View Full Version : Noob to online betting , tips wanted
gustavo
28/02/2007, 3:43 PM
Hi might as well make the first thread here .
So i got my paddypower online account but so far things arent going great .
Whats the best strategies , I tend to go for the accumulator bets mostly on football as i figure even having a slight knowledge of football removes some of the luck factor.
centre mid
01/03/2007, 11:21 AM
Only back singles, statisticaly you will not win on acc's in the long run, open more that one accountn ( i.e different bookmakers ) and only back at the best price available, failing that open up a betfair account and lay everything you've backed at a smaller price
JC_GUFC
01/03/2007, 11:44 AM
Pretty much what centre mid said is spot on.
Just because you put 5 results together and the odds are 200/1 makes the accum sound like value but the true odds should be more like 1000/1!
Obviously if you've got accounts with all the major bookies you'll always be able to get the best odds on offer, maximising your profits.
check out the threads on odds comparison sites as well - it will give you an idea of the differences between the major bookies in prices for different markets - they can be considerable
Back drifting prices on Betfair and lay heavily-backed teams as a general rule.
cullenswood
01/03/2007, 2:25 PM
Back drifting prices on Betfair and lay heavily-backed teams as a general rule.
Care to explain your rationale for this?
DmanDmythDledge
01/03/2007, 3:48 PM
Is it possible to bet online with a 3V card?
centre mid
01/03/2007, 4:02 PM
Not sure, the card probably doesnt have any holder details and they are ususally required for registration purposes
Care to explain your rationale for this?
A heavily-backed team is more likely to have gone beyond the point of value, whereas a drifting team is more likely to have gotten too big.
cullenswood
01/03/2007, 6:45 PM
A heavily-backed team is more likely to have gone beyond the point of value, whereas a drifting team is more likely to have gotten too big.
Interestingly risky!
If a team has gone from 1.7 to 1.4, and 1.4 is the lowest it has touched, and it is 1.4 shortly before kick-off, do you think at that point the value - if there is any - is a bet or a lay?
Dodge
01/03/2007, 11:14 PM
Depends on the circumstances JW
If you have them as a 1.3 shot, it doesn't matter that they've been backed into 1.40 or whether they've drifted out to 1.4
True enough Dodge but it's far more likely they'd be a 1.5 shot than a 1.3 shot (ie not many 1.3 shots are 1.7 at any stage :))
Aye, except in the first division until your man got into PP ;)
Yes indeed :) Likely Division 1 will be the place for the value this year. Did you back Cork to cover your Saints bet?
No, its only €25 quid hard money as the other €25 was match free. No point in laying that off
JC_GUFC
02/03/2007, 3:54 PM
No, its only €25 quid hard money as the other €25 was match free. No point in laying that off
That's exactly what I said when I had Cuba backed to win the inaugural World Baseball Challenge. My own €25 at 25/1 and a free €40 at 33/1.
They got to the final against Japan where both teams were 2.0 on betfair to win. I decided to hold out for the near 2k pay day! In the first innings Japan scored a grand slam! :(
Getting flustered about not having laid off after a long-term bet finally loses is one of the most futile exercises of all time.
If I got Pats at 25/1 and the odds dropped to evens. I'd absolutely green out.
But 4/1 and then laying off to save 25 is nothing
"green"
jw cant abide that talk
lol i agree wit greeenin tho:D
gustavo
03/03/2007, 12:01 PM
Am I the only one who didnt understand 90% of what JW and Dodge were talking about?!
sligoman
03/03/2007, 12:14 PM
Am I the only one who didnt understand 90% of what JW and Dodge were talking about?!Nope:o.
I'm sure the other 10pc made it worthwhile :)
'tis a debate that will resurface every now and again.
When, if ever, to green out?
France 1 up after a half hour of the World Cup final springs to mind, eh JW? Expensive holiday. :p
el punter
03/03/2007, 2:44 PM
Never green out. Ever. The mantra is you must take the value and you must keep the value.
I would occassionally back all sides of one event, but only if I was backing them all at a greater price than their true odds.
I wouldn't say "never" - if it's a value lay, ie - but generally it's not advisable.
But then you're into the trading v gambling debate. I'm happy enough with my strategy...
BTW didn't lay off unders in Bolton game earler. Wish I stuck to my principles now ;)
the 12 th man
04/03/2007, 4:54 PM
Never green out. Ever. The mantra is you must take the value and you must keep the value.
I'm not so sure,back high lay low works for a lot of people,some times its mad not to like when you back a 33/1 shot who comes into 3/1,you're saving your stake and a free 30/1 bet.
el punter
04/03/2007, 6:30 PM
I'm not so sure,back high lay low works for a lot of people,some times its mad not to like when you back a 33/1 shot who comes into 3/1,you're saving your stake and a free 30/1 bet.
It's a quicker gratification to lay off a value position, but unless you are taking more value when trading out all you are doing is undermining your original value bet. For those who see a good position out to the last the payouts will be less frequent, but they will undoubtedly be more rewarding.
