2024 final table

[patsdad]

What else would you be doing on a slow Sunday morning when there's only 29 games left in the league but casting an eye over the likely outcome of each one to see how it ends up.

I'll admit to a Pats bias (though we're unarguably the form team), but here's what I ended up with.

61 points Derry (winner on GD)
61 points Shels
55 points Pats
54 points Rovers (4th on GD)
54 points Galway
51 points Waterford
50 points Sligo
36 points Bohs
32 points Drogs
28 points Dundalk

I see Derry needing to beat Shels in the last game and doing so.

[D24Saint]

What else would you be doing on a slow Sunday morning when there's only 29 games left in the league but casting an eye over the likely outcome of each one to see how it ends up.

I'll admit to a Pats bias (though we're unarguably the form team), but here's what I ended up with.

61 points Derry (winner on GD)
61 points Shels
55 points Pats
54 points Rovers (4th on GD)
54 points Galway
51 points Waterford
50 points Sligo
36 points Bohs
32 points Drogs
28 points Dundalk

I see Derry needing to beat Shels in the last game and doing so.

Saints fans will be dancing in the streets of Sligo if the table ends that way. The difference in us in the past few weeks have been miraculous work from SK.

[placid casual]

Pats have zero chance of finishing ahead of Rovers. They should be praying for derry to win the cup cos 4th is the best you can hope for and Pat's playing against Sligo away in last game of the season will probably decide 4th- And Sligo are very good at home.
Assuming Kelliher splashes the cash again in the off season,next year is the year we can look forward to acres of saint kenny guff in the media as they target a realistic title bid.
Patience is a virtue:)

[TonyD]

Pats have zero chance of finishing ahead of Rovers. They should be praying for derry to win the cup cos 4th is the best you can hope for and Pat's playing against Sligo away in last game of the season will probably decide 4th- And Sligo are very good at home.
Assuming Kelliher splashes the cash again in the off season,next year is the year we can look forward to acres of saint kenny guff in the media as they target a realistic title bid.
Patience is a virtue:)

Next Friday will likely tell a tale on that. The odds are that you’re right, but zero chance is very strong. I agree with you that next season is when we should really come into our own. Not convinced that much more cash needs to be splashed now, depending on who, if anyone, leaves of course. I like the look of our squad now. We should have Mason Melia for another year, and if Keena can find his scoring boots, and Elbouzedi and Mulraney continue the form they’re in now, that’s as good a front four as you’ll find in the league. If we can hang on to Palmer in midfield that area looks strong too, with Forrestor, Lennon, Leavy and Brandon Kavanagh( who was superb the other night btw) and even McClelland and Aaron Bolger, who are fine back up players.Defence looks ok too. Grivosti has come back well, Redmond is Redmond and Axel Sjoberg has been terrific since he got his fitness sorted.

[patsdad]

Pats have zero chance of finishing ahead of Rovers. They should be praying for derry to win the cup cos 4th is the best you can hope for and Pat's playing against Sligo away in last game of the season will probably decide 4th- And Sligo are very good at home.
Assuming Kelliher splashes the cash again in the off season,next year is the year we can look forward to acres of saint kenny guff in the media as they target a realistic title bid.
Patience is a virtue:)

I’d be confident we can draw in Tallaght on Friday. And I’ve only given us a draw in Sligo too. But I think we’ll win our home games and the trips to Dalymount and Tolka. Of course you can stay ahead of us if you win most of your other matches. Not sure you will though.

[oriel]

Ambitious by Pats thinking of 3rd when they are currently sitting in 7th spot !

[pineapple stu]

They're only five points off it, and in the last five games they've picked up four points more than Sligo, five points more than Rovers/Galway and Drogheda, and more again than the others.

I don't see why not aim for it.

[placid casual]

We should have Mason Melia for another year, and if Keena can find his scoring boots, and Elbouzedi and Mulraney continue the form they’re in now, that’s as good a front four as you’ll find in the league. If we can hang on to Palmer in midfield that area looks strong too, with Forrestor, Lennon, Leavy and Brandon Kavanagh( who was superb the other night btw) and even McClelland and Aaron Bolger, who are fine back up players.Defence looks ok too. Grivosti has come back well, Redmond is Redmond and Axel Sjoberg has been terrific since he got his fitness sorted.
Probably more a thread for off season/next season but if I was you I'd be looking for a decent replacement for forrestor ( who won't win you a league imo) and good back up for Redmond. The wingers mentioned are quality and I've a soft spot for kavanagh who I was disappointed to see leave Rovers, keeper seems fine and grivosti and sjoberg the same but you'll need a *squad of 16/17 quality players to win the LOI and I don't think your there yet.

