Property Crash

[dahamsta]

And we're not even counting people working in estate agentsScrew them, they're all the dregs of society anyway. ;)

[pete]

I'll repeat it, 250,000 directly employed in construction. If 50,000 of them are out of work will that not have a knock on effect on the economy? And we're not even counting people working in estate agents, builders providers, etc. etc. .

I would doubt if 20% of the construction industry was made unemployed as that is a very hire number. I suspect a large number are emigrants who will leave the country.

There are i think 2m people employed in this country so 50k is 2.5%.

Estate Agents will have to take a drop in salary & move back to their job in McDonalds!

I think the big problem is that too much tax raised by construction taxes such as stamp duty. A reduction in this might stimulate the sector but could also means a large reduction in tax revenue (however recent figures showed i think a 7 or 9% rise since last year)

What is the solution?

[BohsPartisan]

What is the solution?

There is no solution to cyclical economic behaviour under capitalism as that is the nature of the beast.

[OneRedArmy]

There is no solution to cyclical economic behaviour under capitalism as that is the nature of the beast.What you mean it doesn't always go up and up? :eek:;)

If the price correction stays around the 10% level it will be a positive for the overall economy.

As always, we need to be looking to German, French and other Euro economy growth rates as the big risk remains interest rates continuing to rise, which are completely out of our control.

To Pete, your quote about price drops being irrelevant in the long-term for most buyers (which is the estate agents/bankers stock line btw) is true, however it becomes fundamentally a non-issue in a rising interest rate environment when people can't afford their mortgage payments.

In the UK in the early 90s this led to huge rises in repossessions, which led to forced sales at rock bottom prices, which fuelled further price falls and so on. Its hard to now exactly what the impact will be here as the Family Home Protection Act has always made repossessions the very last resort for lenders, but there is no doubt that defaults are on the way up (with the sub-prime bottom feeders getting hit first).

[BohsPartisan]

What you mean it doesn't always go up and up? :eek:;)



I know that but it seems some people think "this time it will be different".

As for repossesions, they are happening already at a rate that would be alarming if the full extent of it was common knowledge. The current lenders' tactic is to reposess and become the landlord.

[OneRedArmy]

As for repossesions, they are happening already at a rate that would be alarming if the full extent of it was common knowledge. The current lenders' tactic is to reposess and become the landlord.I'm not sure about that, at least in respect of primary family dwellings (as opposed to say investment properties).

I know the sub-prime lenders have secured a lot of judgments in the past 6 months but I'd be surprised if many have actually been repossessed.

In terms of the big name lenders, repossessions have been extremely rare.

[Ringo]

http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/mortgage-trap-will-leave-me-stonebroke-695645.html

[OneRedArmy]

http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/mortgage-trap-will-leave-me-stonebroke-695645.htmlWithout all the facts, it would appear a possibility that the person in this article wasn't entirely truthful in their mortgage application, as applications are stress tested to ensure a 2% rise in rates (what we've seen over the last year) can be absorbed by applicants on their current income.

[Macy]

I suspect a large number are emigrants who will leave the country.
Why would the construction industry let go those that it is exploiting/ paying below agreed rates?


Without all the facts, it would appear a possibility that the person in this article wasn't entirely truthful in their mortgage application, as applications are stress tested to ensure a 2% rise in rates (what we've seen over the last year) can be absorbed by applicants on their current income.
Most likely they were economical with the truth, however, it's not like the lenders haven't known about this practice for years and have failed to factor it in into their stress testing. In my experience, the banks were actively trying to encourage us to take out more products that would've increased our outgoings, with one insisting we switch our credit union loans into their much higher interest rate loans! Also we had lenders telling us "you shouldn't have put down your credit union loans as we've no way of checking". We were also encouraged to put in for more than we actually wanted or needed in several places. If this was/ is the common practice then people will be in trouble if there's a downturn.

The other unknown is what rate they stress tested against. Is it practice to stress test at the normal lending rate or the new customer discounted rates?

