So who is going to Qualify from Ireland's Group

[finnpark]

Germany and ..........

Looking at the stats and remaining fixtures:

Ireland will pick up 8 points maximum from the remaining games (4 points minimum). Cyprus is the only fairly sure victory. All the rest are very tricky matches.

Slovakia will pick up 14 points maximum (9 points minum)

Czechs should pick up 11 points

Germany
Czech 25points
Slovakia 23 points
Ireland 21 points

Its going to be quite tight for second if Slovakia have a good run. I cannot see Ireland making the top 2. Slovakia have to play San Marino twice meaning they have a +6points guaranteed where Ireland dont. They also have Wales and Ireland at home which are key matches for them to win. Ireland's only easy match is Cyprus at home. I think 2nd place will be decided with Slovakia matche against the Czechs.

[Cymro]

The Czechs are not looking too great at the moment and I honestly think you or the Slovaks could pip them.

We may have little to no chance of qualifying, but expect us to have some influence on how the group turns out. Can't see the whole campaign passing us by without at least one significant result, though we have been poor lately.

The key matches for you are clearly the away games against the Czechs and Slovaks. Win those and you can probably afford to drop points against us and Cyprus.

I'd have to say it's too close to call at the moment. Such a weird group, Cyprus are capable of beating anyone outside of the Germans and the other four besides San Marino will no doubt take points off each other.

Once I see the Czechs play in June I'll know a bit more about who I think will qualify.

[eirebhoy]

Slovakia (a) -
Optimistic prediction: draw
Pessimistic prediction: defeat

Czechs (a) -
Optimistic prediction: draw
Pessimistic prediction: defeat

Germany (h) -
Optimistic prediction: win
Pessimistic prediction: draw

Cyprus (h) -
Optimistic prediction: win
Pessimistic prediction: win

Wales (a) -
Optimistic prediction: win
Pessimistic prediction: defeat

Those are my realistic predictions. I can't see us winning in Czechoslovakia going on previous away form.
We really should beat Cyprus at home.
I fancy our chances against Germany. Put it this way, their hardest match left is in Croke Park. They'll qualify. Our players will be really up for it and usually put it up to the top teams.
Wales will be very tough, anything can happen.

I can't see the Czechs getting anything in Germany. I fancy Wales to get at least a draw from them. They should beat San Marino and Slovakia though. If my optimistic predictions come through it'll go down to the Czechs final match against Cyprus. We'll have played all our matches and they'll know what they have to do.

One thing's for certain, with McShane, Dunne and Carsley in the team we're very difficult to beat.

[Nailer77]

Slovakia (a) -


I can't see the Czechs getting anything in Germany. I fancy Wales to get at least a draw from them. They should beat San Marino and Slovakia though. If my optimistic predictions come through it'll go down to the Czechs final match against Cyprus. We'll have played all our matches and they'll know what they have to do.



Is that right? All the final round of games have to be played at the same time surely? I know Rugby's different but I can't remember it happening in football.

[jbyrne]

it’s a pity we don’t play the chechs in a few weeks time as i honestly believe they are struggling at the moment. come sept they could be a different proposition. it’s a strange group and anything could happen. just have to take one game at a time and hope for the best

[finnpark]

My predictions for Ireland are:

Slovakia (a) Loss

Czechs (a) Loss

Germany (h) Loss

Cyprus (h) Win

Wales (a) Draw

4 points from those matches. Ireland need 11 or 12 points from those matches to have any chance. That means 4 wins really Cyprus at home and 3 away wins. Almost impossible for Ireland to qualify.

[pineapple stu]

Is that right? All the final round of games have to be played at the same time surely? I know Rugby's different but I can't remember it happening in football.
We've no game on the final day.

[Nailer77]

Is that right? All the final round of games have to be played at the same time surely? I know Rugby's different but I can't remember it happening in football.


And how the f**k did we end up playing two of our hardest away games in succession? Slovakia and Czech away in the a matter of days.

[DmanDmythDledge]

Is that right? All the final round of games have to be played at the same time surely? I know Rugby's different but I can't remember it happening in football.
That can't be done because of the uneven number of teams in the group.

