Republic of Ireland v Armenia - Tuesday, 14th October 2025 - 2026 World Cup Qualifier

[pineapple stu]

It's the very opposite of a quick fix.
It's not though. And that's as someone who has called on Manning to be be capped more because we had a clear need for succession planning at let-back. He's been one of our best players lately - not saying much, granted.

But the difference between Manning and Adaramola/Roughan/Ndaba is - he was clearly half-decent. He was playing for a yo-yo side between Championship and Premier. The others, as you've pointed out, aren't great.

Had we capped Roughan three years ago, not much would have changed. Instead of being a fullback not up to it, he'd be a 10-time fullback not up to it.

I've no problems throwing these guys in for a cap to see what happens. I do have a problem with it getting touted as a previously successful policy though. It's not. You develop at club level, not at international level. If you throw kids in at international level like it was a club friendly, you'll get nowhere.

Which amazingly enough is where we are

[backstothewall]

Had we capped Roughan three years ago, not much would have changed. Instead of being a fullback not up to it, he'd be a 10-time fullback not up to it.

Ipse dixit.


I've no problems throwing these guys in for a cap to see what happens. I do have a problem with it getting touted as a previously successful policy though. It's not. You develop at club level, not at international level. If you throw kids in at international level like it was a club friendly, you'll get nowhere.

Which amazingly enough is where we are

Northern Ireland do it.

They've a smaller pool of players, a much weaker domestic league, and fewer resources in every other way.

They capped Galbraith in 2019 as an 18 year old. Ironically enough he got his first cap in a friendly against Luxembourg. Since then he's made it to the dizzy heights of Swansea City, but 4 months ago he was a Leyton Orient player. He has 11 caps

After the other night Florian Wirtz hopes never to see him again. I imagine the office at Southampton have spent a good bit of this week organising passes for scouts from all over Europe for their game against Swansea on Saturday.

Based on the way we pick squads and/or teams (the status quo you suggest should continue), it's doubtful he would ever have been picked by us
had he been born on the other side of the Antrim Road in Glengormley to a family who like Abba and keep their toaster on the counter.

And it's not like this is a theoretical argument. There are other Irish players tied to the FAI who we can compare his treatment to. Ethan Galbraith is 24 years old. So are Jason Knight and Luca Connell.

Jason Knight made his debut in 2020, a year later than Galbraith. He now has 41 international caps for Ireland. That's more than John Sheridan or Mark Lawrenson. Alan Browne has picked up 37 caps since his debut in 2017.

Luca Connell is still waiting for his first cap.

The 2 guys who play in his position, and who have picked up a combine total of 78 international caps, have as many appearances in the Premier League between them as I do on my own. And can you or anyone else honestly say that you are convinced Jason Knight is a better player than Luca Connell? Or can you tell me the benefit of Jason Knight having 41 caps at this age that we would have missed out on if he only had 30?

We are slow to bring young players into our squad, we don't experiment nearly enough, and the squad is far to hard to difficult to play your way out of once you have become established as one of the usual suspects. Wes Hoolahan turned 30 years old with 2 caps, and we've learned nothing from the mistakes made with him by Staunton, Trapattoni and O'Neill.

[pineapple stu]

But you've shown no causation there.

Would Luca Connell have 40 caps if we'd capped him 5/6 years ago?

Jason Knight is playing a division above Connell, and barring a spell at a bankrupt Bolton team which had to field the teenagers and in doing so lost almost every one of their games Connell has never played at Championship level, whereas Knight is well established there with 200+ games under his belt. There's a reason for that - and yeah, I'm convinced Knight is a better player than Connell.

We're not slow to bring young players into our squad, as the current decade has shown. We've capped players way before their time (mostly through necessity) - some have gone on to do alright (Parrott), some haven't (Armstrong, Moran), and some are the players you now want to get rid of to make way for new great white hopes (Idah, Smallbone).

And I've no problems with anyone getting capped (despite your suggestions) - I just don't believe it makes any real impact on their development. Again, club and international are different things. Clubs can afford to throw a kid in in a friendly and see how he goes. National teams should do that if we're desperate (like Kenny did) or if the player is really promising (like the guy playing for Rosenborg at 15 and starring for them at 16)

I think ultimately when your point is based on equating Nypan with Roughan/Adaramola/Ndaba, then it has to fall on that basis along.