[Ringo]

it seems they can't pay the standard rate, you'd wonder what kind of brain they have, as it appears the person is a professional:rolleyes:. They deserve everything they get for being so stupid. No doubt they bought an over priced piece of $hit, because its on the Southside & oisin & orla can go to the local gael scoil, where they won't have to deal with imigrants.

[BohsPartisan]

I'm not sure about that, at least in respect of primary family dwellings (as opposed to say investment properties).

.

I was told this by someone who works for a major lender. Maybe its not true but I don't see why they'd want to make this up. Seems its primarily happening at the top end of the market, your five bedroom houses that people bit off more than they could chew with.

[OneRedArmy]

Most likely they were economical with the truth, however, it's not like the lenders haven't known about this practice for years and have failed to factor it in into their stress testing. In my experience, the banks were actively trying to encourage us to take out more products that would've increased our outgoings, with one insisting we switch our credit union loans into their much higher interest rate loans! Also we had lenders telling us "you shouldn't have put down your credit union loans as we've no way of checking". We were also encouraged to put in for more than we actually wanted or needed in several places. If this was/ is the common practice then people will be in trouble if there's a downturn.

The other unknown is what rate they stress tested against. Is it practice to stress test at the normal lending rate or the new customer discounted rates?You stress against the full rate.

Agree on the above, but we all have a personal responsibility, it shouldn't be the banks responsibility to verify every piece of information is correct.

The lender who told you not to put down your loans should be disciplined, clear breach of ethics and something the Financial Regulator needs to be focusing more on.

[Macy]

Agree on the above, but we all have a personal responsibility, it shouldn't be the banks responsibility to verify every piece of information is correct.
I agree to some extent, but it's not always that easy when prices are rising so fast, you're being told it's a sure bet and getting the hard sell from a broker.

Financial Regulator would do fook all, even if you could prove it. Afterall, it approved the 100% and 110% mortgages, where people have much more potential for being trapped by negative equity.

Ringo - in which case whats the point of stress testing, or even having a financial regulator? A case like that raises as many questions about the effectiveness of the stress testing as it does about the person themselves.

[pete]

Sub-prime is called that for a reason. Maybe its irresponsible to give mortgages to some people but I suppose thats why they charged higher rate. If someone is taking out a mortgage with a sub-prime lender then presumably they have bad credit history so is it any surprise they fail to make the repayments.

There will always be repossessions but I would be surprised if Main Street Banks did this unless no other option as they get bad media coverage. Much easier to increase the term or other solutions.

[Poor Student]

There will always be repossessions but I would be surprised if Main Street Banks did this unless no other option as they get bad media coverage. Much easier to increase the term or other solutions.

The repossession figures for AIB and BoI are very low. The smaller banks were more reckless in giving out 100% mortages but bigger banks like the AIB don't tend to give more than 92% to those who aren't earning reasonably high. The bigger banks are also more stringent in their stress testing. I think the ECB is bringing in stronger mandatory stress testing but the bigger banks already meet the suggested levels. So the bigger banks don't really have to repossess as they were careful enough and lost a lot of custom by doing so. You'll notice AIB and BoI's share of the mortgage market isn't as high as their share of other banking products.

Housing prices have dropped for 3 consecutive months up to May. June's results should be out soon. Do people still feel we're heading for a crash?

I don't really understand this reduction in construction levels too well, but will the dropping levels not compensate and halt price drops with the supply dropping to meet the same or increasing demand?

[Saint Tom]

The repossession figures for AIB and BoI are very low. The smaller banks were more reckless in giving out 100% mortages but bigger banks like the AIB don't tend to give more than 92% to those who aren't earning reasonably high. The bigger banks are also more stringent in their stress testing. I think the ECB is bringing in stronger mandatory stress testing but the bigger banks already meet the suggested levels. So the bigger banks don't really have to repossess as they were careful enough and lost a lot of custom by doing so. You'll notice AIB and BoI's share of the mortgage market isn't as high as their share of other banking products.

Housing prices have dropped for 3 consecutive months up to May. June's results should be out soon. Do people still feel we're heading for a crash?