[eirebhoy]

Is that right? All the final round of games have to be played at the same time surely? I know Rugby's different but I can't remember it happening in football.
Yeah our last match is in Wales on 17th November. The other 6 teams in the group play on the following Wednesday.

/edit ...as others have already said. :)

[Nailer77]

Yeah our last match is in Wales on 17th November. The other 6 teams in the group play on the following Wednesday.

/edit ...as others have already said. :)


Thats bad organisation then, we should have fought tooth and nail to play in the last round of games, f*cking stupid actually. Unless we'd already settled on the '4 year plan' by that stage!

[DmanDmythDledge]

Thats bad organisation then, we should have fought tooth and nail to play in the last round of games, f*cking stupid actually. Unless we'd already settled on the '4 year plan' by that stage!
As fourth seeds we would have had less influence on the fixtures as Germany, Czech Republic or Slovakia.

[DeNiro]

Predictions are grand, but very few would have predicated 6 points from our last two games. This is going to be one of the strangest groups you will find. One thing that seems to have worked in our favour in this group is having too games together. We've always done well in the 2nd games, usually because we were terrible in the first. Let's hope we can get something in Slovakia and then see how we go in Czech Rep. I get the feeling we might be in with a shout. Cymro makes an interesting point in that Wales might have a say in what happens yet, but they will have to beat either Slovakia or Czech Rep, no point beating Germany as they will qualify. Let's hope they have qualified by the time they come to Croker!

[jmurphyc]

i don't see us qualifying. whilst there was an improvement in the performances last week, we weren't so much better than the slovaks that i think we'd be able to beat them away. the two games in september will prove to be our undoing. not sure whether we'll even beat wales in cardiff.

[jbyrne]

not sure whether we'll even beat wales in cardiff.

if we had to to qualify i think we would. maybe being optimistic but i think we may be finally getting somewhre with this bunch of players

[eirebhoy]

i don't see us qualifying. whilst there was an improvement in the performances last week, we weren't so much better than the slovaks that i think we'd be able to beat them away.
When do we ever beat teams convincingly though?

[DeNiro]

1 Germany 5 4 1 0 21 3 18 13
2 Czech Republic 6 4 1 1 15 4 11 13
3 Rep of Ireland 7 4 1 2 12 8 4 13
4 Slovakia 6 3 0 3 15 11 4 9
5 Wales 5 2 0 3 8 9 -1 6
6 Cyprus 6 1 1 4 9 16 -7 4
7 San Marino 5 0 0 5 1 30 -29 0


If we factor in that everyone has played and beaten San Marino the table would be as such:
Played Points
1 Germany 6 16
2 Czech Republic 7 16
3 Rep of Ireland 7 13
4 Slovakia 7 12
5 Cyprus 8 10
6 Wales 6 9

Let's not forget that Germany and Czech Rep have to play each other again (the day we play Cyprus), which is in Germany. They have to play us and Wales as well. Anyone fancy giving a possible points total for Czech Rep from those 3 games?

[Superhoops]

And how the f**k did we end up playing two of our hardest away games in succession? Slovakia and Czech away in the a matter of days.
I think we were always going to have two away games in September as the international dates in that month were between the senior All Ireland finals.

[shakermaker1982]

Predictions are grand, but very few would have predicated 6 points from our last two games. This is going to be one of the strangest groups you will find. One thing that seems to have worked in our favour in this group is having too games together. We've always done well in the 2nd games, usually because we were terrible in the first. Let's hope we can get something in Slovakia and then see how we go in Czech Rep. I get the feeling we might be in with a shout. Cymro makes an interesting point in that Wales might have a say in what happens yet, but they will have to beat either Slovakia or Czech Rep, no point beating Germany as they will qualify. Let's hope they have qualified by the time they come to Croker!

I predicted two wins for us (please see the Prediction thread displaying my Mystic Meg abilities!!!:D).

