If we all finish on 19 points?

[tricky_colour]

What happens if we beat, the Swiss, and the Swiss beat France
and the minnows games go as expected.
That puts France, Ireland and the Swiss all on 19 points.
It's not that likely an outcome, the home teams winning.

As I understand it France go above us, as they beat us,
however the Swiss go above France as they beat them
then we go above the Swiss (and top the group) because
we beat the Swiss :D

[eirebhoy]

Its a mini-group of 3 teams.

France: Played 4 - Won 1 - Drew 2 - Lost 1
Ireland: Played 4 - Won 1 - Drew 2 - Lost 1
Swiss: Played 4 - Won 1 - Drew 2 - Lost 1

Which means it goes down to goal difference between the teams. at the moment France have +1, Ireland have -1, Swiss have 0. If France get beaten 1-0, they'll have a goal difference of 0 and Swiss will have +1. That means a 2-0 win for us against the Swiss would put us top of the group and on our way to Germany.

Basically (presuming we beat Cyprus) if the Swiss beat France, as long as we beat the Swiss by more goals than they beat France we will win the group.

Qualification is still in our own hands. That is my understanding, correct me if I'm wrong.

[Colbert Report]

yes, you've got it right but the odds are WAY in Frances favour. I don't see the Swiss beating them.

[tricky_colour]

Did you see N Ireland beating England?
The Swiss beating France is not out of question, actually the odds
are 100/30 and I have seen a few horses come in at that price.
Wouldn't be too surprised if it was a draw though, then the Swiss would
need to beat us at home as they did last time round.
France 8/9 draw 23/19

Anyway at least we have a chance of automatic qualifiction if a couple of results go our way.

[finlma]

Wouldn't be too surprised if it was a draw though, then the Swiss would need to beat us at home as they did last time round.


Incorrect - they'd only need to draw with us in Landsdowne.

[Cosmo]

yes, you've got it right but the odds are WAY in Frances favour. I don't see the Swiss beating them.

I wouldnt be surprised to see switzerland get a draw against france. (btw sorry for going off topic but what station and time is this match on?)

[as_i_say]

check out yesterdays times-mary hannigan has a bit on all the qualification outcomes

[eirebhoy]

I wouldnt be surprised to see switzerland get a draw against france. (btw sorry for going off topic but what station and time is this match on?)
Setanta.

[Cosmo]

Setanta.

Bo**ox :( - not on eurosport too by any chance i wonder?

[eirebhoy]

Bo**ox :( - not on eurosport too by any chance i wonder?
Belgium v Spain on Eurosport.

[bohysingreen]

Both games are on Setanta but I think the Ireland game is also on Sky sports.
I cannot see any other result than a draw between France & Switzerland.
Both teams will be happy with a draw with France knowing a draw & a win
in their last two games will be enough. And I think the Swiss will also settle
for two draws in their final two games knowing it will be enough for the play off spot

[elroy]

Incorrect - they'd only need to draw with us in Landsdowne.


Crap only realised that now, thought they would need a win. Basically they'll come here defend and counter attach if thats the case, dont like the sound of that.
Best case scenario is a french win imo, means both sides would need the 3 points here (assuming we have beaten Cyprus) and their confidence would be shot after losing to France.
Although France without Henry, Trez and maybe even ZZ, could chance the Swiss could do it.

[finlma]

I think a draw in the France Switzerland game is the worst result for us. That way France will win the group and Switzerland will come over here needing a draw. If Switzerland beat France then Switzerland will still come only needing a draw but knowing a win will get them through automatically and they may go for it. If they loose they come over knowing they have to win.

To summarise I think a draw is the worst result.

[OwlsFan]

Incorrect - they'd only need to draw with us in Landsdowne.

.......................P W D L F .A ..GD PTS
1 Switzerland.... 8 4. 4 0 17 6.. 11 .16
2 France.......... 8 4 .4 0 ..9 1... 8..16
3 Israel............ 9 3 .6 0 13 9 ...4 .15
4 Rep of Ireland. 8 3 .4 1 11 5... 6..13
5 Cyprus............8 1.1. 6 8 15. -7.. 4
6 Faroe Islands.. 9 0.1 .8. 3 25.-22. 1

Not quite true because if the Israelis beat the Faroes by 7 goals (unlikely) and the Swiss draw their last two games they'd have the same goal difference as the Swiss and the same points.

Note that Cyprus are only -7 goal difference so they haven't been stuffed by anyone yet. It will be tough going in Cyprus.

[Stuttgart88]

It's worth pointing out (well it is if you're a numbers geek like me) that 6 points may not be enough for even second place.

If Switzerland bts France 2-1 and we beat Switzerland 1-0 we'll need to beat Cyprus by at least the same margin as France beat them. But France are at home to Cyprus so this'd be unlikely.

