View Full Version : Relegation run-in
Passive
15/10/2005, 10:50 AM
As it stands:
Rovers: 28 games, 26 points
Pats: 28 games, 25 points
Waterford: 27 games, 20 points
Harps: 27 games, 18 points
SRFC:
Bray (a)
Pats (a)
Cork (h)
Waterford (h)
UCD(a)
Pats:
Waterford (a)
Cork (a)
Rovers (h)
Derry (a)
Longford (h)
Harps:
Cork (h)
Longford (h)
Shels (a)
UCD (h)
Drogheda (a)
Bray (h)
Waterford:
UCD (a)
Pats (h)
Derry (a)
Cork (h)
Rovers (a)
Drogheda (h)
Harps and Waterford definitely have the hardest run-in, imo. I think we have the best run-in - we have to play two of the bottom three, plus UCD, Bray (both beatable) and Cork. Even if we only get six points from our last five games (that would be a poor taking, imo), Harps would have to get 14 points (four wins and two draws - i.e. not likely) and Waterford would need 12 points (four wins - again, not likely).
By no means safe, but I fancy our chances of holding fourth from bottom (or "9th", as I prefer to call it). I think it's between Harps and Waterford to decide who goes straight down and who beats Cobh in the play-off.
chippie0001
15/10/2005, 12:24 PM
I think Harps are down, I just cannot see them getting enough points in the remaining games to stay up. Last night they looked very bad and we are not playing well but every time we attacked they looked dodgy.
As for the playoff spot it could well depend on the result of the waterford v Pats game, a real 6 pointer. If Waterford can win that game with Dolan behind them I would not like to be in Pats shoes. However I think the premier team will have too much for the first division side so only Harps to go down for me.
The Stars
15/10/2005, 12:47 PM
well if it was the case that Sligo are in the playoffs(please god were not) then I think we could easily beat the premier division team and the same goes for cobh.
dcfcsteve
15/10/2005, 12:48 PM
Harps and Derry have signed a pact with the devil. We'll take 3pts off Waterford in our game with them, and in-return the Harps are promised to take 1 point in their game with Cork..... :p
sligoman
15/10/2005, 1:42 PM
I think it's between Harps and Waterford to decide who goes straight down and who beats Cobh in the play-off.Cobh will be no push-overs. Cobh could easily beat Harps or Waterford if it happens;)
Dr.Nightdub
15/10/2005, 1:56 PM
The three critical games on which it all hinges are
Waterford v us
Us v Rovers
Rovers v Waterford
Waterford have to catch either us or Rovers and realistically, the only way they're gonna do that is by winning one or both of these games. Even then, the game between us and Rovers is a potential get-out-of-jail card for either team.
bigmac
15/10/2005, 2:28 PM
Waterford have to catch either us or Rovers and realistically, the only way they're gonna do that is by winning one or both of these games. Even then, the game between us and Rovers is a potential get-out-of-jail card for either team.
I agree. I think Harps would be looking to catch us and get the play-off spot but I'd be really worried about a playoff to be honest. If Waterford manage to get a result out of UCD, then there'll only be at most 4 points between Waterford and Pats come the game in the RSC. Realistically, I don't expect any of the four teams to take points from the top two, but you never know with the Waterford Cork game, I never expected to get a point in the Cross earlier this season.
I think Rovers are safe enough, as Passive says, they have an easier run in than the others, and for that reason I'll be cheering them on against Pats. With the three big games, if any team manages to win both of their big ones then I think they'll be safe. Hopefully it'll be the Blues!
ccfcgirl
15/10/2005, 2:52 PM
I think Rovers are the safest especially if they beat Pats away.Pats and Waterford both have to play Cork City and Derry City which will be tuff.
bluemovie
15/10/2005, 5:44 PM
Passive, relax. Rovers aren't in the relegation battle. To me, they look like they could get points every game they play. The only reason I'd include Pats is because they're in poor form and we could potentially be ahead of them after next Friday. I don't see Harps getting more than 27 points...ie 9 more. That means 8 points would get us a play-off....at least 4 of which need to come this week. Last night was a setback. I'll admit virtually every time we've lost that we haven't been good enough, but last night we were mugged. One shot on target from Bray (looked like he charged the clearance down with his hand) and an outstanding performance from the keeper. Fair play to Bray, they were more clinical and punished us. Hopefully we'll bounce back on Monday in UCD, but we always have trouble against them. In an ideal world, I'd like Harps, Pats (probably the two teams I hate the least) and ourselves to stay up, but these are difficult times so f*** them both!
In an ideal world, I'd like Harps, Pats (probably the two teams I hate the least) and ourselves to stay up, but these are difficult times so f*** them both!