I can honestly see us getting a minimum of two points in our next 2 away games at the very least. If I had my optimistic hat on I could see us beating Slovakia and drawing with the Czech Rep. I've actually had a go at predicting our group when busy at work.......think we end up on same points as Czech Rep but lose out on goal difference. Wales do play a key role in the outcome of this group. They could surprise us all (fingers crossed) by beating or at least drawing with the Czech's at home, especially if their injury jinx clears up by the end of August. Germany should also beat the Czech Rep at home so points will be dropped along the way. Let's hope we give ourselves a chance by staying undefeated.

[DeNiro]

I predicted two wins for us (please see the Prediction thread displaying my Mystic Meg abilities!!!:D).

I can honestly see us getting a minimum of two points in our next 2 away games at the very least. If I had my optimistic hat on I could see us beating Slovakia and drawing with the Czech Rep. I've actually had a go at predicting our group when busy at work.......think we end up on same points as Czech Rep but lose out on goal difference. Wales do play a key role in the outcome of this group. They could surprise us all (fingers crossed) by beating or at least drawing with the Czech's at home, especially if their injury jinx clears up by the end of August. Germany should also beat the Czech Rep at home so points will be dropped along the way. Let's hope we give ourselves a chance by staying undefeated.

Yeh, I'm of the same opinion. I don't think we're out of it. If we drew with the Czechs, then they would have to beat Germany and / or Wales. I reckon Wales will pull off at least one result in the group, hopefully it's not against us. I wonder are we set up for a Euro 88 style qualification again, where we're not playing on the last day but hoping someone can do us a favour. Does anyone know is this the first time we haven't played on the last day of the group since Euro 88 qualifiers?

[Superhoops]

I predicted two wins for us (please see the Prediction thread displaying my Mystic Meg abilities!!!:D).

I can honestly see us getting a minimum of two points in our next 2 away games at the very least. If I had my optimistic hat on I could see us beating Slovakia and drawing with the Czech Rep. I've actually had a go at predicting our group when busy at work.......think we end up on same points as Czech Rep but lose out on goal difference. Wales do play a key role in the outcome of this group. They could surprise us all (fingers crossed) by beating or at least drawing with the Czech's at home, especially if their injury jinx clears up by the end of August. Germany should also beat the Czech Rep at home so points will be dropped along the way. Let's hope we give ourselves a chance by staying undefeated.

At this stage they are all big games, but the really big game is the Czech game. A win there would be worth an extra point if we finished level on points with them because of the rules if teams end up on the same points;

If two or more teams are equal on points on completion of the group matches, the following criteria are applied to determine the rankings.
a) Higher number of points obtained in the group matches played among the teams in question.
b) Superior goal difference from the group matches played among the teams in question.
c) Higher number of goals scored in the group matches played among the teams in question.
d) Higher number of goals scored away from home in the group matches played among the teams in question.
e) If, after applying criteria a) to d) to several teams, two or more teams still have an equal ranking, the criteria a) to d) will be reapplied to determine the ranking of these teams. If this procedure does not lead to a decision, criteria f) and g) will apply.
f) Results of all group matches: 1. Superior goal difference 2. Higher number of goals scored 3. Higher number of goals scored away from home 4. Fair play conduct.
g) Drawing of lots.

[stojkovic]

Germany and Czechs to qualify.

Would love to be optimistic but we have not beaten a half decent team away from home since February 1987.
So I cant see us beating the Czechs. A draw would be good if we win in Bratislava and Cardiff and beat the Germans at home. Then it is possible.

No game on the last day. Delaney and Staunton are legends.

[citizenerased]

Lads we have nowt to fear in any of our remaining games...

Slovakia away (win, draw at least)
Czech away (draw)
Germany (win, we can take em in croker)
Cyprus(w)
Wales(w)

11 points at least... total of 24 or 26pts preferably..I agree foocking stupid were not in the last draw of matches...disgrace if you will!!

One word BELIEVE!!!!!!!!

[elroy]

Its simple really, if we win all our games, we qualify!! :D There's optimism for ya.

[Lionel Ritchie]

I think it's entirely conceivable that we're going to lose four of the five games.

Wales are due a good day. It'll probably be against us in Cardiff. Can't see us locking them, Slovakia or Czech out and can't see us getting enough goals to be anything beyond consolation.