I don't really understand this reduction in construction levels too well, but will the dropping levels not compensate and halt price drops with the supply dropping to meet the same or increasing demand?

AIB or BOI have never been the biggest mortgage lender. IP now PTSB have traditionally held that mantle, and to suggest their credit policy is any more reckless than said rip-off merchants is folly. All mortgage applications are stress tested by two per cent of the full rate applicable after discounts. Standard lending criteria for people earning less than a combined income of €75k also dictates that their borrowings should not exceed 35% of net monthly salary, anything underwritten outside these guidelines being done so only by profeessional underwriters. You cannot blame the banks for the stupidity of people biting off more than they can chew and not disclosing material facts that do not become apparent on an Irish Credit Bureau report eg (credit union loans, maintenance payments, interests outside of ireland). When will Irish people stop feeling sorry for themselves and realise that financial independence is knowing your budget and not blaming the big bad banks for not dumbing down already dumbed down and regulated information?

latest economic reports from the institution I work for indicate a 9% devaluation by middle of 2008 and things will resume at normal levels (pre crazy years). People forget here that the biggest factor was the supply of new housing finally catching up with demand, which it did for the first time last year in a long time

[dahamsta]

Saying it's all down to stupidity of people is as bad as saying it's all the banks' fault. It's a naive overview at best.

adam

[Poor Student]

Saint Tom, I wasn't blaming the big bad banks, I was just saying that you won't see AIB or BOI having to repossess as much as they don't give out mortgages as easily.

There's an article in the Indo today about prices on the outskirts of Dublin in some properties are dropping 10k a month due to over supply and other market pessimism: http://www.independent.ie/national-news/house-prices-plummet-by-up-to-euro10000-every-month-1044153.html

[Reality Bites]

Having first hand knowledge of the House Building industry I would make the following comments on the Hard / Soft Landing theory: From about September last year Sellers started to find the market shifting over to Buyers markets due to increased Interest Rates and over inflated property prices of the last decade or so, this day has well and truly died as affordability crumbled for first time buyers and rental yields for investors no longer kept up with mortgage repayments this scenario propagated itself well into 2007 and remains to this very day leading to the scenario we now have with over inflated prices being reduced to near market value..
I can tell you now that Developers are only shifting units in large schemes in single digit figures and not the double or triple figures they have come used to over the last few years, so what have they done they have stopped building and taking up their Planning Permissions (PP's remain for 5 years after Grant) the Bigger one can afford to this this while the smaller Builder will feel the pressure with demanding Cashflow.
What does this mean for the average Joe wishing to purchase well my gut instinct is this there may be one more rise in rates in September but the cycle is showing signs of ending as the German economy the main driver in interest rates rises shows signs of slowing and the increased trouble the US economy finds itself in will drive Trichet to cease rate rises as the Euro becomes more and more uncompetitive against the US Dollar. So then Rates will stop rising, prices in House will have remained stagnant or reduced by 10% over a 12 months period Stamp Duty is now gone.. If the avearge Joe is mindful of the fact that Builders will not be producing the same volume of housing for 2-3 years there will be a drastic drop in supply leading to the standard convention on which Economics is based on Supply & Demand- Reduced Supply means Demand Increases and with it Prices, So its my two Cents that this Autumn may be a Golden opportunity to nick in and buy a house without all the hassle of bidding or waiting lists as we may not see a cycle like this for another 10 years!

[OneRedArmy]