[ifk101]

HH has given competitive minutes to 24 players so far in the WC qualification campaign (4 games) and probably has named 40+ unique players in his squads since taking the job. There’s a need to test players and consider those outside the squad, but the sheer number of players used in the past year or so demonstrates we are doing that – and then some. Throwing more and more players at the problem is not the solution if we are not able to maximise/ get the very best out of the players we are using.

[backstothewall]

But you've shown no causation there.

Would Luca Connell have 40 caps if we'd capped him 5/6 years ago?

Jason Knight is playing a division above Connell, and barring a spell at a bankrupt Bolton team which had to field the teenagers and in doing so lost almost every one of their games Connell has never played at Championship level, whereas Knight is well established there with 200+ games under his belt. There's a reason for that - and yeah, I'm convinced Knight is a better player than Connell.

We're not slow to bring young players into our squad, as the current decade has shown. We've capped players way before their time (mostly through necessity) - some have gone on to do alright (Parrott), some haven't (Armstrong, Moran), and some are the players you now want to get rid of to make way for new great white hopes (Idah, Smallbone).

And I've no problems with anyone getting capped (despite your suggestions) - I just don't believe it makes any real impact on their development. Again, club and international are different things. Clubs can afford to throw a kid in in a friendly and see how he goes. National teams should do that if we're desperate (like Kenny did) or if the player is really promising (like the guy playing for Rosenborg at 15 and starring for them at 16)

I think ultimately when your point is based on equating Nypan with Roughan/Adaramola/Ndaba, then it has to fall on that basis along.

*screams into pillow*

Nobody is saying Connell should have had 40 caps. I’m saying that we have missed low consequence opportunities to give him and others like him half a dozen each.

Anyway.

Next up we have a vital qualifier against one of the best sides in Europe. People are talking up the idea of recalling James McClean at 36 because we don’t have a single recognised left back available. If we fail to get something from the game it’s going to be over a decade since we qualified for a major tournament despite the qualification process for the Euros being made far easier for us.

If this isn’t desperation, what is?


HH has given competitive minutes to 24 players so far in the WC qualification campaign (4 games) and probably has named 40+ unique players in his squads since taking the job. There’s a need to test players and consider those outside the squad, but the sheer number of players used in the past year or so demonstrates we are doing that – and then some. Throwing more and more players at the problem is not the solution if we are not able to maximise/ get the very best out of the players we are using.

It's not just the numbers. It's the profile of players who get given their debut, and the absence of succession planning.

There are exceptions who take to it like a duck to water, but I’ve always felt it takes most players until somewhere around their 10th cap before they get to grips with international football. If someone is in their late 20s when they make their debut, chances are they will already be in the mouth of their 30s by the time they getting close to having double figures of caps

Far too often we give players a debut in their late 20s when they are already at their ceiling, at the expense of younger talent who still have the potential to do more with their career. I'd much sooner take a punt on a 21 year old playing in League One or Premier League 2 than a 27 year old who's plateaued as a journeyman Championship footballer.

Although there’s no recent example I can call to mind of us playing someone from a League One club, I’d say İstanbul Başakşehir is probably a similar standard to a club at the top end of League One. Festy was among our best players in the last round of games. He’s into double figures of caps now and despite where he plays you can see he’s growing in confidence and starting to look the part as an international footballer.

HH has given minutes to 39 players in total. They are…

Adam Idah, Alan Browne, Andrew Omobamidele, Andy Moran, Callum O'Dowda, Callum Robinson, Caoimhin Kelleher, Chiedozie Ogbene, Dara O'Shea, Evan Ferguson, Festy Ebosele, Finn Azaz, Jack Taylor, Jake O'Brien, Jamie McGrath, Jason Knight, Jayson Molumby, Jimmy Dunne, John Egan, John Patrick Finn, Josh Cullen, Kasey McAteer, Killian Phillips, Liam Scales, Mark McGuinness, Mark Sykes, Matt Doherty, Max O'Leary, Mikey Johnston, Nathan Collins, Robbie Brady, Rocco Vata, Ryan Manning, Sammie Szmodics, Séamus Coleman, Tom Cannon, Troy Parrott, Will Smallbone

When compared to the list of names used by Stephen Kenny in his final season (a team which failed miserably), there’s only been 9 new faces added in the 18 months HH has been in the job

- Jimmy Dunne (27)
- John Patrick Finn (22)
- Kasey McAteer (23)
- Killian Phillips (23)
- Mark McGuinness (24)
- Mark Sykes (28)
- Max O'Leary (29)
- Rocco Vata (20)
- Sammie Szmodics (30)

I place very little blame for that of HH tbh. He didn’t get a run of friendly games to prepare a fresh squad. John O’Shea was running the show during those games, and rather than acting in the long term interest of Irish football he called up the most experienced squad he could in a vain effort to get himself the job.