[carloz]

I dont know why but i really feel we have a good chance in this group, and that Slovakia could prove to be our danger. The Czechs are definly on the way down, they have an aging coach and team, there was the whole controversy over the prostitutes and the fact that the only match they looked slightly impressive was against Slovakia, and im sure local history spurred them on against them. They got extremly lucky at home to Wales, only snuck a win at home to Cyprus and in truth we let them out of jail with a draw in Dublin. Ifelt it when the group was named and i feel it more now, the czechs are there for the



Also one other point, i seem to remember a qualifying campaign a number of years back where on the last day the Czechs had to get a win in Malta to qualify...they only drew. Hopefully this will be a good omen as their last match is in Cyprus

[youngirish]

Everyone seems to believe we are going to walk the Cyprus game at home like we did last time they showed up in Dublin. Considering they've already hammered us I see us potentially dropping points against them as mentally they have one over on us already and will definitely fancy their chances of getting a draw at least. Considering the Czechs were lucky to beat them at home last week and they are improving all the time a draw is not an improbable result.

Of our last 5 games I think we will win 2 at most, probably draw 2 and lose 1. Either the Czechs away or the Germans will beat us. We won't get points off both I believe.

I don't think the Slovaks are good enough to beat us away. They were pretty poor in Dublin. I reckon that willl be a draw. If we play well we could even get a win though we need to improve over the summer.

Games we can realistically win (IMO):
Cyprus, Wales, Slovakia

Games that a draw will probably be all we can expect to get (IMO):
Czech Republic
Germany

However I think the Czechs may well drop points against either the Welsh or the Cypriots and definitely against Germany so they can be caught.

As for the Slovaks, I don't believe they are even at the races as they'll be beaten by the Germans and the Czechs and could easily drop points against the Welsh. They at best won't get more than 10 points from their remaining fixtures and are already 4 points behind us (with a poorer head to head if we get a draw against them away). We should at least get 6 points from our remaining games which should be enough for third spot.

TBH I do think it'll come down to us beating the Czechs away. If we don't manage to do that then I don't see us qualifying and at present we don't look good enough to get such a result against them.

[DeNiro]

A lot of people go on about the way we haven't beaten a side away from home since Feb 1987. Some day that run is going to come to an end. IMO I think Staunton is going to get somewhere in this group. The Czech Rep game looks hard but it's really the type of game where you would rely on the experience of Bobby Robson. He's been in those games numerous times, that's why he was hired. If we can't set ourselves up to get at least a draw, well then we don't deserve to qualify.

[Stuttgart88]

Cyprus are god awful.
Czech Republic only barely beat them last week. Reports I read say Cyprus missed a few late chances.


I heard Doyle say on TV that "win at home, draw away" is the mantra. No, No, No! Win away to buy insurance against lost points at home.

24 points would be a very decent haul from this group and I'd have bitten your arm off for it at the start.

I posted this before the group started - interesting to see how it stacks up now:

http://foot.ie/showthread.php?t=37310

[Ordinary Fan]

One good performance and we are going to qualify, it is enough to make you laugh!

Slovakia away draw (because we don't do away wins)
Czech away loose (Dunne and McShane suspended and a bad penalty)
Germany draw (spirited performance and the germans don't care )
Cyprus win (we need revange)
Wales win (because they are rubbish)

This is an optimistic assessment loss to Slovakia and Germany equally possible. I agree that the Czech's are aging but they should grap second place, wining in Slovakia and drawing in Dublin gives the the insurance for qualification.
Slovakia were missing 4/5 of their normal starting line-up in Dublin (suspension and injury) and we just scrped past.
4th in th group and 4th seed in the World Cup, forget a four plan, it will be 6 or 8 years at least before we qualify for anything.

[citizenerased]

Thats rubbish...there are no great international teams to fear anymore! if we had beaten cyprus away as we were expected to, we'd be sitting in an excellent position! the fact is that we can beat slovakia and czech rep awa, if we play them with the right attitude..we really have to go for it, none of this go for a draw crap it enevitably leads to defeat!!

We should do exactly what McCarthy did in the Amsterdam Arena in 2000, attack attack attack...

