What we need to do to qualify (perhaps)

[Stuttgart88]

Second place guarantees qualification this time around. Fact.

I looked at the full qualifying campaigns for WC06, UEFA 2004, WC02 & and UEFA 2000 to see how many points per game was required to finish second. I couldn't be arsed going back further.

Here's the answer:

Average points per second placed team: 1.98
Median: 2.00
High: 2.40
Low: 1.63 (including England, naturally!)

So, on the basis of the above, 2 points per game (i.e., 24 from our 12 games) ought to secure second place and outright qualification.

In 16 out of the 36 groups observed (so 44% of the time), less than 2 points per game was good enough for second.

Only 3 times in the 4 campaigns / 36 groups was a team eliminated with at least 2 points per game (Romania came 3rd to Czech Rep & Holland on 2.5 ppg, Holland finished behind us & Portugal on 2.00ppg and Belgium also came third behind Croatia on exactly 2ppg. 1.92 was next highest third place).

Is the following points tally out of the question for Ireland?

Germany & Czech Republic together: 4 points
Slovakia: 4 points
Wales: 4 points
Cyprus: 6 points
San Marino: 6 points

Total: 24 points or 2 points per game

I mentioned above that 44% of the time less than 2 points per game was good enough for second. This was usually in what looked to me like tight groups with quite good 2, 3, 4 and 5 seeds. It looks pretty much like that to me in our current group.

My guess is that 22 or 23 will do the job.

You can debate among yourselves whether we'd like to see a runaway winner (Germany?) leaving the rest to scrap it out, or an even contest among all our main opponents.

[CraftyToePoke]

put like that, its certainly not beyond us, and i think our tendency to take a point against the bigger sides means the required point tally from the czechs and the germans is not beyond us, however i still feel in one of these 4 games we are likely to lose one, but better to win one and lose one than draw 2 eh? can be done.

however, i can still see us, having surpassed ourselves with a legendary performance and result v one of the big two, going on to fail to beat wales or slovakia (or both) at home.

but i remain cautiously optimistic that we could do it. and i definately believe that wheather we quailfy or not, with the younger players about to come through, we will have many positives to take from this upcoming campaign.

[Dodge]

Good analysis Stuttgart

[Paulie]

Jaysus, put like that it's not quite so daunting. Very good post.

[soccerc]

Second place guarantees qualification this time around. Fact.

I looked at the full qualifying campaigns for WC06, UEFA 2004, WC02 & and UEFA 2000 to see how many points per game was required to finish second. I couldn't be arsed going back further.

Here's the answer:

Average points per second placed team: 1.98
Median: 2.00
High: 2.40
Low: 1.63 (including England, naturally!)

S


Written like a true actuary!

Now how much will my pension be worth?

[Qwerty]

Stuttgart88, are you Brian Kerr?

[Karlos]

good analysis Stutt......and to think you used to tell me to get out more!! :)


I will comment more sensibly at a more sensible hour!!

Fair play! :)

[mypost]

Germany (a) Draw
Cyprus (a) Win
Czech Rep. (h) Draw
San Marino (h) Win
San Marino (a) Win
Wales (h) Draw
Slovakia (h) Win
Slovakia (a) Draw
Czech Rep. (a) Lose
Germany (h) Draw
Cyprus (h) Win
Wales (a) Draw

21 points will be borderline for qualification. Depending on how the big teams do when they face each other, the points could be scattered around. The nightmare scenario for us, is a pile of draws between them, like last time. Our last game is the trip to Cardiff, on Saturday afternoon at 3.00, so there will be five more games to be completed in the group after ours, ensuring a nail biting finish on the television the following Wednesday night. It's going to be tight, tense, and down to the wire.

[Stuttgart88]

I agree when totalfootball suggests that a higher average than 2 ppg is likely to be required across all the groups.

However, if you look at our group we have two quality teams, albeit potentially vulnerable, and of the next three - Slovakia, Ireland and Wales - each has made the playoffs recently enough so are obviously tough enough. Add in the "local derby" factors (us and Wales, the three central European teams) I think we could be looking at a group where the points are dispersed, not unlike our last campaign. And I think Cyprus may nick one or two home points this time.

Therefore I think 2ppg, or marginally less might be enough. Unless I'm bigging us, Slovakia & Wales up too much I don't think this'll be a group like the Holland/Czech/Romania group in WC06 qualification where Romania missed out on 25 points.

