Ireland drop two more places

[sligoman]

Steve Staunton’s Republic of Ireland side has dropped a further two places down the official Fifa rankings list, published on Wednesday.

The drop continues Ireland’s plummet down the rankings, from 14th place as recently as August to a lowest placing in almost five years.

The rankings slip mirrors the fall in seeding as a result of a lowly fourth place finish in World Cup qualifying Group Four – Ireland go into next week’s European Championship qualifiers draw as one of the fourth seeds, making a difficult draw a relative certainty for Staunton’s first competitive campaign as manager.

Elsewhere in the rankings, Brazil remain clear at the top, ahead of the Czech Republic in second and Netherlands in third.

England are unchanged in ninth spot, Scotland steady in 60th, Wales drop one to 72nd and Northern Ireland are motionless in 103rd.

The biggest movers over a relatively quiet month are Qatar (up six to 89th), Uganda (up five to 96th), India (up nine to 118th) and Bangladesh (up 17 places to 143rd) – the last-mentioned pair climbing as a result of the SAFF tournament, in which India defeated their neighbours in the final.

http://www.eleven-a-side.com/offthefield/irish_soccer_detail.asp?newsid=20786

[eirebhoy]

Why do FIFA have to keep their method of calculations a secret? Nobody played in the last month. How do some teams lose a point and some don't? Costa Rica gained a point ffs.

http://fifa.com/en/mens/statistics/index/0,2548,All-Jan-2006,00.html

Why is it such a big secret?

[Superhoops]

Why do FIFA have to keep their method of calculations a secret? Nobody played in the last month. How do some teams lose a point and some don't? Costa Rica gained a point ffs.

http://fifa.com/en/mens/statistics/index/0,2548,All-Jan-2006,00.html

Why is it such a big secret?
No secret, its all on their website http://www.fifa.com/en/mens/statistics/rank/procedures/0,2540,3,00.html

[pineapple stu]

Nobody played in the last month. How do some teams lose a point and some don't? Costa Rica gained a point ffs.
FIFA's website also notes that 21 games were played last month. Also, you lose points as old games drop out of the system.

[dancinpants]

How do you write an article about the Irish seeding without mentioning the seed? :confused:

Strange that Switzerland are still 10 places behind us, despite having knocked us out of the last 2 qualifying campaigns.

[Roverstillidie]

surely thats brian kerrs ireland?
but unfair to pin this on stan....

[eirebhoy]

surely thats brian kerrs ireland?
but unfair to pin this on stan....
The drop down the rankings was caused from losing against Italy and France, we were 14th going into those games.

Superhoops - I read that link before. It tells you the basics but its still impossible to work out how many points Ireland would get for beating Sweden 2-1 next month. If they're weighted over 2 or 4 years its even more confusing.

[geysir]

Our slide down the rankings is furthur proof of ??? . it just means that the results of Brian Kerr's Ireland "on closer examination" (as Brian would say) were poor scorers on the FIFA rankings and the good results that we got under Mc Carthy depreciated as the years move on.

In order to calculate exactly how many points we would get for beating Sweden 2-1 we would also need to know exactly this unknown factor,
"These (points)are divided according to the relative strength of the teams involved in the match"
We would need to know exactly how many bonus points a lower ranked team gets for beating a team ranked say 10 places higher.

but its still impossible to work out how many points Ireland would get for beating Sweden 2-1 next month. If they're weighted over 2 or 4 years its even more confusing.
The depreciation has nothing to do with how many points Ireland would gain with a 2-1 victory.
Depreciation is a fixed calculation to determine the loss in value of points which were won from 1-8 years ago
Depreciation is just a mathematical calculation but it is unknown because who in their right minds would want to go to all that work when FIFA do it for you every month.

[Stuttgart88]

Our slide down the rankings is furthur proof
I blame Staunton. We're going backwrads already.

I read the calculation method in full a few months ago & I think I posted a summary. Basically it's all a load of talk. It's not strictly algorithmic. FIFA still has "discretion" to rank teams as it suits them. The rules, even as spelt out, are too opaque to stand up to any audit.

[geysir]

Why not post the summary again.
There had to be some arbitration used with the rankings with the emergence of new nations. Apart from I don't think Sepp Blater is flogging a higher ranking in exchange for votes.

[Stuttgart88]

Why not post the summary again.
OK, taken from the "Euro 2008 Seedings Update (Depressing Reading)" thread from about 5 or 6 months ago I posted:

There's a big difference between the way the UEFA seeding co-efficient & the FIFA rankings are calculated.

As eirebhoy's table shows, UEFA simply averages the points per game in the previous two full qualification campaigns (so in this case WC06 qualification & Euro2004 qualification) to determine the seedings, or pots,for the next competition's qualification groups

FIFA's ranking system is far more complicated with different weightings attached to friendlies, qualification games, finals games etc., goals scored, degree of difficulty of the opposition, home or away etc. It also takes into account games going back over a number of years (8 I think) though the previous 12 months' results are given a higher weighting. Therefore a series of good results 13 months ago no longer have the same contribution to your current standing as they did in the last published rankings.

It's all explained here http://www.fifa.com/en/mens/statisti...2540,3,00.html though it's pretty complicated.

They say they have a computer programme that works it all out but it wouldn't surprse me if they fiddled the rankings (or the variables that contribute to the calculations) to suit the WC Finals Group Seedings that they want!

I think the WC Finals Group Seeds are determined at least partially, if not fully, by the FIFA rankings. Is this right?

Also, what system is used to determine the pots for the WC qualification groups? The same as UEFA's?

[Risteard]

So what is our ranking?
12 posts later . . .