[Ceirtlis]

We missed our chance drawing with the Czech Republic at home. We were missing a few players but we had them on the rack and they were there for the taking. If we had been serious about qualifying then the team would not have been congratulating themselves on that draw. What makes people think that we are going to go away from home and beat them considering how bad we usually are away from home. "If" we beat Cyprus we would be in a position to challenge, nothing else but it doesnt matter because we got hammered 5-2. Slovakia look out of it as well. Germany and Czech Republic will go through and id say it will be wrapped up before the final round of games. Slovakia are going to have to finish a point ahead of the Czechs now because they lost 3-0 against them at home, i dont see that happening ordinary and all as the Czech's are.

[youngirish]

All I'll say is that we should be in a far better position when looking at our players to choose from in 6 months time for a number of reasons:

1. Both Reids should be fit and playing regularly.
3. J O'Brien will be back for Bolton and should be playing regularly in the Premiership again, hopefully in his preferred position.
2. Stokes and Long will continue to develop and either could be playing regular football in the Premiership at that time.
3. Stephen Kelly will almost certainly be a regular starter in the Premiership.
4. Mc Shane could be playing in the Premiership. Even if he isn't he should continue to improve as a player (the difference in him this year to when I first seen him playing for Brighton early last season is unbelievable).
5. O'Dea will be an established regular in the SPL and the Champions League (bar injury or severe loss of form).
6. S Quinn will have another half season behind him.
7. Ireland should continue to improve as he has done this season.

Obviously not everything will go as well as we would like for all the players mentioned above over the next 6 months but either way even if half have a good few months it should impove our team no end. This could give us the extra push we need to win some games that at the moment we believe could go either way.

Think positively, we have some exceptional young talent (as I'm always saying more now than I ever remember coming through at the one time).

[Stuttgart88]

Think positively, we have some exceptional young talent (as I'm always saying more now than I ever remember coming through at the one time).Despite the poor performances of the senior team and the serious doubts over its management, I think it's fair to say that in terms of emerging Irish talent in the UK there's been far more to cheer than moan about this season. Add to that the increasingly good form of Roy O'Donovan and other domestic players in the underage and B set up I think there's definitely qualified grounds to be optimistic.

Colin Doyle, Stokes, S. Quinn, O'Dea, McShane, Clarke, Long, Ireland and others have all shown signs of great promise, while the likes of Keogh, Ward, S. Kelly, Murphy, Elliott etc. are very close to the top of the Championshio and are in with a real shout of Premiership next year.

[Sligo Hornet]

I feel everything hinges on the game in Bratislava....a win and the confidence will rise significantly, resulting in a possible win in Prague, followed by the "big one" against Germany in Croker, which by then could be a home "banker".:)

However, defeat in Bratislava would bring an almost certain loss the following Wednesday in Prague.....leaving the rest of our Qualification dream as one big Car Crash!!:(

[Stuttgart88]

A combination of luck (in terms of player availability) and good managerial judgment could reap rewards if the forthcoming friendlies are utilised well.

I do think qualification is too big an ask however. I just doubt the ability of management to get the best out of what we have I'm afraid.

[pineapple stu]

I wonder how optimistic this thread would have been if the Wales performance had come after the Slovakia one?

A serious load of nonsense being posted here, I think. Cyprus God awful? They hammered us, drew with Germany and only just lost in Prague. They were beating Slovakia until their keeper was sent off.

Stop looking at results and form, and look at the squads?! Results and form mean far more than paper squads, especially when the squad technically doesn't include the manager whose job it is to get the best out of the squads.

And as for people suggesting 15 points out of 15...

[Wolfie]

A huge ask to get the results required.

The only approach is to take each game as it comes.

I've a feeling Shay Given could be busy against the Slovaks and Czechs...............

[tetsujin1979]

Cyprus haven't won away from home yet in the qualifiers and have conceded 10 in 3 games, and only scored twice (6-1 VS Slovakia, 3-1 VS Wales, 1-0 VS Czech)
A win over them at home in Croker, after the Germany game is not unreasonable

[elroy]

I think there is a little bit over optimism following last week. Yes we won the two games but didnt excel by any means. The one thing that I am starting to gain some confidence in is our defence with the trio of Dunne, McShane and Given we are solid at the back so therefore wont lose too many games in my opinion.