Having first hand knowledge of the House Building industry I would make the following comments on the Hard / Soft Landing theory: From about September last year Sellers started to find the market shifting over to Buyers markets due to increased Interest Rates and over inflated property prices of the last decade or so, this day has well and truly died as affordability crumbled for first time buyers and rental yields for investors no longer kept up with mortgage repayments this scenario propagated itself well into 2007 and remains to this very day leading to the scenario we now have with over inflated prices being reduced to near market value..
I can tell you now that Developers are only shifting units in large schemes in single digit figures and not the double or triple figures they have come used to over the last few years, so what have they done they have stopped building and taking up their Planning Permissions (PP's remain for 5 years after Grant) the Bigger one can afford to this this while the smaller Builder will feel the pressure with demanding Cashflow.
What does this mean for the average Joe wishing to purchase well my gut instinct is this there may be one more rise in rates in September but the cycle is showing signs of ending as the German economy the main driver in interest rates rises shows signs of slowing and the increased trouble the US economy finds itself in will drive Trichet to cease rate rises as the Euro becomes more and more uncompetitive against the US Dollar. So then Rates will stop rising, prices in House will have remained stagnant or reduced by 10% over a 12 months period Stamp Duty is now gone.. If the avearge Joe is mindful of the fact that Builders will not be producing the same volume of housing for 2-3 years there will be a drastic drop in supply leading to the standard convention on which Economics is based on Supply & Demand- Reduced Supply means Demand Increases and with it Prices, So its my two Cents that this Autumn may be a Golden opportunity to nick in and buy a house without all the hassle of bidding or waiting lists as we may not see a cycle like this for another 10 years!Given that rates are unlikely to go down in the short-medium term, property is as unaffordable as ever, regardless of no stamp duty or any small (c10%) fall in prices.

Only a builder would avocate buying in the next 6-9 months. I'm in a position to buy and will be staying out of the market until at least Q2 next year, if not longer. The way I see it, the only downside is that prices are pretty much the same, with at least a 1 in 3 chance they could fall another 10% between now and then.

Also, rental yields for investors haven't kept pace with mortgage payments for at least the last 5 years. Recent rent increases will have been eaten up by the rise in mortgage repayments.

Factor in all the unlet apartments that people couldn't be bothered renting as the capital appreciation kept them happy (oops, need to get someone in quick!) and the demand and supply equation looks slightly different.

And finally, assume a lot of the foreign builders return home as there are fewer houses to build and demand falls further.....

Bottom line is that the fall has a while to run yet.

[Macy]

And finally, assume a lot of the foreign builders return home as there are fewer houses to build and demand falls further.....
This is the key factor that was missed in the above analysis. The reliance on construction employment cannot be ignored. If you stop building, yes on the face of it supply will be restricted so demand will go up leading to increasing prices. However, the economy has been kept in a spiral for the last number of years of house construction fuelling employment fuelling house buying fuelling house construction. Slow construction, you slow employment and so slow demand too.

Where I'd differ is that whether the foreign builders will return home. On the contrary, the developers will probably increase the numbers that they can shaft on agreed terms and conditions, instead letting go the workers that want and insist on the agreed rates of pay. They'll be allowed to do this by the Government with the support of IBEC/ISME/Every media organisation - like they have the last number of years.

[Poor Student]

Average price paid for a house down again in June both nationally and in Dublin. Average price paid for a house now down €8,000 from the start of the year: http://www.rte.ie/business/2007/0810/houses.html


It'll be interesting to see how the market goes if Trichet doesn't hold back on that rate increase for September.

[pete]

8,000 is not much & IMO a good thing. It will help the bubble have a softer landing rather than bursting.

[dahamsta]

Are we still grasping at completely unprecendented makey-uppey "soft landings"?

[pete]

Are we still grasping at completely unprecendented makey-uppey "soft landings"?

2.6% over 6 months is soft.

It is no ones interest that the market crashes (maybe say 15% drop over 12 months). A soft landing as the market adjusts is a good thing as it is unsustainable for prices to rise so much higher than wages especially combined with interest rate increases (looks like will be some time before the ultra cheap German cash is available again)

[OneRedArmy]

Are we still grasping at completely unprecendented makey-uppey "soft landings"?If we continue to listen to the view of "economists" employed by estate agents who most radio and TV stations tend to drag in as their experts........then yes!!

Nothing to see here, move along everyone, keep buying property....:D

[dahamsta]

2.6% over 6 months is soft.6 months in the property market is roughly equivalent to a month in mainstream industry. House prices are sinking, and the rate at which they're sinking is increasing, not decreasing. House and car repossessions are up, as are credit defaults and bridging loans in the credit unions. Nothing is in place to slow the rate - the Irish government is clutching at straws at best - but it's unlikely anything put in place would succeed anyway.