Regardless of whether you are backing or laying (they are the same thing anyway - it's just perspective) the ONLY thing that matters is 'are you getting a better price than the true odds?'.
I lay off as I like to trade on loats of matches on Saturdays/Sunday and if I lay one off at 1.1 I can use the stake elsewhere
I like working with a small bank and make best use of it
Regardless of whether you are backing or laying (they are the same thing anyway - it's just perspective) the ONLY thing that matters is 'are you getting a better price than the true odds?'.
Spot on. An insistence on "greening" is chronically bad gambling.
nui-harp
04/03/2007, 8:58 PM
Can any1 tell me wat a lay is??? sorry but im new to all this!!!
nui-harp, it's basically the very opposite to having a bet. If I back Galway United to beat Sligo, I am hoping Galway United beat Sligo; if I lay Galway United to beat Sligo, I am hoping Galway United DO NOT beat Sligo.
Laying is a bet that something won't happen.
By the way, I will be hoping that Galway United beat Sligo :)
Spot on. An insistence on "greening" is chronically bad gambling.
in general - yes
in running football NOT always.
the reactions after a goal has been scored in football matches on an exchange can be so outlandish that it is possible to have got value backing something beforehand and still laying it or vice versa on an exchange during a game .
The price rarley reflects the true odds of an event happening during reactions to goals etc
Dodge
04/03/2007, 11:25 PM
Spot on. An insistence on "greening" is chronically bad gambling.
Well an insistance on not "greening" is chronically bad trading then... ;)
sligoman
04/03/2007, 11:52 PM
Laying is a bet that something won't happen.Why would anyone lay a bet so, what are it's advantages? Also, what's greening?
Dodge
05/03/2007, 12:58 AM
Why would anyone lay a bet so, what are it's advantages?
There's different types of laying bets.
1) In a game between Liverpool and Man U, you might think that there's no way Liverpool are going to win, so you'd lay them. In effect you're backing both the draw and Man U. As long as liverpool don't win, you win. Obviously you don't get as good odds as backing Man U or the draw, but either outcome will do. In a match with no draw, say tennis, you might want to lay one player as there are marginally better odds than backing the other player.
2) In a tournament bet or horse race, you might lay the favourite. In effect, you'd be backing the rest of the field.
3) If you backed a team to win with €100 @ 2/1 and they go one nil up, there in play odds will be slashed to say 1/2 (depending on time etc, etc). You may wish to lay them that team at this price, ensuring that you won't lose your stake. Instead of winning 200, you'd win 150 but you're safeguarding your 100 stake
Also, what's greening?
On betfair, your potential profit on any market is marked in green on that particularly page. Your potential liabilty is marked in red.
A few weeks ago I backed Athletico Madrid at 2.4 with €20. When they scored their price dropped to 1.2. I layed them for €40 (The backer would be putting 40 on them to win, my liability would be €8). It meant that I would win €20 no matter what the outcome of the game. I was "all green"
Schumi
05/03/2007, 10:37 AM
Ahh, I assumed the 'green' referred to dollars. :D
tricky_colour
07/03/2007, 10:29 PM
Why would anyone lay a bet so, what are it's advantages? Also, what's greening?
Laying the bet is effecively being the bookmaker in the traditional sense, the bookmaker wins when the you (the punter) lose. On betting exchanges you can be be the bookmaker and lay bets as well as back horses to win.
Anyway the best way to win is not to bet at all, you will never beat the 10%-20% profit margin the bookmaker makes at least not unless you are involved in some sort of cheating, and apparently plenty of that goes on in horse racing and maybe football too. So you have to beat the bookmakers margin and the money the cheats take out of the game too!!
With the ability to lay horses now there is too much oppertunity for cheating
but I have yet to see the race where *all* the jockeys in a race jump off their horses before the finishing line :D
Laying the bet is effecively being the bookmaker in the traditional sense, the bookmaker wins when the you (the punter) lose. On betting exchanges you can be be the bookmaker and lay bets as well as back horses to win.
Anyway the best way to win is not to bet at all, you will never beat the 10%-20% profit margin the bookmaker makes at least not unless you are involved in some sort of cheating, and apparently plenty of that goes on in horse racing and maybe football too. So you have to beat the bookmakers margin and the money the cheats take out of the game too!!