Ah, who knows anyway?

I think one or two good away wins will be important (so I'm not Brian Kerr!). Despite the Croker factor I think we are very unlikely to win all the crunch home games.

soccerc, I'm sorry but I'm afraid you'll have to work until you're 72, unless the Clondalkin Gazette goes global. Or maybe Stehpen Quinn, 5 times CL winner as captain of Barcelona will give you his biography rights.

[RogerMilla]

if we manage an away win against one for the four high seeded teams then it is doable , if we beat the germans or the czechs at home that will also be a big boost but i feel the slovakians and the welsh have it in them to ruin it for us , what with the czechs at home and germans away it will be interesting to see what the table is like at xmas...

[NeilMcD]

Fair play Stuttgart, its threads like this that make me log in time and time again into foot.ie. Fair play, great reading.

[Forever Dreamin]

5 Home wins (excluding Germany) away wins in Cyprus, San Marino = 21 points.

Three points from Germany H & A, Slovakia Cech & Wales away

THAT is POSSIBLE

Im going to book my flights to Basle again, 3rd time lucky in the kip!

[mypost]

Im going to book my flights to Basle again, 3rd time lucky in the kip!

Kip? :confused:

[beautifulrock]

good post and well researched. I expect us to lose one game, possibly Germany away but still feel 24 points is achievable. If Germany do beat us then we certainly want them to beat everyone else as well. Interesting and the excitement starts to grow as we embark on yet another adventure...

[Stuttgart88]

There's a small error in the first post: Romania came third on 2.08ppg (25 out of 12), not 2.5ppg as I said.

There were three 7 team (12 match) groups in WC06 qualifying:

The second placed teams in these 3 groups scored 2.25ppg (27 points, Czech Rep.) and 1.92 (23 points, both Turkley & Slovakia).

The following link shows the final outcomes in those groups:

http://fifaworldcup.yahoo.com/06/en/t/group/index.html?zone=eur

I'd contend that our group is more like the Ukraine/Turkey/Denmark/Greece/Albania group or maybe the Portugal/Slovakia/Russia/Estonia/Latvia group than the Holland/Czech/Romania/Finland/Macedonia group, so maybe, just maybe, 23 points will be enough.

[Stuttgart88]

I presume you mean 12 match (7 team) groups.Yes, of course. Sorry!

[youngirish]

To qualify I reckon we need the following to happen:

1. The entire German national squad to be wiped out in some freak travel accident most likely involving an airplane but a coach going off a cliff or something similar would be equally effective.

2. The Czech Republic to invade Slovakia and in the ensuing conflict both teams are to be banned from the competition by UEFA a la Yugoslavia in 92.

3. Cyprus to be overrun completely by the Turks resulting in a protest walkout by the majority of the players and the coaching staff of the national team

I reckon if this occurs it will be a toss up between us and Wales for the second spot in the group.

[mypost]

If Germany do beat us then we certainly want them to beat everyone else as well.

Oh no, we definitely don't want runaway winners either!! We had that in 1997, when Romania walked all over everyone in the qualifiers, and qualified in August. Only Cascarino's late equaliser in the last game of the group, stopped them from claiming the full 30 points from the campaign. And we still didn't qualify! I want us to be in a competitive group, thank you.

[NeilMcD]

Yeah but we finished 2nd in the group something that would be enough this time around. We went out in a play off to Belgium so a repeat of finishing second would do me thank you.

[theleprechaun]

forget second, we can win this group yet

[NeilMcD]

I know that, I am aiming for first but if somebody gave me 2nd now I would take it. 2 campaigns with not qualifying and it makes no difference how you get there as long as you do.

[RogerMilla]

I in no way believe we can win this group , we will need to give some startling performances to get second place , we are the 4th seeds , if we come second then stan will have done far more than earned his wages. It's going to be an interesting campaign , some big games , croke park , some great away trips but i just can't get myself believing we can top the group, hopefully we are in with a shout right to the death and nick that 2nd spot.
Robbie keane bringing his club form to international level and a rejuvenated Duff will be key. Doyle and mcgeady stepping into the frame would be a huge boost. and too right who cares how we get there , we just want to be at the top table - switzerland austria 08

[Saint Tom]

when put like that, I am far from believing we cant qualify

[Emmet]

If Duffer and Keane can stay injury-free and play to something approaching their potential I think we have a good chance of finishing second ... I still think centre midfield is a problem area for us though

[mjpcc]

I believe we still have a very limited squad.

