Nations League 2024/25

[pineapple stu]

A new thread maybe?

Draw at 5pm today.

Pot A - Austria, Czechia, England, Wales
Pot B - Finland, Ukraine, Iceland, Norway
Pot C - Slovenia, Ireland, Albania, Montenegro
Pot D - Georgia, Greece, Turkey, Kazakhstan

England, Norway, Greece the obvious nightmare draw there - and a huge difference between that and Wales, Iceland and Georgia

Everyone progresses to something from the group - first gets promoted, fourth gets relegated, second goes into a promotion play-off (against third in League A) and third goes into a relegation play-off (against second in League C). So the equivalent last time is we would have had to win a play-off against one of Luxembourg, Azerbaijan, Kosovo or Bulgaria. You'd hope we would win that, but...

Group games in Sept/Oct/Nov this year. Play-offs in March next year.

2024/25 UEFA Nations League(uefa.com) (https://www.uefa.com/uefanationsleague/)
2024/25 UEFA Nations League(wikipedia) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024%E2%80%9325_UEFA_Nations_League)
2024/25 UEFA Nations League B (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024%E2%80%9325_UEFA_Nations_League_B)
2024/25 UEFA Nations League B Group 2 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024%E2%80%9325_UEFA_Nations_League_B#Group_2)

[Razors left peg]

https://www.uefa.tv/video/live/258581/

For anyone that wants to watch it

[backstothewall]

It would be extremely good to get Iceland. After that there's not much in it. Avoiding England maybe, but we would be able to play those games like FA Cup ties and maybe get something the team from Pot B wouldn't be able to match.

[SkStu]

We get England :D

[Eirambler]

When did we last get a good draw in anything? Absolutely cursed the last few years.

[SkStu]

England
Finland
Republic of Ireland
Greece

FFS :D :D

[JR89]

So we'll be doing well to avoid the relegation play off then.

[pineapple stu]

And should have gotten Kazakhstan instead, but they had to move group cos they couldn't travel to us and England.

That's about as bad as you could have gotten I think. Ukraine/Norway instead of Finland is the only way it could have been worse. Could well be looking at relegation (again...)

But new manager optimism will lift things! :)

[Eirambler]

Looks like a fourth place finish to me, unless we can maybe turn over Finland. Close to as bad as it could have been, once again.

If Carsley was waiting on this draw to make his decision, he may have just got his answer.

[pineapple stu]

When did we last get a good draw in anything? Absolutely cursed the last few years.
I guess dumping the North in the Euro 2020 pot with Holland and Germany while we got Denmark and Switzerland?

[seanfhear]

We'll probably win the Group.

[Diggs246]

England
Finland
Republic of Ireland
Greece

FFS :D :D

We can beat Finland and Greece lads

Kenny has obviously done a job on our confidence.

Believe ffs

[Eirambler]

I guess dumping the North in the Euro 2020 pot with Holland and Germany while we got Denmark and Switzerland?

That was more the lesser of two evils than anything.

France dropping down to second seeds last time and we get them followed by England dropping to League B and we get them too. About a 1 in 40 chance of that happening by my calculations. Then getting Greece as about the strongest team in their pot twice as well to boot. Unbelievable, absolutely cursed. As pointed out by Dan McDonnell today, this may well have a knock on impact on our Euro 2028 qualification hopes as well.

[SkStu]

We can beat Finland and Greece lads

Kenny has obviously done a job on our confidence.

Believe ffs

Of course we can (in theory) but two of the three teams we drew are probably the ones we would have least wanted from the pot.

[seanfhear]

We can beat Finland and Greece lads

Kenny has obviously done a job on our confidence.

Believe ffsWhy would we ( The Irish ) be afraid of Finland or Greece ~ Give us a decent manager and we have nothing to fear but fear itself.

[tetsujin1979]

I make it six wins from 29 games against those three sides?
https://www.instagram.com/p/C3GHjdltvEH/

[texidub]

We have to be positive -- even if that means being motivated by revenge.

Revenge against England for 800 years of boasting about their World Cup win in 1966. Revenge against Greece for our last match against them, which they had the audacity not to lose. And revenge against Finland for eh... um... not participating in the Cod Wars.

And a special mention for Rice and Grealish... both of whom I wish all the best if they have the fupping cheek to come over and play us.

Tactics and team selection will also be important, but I think there's enough ideas here for the new manager to work with.

[backstothewall]

The game against England will be awesome. I can't imagine if Cromwell himself showed up with 3 lions on his shirt he'd be treated any worse than Rice and Grealish will get in Lansdowne Road.

Bring this on.

[Insidetherock]

The cunning plan... drop down to League C for the Euro qualifiers and win through the play off route there

[seanfhear]

The England games should be money spinners anyway.

Maybe Carsley will like to go up against Southgate ( If Southgate is still the England manager ) ~ Or just go up against England.

Of course England could be European Champions !