Yes it is in our hands but I think if we manage to take four points from our next two games we will have done very well. Realistically we need to win in Slovakia because the Czechs won there. I think the Wales Czech game in June is massive for us, we really do need Wales to get something out of the game. If the Czechs are only a point ahead of us going into the sept games then we might just have a chance. But I dont think we have shown enough yet to be overly confident.

[NeilMcD]

We have given ourselves a chance after a disaster of a start so fair play but no more. Now if we get 4 points out of our next 2 games we will have done very well indeed.

[eirebhoy]

I wonder how optimistic this thread would have been if the Wales performance had come after the Slovakia one?
I'm optimistic about the current team because it's a very good set of players. All Stan has to do is pick the right team, keep morale high and very little else at this stage. Our defence is excellent, our attackers aren't bad either and there's still the missing link to come in the 2 Reid's.

[NeilMcD]

Eirebhoy I like a lot of your posts but I think that is overly simplistic. Football is not played on paper and we have see teams like Greece win the European Championships and England fail time and time again. We may have decent players and some very good ones but if we are to do well we need to keep up with a simple game plan and to keep morale and hunger high. It is very important though that our game plan is simple enough for the players to undersand and keep it tight at the back.

[Wolfie]

Eirebhoy I like a lot of your posts but I think that is overly simplistic. Football is not played on paper and we have see teams like Greece win the European Championships and England fail time and time again. We may have decent players and some very good ones but if we are to do well we need to keep up with a simple game plan and to keep morale and hunger high. It is very important though that our game plan is simple enough for the players to undersand and keep it tight at the back.

Good point on the game plan. International coaches don't have enough time with the players to devote to overly elaborate game plans.

[zenokelly]

I think 11 points will do us and we are capable

Slovakia WIN (poor side)
Czechs DRAW (Id say well play for a draw and we can get it as they are bot in good shape)
Cyprus WIN (We are in a different league to them)
Germany DRAW (on a crappy pitch a couple of weeks after tens of thousands of fans trample it at the all Irelands it wont suit them)
Wales WIN (once we are still in with a shout)

Czechs still have to play Cyprus Wales and the Germans away which are three tough trips as well as having us at home and a derby game with Slovakia at home.
They are 3 points ahead at the moment (san marino)
Wales - draw
Ireland - draw
Germany - loss
Slovakia - win
Cyprus - win
All very optimistic but definitely possible with the form their in. It would then mean that it goes down to away goals where at the moment they are in pole position with the 1-1 draw in Lansdowne.

[pineapple stu]

Cyprus haven't won away from home yet in the qualifiers and have conceded 10 in 3 games, and only scored twice (6-1 VS Slovakia, 3-1 VS Wales, 1-0 VS Czech)
A win over them at home in Croker, after the Germany game is not unreasonable
Not unreasonable certainly. We're favourites certainly. However, it's not a foregone conclusion, and to dismiss them as God-awful four months after losing 5-2 to them smacks of an arrogance we have no right to display.

[citizenerased]

Its true, cyprus a poor side, if we cant beat them at croker...it will be a disgrace, after the defeat in nicosia, our lads will have something to prove, and i feel a comprehsive victory is on the cards...

[eirebhoy]

Eirebhoy I like a lot of your posts but I think that is overly simplistic. Football is not played on paper and we have see teams like Greece win the European Championships and England fail time and time again. We may have decent players and some very good ones but if we are to do well we need to keep up with a simple game plan and to keep morale and hunger high. It is very important though that our game plan is simple enough for the players to undersand and keep it tight at the back.
I certainly don't think we're favourites for the 2nd spot but there's a bit of optimism for the first time in a long time.

[danonion]

cyprus can draw with or beat the czechs on a good day, and god loves us if that happens.

[youngirish]

Not unreasonable certainly. We're favourites certainly. However, it's not a foregone conclusion, and to dismiss them as God-awful four months after losing 5-2 to them smacks of an arrogance we have no right to display.

Yeah I agree. It's absolutely silly for people to think that we are going to hammer a team that beat us 5-2 last time we met them.