Euro 2008 seedings update (depressing reading)

[eirebhoy]

A lot of people talking about seedings so thought I'd post them up.

European Champs World Cup 2006
Team Played Points Played Points Avg Points
1 A Holland 8 19 10 28 2.611111111
2 A Czech 8 22 10 24 2.555555556
3 A France 8 24 8 16 2.5
4 A England 8 20 8 19 2.4375
5 A Portug. 10 24 2.4
6 A Sweden 8 17 8 21 2.375
7 A Croatia 8 16 8 20 2.25
8 B Germany 8 18 2.25
9 B Poland 8 13 9 24 2.176470588
10 B Italy 8 17 8 17 2.125
11 B Turkey 8 19 11 20 2.052631579
12 B Greece 8 18 10 18 2
13 B Spain 8 17 8 14 1.9375
14 Swiss 8 15 8 16 1.9375
15 B Romania 8 14 11 22 1.894736842
16 C Russia 8 14 10 19 1.833333333
17 C Ukraine 8 10 11 24 1.789473684
18 C Bulgar. 8 17 8 11 1.75
19 C Serbia 8 12 8 16 1.75
20 C Denmark 8 15 10 16 1.722222222
21 C Belgium 8 16 8 11 1.6875
22 C Latvia 8 16 11 15 1.631578947
23 D Norway 8 14 8 12 1.625
24 D Sloven. 8 14 8 12 1.625
25 D Bosnia 8 13 8 13 1.625
26 D Slovak. 8 10 10 19 1.611111111
27 D Ireland 8 11 8 13 1.5
28 D Hungary 8 11 8 13 1.5
29 D Scotla. 8 14 8 10 1.5
30 E Finland 8 10 10 16 1.444444444
31 E Israel 8 9 9 15 1.411764706
32 Austria 8 9 8 12 1.3125
33 E Estonia 8 8 10 14 1.222222222
34 E Lithua. 8 10 8 9 1.1875
35 E Albania 8 8 10 12 1.111111111
36 E Iceland 8 13 9 4 1
37 E Wales 8 13 8 2 0.9375
38 F Georgia 8 7 10 9 0.888888889
39 F Cyprus 8 8 8 4 0.75
40 F N.Irel 8 3 8 9 0.75
41 F Maced. 8 6 11 8 0.736842105
42 F Moldova 8 6 8 5 0.6875
43 F Belarus 8 3 8 7 0.625
44 F Armenia 8 7 11 4 0.578947368
45 Liecht. 8 1 11 8 0.473684211
46 Azerb. 8 4 9 3 0.411764706
47 Andorra 8 0 11 5 0.263157895
48 Malta 8 1 9 2 0.176470588
49 Faroes 8 1 9 1 0.117647059
50 Kazak. 10 0 0
51 Luxem. 8 0 10 0 0
52 San M. 8 0 8 0 0
2 wins gets us a total of 1.667 and hopefully into Pot C. Top 2 teams in the groups qualify automatically. No playoffs.

[Paulie]

2 wins gets us a total of 1.667 and hopefully into Pot C. Top 2 teams in the groups qualify automatically. No playoffs.

Are there fewer but larger qualifiying groups as a result of this or has the competition been expanded?

[eirebhoy]

Are there fewer but larger qualifiying groups as a result of this or has the competition been expanded?
There'll be 7 groups altogether. 1 will contain 8 teams, the rest will have 7. the top 2 in each group qualify automatically. Switzerland and Austria make up the 16 teams.

[Paulie]

Looks like a lot of travelling during that campaign so.

[NeilMcD]

Yeah I think it should be a great campaign for away trips I cant wait for it. But I cant wait for Germany either, actually I cant wait for Cyprus ha ha!!!

[NeilMcD]

Also I notice that Scotland gets an awful lot of slagging on these board etc. But they got to a playoff in the last campaign and we did not and they may get to a play off again and we may not. Also they are equal in the seeding as us with equal points per game average 1.5.

[Stuttgart88]

Scotland have been getting a lot of slagging everywhere but they have a lot of young players (Beattie, Maloney, McManus, Wallace, Fletcher, Burke, Riordan, Hartley, Lee Miller, Kenny Miller, Craig Gordon...) who we'd be getting quite cocky about if they were ours.

It irked me a few years ago when people like Charlie Nicholas were saying the cupboard was bare and it was all gloom ahead. They just had a totally inappropriate manager. I'm not saying they're world beaters by any stretch but they've got a pretty useful bunch of players coming through.

[NeilMcD]

Kennedy looked a very good player at Celtic before his injury for Scotland against Romanica.

[Kingdom]

Those seedings are based on results and it shows that we just haven't done it when it comes to the Uefa qualifying matches.

Saying that none of the Pot C teams would frighten you to death and only a couple of the Pot B teams would I be sh1tting it over.

Scotland have had some nice qualifying groups over the years though to be fair!!! even this one they are in a p!ss-poor group.

[NeilMcD]

But those groups are done on seeding which is done on results so it shold work out the same in the long run

[Qwerty]

Also I notice that Scotland gets an awful lot of slagging on these board etc. But they got to a playoff in the last campaign and we did not and they may get to a play off again and we may not. Also they are equal in the seeding as us with equal points per game average 1.5.

Well Scotland just did something Ireland hasn't done since '87 - that is beat a decent team away from home - Norway. Their performance against Italy was also good.

[Stuttgart88]

I've just gone through eirebhoy's list from Denmark through to Austria, looked at each team's remaining fixtures and given each team except Ireland the most points they can realistically hope for in their remaining games.

