World Cup Qualification Playoffs - March 2026

[Eirambler]

The draw is at midday on Thursday.

Because the games aren't until March, we will be in December's World Cup finals draw.

Apparently Iceland, Bosnia and North Macedonia are the teams we will be supporting over the next few days to get us a home semi final. More likely it will be Pot 3 and an away semi final against a Pot 2 team - not at all unlikely that it could be Scotland or Wales away. Italy are loitering in the background, but we couldn't play them until a playoff final, they will play a Nations League qualifying team in their playoff semi.

[Strongbow10]

Who are the nations league playoff teams?

Sweden, Northern Ireland, Romania and possibly Wales?

How are the seedings/pots looking as it currently stands?

[culloty82]

Apparently, based on FIFA rankings, rather than points accumulated in groups (even with fifth seeds discounted), so as places currently stand:

Top seeds - Italy, Turkey, Poland, Scotland
Second - Czech, Slovakia, Albania, Ireland
Third - Macedonia, Iceland, Bosnia, Kosovo
Fourth - NI, Wales, Sweden, Romania

So we want Austria not to lose to Bosnia, Wales not to beat Macedonia, and Iceland not to lose to Ukraine.

[Bungle]

Apparently, based on FIFA rankings, rather than points accumulated in groups (even with fifth seeds discounted), so as places currently stand:

Top seeds - Italy, Turkey, Poland, Scotland
Second - Czech, Slovakia, Albania, Ireland
Third - Macedonia, Iceland, Bosnia, Kosovo
Fourth - NI, Wales, Sweden, Romania

So we want Austria not to lose to Bosnia, Wales not to beat Macedonia, and Iceland not to lose to Ukraine.

Thanks for that.

Presumably, we will get a huge rise in the rankings after these games though? Portugal are one of the biggest nations in the world and Hungary are 35th (not sure if away result gives bigger points totals).

[culloty82]

Yes, but the rankings aren't out until Wednesday, to take account of this full round, so Austria, Ukraine and Wales for instance, would still be well ahead of us as second seeds if they ended up in that position:

https://inside.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/men

[Insidetherock]

They're redoing the rankings on Wednesday. So the Portugal and Hungary results will be effective in the rankings.. surely will lift us a few spots..

A 2nd seed placing would be massive.. you'd have to give us a decent chance against any of the four teams in Pot 3 above, if that's the way it panned out..

Apart from Italy, I'd fancy a shot at any of the 1st seeds too..

Who cares at this stage.. we're still in it

[pixiehead]

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[Strongbow10]

Yeah and the one off nature of the games will suit us I reckon, rather than 2 legged affairs. Good chance we get the odd shock as well with a top seed getting taken out in semi final

[legendz]

I think this is the breakdown from a quick check for the top 3 pots:

Italy 9
Turkey 26
Ukraine 27 (or Iceland 74)
Poland 33

Wales 34 (or Macedonia 65)
Scotland 38
Czech Republic 44
Slovakia 46

Albania 61
Ireland 62
Bosnia 75
Kosovo 84

Ukraine and Iceland kicked off at 5pm. Playoff permutation will be clearer after that. Iceland above Ukraine and Macedonia above Wales looks like the results required for a home playoff semi final.

Italy 9
Turkey 26
Poland 33
Scotland 38

Czech Republic 44
Slovakia 46
Albania 61
Ireland 62

Macedonia 65 (or Wales 34)
Iceland 74 (or Ukraine 27)
Bosnia 75
Kosovo 84

Note: Ireland beat Portugal 5 and Hungary 37. Maybe those results will move Ireland above Albania before the draw. Something to be confirmed.

[rebelmusic]

Have the Iceland game on and they're looking very comfortable so far

[pixiehead]

I think this is the breakdown from a quick check for the top 3 pots:

Italy 9
Turkey 26
Ukraine 27 (or Iceland 74)
Poland 33

Wales 34 (or Macedonia 65)
Scotland 38
Czech Republic 44
Slovakia 46

Albania 61
Ireland 62
Bosnia 75
Kosovo 84

Ukraine and Iceland kicked off at 5pm. Playoff permutation will be clearer after that. Iceland above Ukraine and Macedonia above Wales looks like the results required for a home playoff semi final.