Of the guys who have been brought in I’m extremely pleased to see Rocco Vata in there. Szmodics was older, but I agree there was no option other than giving him a run. He was as hot as a $2 pistol during that 23/24 season.

But as much as I like to see a guy from Belfast getting a game, it made very little sense to me that Mark Sykes got that chance. There were other much younger midfielders who were already playing at a similar level to him, but who had a much higher potential ceiling.

Jimmy Dunne finally got his debut 7 years after his first call up. Unfortunately it’s another example of a player who we should be succession planning for by the time he'll have those 10 or 12 caps and is starting to look comfortable playing international football. One would assume that as Jake O’Brien fills out he will end up as a central defender, and that eventually Festy will drop back to fullback. I’d say that in a couple of years time our first choice back 4 is likely to be

Festy – O’Brien – Collins – Manning

Things actually look pretty secure in goal and central defence. Sadly Seamus Coleman will retire. Hopefully Matt Doherty has either already had that choice made for him, or he isn’t available because he’s been blasted into outer space.

I would presume Jimmy Dunne will still be around as understudy for Festy at right back in 2 years time. But at some point in the future that position may give us the sort of problems we now have at left back for the next round of games. We will have much less cover there in the future.

The sort of long term planning I would like to see would involve trying to get out ahead of the issue and start looking now for a young right back or 2 who might become regular squad members in time. Guys who would do no more for now than come on for a couple of 10 minute spells towards the end of a less significant match, but start building their experience.

And that’s the philosophy I think we should follow. It’s not about carpet bombing the squad with young players. We don’t need to do this in goal or central defence. We’re good for attacking midfielders. It is about strategically trying to develop talent in a few key positions where it’s reasonably foreseeable that we might have a bit of trouble in the future. We should have done this with a couple of left backs over the last 2 years. It was very obvious that McClean, Brady and Enda Stevens were all coming to the end of their careers at the same time. We didn’t address the issue and we’ve totally shafted ourselves ahead of this Portugal game.

[pineapple stu]

*screams into pillow*

Nobody is saying Connell should have had 40 caps.
Why else did you call out that Jason Knight has 41 caps and Alan Browne has 37 while Connell has none?


There are exceptions who take to it like a duck to water, but I’ve always felt it takes most players until somewhere around their 10th cap before they get to grips with international football.
I think this idea of "getting to grips with international football" is overexaggerated. It's just a game of football. If we had the strength in depth that we were only calling Parrott or Kelleher up for their first caps now, they'd jump straight in. Because, again, club football is where you develop. Because you spend most of your time there.


Although there’s no recent example I can call to mind of us playing someone from a League One club, I’d say İstanbul Başakşehir is probably a similar standard to a club at the top end of League One. Festy was among our best players in the last round of games. He’s into double figures of caps now and despite where he plays you can see he’s growing in confidence and starting to look the part as an international footballer.
Slightly on-topic here, but I didn't think Festy was all that great in this window. He has pace to burn and it gets people excited, but he had close to no end product over the window, bar one great cross in Portugal. I couldn't understand how he was man of the match against Armenia. None of our players were great, but Manning on the other wing was more quietly effective I thought.

I don't think they're League One standard based on recent European results though. Not with wins against Fiorentina, Antwerp, Heidenheim, Viking, Hearts (7-1)


And that’s the philosophy I think we should follow. It’s not about carpet bombing the squad with young players. It is about strategically trying to develop talent in a few key positions where it’s reasonably foreseeable that we might have a bit of trouble in the future. We should have done this with a couple of left backs over the last 2 years. It was very obvious that McClean, Brady and Enda Stevens were all coming to the end of their careers at the same time. We didn’t address the issue and we’ve totally shafted ourselves ahead of this Portugal game.
The thing is, while I've also flagged succession planning over the past few years, I don't agree an international side can really develop players. My suggestion was Ryan Manning, who was an obvious candidate because of the level he was playing at, and that seems to have been validated by how well he's playing lately. But equally I would have expressed concern that Manning aside, there was no obvious candidates. I think that's still the case. We may have to start playing League One players in some positions because of lack of options. That won't really develop them though. It'll just make us weaker.