*Shels may prove that theory wrong,but I doubt it.

[Nah Nah Nah Nah]

Can’t see Waterford getting another 8 points

[patsdad]

Pats have zero chance of finishing ahead of Rovers.

Would you still put it at zero chance?

[placid casual]

No,id put it now at about 18% now. You won't be playing against a team so open like that again this season id imagine.

[brendy_éire]

No,id put it now at about 18% now.

I think you're being generous.

[oriel]

I can see Shels inching towards the league title, Derry runners up and Rovers 3rd, just as we have now.

Be some craic Derry don't win the cup (or finish in top 3) then as said in another thread, that race to finish 4th, will all be for nothing.

[2 Year Contract]

I can see Shels inching towards the league title, Derry runners up and Rovers 3rd, just as we have now.

Be some craic Derry don't win the cup (or finish in top 3) then as said in another thread, that race to finish 4th, will all be for nothing.

Think you’re spot on in terms of the league there. I don’t think I’ve ever seen 3 teams in a title race that are so cowardly. It’s only a league title lads, it won’t bite!

[oriel]

And to add more 'bite' its an interesting same 2 form the 3 going for the title this year compared to last day 1994/95 when Derry (best team) 'only' had to beat Athlone (possibly already relegated) to win the league (they drew) and Shels (not sure on permutations) had to win, they drew 1-1 with Pats, and Dundalk (we should have finished 4th that year - at best) beat Galway 2-0 to win the league by 1 point.

Mental day that was.

[Another Bohemia]

I can see Shels inching towards the league title, Derry runners up and Rovers 3rd, just as we have now.

Be some craic Derry don't win the cup (or finish in top 3) then as said in another thread, that race to finish 4th, will all be for nothing.

Drogheda are one of the form teams in the league and IMO should be favorites for the cup now. They have beaten Bohs and Derry in recent weeks. Have a striker that's finding a bit of form and look good in defence. The possibility of 4th not getting Europe is very real.

[oriel]

Think you’re spot on in terms of the league there. I don’t think I’ve ever seen 3 teams in a title race that are so cowardly. It’s only a league title lads, it won’t bite!

Again, its going to be so deflating after all the efforts of the teams going for 4th if Derry don't win the cup, and I think they won't, as much as Bohs are just ok this year, they will raise it for the cup semi, that's for sure.

Always think its more special, a team outside the top 3 winning the cup and getting the extra (huge) bonus of european qualification based on that win.

[sbgawa]

Could the FAI consider not awarding a league trophy this season on the basis that no one deserves it?

[sessylU]

I can see Shels dropping more points, but I can't not see Derry failing to capitalise when they do. Every single opportunity that presents itself, Derry let it pass them by.

Weird position to be in, where there is still a double there to be won, but also plenty of people calling for the manager to be sacked.

I love and hate this season.

[Martinho II]

I have a feeling that St Pats will be very close at season end. They are fully in form now! Pity SK wasnt there at start of season!

[placid casual]

Would you still put it at zero chance?

I'd say it's a 50/50 % now. Pat's could win every game to finish the season,whilst the top 3 teams all look out on their feet at this stage. If Derry win the cup Pats will definitely be in Europe anyway,but maybe Rovers should be looking for derry to win the cup.
3 massive games left are Rovers - Shels, then Pats-Derry and finally Derry -Shels.

[Jack B]

1. Galway
2. Pats
3. Sligo

Cup: Drogs


And if not why not.

[patsdad]

Some very interesting twists and turns since I posted that table. This weekend will tell a lot.

[A N Mouse]

Some very interesting twists and turns since I posted that table. This weekend will tell a lot.

It's all very glitw. And I don't hate it. I just can't enjoy it.

Unlikely, probably more so after this friday, but pats to field a weakened team against Derry to improve their own euro qualification chances going into the last day?

[patsdad]

It's all very glitw. And I don't hate it. I just can't enjoy it.

Unlikely, probably more so after this friday, but pats to field a weakened team against Derry to improve their own euro qualification chances going into the last day?


Not a chance. We may need every point if we’re to qualify.

[2 Year Contract]

It's all very glitw. And I don't hate it. I just can't enjoy it.

Unlikely, probably more so after this friday, but pats to field a weakened team against Derry to improve their own euro qualification chances going into the last day?

How would that even make sense? In what way would Pats losing to Derry instead of beating them help Pats European qualification hopes going into the last day?

[A N Mouse]

How would that even make sense? In what way would Pats losing to Derry instead of beating them help Pats European qualification hopes going into the last day?


I mean it's a fecking absurd suggestion, but it's a commentary on the nature of the league this season rather than a prediction.