[geysir]

All the umpteen factors used to calculate ranking points won in a game are clear and transparent except for 'degree of difficulty of the opposition'. It is not clear to me how they work that out in order to calculate bonus points.
Depreciation of assets (points won) is easy enough to understand but a slog to calculate without a programme.
With the UEFA table we are up and down like yo yo's. Reflecting in our sudden fall from grace in the EURO seedings. At least with the FIFA rankings we have a slow deliberate decline. (Which is understandable if you "examine our results very carefully").

In the thread to do with the WC seedings when we optimistically flirted with thoughts of our WC seedings, possibly Neil or someone else accurately wrote that FIFA would see who gets there first and adjust/juggle the criteria to ensure their select group got the first seeds. The FIFA rankings were just one of a nr. of criteria used to ensure that happened.

[Tired&Emotional]

26.

http://www.fifa.com/en/mens/statistics/index/0,2548,All-Jan-2006,00.html

[geysir]

So what is our ranking?
12 posts later . . .
We are ranked 26th in the world.
But 15th of the European teams.

[Stuttgart88]

All the umpteen factors used to calculate ranking points won in a game are clear and transparent except for 'degree of difficulty of the opposition'.
Exactly. They're trying to present it as being clear & precise, but if they can decide "degree of difficulty" on a purely subjective basis they can fiddle the rankings as they wish.

You're too trusting Geysir.

[deadman]

So what is our ranking?
12 posts later . . .

now i'm an 11-a-side fan ... but a story about our fifa ranking without our fifa ranking ... com'on

[Ash]

I totally blame Staunton for this ... not a wet weekend in the job
and already we're slipping down the ladder. He should be sacked :p

[geysir]

It may be a spin worthy of Brian Kerr as regards our rank in European football but I would take our 15th place in FIFA's ranking over our 23rd placement in the Uefa table. My vote goes to Sepp.

[Stuttgart88]

Points win prizes. That's what UEFA makes its judgment on and it's hard to argue with it.

As we were rising UP the FIFA rankings we were dropping DOWN in the UEFA co-efficient. Which was a more accurate reflection of what was happening the national team?

I'd rather beat Israel or Albania away in a qualifier than beat Portugal at home in a friendly. FIFA wouldn't care so much, but to UEFA it's everything. I accept that breeding a winning habit is important, but an intelligent fan can take positives from a friendly defeat if the performance is good, or a debutant plays well etc.. My vote goes to Lennart, not Sepp!

[Stuttgart88]

Just thought I'd pop another post on. I was on 1966 posts and I'd hate to see my name associated with that year! 1967 was by far a better year.

[geysir]

Of course it does call for a suspension of rationality re FIFA's ranking procedure in accepting close to a 2nd seeding from Fifa rather than a 4th seeding from Uefa's ice bath of reality.
If you took away friendlies out of the FIFA equation it might be an interesting model. (note the non-commitment)

[eirebhoy]

The depreciation has nothing to do with how many points Ireland would gain with a 2-1 victory.
Depreciation is a fixed calculation to determine the loss in value of points which were won from 1-8 years ago
Depreciation is just a mathematical calculation but it is unknown because who in their right minds would want to go to all that work when FIFA do it for you every month.
I really don't understand the need for this. We win a match in 2002 and points get taken off us in 2006? That seems a bit silly to me. We've lost 5 points since November having not even played a match. Its ridiculous.

[NeilMcD]

Lads I think we can basically see that the FIFA Ranking System is a load of ****** and the Uefa one is much better. I dont think there is anybody except Sepp Blatter who would disagree with that.

[Dublin12]

Just thought I'd pop another post on. I was on 1966 posts and I'd hate to see my name associated with that year! 1967 was by far a better year.

Aren't you lucky you weren't born in that year unlike some:o

[pineapple stu]

I really don't understand the need for this. We win a match in 2002 and points get taken off us in 2006? That seems a bit silly to me. We've lost 5 points since November having not even played a match. Its ridiculous.
If you get points for matches, you have to lose them sometime. Sure UCD got 33 points taken off us there a few weeks ago when we were in ninth spot in the eL rankings - ridiculous! A game now has to impact on our current ranking, but a game ten years ago can't really. There has to be a way of moving that game's strength from very important to negligible.

People who give out overly about the rankings haven't taken the time to understand how they work. No, they're not completely accurate, but they do give a good general idea of how the teams rank (though I do think they over-rate friendly games).

[eirebhoy]

If you get points for matches, you have to lose them sometime. Sure UCD got 33 points taken off us there a few weeks ago when we were in ninth spot in the eL rankings - ridiculous! A game now has to impact on our current ranking, but a game ten years ago can't really. There has to be a way of moving that game's strength from very important to negligible.

People who give out overly about the rankings haven't taken the time to understand how they work. No, they're not completely accurate, but they do give a good general idea of how the teams rank (though I do think they over-rate friendly games).
Oh right, I get it now. Its actually a silly question now that I know the answer. :) So the top team in the rankings will stay in or around the 840 mark?

[Tired&Emotional]

People who give out overly about the rankings haven't taken the time to understand how they work.

Sorrrry! Can't take a week out of work to study this, better things to do!! I obviously haven't got the brain NASA would be glad to have.....:p :eek: ;)

[pineapple stu]

Oh right, I get it now. It's actually a silly question now that I know the answer. :) So the top team in the rankings will stay in or around the 840 mark?
Dunno about that, but the main point is that Ireland aren't suddenly four points weaker because we didn't play a game - the rankings are more of a trend than an exact snapshot. Take them with a pinch of salt, but they don't deserve to be dismissed entirely.


Sorrrry! Can't take a week out of work to study this, better things to do!! I obviously haven't got the brain NASA would be glad to have.....
Well you'll never understand them with that attitude! :p