On that basis Ireland's seeding pot would be as follows:

2 more points or less: Pot E
3 or 4 more points: Pot D
6 more points: Pot C

We'd be pretty unlucky not to get into Pot C with 6 more points though it's far from certain.

[Irish_Praha]

If we do end up in Pot D what teams would you like you play?
For me:

A - Croatia (not the force they were and we know them pretty well)
B - Greece (seems like they have been found out, although it would be easy for Kerr to build them up as hot faves as they are Euro champs)
C - Bulgaria or Latvia (dont know much about either but they are doing bad in the current qualification.)
D - Us
E and F - Would be nice to get Isreal again :) but maybe better to avoid them so two teams like Luxembourg and Wales would be good so the team doesn't have any awkward trips to Eastern Europe before we play one of the tops seeds in the group.

[Dublin12]

Imagine this :eek: :eek:

England
Germany
Ukraine
Ireland
Israel
N.Ireland

[tricky_colour]

Lets hope we draw the number one A team, Holland.

We usually stuff them, so no need to be depressed!!!

[eirebhoy]

Gone are the days when there were 2 or 3 decent teams in every group at most.

[tricky_colour]

What get's me is we are ranked 21 in the world, down from about 15, yet
we are ranked 27th in Europe.

That needs some explaining.

We are ranked 14th in Europe going by FIFA
http://www.fifa.com/en/mens/statistics/index/0,2548,27275-Sep-2005,00.html

Which would put us in pot B.

[Irish_Praha]

Worst for me would be:

Netherlands
Italy
Ukraine
Ireland
Israel
Albania

All those teams would be more than capable of taking points off us.

[gspain]

For Euro2004 France (as holders) were number 1 seeds despite being a number 2 from the rankings. They should by right do the same for Greece and probably will if it is Croatia who move down. Maybe not if it's a big nation.

We could end up in some right stinkers there but then the only group of the last 5 we've come out of was by far the toughest with Portugal and Holland so who knows.

[Irish_Praha]

BTW the draw will take place on the 27th of Jan next year in Switzerland. So we have a few months to wait yet.

[Schumi]

What get's me is we are ranked 21 in the world, down from about 15, yet
we are ranked 27th in Europe.

That needs some explaining.

We are ranked 14th in Europe going by FIFA
http://www.fifa.com/en/mens/statistics/index/0,2548,27275-Sep-2005,00.html

Which would put us in pot B.
That's because the FIFA ones include friendly results and the European ones don't.

[eirebhoy]

For Euro2004 France (as holders) were number 1 seeds despite being a number 2 from the rankings. They should by right do the same for Greece and probably will if it is Croatia who move down. Maybe not if it's a big nation.
I'm not sure but are you getting mixed up with the qualifiers and finals?

[Stuttgart88]

There's a big difference between the way the UEFA seeding co-efficient & the FIFA rankings are calculated.

As eirebhoy's table shows, UEFA simply averages the points per game in the previous two full qualification campaigns (so in this case WC06 qualification & Euro2004 qualification) to determine the seedings, or pots,for the next competition's qualification groups

FIFA's ranking system is far more complicated with different weightings attached to friendlies, qualification games, finals games etc., goals scored, degree of difficulty of the opposition, home or away etc. It also takes into account games going back over a number of yeras (8 I think) though the previous 12 months' results are given a higher weighting. Therefore a series of good results 13 months ago no longer have the same contribution to your current standing as they did in the last published rankings.

It's all explained here http://www.fifa.com/en/mens/statistics/rank/procedures/0,2540,3,00.html though it's pretty complicated.

They say they have a computer programme that works it all out but it wouldn't surprse me if they fiddled the rankings (or the variables that contribute to the calculations) to suit the WC Finals Group Seedings that they want!

I think the WC Finals Group Seeds are determined at least partially, if not fully, by the FIFA rankings. Is this right?

Also, what system is used to determine the pots for the WC qualification groups? The same as UEFA's?

[finn]

You could well be right. The point is that, although your link does give an idea of how the rankings are calculated, it doesn't give all the details - various coefficients being used aren't given. It isn't possible, therefore, to calculate the rankings based on the information FIFA gives us, which means that they can rig the rankings whenever they want. I am not saying they are doing this, but it wouldn't surprise me.

well I was in the states a couple of weeks ago, when they qualified, and the talk there was that after they qualified, because of their ranking they would be seeded in the world cup draw!!!!!

couple this with at least one very very poor team getting through as a result of the Asia v North/Central America playoff, its pretty poor that some more european teams are not there!

P

[shakermaker1982]

That is making me depressed!!! No easy teams left in Europe as we have found out in this campaign (well Isreal kind of count in footballing terms), the old Soviet Union countries are coming along and competing as well.

[gspain]

well I was in the states a couple of weeks ago, when they qualified, and the talk there was that after they qualified, because of their ranking they would be seeded in the world cup draw!!!!!

couple this with at least one very very poor team getting through as a result of the Asia v North/Central America playoff, its pretty poor that some more european teams are not there!

P

This would be the U.S. team that were totally outclassed in the last world cup when they got there only beating Portugal 3-2 and eventually losing out in the quarter finals. :)

Mexico also got through to the 2nd phase eliminating Croatia while Costa Rica did not disgrace themselves either losing out to the wunner and a beaten semi finalist.

[pineapple stu]

Costa Rica did not disgrace themselves either losing out to the wunner and a beaten semi finalist.
Drawing with the latter too, I believe.

Costa Rica v. Brazil was one of the best games of the last World Cup - neither team had a notion how to defend! :)