but I hate it. Bluff, bluster, builders money and blatant dishonesty are winning the day in my opinion. The majority disagree & I'll have to live with it, but I'm well sick about it.:(

[Clifford]

Really disillusioned that a huge majority are still cosying up to lovable Bertie.

I can't believe his judgement has not been questioned on the appointments he made to his A team.

For me the disasters were
Martin in both Health & in Enterprise & Employment
O'Donoghue (moreso in Justice than in his more recent portfolio)
Cullen in Environment & Transport
Roche in Environment
Cowan in Finance (anybody see whats happened to inflation and interest rates since McCreevey got the red card?)
Hanafin in Education (specifically her shameful MIS-treatment of children with Autism)
Ahern in Foreign Affairs (okay maybe that's just because of the stink he kicked up because Dundalk won the play off...only:D)

I can't believe we are choosing the party of

Beverly Flynn, Denis Foley, Ivor Callely, Ray Burke, Padraig Flynn, Donie Cassidy Frank (how big is your property portfolio?) Fahey etc. etc.

(Oh and before FF supporters come back to say they've "expelled" Burke, Flynn and Foley -please spare me the cant - 41.6% in the exit poll suggests the gene pool is still in a very healthy state).

But we've made that choice it seems, and as I democrat I'll live with it, but I hate it. Bluff, bluster, builders money and blatant dishonesty are winning the day in my opinion. The majority disagree & I'll have to live with it, but I'm well sick about it.:(

Spot on, that about sums me up as well. If I can convince the wife to move away again we'll be offski asap. Unbelievable.

[OneRedArmy]

Heard the last seat in DSE is between McDowell and GormleyI'm not too sure. Its very early days and counting always goes on into a second day in DSE. Gormley usually does very well in transfers and McDowell I would imagine less so. Not sure on Quinn, his first prefs are fairly high but its too close to call at this stage.

FF and FG safe as houses, which is noteworthy in the fact its two new relatively unknown candidates (Andrew and Creighton) against three relative big hitters who are struggling.

[nedder]

The tally's are flabbergasting. Who are these poeple voting for FF? .

probably the people who are far better off than they were 15 years ago, and were not convinced, particularily by the last weeks debates, that Kenny and Rabitte would be able to do a better job.

[pete]

I've also heard loads of people were turned away from polling stations last night even though they brought passports.

To think we laughed at the pathetic registration system in the US (e.g. Florida) :rolleyes:

Ironically Labour might get into government yet they will be seen as the big losers alongside in the PDs in the election. Looking like PDs getting blamed for everything bad in the government & FF getting all the praise.

IMO Labour failed to get the anti-government vote as voters did not believe they would stay away from FF. FG have picked up all the anti-government vote so whatever happens will be able to spin as success. If the Greens could get tough could become the major party on the left.

[Risteard]

But we've made that choice it seems, and as I democrat I'll live with it, but I hate it. Bluff, bluster, builders money and blatant dishonesty are winning the day in my opinion. The majority disagree & I'll have to live with it, but I'm well sick about it.:(

Another two factors are timing of the SSIA and a Thursday election.

[GavinZac]

Another two factors are timing of the SSIA and a Thursday election.

what has the thursday election got to do with anything?

[OneRedArmy]

Based on idle work chat, two of the people I sit beside changed their vote from FG to FF on the basis of the leaders debate.

Hardly scientific, but indicative that Inda Kinny was a liability to FG and much like the recent British elections, it was as much the lack of a convincing alternative as the achievement of the incumbent that led to no real change.

People appear to have settled for getting rid of the PDs (which I wholly approve of) in favour of giving someone else a chance to keep an eye on the FF scheming and shennanigans.

Also worth noting that FG were coming from a very low base historically, they were decimated in 2002 and that left them a huge mountain to climb.

Is there any chance FF will have done well enough to make the Greens (plus a few independents if there are any left) a potential coalition partner or I am dreaming on that one?

[Dodge]

Nice to see the PDs crumble

I hope and pray Labour do the decent thing and DO NOT go into government with FF

[OneRedArmy]

what has the thursday election got to do with anything?
Presumably the point is its too close to exams for students to return home to vote?

Really don't think that would have a material effect tbh....

[Poor Student]

I'm not too sure. Its very early days and counting always goes on into a second day in DSE. Gormley usually does very well in transfers and McDowell I would imagine less so. Not sure on Quinn, his first prefs are fairly high but its too close to call at this stage.


Pundits seem to be saying McDowell has the edge. He'll pick up transfers from FF and FG to a lesser extent.

My own constituency is going a bit weird. Gay Mitchell's FG seat seems to be lost to Labour or at least in big danger in and that's in spite of the Anne-Marie Martin factor.:p

[Poor Student]

Presumably the point is its too close to exams for students to return home to vote?

Really don't think that would have a material effect tbh....

50% of FF's vote is believed to come from 65s and over so it could have somewhat of an impact.

[pete]

As they say you get the government you deserve...

A vote for FF is a vote for Cowan as Taoiseach, Cullen, & Roche...

:(

[Dodge]

Pundits seem to be saying McDowell has the edge. He'll pick up transfers from FF and FG to a lesser extent.
But the greens pick up transfers from everywhere



My own constituency is going a bit weird. Gay Mitchell's FG seat seems to be lost to Labour or at least in big danger in and that's in spite of the Anne-Marie Martin factor.:p
Not that weird really. Eric Byrne has been a TD more often than not and has a strong loyal folllowing outside of Labour supporters. He's to the left of Mary Upton, who I have a lot of time for too. Is Catherine Byrne likely to get in or will FG be left with nothing?

[Poor Student]

Not that weird really. Eric Byrne has been a TD more often than not and has a strong loyal folllowing outside of Labour supporters. He's to the left of Mary Upton, who I have a lot of time for too. Is Catherine Byrne likely to get in or will FG be left with nothing?

The two FF are safe, Mary Upton is safe. Gay Mitchell thinks O'Snodaigh is feeling the squeeze (he seems very insistent on highlighting a poor SF showing in Dublin) but the independent reports suggest Labour are closing in on the former Gay Mitchell seat.

[Poor Student]

Is there any chance FF will have done well enough to make the Greens (plus a few independents if there are any left) a potential coalition partner or I am dreaming on that one?

They haven't even ruled out a majority government as of yet! So it's possible that FF will poll well enough to maybe only need the Greens to bridge it. I assume FF would prefer the Greens after the PDs as a coalition with Labour will require them to hand over a lot of cabinet positions due to Labour's reasonably decent seat haul.