You sound like a proper football fan to me. Anyone who describes other teams in relation to how much they hate them is OK by me...
As for our run in, I'm honestly bricking it. I can't see us scoring a goal so I'm hoping that we at least draw in waterford, pick up the odd point and waterford don't pick up 5.
Stevo Da Gull
16/10/2005, 1:38 PM
we were mugged. One shot on target from Bray (looked like he charged the clearance down with his hand) and an outstanding performance from the keeper. Fair play to Bray, they were more clinical and punished us.
Yeah I'll agree with all of that except for the handball claim, players appeals seemed half-hearted, as did the appeals from the fans. I was in the Shed so I dunno for sure, people behind the goal would have had the best view, I'll reserve judgement till EL Weekly.
I know how you feel (from experience), its sickening to lose a game like that but football aint about who has most of the possesion or who makes the most chances its about who takes their chances. It's harsh and a kick in the pants at times but thats football for you and when a keeper performs like that you can only admire (and curse him if its against you).
If you continue to perform like that (and score) I dont think that you'll finish bottom but thats a bit of an understatement- not that it makes you feel any better I'm sure:(
Rovers aren't in the relegation battle.
I wouldn't be as sure of that....
mypost
16/10/2005, 10:55 PM
As it stands:
Rovers: 28 games, 26 points
Pats: 28 games, 25 points
Waterford: 27 games, 20 points
Harps: 27 games, 18 points
SRFC:
Bray (a) :mad:
Pats (a)
Cork (h)
Waterford (h)
UCD(a)
It's v Bray (h) :rolleyes:
I think the current positions will remain as they are. I think we're more or less safe, we need just a couple more points, and the run-in isn't too bad to get them.
Harps look doomed as they can't play us again, the only team they beat. :rolleyes: I think Pats will get at least a point from Waterford, and even though they have the hardest run-in, [(a) Cork, (a) Derry], I don't think Waterford will be able to catch them. But, this is the second season that Pats have been in this battle, if it continues in future years, they will eventually go down.
Passive
17/10/2005, 1:09 PM
It's v Bray (h) :rolleyes:
My God, I made a typo. How will you ever forgive me?
mypost
17/10/2005, 1:18 PM
[RE: Bray (a):]My God, I made a typo. How will you ever forgive me?
I know you probably hate playing at Dalymount, but we have no home game for 4 weeks. Don't you think we have enough away games to play?
Cobh will be no push-overs. Cobh could easily beat Harps or Waterford if it happens;)
this man talks sense!:D
NY Hoop
17/10/2005, 2:01 PM
I know you probably hate playing at Dalymount, but we have no home game for 4 weeks. Don't you think we have enough away games to play?
4 weeks? We're playing Bray on the 28th............
Cant see us being dragged into it. Harps or Waterford will go down. As long as CHF are not involved in anything to do with promotion the league will be happy.
KOH
I think that if Waterford United my team can pick up a point or even 3 from UCD tonight and then beat Pats Friday night we've a good chance of finishing out of bottom 2.St Pats haven't won in about 10 and seem to be going backwards.Rovers should be ok I think.Finn Harps look doomed.
Ps Pats fans How is John Frost playing for ye?
bluemovie
17/10/2005, 2:55 PM
You sound like a proper football fan to me. Anyone who describes other teams in relation to how much they hate them is OK by me...
Thanks, but if I can correct myself - in an ideal world, I'd like all 11 other teams to be relegated in one go.:p
WeAreRovers
17/10/2005, 3:00 PM
Definitely think we're safe and Soccerbot seem to agree -
http://www.soccerbot.com/fai/tables/irprem2005.htm
As long as we don't lose to Waterford and Pats we'll be alright. I'm hoping and praying that Pats go down (and Harps stay up). If we stayed up in the worst season in our history and Pats went down I don't think I'd ever stop laughing.
KOH
blutil
17/10/2005, 3:07 PM
soccerbot prediciton
1 Cork City 33 75
2 Derry City 33 75
3 Shelbourne 33 63
4 Longford Town 33 49
5 Drogheda United 33 47
6 Bohemians 33 46
7 UCD 33 37
8 Shamrock Rovers 33 34
9 Bray Wanderers 33 32
10 St Patricks Athletic 33 27
11 Waterford United 33 24
12 Finn Harps 33 20
I'll take that. do cork win the title on alphabetical order seeing as there's no goal differences ?
bigmac
17/10/2005, 3:30 PM
I'll take that. do cork win the title on alphabetical order seeing as there's no goal differences ?
Where's your sense of ambition :D I'm looking for a glorious tenth place at least!
Dr.Nightdub
17/10/2005, 8:04 PM
Ps Pats fans How is John Frost playing for ye?