Italy 9
Turkey 26
Poland 33
Scotland 38

Czech Republic 44
Slovakia 46
Albania 61
Ireland 62

Macedonia 65 (or Wales 34)
Iceland 74 (or Ukraine 27)
Bosnia 75
Kosovo 84

Note: Ireland beat Portugal 5 and Hungary 37. Maybe those results will move Ireland above Albania before the draw. Something to be confirmed.

Ireland are above Albania now yes, there are websites that track live rankings e.g https://football-ranking.com/fifa-rankings?page=2

Basically, we don't want Wales or Ukraine to win and definately not Bosnia and Herzegovina.

If we're are in Pot 2, we can look forward to a Home game v
Albania
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Kosovo
North Macedonia or Iceland

[culloty82]

I think this is the breakdown from a quick check for the top 3 pots:

Italy 9
Turkey 26
Ukraine 27 (or Iceland 74)
Poland 33

Wales 34 (or Macedonia 65)
Scotland 38
Czech Republic 44
Slovakia 46

Albania 61
Ireland 62
Bosnia 75
Kosovo 84

Ukraine and Iceland kicked off at 5pm. Playoff permutation will be clearer after that. Iceland above Ukraine and Macedonia above Wales looks like the results required for a home playoff semi final.

Italy 9
Turkey 26
Poland 33
Scotland 38

Czech Republic 44
Slovakia 46
Albania 61
Ireland 62

Macedonia 65 (or Wales 34)
Iceland 74 (or Ukraine 27)
Bosnia 75
Kosovo 84

Note: Ireland beat Portugal 5 and Hungary 37. Maybe those results will move Ireland above Albania before the draw. Something to be confirmed.

Almost certainly - our two wins will be worth more points than even a goalless draw against England (as it currently stands).

[pineapple stu]

There's more beatable teams in that than I was fearing

Which is probably bad for us given our record against beatable. Still though, you never know

[The Fly]

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[The Fly]

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[Eirambler]

HH's countrymen not doing him any favours right now, Ukraine 1-0 up unfortunately.

[rebelmusic]

Ukraine scored :(

[culloty82]

And again - looks like we're all Macedonians on Tuesday!

[Eirambler]

Yes, we need Wales to have a Macedonia now. For what it's worth, Wales were poor the last day against Liechtenstein and picked up a few suspensions as well.

[backstothewall]

So on my reading of the process, it's theoretically possible for us to qualify for the World Cup in America in Windsor Park?

[legendz]

SCENARIO A:
Wales finishing above Macedonia would have Ireland in Pot 3.
1. Italy 9
2. Turkey 26
3. Ukraine 27
4. Poland 33

5. Wales 34( or N. Macedonia 65)
6. Scotland 38
7. Czech Republic 44
8. Slovakia 46

9. Ireland 61
10. Albania 62
11. Bosnia 75
12. Kosovo 84

SCENARIO B:
Macedonia finishing above Wales could have Ireland in Pot 2.
1. Italy 9
2. Turkey 26
3. Ukraine 27
4. Poland 33

5. Scotland 38
6. Czech Republic 44
7. Slovakia 46
8. Ireland 61

9. Albania 62
10. N. Macedonia 65 (or Wales 34)
11. Bosnia 75
12. Kosavo 84

Tuesday fixtures of note:
Group J, Wales v N. Macedonia 19:45
Group H, Austria v Bosnia 19:45

Bosnia beating Austria away would win their group, dropping Austria 24 into Pot 1. That would have a knock affect of others dropping down e.g. Poland into Pot 2. Slovakia dropping down to Pot 3 in Scenario A or Ireland dropping down to Pot 3 in Scenario B.

[geysir]

So on my reading of the process, it's theoretically possible for us to qualify for the World Cup in America in Windsor Park?

Pot 4 is cursed, regardless.

[third policeman]

Can't help feeling there'll be a few 2nd and 3rd G players suddenly feeling a bit more Irish after this week, Dewsbury-Hall, Jobe Bellingham et al. Would you take them/

[pineapple stu]

They'll likely not throw their hat in for two away playoff games I guess

We do need strengthening though. I know we had a lot of people out this week but the bench was really poor. Idah and Festy were dreadful in both games and we could do with phasing them out of we're honest. Coleman has been great lately but he may have been seconds away from the end of his international career. O'Toole and Moran getting called up - that sort of thing

[backstothewall]

Looking at the FIFA rankings Wales must be close to overhauling Poland to get into Pot 1.