But lets use our imaginations. This weekend could see 10 points separate the top 6, 8 the top 4, or 7 points the top 6 and 4 the top 4. Somewhere in there as unlikely as it is is a scenario where on the last day Derry could finish 2nd or 4th. And a point for Derry against Pat's would guarantee them third, while still keeping Pat's hope of finishing third in their own hands. Knowing that if they lost to Sligo, well Derry were in the cup final

Lets face we should all be buying lotto ticket if it transpires, but it's not beyond the realm of possibility given the way results have gone this year. Probably just needs an away win for Dundalk on friday to kick us off :D

[Glen Of Aherlow]

I mean it's a fecking absurd suggestion, but it's a commentary on the nature of the league this season rather than a prediction.

But lets use our imaginations. This weekend could see 10 points separate the top 6, 8 the top 4, or 7 points the top 6 and 4 the top 4. Somewhere in there as unlikely as it is is a scenario where on the last day Derry could finish 2nd or 4th. And a point for Derry against Pat's would guarantee them third, while still keeping Pat's hope of finishing third in their own hands. Knowing that if they lost to Sligo, well Derry were in the cup final

Lets face we should all be buying lotto ticket if it transpires, but it's not beyond the realm of possibility given the way results have gone this year. Probably just needs an away win for Dundalk on friday to kick us off :D

Jayz Stephen Hawking could'nt make sense of that one if he was still around

[nigel-harps1954]

My smart calculations have Shamrock Rovers winning the league on goal difference after Shels and Derry draw on the final day.

[placid casual]

My smart calculations have Shamrock Rovers winning the league on goal difference after Shels and Derry draw on the final day.
I think you need new batteries for your calculator there Nigel, the same way Rovers need a few batteries for their team

[bohsmug]

I mean it's a fecking absurd suggestion, but it's a commentary on the nature of the league this season rather than a prediction.

But lets use our imaginations. This weekend could see 10 points separate the top 6, 8 the top 4, or 7 points the top 6 and 4 the top 4. Somewhere in there as unlikely as it is is a scenario where on the last day Derry could finish 2nd or 4th. And a point for Derry against Pat's would guarantee them third, while still keeping Pat's hope of finishing third in their own hands. Knowing that if they lost to Sligo, well Derry were in the cup final

Lets face we should all be buying lotto ticket if it transpires, but it's not beyond the realm of possibility given the way results have gone this year. Probably just needs an away win for Dundalk on friday to kick us off :D


Pretty sure this still doesn't make any sense as to why it would suit Pats to get less points than are on offer. How many points are between each place in the top 5/6 going into the 2nd last game in this scenario and how many assumptions are Pats making about the outcome of the other games that kick off at the same time in order to decide that fielding a weakened team to specifically secure a draw is their best route to Europe?

[sbgawa]

My smart calculations have Shamrock Rovers winning the league on goal difference after Shels and Derry draw on the final day.

Wish i could share your optimisum we havent stepped up at all when needed and even with Shels in rag order with form, suspensions and injuries i wouldnt be sure of winning Sunday

[EatYerGreens]

Wish i could share your optimisum we havent stepped up at all when needed and even with Shels in rag order with form, suspensions and injuries i wouldnt be sure of winning Sunday

Shels are really not as good as the league table suggests, so I'd be surprised if you didn't at least take a point from them.

[A N Mouse]

Pretty sure this still doesn't make any sense as to why it would suit Pats to get less points than are on offer. How many points are between each place in the top 5/6 going into the 2nd last game in this scenario and how many assumptions are Pats making about the outcome of the other games that kick off at the same time in order to decide that fielding a weakened team to specifically secure a draw is their best route to Europe?

F*** me, in little over a week this thread has gone from pat's being 20/1 to make europe, to being nailed on, if only Derry can win the cup. I offer a hypothetical taking mad suggestions up a level and get asked to show my non existent maths.

Well here goes nothing.

If with two games left, Derry in second are three points clear of pat's and five clear of fourth. Then either of them could finish fourth. Then something something goal difference and a draw would guarantee Derry third and pats fourth.

Does it make sense, hell no, and I prefaced the whole thing with a bit of understatement about it being unlikely. But in a world that makes sense the form teams would be at the top of the table, and that 20/1 shot wouldn't be anywhere near even money. But such is the season we're having

[bohsmug]

F*** me, in little over a week this thread has gone from pat's being 20/1 to make europe, to being nailed on, if only Derry can win the cup. I offer a hypothetical taking mad suggestions up a level and get asked to show my non existent maths.

Well here goes nothing.