[Razors left peg]

Belgium, Switzerland, Hungry and Portugal in friendlies 1st. If things don't go well we could have new man with 4 losses from 4 heading into NL in September. Could easily lose 3 games there before Xmas so we could have the Carsley out campaign going in full voice before end of this year....

[pineapple stu]

On the flip side, Kenny managed three draws and two goals from eight games against those teams (I'm discounting Belgium B, unless they do the same this year) so it's a low bar for the new manager to show improvement...

Wonder if Poyet still wants to jump ship? Or will Carsley want to manage against England? (And he really might)

[Razors left peg]

Ah realistically there are upsides to the draw. We would have taken Finland before it starts. Greece is good opportunity for revenge and hopefully we'll be vastly improved by time we face them. England should hammer us, but it's a derby and we can raise our game against better opposition. They also might attract a sponsor with the high profile nature of the games.

The new manager should look at it as a good challenge, but I have to say if they announce Lennon on the back of this I'll be extremely disillusioned

[pineapple stu]

England should win all six games which may help us get second. Turns out into a three-team group, not one where we might be expected to get a result off the top seed

[Eirambler]

Unfortunately second, while a good result, would be useless in terms of World Cup playoff qualification. Meaning the qualification groups are now our only real hope. But this tough draw, plus the run of difficult friendlies we have lined up, limits our chances of getting a second seeding for those groups, meaning another shocker of a draw could be on the way.

We just seem to be on a negative spiral of bad results and bad draws that we can't seem to get out of. I look at the likes of Greece and Norway who have gone 10 and 20 years without a qualification and that looks to be the road we're heading down too. Benefitting from an easier qualification path for euro 2028 as hosts is about the only positive I can see at the moment, to maybe haul us out of this cycle and back towards where we want to be.

[pineapple stu]

It'd get us a promotion playoff against a League A team at least - heck of a difference between that and a relegation playoff against a League C team.

We could even get lucky and draw, say, Scotland or Israel in a playoff and win and get promoted. One season in League A, almost a guaranteed Euro 2028 playoff spot, and a few quid extra off the Delaney debt

[CraftyToePoke]

so we could have the Carsley out campaign going in full voice before end of this year....

Might be an idea to get him in at least first, before we focus ourselves on getting him out again ;)

[Fixer82]

I know I’ll probably get lectured for saying this but I still don’t understand the Nations League

[seanfhear]

I know I’ll probably get lectured for saying this but I still don’t understand the Nations League
What happens in the nations league stays in the nations league !

[Razors left peg]

I know I’ll probably get lectured for saying this but I still don’t understand the Nations League
It's the same as a Tracker Mortgage

[geysir]

Though it's flattering to be wanted even for the wrong reasons, those of us in Iceland wouldn't have batted a lid if 'we' had drawn Ireland, our (sometimes vastly) inferior sporting neighbors, in any event at present we have more important things ( such as Euro play offs) on our plate.

On Ireland's draw, what's important? avoid relegation, aim to at least finish 2nd, both are doable but to beat England might need a manager who has been shunned by the FA or has something personal to prove to them.

[The Fly]

The game against England will be awesome. I can't imagine if Cromwell himself showed up with 3 lions on his shirt he'd be treated any worse than Rice and Grealish will get in Lansdowne Road.

Bring this on.
I don’t get any of the ill-feeling towards Grealish tbh. He never played for the senior team.

[The Fly]

Though it's flattering to be wanted even for the wrong reasons, those of us in Iceland wouldn't have batted a lid if 'we' had drawn Ireland, our (sometimes vastly) inferior sporting neighbors, in any event at present we have more important things ( such as Euro play offs) on our plate.

On Ireland's draw, what's important? avoid relegation, aim to at least finish 2nd, both are doable but to beat England might need a manager who has been shunned by the FA or has something personal to prove to them.
How did you end up in Iceland btw?

[John83]

I know I’ll probably get lectured for saying this but I still don’t understand the Nations League
Higher stakes than friendlies. I just wish the supposed benefit of playing teams on a comparable level shows up some day.


I don’t get any of the ill-feeling towards Grealish tbh. He never played for the senior team.
If Rice hadn't been a thing, it probably wouldn't be as touchy a subject.

[pineapple stu]

I know I’ll probably get lectured for saying this but I still don’t understand the Nations League
I think it's similar to the early rounds of Only Connect as explained by Victoria Coren-Mitchell.

I like it though.

[seanfhear]

How did you end up in Iceland btw?Is it the Shop or the Country ? !

[SkStu]

Though it's flattering to be wanted even for the wrong reasons, those of us in Iceland wouldn't have batted a lid if 'we' had drawn Ireland, our (sometimes vastly) inferior sporting neighbors, in any event at present we have more important things ( such as Euro play offs) on our plate.

On Ireland's draw, what's important? avoid relegation, aim to at least finish 2nd, both are doable but to beat England might need a manager who has been shunned by the FA or has something personal to prove to them.

a worrying and dangerous shift in language there Geysir. ;)

[backstothewall]

This is an ideal time to ask as no one has any pre-programmed biases because of who the manager is etc.