Storming. Has already become a firm favourite and some people are talking about him as captain material for next season.
chippie0001
17/10/2005, 9:30 PM
Storming. Has already become a firm favourite and some people are talking about him as captain material for next season.
After tonights result, he might make a good captain in Division one next year. Some six pointer in the next game now. With 3 points between 3 teams the play off spot in now up for grabs. :eek:
Patrick Dunne
17/10/2005, 10:02 PM
... still holds advantage in playoffs. They tend to come out on top.
I believe that they are more battle-hardened having had to fight and scrap for points against top sides.
I can see us picking up more than 2 more points from now until the end of the season
bigmac
18/10/2005, 9:44 AM
Storming. Has already become a firm favourite and some people are talking about him as captain material for next season.
Yeah, I think he'll be welcomed back with open arms :D
bluemovie
18/10/2005, 12:27 PM
I wouldn't take anything for granted, but last night has me believing the Blues are staying up. Massive celebrations at the end. A lot will depend on Friday v Pats. Defeat at home combined with Harps beating Cork or Longford would put us right back in trouble. I certainly feel a lot more confident than a month ago when the 5-0 thumping in Tolka and Harps beating Rovers put us bottom for the first time. At that stage, it looked like any First Division team would beat us even if we sneaked a play-off. The team are showing much more confidence and hunger now. I was talking to Frosty last night and confidence isn't a word that springs to mind about Pats right now. Friday will be crucial.
As for the play-off, in the last ten years the First Divison team has only won once.....not even going to mention who was involved:o . Sligo, Cobh and DC fans seem confident about their prospects. Be warned, history is against ye. Look at how promoted teams usually struggle....there is still a gap between the Premier and the First and most First Division players are in that division for a reason.
Dodge
29/10/2005, 11:50 AM
How it stands now
8. Pats p30 pts30 gd-8
9. UCD p29 pts30 gd-14
10. Waterford p30 pts27 gd-21
11. Rovers p29 pts26 gd-14
12. Harps p30 pts21 gd-16
Games left;
Pats
h v Rovers
a V Derry
h v Longford
UCD
h v Derry
a v Harps
a v Longford
h v Rovers
Waterford
h v Cork
a v Rovers
h v Drogheda
Rovers
a v Pats
h v Cork
h v Waterford
a v UCD
Harps
h v UCD
a v Drogheda
h v Bray
Gonna be tight. Rovers to play 3 of the other teams involved. Have a feeling those will be the deciding games
sligoman
29/10/2005, 2:13 PM
Definitely think we're safe
As long as we don't lose to Waterford and Pats we'll be alright.What about losing to Bray then?:confused:
BTW soccerbot now see it as
8 St Patricks Athletic 33 33
9 UCD 33 33
10 Shamrock Rovers 33 30
11 Waterford United 33 28
12 Finn Harps 33 23
Can't see waterford only picking up one point
Dr.Nightdub
29/10/2005, 6:17 PM
If we beat Rovers next week and Harps beat UCD (both by no means as unthinkable as last night's results), then Rovers might not be only worrying about the playoff spot.
pineapple stu
29/10/2005, 6:29 PM
If we beat Rovers next week and Harps beat UCD (both by no means as unthinkable as last night's results), then Rovers might not be only worrying about the playoff spot.
If you're implying that we may get dragged into things, we're way ahead of you... The two Cup defeats seem to have knocked the stuffing right out of us - our defence in particular has been very poor lately.:( I'd hope we can beat either Harps or Longford, but I really don't want to be facing Rovers on the last day needing a result to avoid the play-off...
That said, I do think the Premier Division side will win the play-offs. No team has been outstanding in the First and even the top few have fairly poor records.
Dr.Nightdub
29/10/2005, 7:49 PM
Stu, what I meant was that Rovers might be worrying about more than just the playoff spot - i.e. the automatic drop could come into the frame for them as well.
As regards your interpretation...welcome to the madhouse! :D
pineapple stu
29/10/2005, 7:57 PM
Hadn't thought about that...much as I like the trip to Ballybofey, I'm quite happy to write Harps off as it means the play-off at worst for us, which I'd be confident about winning having seen the teams last year!
bluemovie
30/10/2005, 1:22 PM
I really didn't think Rovers or (especially) UCD would be dragged into this, but 10 points from 15 for the Blues brings them into the equation. In an ideal world now, Rovers go down and UCD lose a play-off ( i kinda like Harps and Pats). Relegation-fighting years are great. You can go 18 games without a win and still pull through.
bigmac
31/10/2005, 6:58 AM
Can't see waterford only picking up one point
Hope you're right. Ten points from five games is as good a run as anyone is on at the moment. Could go either way though. 6 points clear of Harps with 3 to play looks a lot healthier than it did a few weeks ago.