We need a quality CB & LB
a CM - there are several suitors, but no one proven yet and
a FF - someone to partner Keane in attack. Yes - we have suitors but none proven better than Clinton yet and I do not think that is good enough.

Also, we need all our key players Given, Dunne, Finnan, S. Reid, Duff & Keane to stay fit and on form for every game.

I'm hoping for qualification - not expecting it.

[cavan_fan]

Second place guarantees qualification this time around. Fact.

I looked at the full qualifying campaigns for WC06, UEFA 2004, WC02 & and UEFA 2000 to see how many points per game was required to finish second. I couldn't be arsed going back further.

Here's the answer:

Average points per second placed team: 1.98
Median: 2.00
High: 2.40
Low: 1.63 (including England, naturally!)

So, on the basis of the above, 2 points per game (i.e., 24 from our 12 games) ought to secure second place and outright qualification.

In 16 out of the 36 groups observed (so 44% of the time), less than 2 points per game was good enough for second.

Only 3 times in the 4 campaigns / 36 groups was a team eliminated with at least 2 points per game (Romania came 3rd to Czech Rep & Holland on 2.5 ppg, Holland finished behind us & Portugal on 2.00ppg and Belgium also came third behind Croatia on exactly 2ppg. 1.92 was next highest third place).

Is the following points tally out of the question for Ireland?

Germany & Czech Republic together: 4 points
Slovakia: 4 points
Wales: 4 points
Cyprus: 6 points
San Marino: 6 points

Total: 24 points or 2 points per game

I mentioned above that 44% of the time less than 2 points per game was good enough for second. This was usually in what looked to me like tight groups with quite good 2, 3, 4 and 5 seeds. It looks pretty much like that to me in our current group.

My guess is that 22 or 23 will do the job.

You can debate among yourselves whether we'd like to see a runaway winner (Germany?) leaving the rest to scrap it out, or an even contest among all our main opponents.


In a reflective mode I was looking back at some of our views at the start of the campaign. In reality the second place team in the group will have 29 points, though that says more about the relative weaknesses of the other teams and I feel 24 might have been enough if we had taken more points off the Czechs but looking at above predicted points

Germany & Czech Republic together: 4 points

We only got 2 points and this reflects the fact we had no big result. Is till think a home win against the Germans would have kept Stan his job. It;s fair to say though that we didnt have any luck in these mathes. There is an argument that we got less than the performance deserved in all 4 matches, esp the 2 home games. Lesson for new manager: It's tough to qualify if you dont take points off your main rivals, need to get back to win at home draw away, not draw at home, lose away.

Slovakia: 4 points
And we got 4 points so well done us. Of course the Slovaks turned out to be weaker than expected, esp as the group went on and the 2 dropped points in Bratislava were prob the end for our hopes. Lesson for new manager: Slovakia are the sort of team we need to start beating away from home
Wales: 4 points
Again got what was required, though again a much weaker team than expected. The Welsh lineup on Saturday was below the standards of the Cypriot one. I hope we dont get any British teams next time. Lesson for next manager: Teach team to finish off matches. Learn how to timewaste from Italians.
Cyprus: 6 points
You may have heard this didnt go so well. 1 point from 6 is sh*te and single handedly lost Stan his job. This is what distinguished this campaing from Kerr's. In fairness Cyprus are a better side than Wales but we still have them in the San Marino/Andorra camp whcih is unfair. Lesson for new manager: Beat the poor teams 100% of the time. Learn from Sven's England reign.
San Marino: 6 points
Well we did get 6 points so that must have been ok....... In reality the San Marino performance was the lowest point in our recent history and ironically our one lucky result. What would have happened had we lost and Stan been sacked then??? The one thing that most irritated me about thsi match is that when we conceeded we were able to score within 5 mins, because we were trying. Lesson for new manager: There are easy games in international footbal but also sometimes lazy players. It's a bad mix. Also avoid TV3.

[Stuttgart88]

Our 1.42 points per game is atrocious even if it is good enough for 3rd place.

The runners up in England's group will have a minimum of 2.1 points per game.

Scotland came 3rd on 2 ppg. Northern Ireland will have a minimum of 1.67.

Most other 3rd place teams either got 2ppg or quite close to it.