[ontheotherhand]

Also don't think you develop players in international football but you can certainly time their selection just right. Find a player on the way up in terms of form and ability and it can look like the international cap helped them climb the ladder. Ogbene might be a good example of that recently. It's also possible the international cap did actually help him, as a further proof point that he was bigger than Rotherham, so I don't think backstothewall is completely off the wall here TBF.

Should be we looking to cap players (Alex Murphy might be one) who are playing for either top level reserve sides or for lower league clubs, but actually have the ability to play at a higher level and likely will?

Is it desperate hope that makes me wonder if there are some hidden gems out there? Probably.

[samhaydenjr]

Got to watch the highlights on YouTube yesterday and I thought I would note that only a string of outstanding saves by the Armenian goalkeeper prevented us from getting the 2 or three goal win that would have probably been considered satisfactory, albeit against ten men. We created a number of really good chances with quite a few players involved. Plus Idah's finish for the disallowed goal was really good. However, we need to be braver. Hungary were brave in their two away games and got their reward.
I feel like we're close to a big performance,but it has to happen in November (twice)

[pineapple stu]

. Find a player on the way up in terms of form and ability and it can look like the international cap helped them climb the ladder.
I think that's fine. But I don't think any of the names given - Adaramola, Roughan, Ndaba, MacNulty - are close to being that sort of player

The Norwegian guy given as a counter example does look like exactly that sort of player by contrast - which means I don't think you can reasonably make a comparison between Norway capping him and us capping the hang of four

[backstothewall]

I think that's fine. But I don't think any of the names given - Adaramola, Roughan, Ndaba, MacNulty - are close to being that sort of player

The Norwegian guy given as a counter example does look like exactly that sort of player by contrast - which means I don't think you can reasonably make a comparison between Norway capping him and us capping the hang of four

The guy who prompted the discussion was Ethan Galbraith, who was very similar to those guys at a time

[EalingGreen]

The guy who prompted the discussion was Ethan Galbraith, who looked exactly like those guys at a time
Know nothing about those other ROI prospects, but Ethan's career development is a very interesting one. He was extremely highly thought of when he went to Man U as a teenager, and Ian Baraclough gave him his debut in a friendly vs Luxembourg when he was 18 i.e. before he'd ever played for MU. Indeed Bara even gushed that Ethan was "Northern Ireland's very own Andres Iniesta or Xavi", which at the time seemed just a tad optimistic, to say the least!
In fact he never got to play for MU's 1st team and after a couple of underwhelming loans to Doncaster and Salford, when he picked up only another couple of caps, he was released to sign for Orient, under Richie Wellens, who'd previously managed him at Donny.
Turns out he did extremely well at Orient, getting him a move to Swansea, where he's continued to thrive, while now establishing himself with NI under Michael O'Neill. (He was quite superb vs Germany last week, I'd go so far as to say he actually ran the midfield for a period in the second half, he was that good).

What might this mean for ROI? I'd say three things.
1. It's not enough just to have talent, it has to be developed properly, ideally by a manager who "gets" the player;
2. Unless a complete prodigy (eg Norman Whiteside), young players need to play themselves into international football - minimum of 10 caps before they know anything, often 20 or 30 before they even start to perform consistently, esp in a lower ranked team;
3. Management at international level is crucial, far more than at club level, where the whole set-up has to be right. I actually think Baraclough was decent enough, but he took over a team where the backbone had retired after Euro2016, and had to rely on too many youngsters before they were ready. (He might have got away with the best one or two, esp if introduced into a strong team, but he had no choice but to pick half a dozen at a time, in a struggling team).