How many points do people think represents success in that group?

[Razors left peg]

This is an ideal time to ask as no one has any pre-programmed biases because of who the manager is etc.

How many points do people think represents success in that group?

It's a good question. Best case scenario is home wins against Greece and Finland, Draws away. Anything against England is a bonus. That's the best case, not exactly what I expect to happen

[CraftyToePoke]

I know I’ll probably get lectured for saying this but I still don’t understand the Nations League

I can't work it out either, I rely on others on here for broad stroke updates of the event sequences we require. I like it because it is better than friendlies which established players used to not bother with sometimes, it keeps things interesting for us in these low tide times following the side, a giver of false hope basically is what it is, but its necessary false hope because we have f u c k all else.

[backstothewall]

It's a good question. Best case scenario is home wins against Greece and Finland, Draws away. Anything against England is a bonus. That's the best case, not exactly what I expect to happen

I think that's staggeringly pessimistic considering the players we have available to us compared to Greece and Finland.


This is an ideal time to ask as no one has any pre-programmed biases because of who the manager is etc.

How many points do people think represents success in that group?

Minimum acceptable return: For me 6 points is the bare minimum.

We should be winning against Finland in Dublin. And we should really get something in Helsinki. We can't contemplate losing in Dublin against Greece either. And there should be something else picked up along the way. That might be it a point against England, a win in Helsinki, beating the Greeks in Dublin or taking a point in Athens. Anything less than that just isn't good enough.

Success: 9 points or more.
A good campaign would be winning home and away against Finland, and a win in Dublin against Greece.

Approaching Best Case: 13 points or more.
That's 6 points against Finland, take at least 4 points against Greece, and either upgrade to a win in Athens and nab a point vs England or fluke a win against England.

[pineapple stu]

A best case scenario of unbeaten against Finland/Greece - who beat us four times from four under Kenny - is "staggeringly pessimistic"?

Bloody hell fire

[backstothewall]

He was sacked for a reason lads. We can and should be doing significantly better than we were under Kenny.

[nigel-harps1954]

We're going to win the group. The scoundrel Kenny is gone and Neil Lennons BIG are going to tear into Carsleys Englanders.

[pineapple stu]

We can send should improve, sure, but to say adding an extra eight points to our haul is "staggeringly pessimistic"?

Eh - no

[Insidetherock]

It'd get us a promotion playoff against a League A team at least - heck of a difference between that and a relegation playoff against a League C team.

We could even get lucky and draw, say, Scotland or Israel in a playoff and win and get promoted. One season in League A, almost a guaranteed Euro 2028 playoff spot, and a few quid extra off the Delaney debt

What's all this "promotion play off", "relegation play off stuff"

There's no promotion play off.. you finish as a Group winner.. you're promoted

You finish 4th in your group, you're relegated

Finish 2nd or 3rd, you stay in Path B

The only play offs are finish top of group, and don't qualify automatically, there's a place for Path B teams via a play off

Historically, if you finish 2nd in Path B, you're guaranteed at least a shot at Euros via the play off

For the last WC, the four group winners got a shot at a WC play off.. but that was when there were 3 team groups, so only 12 teams in Path A.. now Path A has 16 teams,

Europe get 16 spots..

10 or 12 groups (likely 12, winners go in direct)

4 extra space will come from Group A teams not qualified, plus 4 from Group B (4 winners, or next best)

[seanfhear]

He was sacked for a reason lads. We can and should be doing significantly better than we were under Kenny.
Kenny was worse than worse.

[nigel-harps1954]

What's all this "promotion play off", "relegation play off stuff"

There's no promotion play off.. you finish as a Group winner.. you're promoted

You finish 4th in your group, you're relegated

Finish 2nd or 3rd, you stay in Path B

The only play offs are finish top of group, and don't qualify automatically, there's a place for Path B teams via a play off

Historically, if you finish 2nd in Path B, you're guaranteed at least a shot at Euros via the play off

For the last WC, the four group winners got a shot at a WC play off.. but that was when there were 3 team groups, so only 12 teams in Path A.. now Path A has 16 teams,

Europe get 16 spots..

10 or 12 groups (likely 12, winners go in direct)

4 extra space will come from Group A teams not qualified, plus 4 from Group B (4 winners, or next best)

There are playoffs for second. The four League B runners-up play the four League A third place teams in March 2025.

[elatedscum]

I think that's staggeringly pessimistic considering the players we have available to us compared to Greece and Finland.

I don't know Finland's players that well, except Lukas Hradecky, Tom Galvez (an English born Man City prospect who they've smartly capped at 18), Glen Kamara, Fredrik Jensen and Teemu Pukki.

Saying that, I think Greece's squad is, on paper, better than ours... I think most would agree

[pineapple stu]

There are playoffs for second. The four League B runners-up play the four League A third place teams in March 2025.
Yep, this.

New format for this year.

Good addition I think