[cavan_fan]

The odd thing is that what we thought was a tough group turned out to be an easy one. I cant remember was Stan appointed before the draw or after it?

[endabob1]

Apart from the top 2 our group was very, very weak and we failed to rise above the mediocre. Rather than look at us losing points to The Cechs & Germans we lost it in not being able to beat Cyprus either at home or away and in hindsight we should have been able to defeat Wales or Slovakia away.
I think in general our home form was ok (Cyprus excluded) but our inability to pick up points away from home is what cost us, 5 points away from home from that group is a disgrace.

[cavan_fan]

Sort of agree but I think we have also lost the ability to beat good teams at home. I know we talk about the 20 years since a half decent away win but it's a while since we won a competitive home match against a good team (Holland probably)

[Irish_Praha]

Sort of agree but I think we have also lost the ability to beat good teams at home. I know we talk about the 20 years since a half decent away win but it's a while since we won a competitive home match against a good team (Holland probably)

I agree, whatever happened to "win your home games and draw your away games" against your main rivals in the group? Instead this time against Germany and the CR we "drew our home games and lost our away ones" :o
Don't really know what my point is, apart from the fact that we were sh!te this time around.:rolleyes::D

[tetsujin1979]

The odd thing is that what we thought was a tough group turned out to be an easy one. I cant remember was Stan appointed before the draw or after it?
After the draw, but before the fixtures were sorted out, IIRC

[mypost]

After the draw, but before the fixtures were sorted out, IIRC

IIRC, it was before the draw was made. His first quote after the draw, was how he was "going off to see BR" :rolleyes: for his thoughts. Iirc, the draw was at the end of January, he got the job just before.

[tetsujin1979]

IIRC, it was before the draw was made. His first quote after the draw, was how he was "going off to see BR" :rolleyes: for his thoughts. Iirc, the draw was at the end of January, he got the job just before.
Yeah, you're right, the draw was on the 27 January: http://www.independent.ie/sport/soccer/everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-euro-2008-draw-119701.html
Looks like Staunton was appointed around the 10th: http://www.independent.ie/sport/soccer/fais-high-hopes-for-bobby-and-steve-116775.html

[CollegeTillIDie]

Stuttgart 88

It boils down to this. Stop conceding soft goals to relative minnows or anyone else for that matter!
Sh1t defending was at the root of most of Ireland's problems. And defending starts with your forwards!

[Stuttgart88]

College Till I Die

Thanks, I've taken note and planted it firmly in my brain.

I also think having a competitive central midfield is crucial to "filter out" potential attacks before they reach your defence.

[CollegeTillIDie]

I also think having a competitive central midfield is crucial to "filter out" potential attacks before they reach your defence.

Correct :ball:

[paul_oshea]

I also think ye lot were awful wrong as usual. Nowhere near the required points.....

This draw away win at home crap is fine, but we cant do it, so dont be going out with that mindset, go out to win every game. If the next manager comes in and says that ye lot will be agreeing exactly, and we will end up in 3rd or 4th again. Go out to win all games, it will get us further in the long run. Winning at home drawing away puts too much pressure on us, when one thing or another goes wrong (which it has and will )i.e. like losing away or needing a must win game at home etc...

[Stuttgart88]

Just for info, here is the "what was needed to qualify" across all the groups, plus the points tally for the third placed teams:

Played Points PPG
Poland 14 28 2.000
Portugal 14 27 1.929
Finland 14 24 1.714

Greece 12 31 2.583
Turkey 12 24 2.000
Norway 12 23 1.917

Italy 12 29 2.417
France 12 26 2.167
Scotland 12 24 2.000

Czechs 12 29 2.417
Germany 12 27 2.250
Ireland 12 17 1.417

Croatia 12 29 2.417
Russia 12 24 2.000
England 12 23 1.917

Spain 12 28 2.333
Sweden 12 26 2.167
N.Ireland 12 20 1.667

Romania 12 29 2.417
Holland 12 26 2.167
Bulgaria 12 25 2.083

[Rebel11]

For a start we need a Captain thats plays like one. Keep it well away from Robbie anyway.

We also need a manger not is not El Tel please God.

[endabob1]

Looking at Stutgarts stats winning at home and drawing away is the minimum requirement. Only Portugal qualified with a (points equivalent) record worse than that & 2 teams ended up missing out with that (points equivalent) record or better in Bulgarias case.