Because there's no such thing as a "soft landing". There's never been a "soft landing" in recorded economic history,and if there ever is, this isn't going to be the precedent. It just can't happen in our current economic state. All we can do is sit back and hope that it doesn't drag the entire economy into recession and us back to where Fianna Fail picked up the reins as we dragged ourselves out of a recession the last time.

At least this time the moronic Fianna Fail voters won't be in a position to blame the Opposition for the stupid situation Bertie and the rest of his scheming, selfish muppets have put us in.

adam

[OneRedArmy]

2.6% over 6 months is soft.

It is no ones interest that the market crashes (maybe say 15% drop over 12 months). A soft landing as the market adjusts is a good thing as it is unsustainable for prices to rise so much higher than wages especially combined with interest rate increases (looks like will be some time before the ultra cheap German cash is available again)Pete if you look at seller behaviour, we are still in the early part of a downturn where stubborn human nature kicks in and people refuse to lower their asking price despite little interest.

This is reflected in the fact that there is very little activity in the market, despite summer being the prime season for second-hand sales.

Therefore the true drop in prices is understated by all those people who have had unsold properties on the market for ages with asking prices that are simply never going to be met.

It will take at least another 6-12 months for the real effect to be felt and I personally don't think the drop in the supply of new homes will be enough to halt the slide.

As dahamsta has said, the idea of a "soft landing" is dreamt up by politicians, bankers and estate agents, all of whom are hardly honest brokers in the great property swindle.

[pete]

We need to believe a soft (or softish) landing is possible otherwise the economy will depress itself. Credit is good for economies as ensures people have to work to pay it back. When we stop spending money in an economy that relies on indirect taxes we are all screwed.

I don't believe the house repossessions are too large yet & mainly restricted to the sub-prime high risk sector.

[OneRedArmy]

We need to believe a soft (or softish) landing is possible otherwise the economy will depress itself. Credit is good for economies as ensures people have to work to pay it back. When we stop spending money in an economy that relies on indirect taxes we are all screwed.

I don't believe the house repossessions are too large yet & mainly restricted to the sub-prime high risk sector.Firstly, the economy isn't depressing itself!!! There are real fundamental reasons why growth is slowing such as interest rates, inflation, poor infrastructure, competition from low cost countries, changes in US tax law etc. This was happening before the property market turned. Also, publications like the Economist have been showing concern about Ireland's economy for years. We've just been brainwashed by a combination of a FF govt, banks, estate agents and a print media who were making too much from their property supplements (anyone notice they've disappeared in the last two months?) to report objectively.

Secondly, repossessions are an uncharted water in Ireland. A combination of the Family Home Protection Act, an uncharacteristic unwillingness of the large Irish banks to forceably repossess and a rising market meaning everyone was overcollateralised and you could hand back the keys without further action means that repossessions in Ireland have been verging on non-existant. The sub-prime market (which is still very small) is changing this and negative equity may also change the large banks attitudes.

Defaults and missed payments is a much better measure than repossessions (in any case repossessions take years to go through the courts so will lag significantly).

[OneRedArmy]

http://www.rte.ie/business/2007/0905/houses.html

About time this thread got going again. Are any of the "soft landing" happy clappers ready to admit they were wrong yet? :D

Interesting article on arandomwalk.com that the market benchmark PTSB/ESRI houseprice index of property prices are...shock horror......based on valuations and not actual sales.

Its highly likely therefore that the index, which has still shown significant falls over the last year, is overstated.

[passinginterest]

Log on to Daft.ie and have a look around and the drop in prices is staggering.
My girlfriend's sister bought a house in Sundale, Tallaght about 2 years ago paying just under 300,000 from what I can remember.
About 12 months ago the asking price for houses in the area had risen to 335,000.
Now log on to daft and there's a load of houses for around 285,000.
If that's not a crash I don't know what is.
Same kind of thing in Springfield in Tallaght, houses that were close to 350,000 12 months ago now asking 300,000.