If with two games left, Derry in second are three points clear of pat's and five clear of fourth. Then either of them could finish fourth. Then something something goal difference and a draw would guarantee Derry third and pats fourth.

Does it make sense, hell no, and I prefaced the whole thing with a bit of understatement about it being unlikely. But in a world that makes sense the form teams would be at the top of the table, and that 20/1 shot wouldn't be anywhere near even money. But such is the season we're having

So Pats are 3 points behind Derry in 2nd, 3 points or less behind 3rd and decide to throw the game to put qualification completely out of their own hands? I kind of hope there's some kind of scenario where what you said turns out to be true in some kind of self-schadenfreude but I can't see any outcome where it suits Pats to not compete in the game in order to gain an advantage in the race for Europe. Other than trying not to injure a Derry player... maybe..?

On reflection I hope there's no self-schadenfreude, given Derry's semi final opposition.

[A N Mouse]

So Pats are 3 points behind Derry in 2nd, 3 points or less behind 3rd and decide to throw the game to put qualification completely out of their own hands? I kind of hope there's some kind of scenario where what you said turns out to be true in some kind of self-schadenfreude but I can't see any outcome where it suits Pats to not compete in the game in order to gain an advantage in the race for Europe. Other than trying not to injure a Derry player... maybe..?

On reflection I hope there's no self-schadenfreude, given Derry's semi final opposition.

Look once again very little thought went into the original comment as it wasn't a prediction just pondering how the results could get any weirder. And minimal thought went in arriving at a scenario. The point is the results required between now and the end of the month for something like that to be even possible.

If you insist on making it make sense then maybe reread it, as pat's are in third in the hypothetical. So let try and contrive that.

Shels 58pts (1w1d)
Derry 56pts (2w1l)
Pats 53pts (2w)
Rovers 51pts(2d)
Galway 50pts (1d1l)

Pats can win the league from here, but would still be behind Derry on gd if Derry win last match. Pats could beat Derry and still finish 4th, possibly ahead of Derry. A draw guarantees Derry second, on gd, and pats gd at that point would keep them third going into last match.

Course the thing to do is beat Derry and hope their last game is a draw.

Now is this scenario possible? Yeah. Is it probable? No, but maybe stick 10euro on Dundalk tonight as this season has been a roller coaster, and nobody seems to want to win it.

Back in reality. Shels need three wins, Derry need four. Neither of those seem likely, so it's there for anyone in to half the table. We'll know more on Sunday.

And Derry's season is either going for double or hanging on for second after the two bohs games

[bohsmug]

If you insist on making it make sense then maybe reread it, as pat's are in third in the hypothetical. So let try and contrive that.

Shels 58pts (1w1d)
Derry 56pts (2w1l)
Pats 53pts (2w)
Rovers 51pts(2d)
Galway 50pts (1d1l)

Pats can win the league from here, but would still be behind Derry on gd if Derry win last match. Pats could beat Derry and still finish 4th, possibly ahead of Derry. A draw guarantees Derry second, on gd, and pats gd at that point would keep them third going into last match.

Course the thing to do is beat Derry and hope their last game is a draw.


Ahhh I don't care but no, that doesn't make any sense. As you've said Pat's can win the league from there. So it would be nuts. I've also never known someone to play a weakened team specifically for a draw.

A draw with Derry would also put them in serious danger of Galway catching them and Pats falling to 5th, potentially only 1 point ahead of Galway going into the last game. Whereas a win would put them 3 - 6 points ahead of Galway going into the last game with a minimum of 6 goals better goal difference.

[2 Year Contract]

maybe stick 10euro on Dundalk tonight as this season has been a roller coaster, and nobody seems to want to win it.

I’ll be sticking my tenner on a draw, I’ve a feeling Galway will be fielding a weakened team in order to get a draw tonight to help their chances of winning the league by lulling the teams above them into a false sense of security that Galway are out of the title race ;)

[A N Mouse]

Ahhh I don't care but no, that doesn't make any sense. As you've said Pat's can win the league from there. So it would be nuts. I've also never known someone to play a weakened team specifically for a draw.

A draw with Derry would also put them in serious danger of Galway catching them and Pats falling to 5th, potentially only 1 point ahead of Galway going into the last game. Whereas a win would put them 3 - 6 points ahead of Galway going into the last game with a minimum of 6 goals better goal difference.

You seem to want this to make sense?

If it's enlightenment you want stick a score on Dundalk the night. And en-lightenment should be achieved by about nine thirty.

[patsdad]

The games since I posted the original prediction have told us a lot - most particularly about the collapse of Shels. It also looks as if we may be heading for an incredible final day with four contenders still standing and the title switching between all four over the course of the evening.