I'd much prefer to face Wales tbh.

[Eirambler]

From our point of view we want Wales down in pot 4, because that's the only outcome that can get us a home semi. That will happen if they don't beat Macedonia.

[Strongbow10]

From our point of view we want Wales down in pot 4, because that's the only outcome that can get us a home semi. That will happen if they don't beat Macedonia.

Don't we need Austria to avoid defeat to Bosnia also? Aswell as North Macedonia to avoid defeat

[The Fly]

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[Tomas]

Brilliant. Who are Ireland play in play-offs now? Its hard to tell looking at the tables.

[Tomas]

Now on my feed if Germany lose to Slovakia its a great possibility of the semifinal between the Germans and Ireland. Would be great for Ireland as Germany have been struggling big time lately while the Irish are on a high.

[legendz]

Now on my feed if Germany lose to Slovakia its a great possibility of the semifinal between the Germans and Ireland. Would be great for Ireland as Germany have been struggling big time lately while the Irish are on a high.

Germany or Slovakia will be above Ireland. No impact from that one in terms of Pot 3 possibilities but yeah, Germany would fall into the playoffs if they lose to Slovakia tomorrow.

[Poor Student]

Is there any possibility Ireland can overtake Slovakia's FIFA ranking if Germany beat Slovakia?

[pineapple stu]

Italy after getting destroyed by Norway at home. Norway will go far in the World Cup - quarters at least you'd imagine. Haaland is an absolute beast - 16 goals in 8 games, which equals the record for most goals in a European qualifying campaign (and Lewandowski had two more games).

Anyway, confirms Italy in the playoffs, but they won their six non-Norway games, so they're still ones to avoid.

[legendz]

Is there any possibility Ireland can overtake Slovakia's FIFA ranking if Germany beat Slovakia?

Someone shared a link to the live rankings earlier. Slovakia are currently up to 40 and are above Czech Republic. Bosnia and Wales both not winning are the results required for a home playoff semi final.

[elatedscum]

They'll likely not throw their hat in for two away playoff games I guess

The final is apparently totally random as to whether it’ll be home or way. I’d say we’re about 85% likely to play the first game away from home

[Bungle]

Portugal are miles better than any teams left and Hungary would be borderline a pot 1 team if they made it through today.

Equally Armenia are atrocious and would be well beaten by all these teams without exception - maybe they might blag a result against one or two in Yereven.

We have shown the standard we can reach and we have momentum. However, if we turn up like we did in Armenia, we would be in serious trouble.

I will say Italy look shocking and Ukraine won't be playing at home anyway. Turkey look the ones to avoid in pot 1. Poland are always solid and would be nasty in Warsaw.

Pot 2 teams if we have to play them don't look incredible. Scotland have much better players than us in midfield but we could do a number on them. We have a far superior goalkeeper, a better defence and a very competitive attack alongside a really competent manager. I feel we are better than Wales. The Czechs are a name, but don't look any great side. Again would be nasty enough in Prague, but I don't fear them. The Slovaks are a decent side.

If we get to pot 2, I feel there are some awkward teams in pot 3. Kosovo might seem the one to get, but they have serious momentum and I imagine they would die for that shirt. I would feel confident against them all in Dublin though.

Worried about pot 4. Sweden are probably the most talented team left in the playoffs. Potentially horrible game in a final. If they click, they will be seriously dangerous. The North is a banana skin. Romania in Bucharest would not be nice.

Overall, Sweden and Turkey definitely the ones to avoid across the pots with a nod to Italy's heritage as being a reason to keep away from them.

It's nice to be worrying about these things for a change.

[Kingdom]

The final is apparently totally random as to whether it’ll be home or way. I’d say we’re about 85% likely to play the first game away from home

That's why FIFA are referring to them as 'pathways'. Teams are drawn into semi-final slots, and then FIFA perform a draw in advance for the final play-off match,

[Insidetherock]

Question:

We want North Macedonia to get a result against Wales, so that they qualify directly to the play offs, and that pushes Ireland up into Pot 2, to take Wales place.

But... North Macedonia are also guarenteed a spot in the play offs, via that Nations League C pathway, as they won their group.