I make that more than 15% of a drop (and my maths are not the best).

[pete]

My girlfriend's sister bought a house in Sundale, Tallaght about 2 years ago paying just under 300,000 from what I can remember.
About 12 months ago the asking price for houses in the area had risen to 335,000.
Now log on to daft and there's a load of houses for around 285,000.
If that's not a crash I don't know what is.
Same kind of thing in Springfield in Tallaght, houses that were close to 350,000 12 months ago now asking 300,000.

The drop in new home starts will reduce supply which according to the laws of demand & supply will increase prices, all things being equal of course.

I make that 5% drop in 2 years which is not a crash . Obviously the drop is a lot more if you bought at the top end.

I would guess 15%+ reductions year on year would be a crash?

[Dodge]

Bought my house for €218k in Nov 04. Houses in my estate going for €300k now. I see it as more of a finding our level rather than it being a crash

[dahamsta]

You're embarassing yourself now pete. There are over 200,000 unoccupied properties in Ireland, not including holiday homes. Supply and demand will drive prices down even further, not up.

adam

[OneRedArmy]

The drop in new home starts will reduce supply which according to the laws of demand & supply will increase prices, all things being equal of course.

I make that 5% drop in 2 years which is not a crash . Obviously the drop is a lot more if you bought at the top end.

I would guess 15%+ reductions year on year would be a crash?Pete, as a matter of interest do you work in the property sector? Your optimism is somewhat out of kilter with reality.

Prices will only increase when supply drops below demand. We had 250,000 empty properties at the last census, the vast majority of which are not holiday homes. So factor that in and supply still looks excessive.

In terms of a year on year drop, 10% seems to be the norm rather than the exception in certain areas of Dublin, so 15% appears not unlikely in those areas.

As for defining a crash, it need not happen over one year to be defined a crash. We appear to be in a slow, continual slide, which is even more dangerous to the economy. A short sharp shock would actually be preferable as the recovery could start quicker.

[pete]

Pete, as a matter of interest do you work in the property sector? Your optimism is somewhat out of kilter with reality.


Nope. Little or no connection to the industry either.

When I said reduction in supply would increase prices I did quantify with the "all things remaining equal". I don't have much facts on the market (I think we can agree that estate agents & banks not the most reliable) but prices will or fall less based on a huge decrease in new homes.

200k empty houses does seem a lot but it would be interesting to know how many empty say 2 years ago. Again I am no expert but I would guess it is reasonable to assume 100k empty houses even in a buoyant market?

If we honestly believed a big crash was on the way then the logical move would be sell up & rent for a couple of years & buy back house when the market picks up.

I do get the impression a lot of people are holing off due to uncertainty & the rising interest rates. If the pesky Germans would go back into recession the cheap cash could return ;)

Maybe my opinion skewed by the fact my mortgage is relatively low percentage of value (I could only guess at its value) & its a home not an investment.

[MojoPin]

You're embarassing yourself now pete. There are over 200,000 unoccupied properties in Ireland, not including holiday homes. Supply and demand will drive prices down even further, not up.

adam


We had 250,000 empty properties at the last census, the vast majority of which are not holiday homes.


where are they hiding all these properties? ...... im not doubting you or being smart id just like to see if this is true. as in a country of 4 million people approx.. thats a massive percentage of houses to be empty

[BohsPartisan]

Well beside laytown station there's half a developement empty that has been on the market for a year for a start.

[OneRedArmy]

where are they hiding all these properties? ...... im not doubting you or being smart id just like to see if this is true. as in a country of 4 million people approx...Look at any apartment development in Dublin. There's a lot of empty places in most of them. Friends I know who bought have frequently been the only occupied apartment on their floor.

Not sure on houses as the investment market tends to prefer apartments, but I'd say their are lots of places empty in the commuter belt.


thats a massive percentage of houses to be emptyAgreed. But as long as prices were going up in didn't really matter that it was empty, capital gains meant the mortgage wasn't really important.