CollegeTillIDie
31/10/2005, 8:46 AM
Lads
UCD got dragged into this by winning ONE game in their last TWELVE and losing six of the remaining ones.
bigmac
31/10/2005, 9:33 AM
Lads
UCD got dragged into this by winning ONE game in their last TWELVE and losing six of the remaining ones.
Still though, with Longford (2 points from last 7 games) Harps and Rovers still to play, UCD should be alright. Could only be relegated on goal difference, and that's assuming Harps win their last 3 games. The danger for the premier team in the playoff will be if they go into it in freefall, then it might be hard to turn it around. It's too close to call though, and next weekend should clear things up a bit.
UCD and Pats could pretty much assure their survival with wins against Rovers or Harps, but a win for Rovers would keep it really tight. Harps could be relegated if Rovers and UCD win, and Waterford will be looking at their last two games as definitely winnable. Hard to know with the Cork game, but i'd happily take a point out of it at this stage. The big advantage other teams down there have is Waterford's awful goal difference - with little hope of catching the other teams, it's a one-point handicap.
My prediction at the moment is Harps to go down, with Rovers getting the play-off spot.
Another defeat for UCD, plus another -2 for goal difference...
WeAreRovers
01/11/2005, 11:18 AM
What about losing to Bray then?:confused:
It wasn't losing to Bray that dragged us back in it was the bizzarro world results from Cork and Derry. One of our lads is a bookie and he reckoned that those two results would have been priced at 150-1. :eek:
The good thing is that Rovers/Pats on Friday is a huge game now. Our derbies have been quiet enough over the last few seasons but Friday will be the first really big Dublin derby this season - ie. with something actually riding on it rather than just age old hatred. Bring it on.
KOH
pineapple stu
01/11/2005, 12:36 PM
Another defeat for UCD, plus another -2 for goal difference...
Much better performance though. If we play like that against Harps and Longford, we'll win both games.
Course, we won't play like that against either Harps or Longford...:(
Réiteoir
01/11/2005, 12:51 PM
I wouldn't want to see St Pats go down tbh - such a sad state the club is in.
From winning the Championship in 2001-2002 to be in major trouble this season - a sad state of affairs
Been in relegation trouble 3 out the last 4 years. Now that new to us. We're one of them (like Rovers and Waterford) that if we just stay up this year....
Rovers destiny in their own hands. Hard to see Harps staying up.
pineapple stu
01/11/2005, 6:26 PM
Everyone's destiny (apart from Harps) is in their own hands.
Have to say, from a neutral's point of view, this has to be one of the most exciting seasons ever? Two teams - neither of whom has won the league in the last ten years or so - neck and neck at the top and down to meet on the last day. Shels coming up with a great run of form if they slip up (and yet to meet one of the teams). At the bottom, four teams scrabbling to avoid the play-offs. Waterford staging a miraculous comeback. Rovers and UCD - who had looked safe at one stage - in trouble. Compare that to the Premiership...
As it stand now...
8. Pats p31 pts33 gd-6
9. UCD p30 pts30 gd-16
10. Waterford p31 pts28 gd-21
11. Rovers p30 pts26 gd-16
12. Harps p30 pts21 gd-16
Games left;
Pats
a V Derry
h v Longford
UCD
a v Harps
a v Longford
h v Rovers
Waterford
a v Rovers
h v Drogheda
Rovers
h v Cork
h v Waterford
a v UCD
Harps
h v UCD
a v Drogheda
h v Bray
Last night's win guarantees our safety. Its complicated but the others all paying each other, they all can't get enough points to overtake us. If Harps won tonight they have a chance of overhauling Rovers...
Passive
05/11/2005, 10:03 AM
Pat's are safe and we're in big trouble, there's no doubt about that.
A lot rests on tonight's fixture between Harps and UCD, there's probably no point in commenting until we have a result from that. If Harps win, they go within two points of us (albeit with an extra game played), but if they lose then I think that's them gone.
If UCD win, that'll be them safe, leaving it between Rovers and Waterford for the play-off spot, which basically means next Friday's game is winner takes all.
My nerves are shot.
Dodge
05/11/2005, 10:18 AM
2 weeks ago we were 1-0 down in Waterford. If we hadn't have equalised, I honestly think we'd be relegated. Two wins later and everyone's delirious... Waterford are on a great run of form but next weeks game is a definite cup final and all the cliches will apply...
I think Harps are still going down with Waterford in the play off. For some reason I can see Rovers pulling out everything for that game (although they didn't last night for an equally important game)
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