Next Government

[Poor Student]

Interest rates out of control.


Are interest rates not decided by the ECB?:confused:

[BohsPartisan]

Are interest rates not decided by the ECB?:confused:

Yes but successive governments have been selling the EU to us for years so they're complicit in this.

Anyhoo, my point was that our minimum wage or average wage for that matter are not so great when looked at in the context of these other factors. Also you have to factor in the record amounts of debt as to why people have more money in their pockets, the banks are throwing loans around like confetti.

[SÓC]

In all fairness, we're not in a massively bad condition. Yes hospitals are over-crowded, crime is on the up but realistically, regardless of who gets in they'll do the exact same as all politicians are in it for themselves at the end of the day.

Who says crime is on the up?

Its an age old politician's trick. John O'Donoghue did it in 1997, FG are trying their best to do it now. Crime levels in general are actually going down overall but the hype is being increased all the time.

If you get a chance have a look at Zedner's reply to David Garland's book Culture of Control and an Irish book called Crime Punishment and the Search for Order in Ireland by S. Kilcommins et al.

There should be two issues to this election IMO. 1) What parties can continue to provide the tax revenue and 2) who are better placed to spend said revenue wisely.

One of the biggest farces of this election has been the FG/Lab "joint policy documents" eg Where is their joint policy document on the Irish Language? FG and Lab dont have a hope in hell of getting in together, they'll need help, their policy documents are not worth the paper they're written on once the Greens get their hands on them and even then they could very well need help from Indys or the dreaded PDs...

[OneRedArmy]

Maybe I'm in danger of dragging this off-topic, but I get the impression some people (in addition to the parties themselves) are attempting to credit FF-PDs for the Celtic Tiger and the current general health of the country. This to me is absolute bunkum.

In the interests of disclosure, I have a vested interest in this as I did my thesis on the subject of the main drivers of the Celtic Tiger. The mere fact that I did the thesis between 1998 and early 99 is the biggest indication that the FF-PD coalition have actually very little to do with Ireland's prosperity.

Ireland's recent found wealth has more to do with accidental factors (our location, the fact we speak English and the UK not joining the Euro), supplemented by policy decisions taken mostly in the 70's and 80's (but also as far back as the 50's) such as free education and Foreign Direct Investment friendly policies such as zero percent corporation tax and government investment through the IDA.

In actual fact, when compared with the original Tiger economies of South East Asia, our reliance on FDI at the expense of indigenous start ups is our clear Achilles heel. The Asian economies were much more efficient at using inward investment as a catalyst (or simply stealing the technology in some cases!) to starting up their own companies and develop sustainable employment. The problem with relying on FDI is that it isn't particularly sticky and it is always seeking lower cost economies. Eg it would surprise me if Dell stayed in Ireland in any great numbers for any longer than another year or two. What would the impact on Limerick be if this happened? Examples like this are repeated all over the country where we are very reliant on multinational firms to whom the attractiveness of Ireland as an employment location drops day by day as prices rise.

An economist would tell you the way to beat this is to ensure that you move up the value curve, as Intel have done, by having R&D facilities in ireland so that the new, complex and high-value processes that can't be done elsewhere are kept in the country. The same can be applied to services, so instead of call centres, you have shared services centres, back off-outsourcing, sales etc as you move up the pyramid.

Bringing it back on-topic, its this area that the current coalition needed to focus on, ie sustaining the economic and taking it to the next phase. I remain to be convinced that they have actually done enough to sustain our economic performance through diversification going forward and I worry that we still have our economic eggs in too few baskets.

So basically, FF-PD had very little to do with our economic successes and as is the way with economic policies, the error of their ways may not be felt until well into the next Government or even the one after.

Rant over!

[BohsPartisan]

In the interests of disclosure, I have a vested interest in this as I did my thesis on the subject of the main drivers of the Celtic Tiger. The mere fact that I did the thesis between 1998 and early 99 is the biggest indication that the FF-PD coalition have actually very little to do with Ireland's prosperity.



If you have an electronic copy of your thesis I'd be interested in reading it.

[OneRedArmy]

If you have an electronic copy of your thesis I'd be interested in reading it.I think I have a copy somewhere...........on floppy disk!!! I'll try and dig it out and PM you if I find it.

[BohsPartisan]

I think I have a copy somewhere...........on floppy disk!!! I'll try and dig it out and PM you if I find it.

Cheers

[pete]

Maybe I'm in danger of dragging this off-topic, but I get the impression some people (in addition to the parties themselves) are attempting to credit FF-PDs for the Celtic Tiger and the current general health of the country.

I don't think anyone was suggesting that. There was small debate on whether we better off now than 20 years ago.

Interest Rates controlled by the EU. Without the EU we would be living in mud huts. Where was Ireland in 1973? :eek:

[Magicme]

Where was Ireland in 1973? :eek:

Awaiting my birth! :D

[BohsPartisan]

Where was Ireland in 1973? :eek:

Roughly the same spot as it is now. :confused:


Without the EU we would be living in mud huts.

The house my parents live in was built in 1938. Its certainly no mud hut, in fact its better built than my house which was built in 2002.

[Lim till i die]

Without the EU we would be living in mud huts.

Huge swathes of corporation housing were built in this country before the EU was even a thought in a German bearaucrats head

And most of them are of infinitely better quality than the posh shanty towns springing up around our citys

That aside does anyone else think that one of the major problems in this country can still be traced back to the Anglo Irish Treaty, its aftermath and the Catholic Churches huge sway there after?

Ireland unlike other Europeans countrys has never had a proper Left/Right divide meaning that our politics is of the stale, sterile, nothing really changes variety

The choice facing the electorate next week is basically the old argument about which end of an egg to crack

Ot the Giant Douche v Turd Sandwich debate...........

[BohsPartisan]

the Giant Douche v Turd Sandwich debate...........

Turd sandwich all the way.

[OneRedArmy]

I don't think anyone was suggesting that. There was small debate on whether we better off now than 20 years ago.

Interest Rates controlled by the EU. Without the EU we would be living in mud huts. Where was Ireland in 1973? :eek:Pete, come back in a year and tell us what you think of rates being set solely to suit the German and French economies.

We've ridden the back of the boom for the last while and we are now in severe danger of feeling the pain.

The latest German economic figures came out yesterday and their economy is roaring ahead, which probably means at least 3 or 4 more interest rates rises in the next 12 months.

This is a crucial threshold for recent homebuyers as it will take mortgage payments well above the mandatory stress test the Financial Regulator makes lenders perform on borrowers. Affordability could well be an issue and it was a similar interest rate led crash that led to negative equity in the UK in the earlier 90s.

I'm not anti-EU or anti-Euro per se, but that gravy train left the station a long time ago as far as Ireland is concerned. Its now time to take our medicine (elegantly mixing my metaphors!).

[pete]

IrishElection.com (http://www.irishelection.com/05/the-second-irish-election-bookies-poll/)

Taking the PaddyPower odds on each constituency the government options come out at.

FF+Lab: 89
FF+SF: 80
FF+Grns: 79
FG+Lab+Grn+PD: 77
FF+PD: 73
FG+Lab+Grn: 74
FG+Lab: 65

Will definitely be new government.