So, if they qualify directly by getting a result against Wales.. who gets that fourth spot in Pot 4?

Is it the "next best Group C" team

[Insidetherock]

Just checked the rules.. looks like Armenia are back in, if North Macedonia get a result against Wales.. they're the 3rd ranked Nations League C runners up.. but Kosovo and Slovakia will already have earned spots via the qualifiers

[rebelmusic]

Just checked the rules.. looks like Armenia are back in, if North Macedonia get a result against Wales.. they're the 3rd ranked Nations League C runners up.. but Kosovo and Slovakia will already have earned spots via the qualifiers

Can you imagine if they qualified after yesterday's result.....football is a funny sport.

I'd prefer a strong enough pot 4. There's every chance at least one of the Pot 4s will get a scalp.

[Nesta99]

Redemption is written in to this campaign. Would be a mad scenario to end up playing them again if its possible. They really do like to make qualification almost a PhD to follow, would give GAA a run for their money!

[Eirambler]

There's no way in for Armenia, they're gone. It's just a straight swap between Wales and Macedonia, the loser goes into pot 4, the winner (or Macedonia if it's a draw) goes into one of the higher ranked pots. The 28 teams that progress from the UEFA groups by either qualifying or making the playoffs have now been determined with the other 26 eliminated. The outstanding matters now are to do with auto qualification (e.g. Scotland v Denmark, Germany v Slovakia) but the non auto qualifiers from those matchups will all get playoffs at worst.

[Insidetherock]

Next time,

I think UEFA should make WC qualification similar to Champions League.. 11 groups of 5, each team play 11 games (one from each pot), 6 home, 5 away, or vice versa

Or 10 games, 5 home, 5 away, but don't play any team in the same pot

Top 12 teams, qualify

Next 16 team, play offs, 16/8/4.. so 2 extra games..

😃

[Eirambler]

There has been some talk of a move to the so-called Swiss system in future. With the Nations League becoming more prominent, we're starting to move away from the traditional groups format that we have become used to down the years.

[~YTM~]

Can't help feeling there'll be a few 2nd and 3rd G players suddenly feeling a bit more Irish after this week, Dewsbury-Hall, Jobe Bellingham et al. Would you take them/

Bellingham will never have an interest in Ireland. Bellingham will wait for that England call up. One cap playing with his brother will mean more to him than 50+ Ireland caps.

Would definitely take some quality midfielders but then you see what yesterday meant to lads who'd do anything to play for Ireland. Szmodics another lad I hope HH has second thoughts about calling up. Fair enough he's injured now but dropped out mid window in September and before the games last month through injury but never missed a game for Ipswich.

[rebelmusic]

Article on the proposed changes below. I like the idea. They do need to figure out how to give international teams proper training camps. Friendlies are less and less important but giving a squad two days to prep for a huge game is BS.

https://www.goal.com/en/lists/world-cup-qualifying-champions-league-format-fears-declining-interest-uefa/bltcb0c16074489ef53

[rebelmusic]

. Szmodics another lad I hope HH has second thoughts about calling up. Fair enough he's injured now but dropped out mid window in September and before the games last month through injury but never missed a game for Ipswich.

Szmodics has gotten a ton of abuse online for that and I think it's gone too far.

[legendz]

Just checked the rules.. looks like Armenia are back in, if North Macedonia get a result against Wales.. they're the 3rd ranked Nations League C runners up.. but Kosovo and Slovakia will already have earned spots via the qualifiers
Wales and N. Macedonia were both Nations League group winners. Whoever misses out on 2nd will be in Pot 4. If a Pot 4 spot was freed up, Moldova are next in line from Nations League group winners.

[Fixer82]

Bellingham will never have an interest in Ireland. Bellingham will wait for that England call up. One cap playing with his brother will mean more to him than 50+ Ireland caps.

Would definitely take some quality midfielders but then you see what yesterday meant to lads who'd do anything to play for Ireland. Szmodics another lad I hope HH has second thoughts about calling up. Fair enough he's injured now but dropped out mid window in September and before the games last month through injury but never missed a game for Ipswich.

And he immediately got injured for Ipswich.
Unwarranted abuse and it’s embarrassing to be honest. He turned up plenty over the last year or two when we weren’t doing well

[Fixer82]

Is it too late for Liam Delap to declare ?