Which is where Michael O'Neill stepped in. With his experience and nous, he's now building a very decent team, largely based round the players whom Bara had blooded a couple of years previously, with a lot of them in the early-to-mid 20's, but with terrific experience eg Shea Charles (21 y.o/31 caps), Trai Hume (23/25), Danny Ballard (26/29), Ali McCann (25/33), Brodie Spencer (21/13) and of course, Conor Bradley (22/28). And if his most regular gk has been Peacock-Farrell, 52 caps aged 28, Michael is clearly grooming Pierce Charles for the role, a 20 y.o., who would have had more than 8 caps so far but for injury. Anyhow, this is all reflected in the fact that one of the teams he picked earlier this year was the youngest NI team since 1945 - and they won!

When you consider the majority of those players are at the same or lower level than their ROI counterparts, the difference in performances and results cannot really be accounted for eg by wrong formations, poor tactics or substitutions, bad luck, injuries, overlooking possible alternative players, not trusting youth, or not moving Nathan Collins into midfield!

The bigger picture surely suggests that your current struggles are down to management failings over a prolonged period. That is, O'Neill/Keane had "lost it" by their final few games; Kenny never really had it; O'Shea is out of his depth, even as caretaker; and even if HH has what it takes (can't see it myself), then he has to be given time to turn round 5+ years of decline before he ever took over.
The problem there being that even if he got it (he won't), it risks many of the present squad becoming completely disillusioned and falling out of the reckoning before results began to turn around.
So that he, or more likely his successor, would be faced with having to start again pretty much from scratch, relying (like Bara/Michael) on new/young players, who may or may not have what it takes.
Which realistically means that unless you chance upon eg a Jack Charlton or a Michael O'Neill who can come in and hit the ground running, then turning things round will take time, with your share of setbacks along the way.

Either that or a United Ireland team :wink:

[ifk101]

When you consider the majority of those players are at the same or lower level than their ROI counterparts, the difference in performances and results cannot really be accounted for eg by wrong formations, poor tactics or substitutions, bad luck, injuries, overlooking possible alternative players, not trusting youth, or not moving Nathan Collins into midfield!

In terms of results, not much difference. If we assume all games played by both teams in 2025 were competitive, we’d have 12 points from 8 games and you would have 11 from your 8 games – our lost away to Armenia is the huge black mark in our 2025 results and the reason HH is nearly out the door. Our performances in 2025 have been acceptable to terrible, can’t comment on your performances (except for the Sweden game).


Either that or a United Ireland team :wink:

Not sure if all your mercenaries would be eligible to play for that team. :wink: But anyways congratulations on qualifying for the WC and best of luck in the US!

[EalingGreen]

In terms of results, not much difference. If we assume all games played by both teams in 2025 were competitive, we’d have 12 points from 8 games and you would have 11 from your 8 games – our lost away to Armenia is the huge black mark in our 2025 results and the reason HH is nearly out the door. Our performances in 2025 have been acceptable to terrible, can’t comment on your performances (except for the Sweden game).
Would you rather your team was playing like ROI, or like NI?
Facts are, we have a promising young team who should only get better under a top manager, whereas your team is floundering under a manager who seems out of his depth. Such that we still have an (admittedly) outside chance of qualifying for WC2026, while you're ship has surely sailed.

I know which I'd rather have.



Not sure if all your mercenaries would be eligible to play for that team. :wink: But anyways congratulations on qualifying for the WC and best of luck in the US!Pretty sure they all would (parents born in NI etc, or grandparents eligible for an Irish passport). Either way, each one is clearly hugely proud to play for our team, which is all that matters to me.

As for USA, I'm not really expecting it, but when it comes to Euro2028, I don't think we'll have needed Casement Park in order to take part, I'm confident we'll do it the right way!

[ifk101]

Would you rather your team was playing like ROI, or like NI?
Facts are, we have a promising young team who should only get better under a top manager, whereas your team is floundering under a manager who seems out of his depth. Such that we still have an (admittedly) outside chance of qualifying for WC2026, while you're ship has surely sailed.

I know which I'd rather have.

Only seen the Sweden game, so can't fully comment. Thought ye had qualified already, sorry. Yes, our boat has sailed - don't see us picking up more points from here.


Pretty sure they all would (parents born in NI etc, or grandparents eligible for an Irish passport). Either way, each one is clearly hugely proud to play for their team, which is all that matters to me.

Fixed that for you.