It’s to Shels’ credit how much they punched above their weight this season but two points in the last five games tells its own story. At a push they may win one of the home games against Waterford and Drogs but to win both would be some turnaround in their current form. I’d give them 58 points with a game to go and that’s probably generous.


Derry should win the next two at home to Bohs and Sligo but I expect they’ll lose in Richmond and draw in Oriel to give them 57 with a game to go.


Hoops won’t take more than 4 points from trips to Drogheda and Dundalk giving them 56 with a game to go.


On Pats’ recent results I’d expect wins in Dalymount and at home to Galway and Derry giving them 56 with a game to go.


The above results will leave Galway and Sligo at maximums of 53 with a game to go - and only one of them can make that as they play each other. So they’ll be out of contention for Europe.


So with a game to go it could be


Shels 58 (GD around 10)
Derry 57 (GD around 18)
Hoops 56 (GD around 13)
Pats 56 (GD around 13)


Pats at Sligo and Hoops at home to Waterford should both end up on 59 and either could pip the other on GD.
Derry or Shels will win the league by winning the game in the Brandywell and I can’t see that being Shels. If Shels lose they’ll finish 4th and will miss out on Europe if Drogs win the Cup.


It then gets truly epic if they are drawing in the Brandywell while Pats and Hoops are winning their games, as one of those may end up Champions on GD.


Not saying it’s going to happen but it becomes more plausible by the week. The FAI better make sure they have versions of the trophy to send to three different grounds!

[joey B]

Derry go from favourites this morning to 3rd favourites this evening according to the bookie,Rovers now favourites with the bookies to win it….

[nr637]

According to the lads on RTE 2 last night, Derry City don't deserve to be league champions after last night's display and their performances over the season!

Is it one of the best finishes to a Premier league season in years, Shels, Shamrocks or Derry with St. Pats, Galway, even Sligo still having a mathematical chance!

[patsdad]

Derry making fools of all of us amateur pundits. Dropping four points at home this weekend wasn’t plausible but it happened.

We could go into the final day with Shels, Shams, Derry and Pats each still possible champions and each still possibly missing out on Europe.

[joey B]

It’s all hindsight but Galway will be raging with that Dundalk game after how this weekend has shook out,they’d have been 2 points of the top with 3 games left…..

[Buckett]

We're still four off top with 3 to play, but everyone has written us off. Best defence in the league too!

[TonyD]

Derry making fools of all of us amateur pundits. Dropping four points at home this weekend wasn’t plausible but it happened.

We could go into the final day with Shels, Shams, Derry and Pats each still possible champions and each still possibly missing out on Europe.

Derry’s steadfast refusal to win a game at this stage is bordering on comical. I can only imagine the frustration of their fans. They really should be a few points clear at this stage. It’s really impossible to call at this stage. Anything could happen. Pats only four points off the top, which isn’t impossible, but the problem is we have three teams that would need to drop points. I think most Pats fans would be delighted if we got Europe. Anything better than that would an unlikely and incredible, bonus.

[sbgawa]

After Friday where Rovers and Derry draw their matches Pats win and Shels lose plus Sligo win.

Shels 54
Rovers 53
Derry 53
Pats 51
Sligo 51
Galway 50

6 teams can win the league with 2 matches to go....

[TonyD]

After Friday where Rovers and Derry draw their matches Pats win and Shels lose plus Sligo win.

Shels 54
Rovers 53
Derry 53
Pats 51
Sligo 51
Galway 50

6 teams can win the league with 2 matches to go....

If Pats win on Friday we’ll move to 53, unless I’ve been looking at the wrong table. In your scenario, that would leave a 3 way tie for second, with Shels just a point ahead. I think Shels might just get back to winning ways this week. In fact I can see the top 3 winning.

[patsdad]

Rovers 61
Pats 59 (2nd on GD)
Shels 59
Derry 56
Galway 54
Sligo 49
Waterford 45
Bohs 40
Drogs 37
Dundalk 26

If Rovers were to drop points it would have been tonight. Waterford and Dundalk are spent.
Shels will draw with Drogs and Derry.
Pats will beat Derry and Sligo.

[patsdad]

Pats have zero chance of finishing ahead of Rovers. They should be praying for derry to win the cup cos 4th is the best you can hope for and Pat's playing against Sligo away in last game of the season will probably decide 4th- And Sligo are very good at home.
Assuming Kelliher splashes the cash again in the off season,next year is the year we can look forward to acres of saint kenny guff in the media as they target a realistic title bid.
Patience is a virtue:)

I now agree we have zero chance of finishing ahead of Rovers. But 4th is certainly no longer the best we can hope for.