With the ability to lay horses now there is too much oppertunity for cheating
but I have yet to see the race where *all* the jockeys in a race jump off their horses before the finishing line :D
wrong
"Laying the bet is effecively being the bookmaker in the traditional sense" no
its not...and this is a common misconception
laying is = this is NOT going to happen
bookmaker = by definition a person running a book on ALL eventualities - far different to the lay on betfair. when u lay on betfair u are betting against ONE eventuality - being a bookie is TOTALLY diff
wrong
"Laying the bet is effecively being the bookmaker in the traditional sense" no
its not...and this is a common misconception
laying is = this is NOT going to happen
bookmaker = by definition a person running a book on ALL eventualities - far different to the lay on betfair. when u lay on betfair u are betting against ONE eventuality - being a bookie is TOTALLY diff
Not really. While a bookie lays all eventualities, his choice of prices mean he is effectively backing or laying one selection. When he deliberately goes best price on any one selection, he is clearly inviting the punter to bet with him, and heavily laying a particular selection. When favourites win, bookmakers lose. Case in point West Ham's late winner Sunday; cost a lot of firms a pretty penny as shag-all punters wanted to back West Ham, everyone wanted Spurs.
im not getting bogged down in this - but if you lay 0-0 in a match you are not being a "bookie" - you're not running a book on the market - you're just betting it wont be 0-0, no more no less
tricky_colour
09/03/2007, 7:46 PM
The point is traditionally you could not back a horse to lose (lay it effectively) now you can easilly by laying it on betting exchanges. This vastly increases the oppertunity for people to make money by 'nobbling' the horse in some way. The bookie lays the bet you make and by laying a bet you are in a sense being the bookie, albeit only for the horse(s) you lay. Indeed you could lay ever horse in the race if you wanted to and indeed every sporting event if you wanted too, the only difference being that you have a to pay a commission of 5%-25 which I would imagine compares very favourably with a 'real' bookies overheads. Indeed it seems to me it would be considerable cheaper than running the local Ladbrokes with the cost of the building, rates, staff, cleaners, televisions, electricity, heating, pens betting slips.....etc..
So actually it seems you could actually become the bookie and one just as real as Ladbrokes or Paddy Power!! Infact realising that for myself I am seriously contemplating setting myself up in business as a bookie!! Indeed at Redbet the comission is fixed at 3% which is pretty low considering I pay 5% commision at online poker and have been able to make a profit at it (albeit not so much recently!!). So yes you can become the bookie if you want to
and when you consider some of the 'overrounds' of 130% on some horse races it seems quite a tempting proposition!!
Anyone fancy placing a bet with Tricky's Online Bookmakers?!! :D :D :D
el punter
10/03/2007, 1:34 PM
you will never beat the 10%-20% profit margin the bookmaker makes at least not unless you are involved in some sort of cheating
That's nonsense. The bookies losing customers pay for the winning customers. From reading what JW, Dodge and WWS post I would be very surprised if they weren't beating the bookies (or the exchange customers) on their league of ireland betting.
The problem eventually becomes one of getting your bets on when you do manage to get ahead. The exchange markets seldom have sufficient liquidity and the bookies will knock back your stake to 1/4 or 1/10 of what you want on.
Most bookmakers (particularly Irish independents, UK & European online firms) do not have the resources to have somebody paying attention solely to the eircom league, so they miss out on important team news and other factors in getting their odds right. The odds quoted on Shelbourne for the Setanta Cup and their Group before they withdrew is obvious testimony to this.
Bet only on what you know about, be disciplined, keep a record of your bets and ALWAYS take the best price. Then you will go along way to beating the bookie's profit margin.
That's nonsense. The bookies losing customers pay for the winning customers. From reading what JW, Dodge and WWS post I would be very surprised if they weren't beating the bookies (or the exchange customers) on their league of ireland betting.
I do alright. I'm in profit on football, tennis, american football and rugby.
Bet only on what you know about, be disciplined, keep a record of your bets and ALWAYS take the best price. Then you will go along way to beating the bookie's profit margin.
Thats pretty much it in a nutshell. I do a lot of in play stuff too, where I play the odds but I've made mistakes learning. The key is don't gamble more than you can afford to lose and never ever chase your losses
im not getting bogged down in this - but if you lay 0-0 in a match you are not being a "bookie" - you're not running a book on the market - you're just betting it wont be 0-0, no more no less
You have a list of possible outcomes; one will mean profit for you, the rest will mean a loss for you. That is a book.
tricky_colour
11/03/2007, 1:16 PM
Some people seem to think the book makers lose when favourites win, however that is nonsense, if they are setting their prices correctly they should make the same profit whoever wins.
All you have to do is take 20% out of the total money bet (for your profit) and then divide what is left by the total money bet on any particular horse to get the odds for that horse. That way you make 20% whoever wins.
It doens't always work that way though. Bookies can price it up however they want if punters only back one outcome, they're on a loser (I think the William Hills guy said that they lost 400k+ when Spurs won last week)
el punter
11/03/2007, 3:30 PM
Some people seem to think the book makers lose when favourites win, however that is nonsense, if they are setting their prices correctly they should make the same profit whoever wins.
All you have to do is take 20% out of the total money bet (for your profit) and then divide what is left by the total money bet on any particular horse to get the odds for that horse. That way you make 20% whoever wins.
That's simplistic theory. In reality the money is seldom distributed in proportion across the book unless its an exceptionally strong market.
The bookie sets a line but the punters ultimately shape the book through weight of money. I can assure you that if the favourites win every race this Tuesday at Cheltenham there will be some bookies who will be wiped out and won't be back on Wednesday. If the absolute outsider wins every race then every bookie will be absolutely quids in.
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