If we beat Swiss 1-0 and Swiss bt France 1-0 we'd need a 5 goal margin in Cyprus to win the group. If we beat Cyprus 6-2 it'd be a play-off at a neutral venue between us & the Swiss I think!

Regardless of the winning margin in Cyprus, if we bt Switzerland by more than they beat the French we win the group.

Any win in Cyprus followed by a 2 goal win over Switzerland must get us at least second.

And if I was Israeli I wouldn't be feeling too confident.

[OwlsFan]

And if I was Israeli I wouldn't be feeling too confident.

Yes, the Israelis are pretty much out of it unless there are some bizarre results. We could be out of it by Saturday evening but we must hope for win and then a huge match against Switzerland.

[Tipp Townie]

Yes, the Israelis are pretty much out of it unless there are some bizarre results. We could be out of it by Saturday evening but we must hope for win and then a huge match against Switzerland.

I dunno, i think Israel finish 2nd if France beat Switzerland and us and the Swiss draw?

[Tipp Townie]

I dunno, i think Israel finish 2nd if France beat Switzerland and us and the Swiss draw?

I should have added that i dont think that these results would be 'bizarre'..

[elroy]

It's worth pointing out (well it is if you're a numbers geek like me) that 6 points may not be enough for even second place.

If Switzerland bts France 2-1 and we beat Switzerland 1-0 we'll need to beat Cyprus by at least the same margin as France beat them. But France are at home to Cyprus so this'd be unlikely.

If we beat Swiss 1-0 and Swiss bt France 1-0 we'd need a 5 goal margin in Cyprus to win the group. If we beat Cyprus 6-2 it'd be a play-off at a neutral venue between us & the Swiss I think!

Regardless of the winning margin in Cyprus, if we bt Switzerland by more than they beat the French we win the group.

Any win in Cyprus followed by a 2 goal win over Switzerland must get us at least second.

And if I was Israeli I wouldn't be feeling too confident.


Sorry I know you've gone through this before but am i correct in same this is the order of deciding of who finishes above who in the case of 3 teams finishing on the same points:
1 The goal difference in the games between the three teams
2 The goal difference overall

[Stuttgart88]

Sorry I know you've gone through this before but am i correct in same this is the order of deciding of who finishes above who in the case of 3 teams finishing on the same points:
1 The goal difference in the games between the three teams
2 The goal difference overall
Yes, within the 3 team mini-group, if each team finishes level on 4 points, it goes to goal difference, then goals scored and then if there's still no clear determination of first and second it goes to total group GD and then total group GS.

[Stuttgart88]

I dunno, i think Israel finish 2nd if France beat Switzerland and us and the Swiss draw?

The key for Israel qualifying is a draw in IRL vs SWITZ. Any other result in that game & they're out. And even if it is a draw in Dublin a draw between Switz & France will mean they need to beat Faroes 7-0. They are the only team for whom qualification is out of their own hands. On that basis I'd prefer to be us than them I suppose.

[elroy]

Cheers Stuttgart,
The more I look at this the better I think a french win would be for us, I just cant see us beating the Swiss by two goals at home. Therefore, its better if the Swiss come here needing a win rather than a draw, so allez les bleus on sat me thinks.

[shakermaker1982]

Yeah the French to win would make it a lot easier for us and mean the Swiss have to attack next Wednesday instead of holding out for a draw.

[boysingreen]

If the Swiss beat the French, a 2-0 v. Swiss win will see us top the group. However, a 1-0 win and we wouldn't even get the playoff spot right?

[tricky_colour]

I think I will have to conceed that it is all far to complicated for me to fully understand :o


Makes integral calculus theory look simple.
http://mathworld.wolfram.com/Integral.html

A piece of p*ss in comparison :D

[Stuttgart88]

If the Swiss beat the French, a 2-0 v. Swiss win will see us top the group. However, a 1-0 win and we wouldn't even get the playoff spot right?

Not really - check above.


If Switzerland bts France 2-1 [or 3-2...] and we beat Switzerland 1-0 [or 2-1...] we'll need to beat Cyprus by at least the same margin as France beat them [or else we're 3rd]. But France are at home to Cyprus so this'd be unlikely.

If we beat Swiss 1-0 and Swiss bt France 1-0 we'd need a 5 goal margin in Cyprus to win the group. If we beat Cyprus 6-2 it'd be a play-off at a neutral venue between us & the Swiss I think!

If we beat Swiss by more than they beat the French we win the Group. If we both win by two goals we also win the group.

A 2-0 win vs Switzerland guarantees min. second place and wins the group unless the Swiss beat the French by 3-0 or, of course, France gets anything from the Swiss game.

[CollegeTillIDie]

The scenario is highly unlikely. Although if you were making a Movie of Brian Kerr's life that is precisely what you would put in the script:D