[dahamsta]

where are they hiding all these properties? ...... im not doubting you or being smart id just like to see if this is true. as in a country of 4 million people approx.. thats a massive percentage of houses to be emptyTable 40, page 14.

http://www.cso.ie/census/documents/PDR%202006%20Tables%2031-40.pdf

adam

[Poor Student]

There supposed to be an insane amount of empty houses in Leitrim. 30% of all houses there I think?

Pete, you're also forgetting a fall in house construction means a fall in employment and the number of people with disposable income able to purchase a property lowering demand with supply.

[pineapple stu]

Also the number of people in the country needing a house - I presume a lot of the foreign workers will be let go and will return home as the construction industry contracts.

[dahamsta]

Of course they will, a lot of them already have. (A friend's father and brother run a busy timber-frame construction firm in Cork, I'm not just speculating.)

adam

[pete]

I think it was Leitrim @ 30% alright. You would have Leitrim as a sparsely populated country like Longford always has lots of empty cottages. 200k empty homes is 12% of the total homes in the State. How do they classify an empty home? Is an apartment/house that is still in construction deemed vacant? Anyone got the figures from the previous census?

Its also fairly clear from the figures that claims that only 3% are holiday homes is hopelessly low.

:confused:

[dahamsta]

All the data is on the CRO website pete, have a look yourself. I don't know who you're referencing with 3%, the CRO number is 20% circa. Houses under construction aren't included in that figure, or holiday homes. Again, you're clutching at straws, and I'll be honest with you, it's starting to look like trolling now.

adam

[Reality Bites]

The last two years of property discussions is becoming tiresome, too sum it up I think we're just in another stage of national progression the great property boom of the mid 90's to mid 00's is over, we're in a new phase of progress and adjustment culturally and financially, we're a young progressive nation attracting both unskilled and skilled workforce from all over Europe making Ireland a more diverse interesting country for it, the Service sector is booming, our infrastructure improves with every year..the hoards in Sunday Indo regularly and in an imbalanced fashion have been screaming out headlines the last few months which if believed we would all be all the dole crews next year, so what if jimmy made a fortune buying and selling propery in the last few years and greedy builders and Estate Agents in all their detestable glory made a fortune,We live in a capilist democratic country where Darwin laws exist..If you made money fair play to you enjoy it prosper and enjoy this country, we spent so much time building the UK and USA, what would our ancestors given to have had such opportunities that now exist in our little Island, so stop gripping and talking up a Crash move on, be optimistic and think outside the box!

[pete]

All the data is on the CRO website pete, have a look yourself. I don't know who you're referencing with 3%, the CRO number is 20% circa. Houses under construction aren't included in that figure, or holiday homes. Again, you're clutching at straws, and I'll be honest with you, it's starting to look like trolling now.
adam

I don't care one way or the other & we probably way off topic. There is no need to suggest a troll just because you disagree. :rolleyes:

Maybe I am looking at incorrectly but I see Table 40 says:
- 1.769m homes in the state.
- 50k unoccupied holiday homes.

The figures don't show how many occupied holiday homes but i would be surprised if 6-7 times more occupied on a Sunday night than unoccupied?

2002 figures http://www.cso.ie/census/documents/vol13_entire.pdf but I can't find the same table. Seems there were 1.25m homes in 2002 though.

[onceahoop]

Just to put things in perspective. In my neighbourhood in North Culchie Dublin a three bedroom semi is selling for €370k. I believe it was bought in the early eighties new for £29k = €37k aprox. In the mid to late 80's house's in this estate couldn't sell for €25k. All we're seing now is a levelling off in the market. Supply and demand, low interest rates -v- higher interest rates. But remember this, in the mid eighties interest rates were over 17% and the high rate of tax was 60% IMO we're a lot better off now than then. It's just that people have become more materialistic and want want want, and there are a lot of people out their willing to lend them the funds to do it come hell or high water.

[dahamsta]

Maybe I am looking at incorrectlyEnough with the trolling pete. You know damn well that CA is for serious discussion only, and you're not above the rules. Knock it on the head, now, or I'll toss you out of this forum like I'd toss anyone else out.

adam