As for USA, I'm not really expecting it, but when it comes to Euro2028, I don't think we'll have needed Casement Park in order to take part, I'm confident we'll do it the right way!

Good luck!

[EalingGreen]

Only seen the Sweden game, so can't fully comment. Thought ye had qualified already, sorry. Yes, our boat has sailed - don't see us picking up more points from here.
Primarily down to Isak and Elanga etc having a bit of a blinder, that Sweden game was an outlier:
"It was a harsh lesson for a Northern Ireland side missing several key players, with the average age of Michael O'Neill's starting team just 22.6 years old - the joint-second youngest for the country since 1946."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/live/clyremk47gpt

And an outlier not just for NI:
"Struggling Sweden sack manager Tomasson"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/clyl5906qnzo


Fixed that for you. "Their team", "our team", who cares, it's the Northern Ireland team and as the song goes: "It's all the same to me!" :good:


Good luck!Thank you.

[elatedscum]

Would you rather your team was playing like ROI, or like NI?
Such that we still have an (admittedly) outside chance of qualifying for WC2026, while you're ship has surely sailed.


I honestly think the likelihood of either side qualifying is pretty low and not that different. Both sides know if they lose their next game, they’re as good as gone. Both sides ultimately need to go away to a second seed and get a result. NI’s games are easier but they could theoretically win both their games and still come third. Probably both teams have maybe a 1 in 10 shot of making the playoffs and from that a 1 in 5 shot or less to make it through the playoffs, so you end up with maybe a 2% shot on either side making the World Cup, maybe it ends up at 1.6% and 2.3% or whatever but really it’s not a huge difference.

*was only factoring in qualification via the group playoffs, not the NL path, where you'd say NI are very very likely to enter.

[elatedscum]

As an aside, has anyone seen the San Marino situation? Where they might need to ensure they lose by a certain number of goals to make the playoffs.

1) Basically Romania are ahead of them in NL standings but Bosnia are behind them. They're currently 6th in the ranking and they need to be 4th, so for example if Romania and Northern Ireland qualified directly then San Marino would make the playoff. Romania are currently 3 points behind Bosnia - they play against each other and Bosnia play against the group leader. Romania's other group game is against San Marino, so it's very possible that San Marino could go into it knowing they need to lose or knowing it could come down to goal difference and they need to lose by at least 2 goals more than Bosnia win by (in the scenario where Romania beat Bosnia), or maybe lose by 4 goals more than than Bosnia lose by (in the scenario where it's a draw).

2) There's a secondary situation where teams like Romania, Bosnia, North Macedonia, Wales, Northern Ireland etc. could actually be incentivised to lose to go via the NL Playoff where they might face teams like Moldova and San Marino rather than teams like Italy and Hungary. Currently Wales are guaranteed to make one of the playoffs - they're 3 points behind Macedonia with a game in hand in the group and they also are guaranteed the NL path. Macedonia are almost certain to take Wales place if they come third. So you could end up on the last day of qualification with teams trying to decide whether they want to win or lose based on their prospective playoff paths.

[Trequartista20]

NI have extremely slender resources, even in terms of full-time professionals available to them, let alone 'international-class' players, so are forced to make a virtue out of necessity in picking many of the young players named.

Obviously this will have a great many drawbacks as well as it's occasional payoffs.

[Eminence Grise]

Would you rather your team was playing like ROI, or like NI?

All things being equal, I'd rather rather they were playing like Spain or Argentina.

[ifk101]

Primarily down to Isak and Elanga etc having a bit of a blinder, that Sweden game was an outlier:
"It was a harsh lesson for a Northern Ireland side missing several key players, with the average age of Michael O'Neill's starting team just 22.6 years old - the joint-second youngest for the country since 1946."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/live/clyremk47gpt

Ah, not sure about that. Sweden’s strengths are heavily weighed in attack so if they score first, which forces the opposition to open up – they are capable of picking teams off. As proved in that game.

It was 4-0 when Elanga came on btw.



And an outlier not just for NI:
"Struggling Sweden sack manager Tomasson"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/clyl5906qnzo

Remove the Kosovo results, and it’s not that bad – but JDT was a bit naive in how he set the defence up, and it didn’t help his case being Danish. Sweden doesn’t want to miss out on the WC, and with the back door opportunity of the NL still existing, they decided to cut their losses now.

[backstothewall]

As an aside, has anyone seen the San Marino situation? Where they might need to ensure they lose by a certain number of goals to make the playoffs.

1) Basically Romania are ahead of them in NL standings but Bosnia are behind them. They're currently 6th in the ranking and they need to be 4th, so for example if Romania and Northern Ireland qualified directly then San Marino would make the playoff. Romania are currently 3 points behind Bosnia - they play against each other and Bosnia play against the group leader. Romania's other group game is against San Marino, so it's very possible that San Marino could go into it knowing they need to lose or knowing it could come down to goal difference and they need to lose by at least 2 goals more than Bosnia win by (in the scenario where Romania beat Bosnia), or maybe lose by 4 goals more than than Bosnia lose by (in the scenario where it's a draw).

2) There's a secondary situation where teams like Romania, Bosnia, North Macedonia, Wales, Northern Ireland etc. could actually be incentivised to lose to go via the NL Playoff where they might face teams like Moldova and San Marino rather than teams like Italy and Hungary. Currently Wales are guaranteed to make one of the playoffs - they're 3 points behind Macedonia with a game in hand in the group and they also are guaranteed the NL path. Macedonia are almost certain to take Wales place if they come third. So you could end up on the last day of qualification with teams trying to decide whether they want to win or lose based on their prospective playoff paths.

Strong vibes of Ards v Bangor 1995 (https://dontstopliving.net/the-day-bangor-fc-deliberately-lost-2-0-to-get-promoted-to-the-premier-league/#:~:text=In%201995%20Bangor%20FC%20deliberately,se cond%20tier%20(Division%20One).)

[EalingGreen]

Ah, not sure about that. Sweden’s strengths are heavily weighed in attack so if they score first, which forces the opposition to open up – they are capable of picking teams off. As proved in that game.

It was 4-0 when Elanga came on btw.
Don't get me wrong, Sweden were clearly the better team, with better players and certainly deserved their win. But it wasn't altogether the battering a 5-1 score might suggest, as the game stats indicate, esp xG, where Sweden's was 1.79 vs NI's 1.40:
https://footystats.org/international/northern-ireland-national-team-vs-sweden-national-team-h2h-stats
All of which imo is testament to Sweden's brilliant finishing on the night being the key differential.

But even if you don't accept that, you cannot assess a team's progress, or lack thereof, on the basis of one friendly in Scandinavia in March, in front of 14k fans in a 50k stadium. (Same applies to Sweden as much as NI.)

[ifk101]

But it wasn't altogether the battering a 5-1 score might suggest, as the game stats indicate, esp xG, where Sweden's was 1.79 vs NI's 1.40:
https://footystats.org/international/northern-ireland-national-team-vs-sweden-national-team-h2h-stats

That feels a bit off. The following lists the shots in the game – https://www.365scores.com/football/match/friendly-international-570/northern-ireland-sweden-2371-5037-570
8 of the 14 shots registered by NI were outside the box, 4 of Sweden’s 16 shots (of which Isak scored with one) were outside the box. Not sure of the accuracy of the xG data you shared, seems too even. This article gives a xG of 3.02 vs 1.06, which feels more “correct”. ) https://www.mykhel.com/football/northern-ireland-learning-experience-after-loss-to-sweden-011-349889.html


All of which imo is testament to Sweden's brilliant finishing on the night being the key differential.

Only 1 of the Swedish goals could be characterised as “brilliant finishing” – Isak’s strike from outside the box. 3 of the goals were scored from inside the 6 yard box. Sema’s goal (3rd on the night) was scored just outside the 6 yard box – and note every NI player was inside the 18 yard box for that goal.


But even if you don't accept that, you cannot assess a team's progress, or lack thereof, on the basis of one friendly in Scandinavia in March, in front of 14k fans in a 50k stadium. (Same applies to Sweden as much as NI.)

If you are happy, good - no need for the previous window dressing. It was all a bit simplicity for my taste; sit low and tight, play low percentage balls – but others that post here would like us to play that way so no biggie. But yes, can’t assess progress/ lack of. Will leave it there.

[Fixer82]

Alan Browne playing well and won man of the match against Wednesday.
Definitely deserves a recall considering our options in midfield.
I like Knight but he’s not the type of player to get stuck in to tackles in the middle of the park like Browne imo