Nations League 2024/25

[backstothewall]

Finland had 1 player plying his trade in one of the top 5 European leagues in their most recent squad. He's the sub goalkeeper at Bayer Leverkusen. 11 of the 24 play in MLS or one of the Scandinavian leagues.

According to transfermarkt their most valuable play is Glen Kamara who they value at €6.00m, and the total valuation of their squad is €32.70m.

Evan Ferguson is our most valuable player, valued at €60m. They value our squad at €166.13m.

Losing home and away to them in 2020 was a national embarrassment. Kenny should have been run out on a rail at that point. That we wasted another 3 years tilting at a League of Ireland windmill doesn't make Finland a good team.

Oh, and their big threat back then was Pukki, who was a goal-scorer any mid-table premier league side would have been glad to have had. He'll be 34 by the time we face them and can't be the same player he was back then.


Tom Galvez (an English born Man City prospect who they've smartly capped at 18)

Smart move. We should be doing that sort of thing much more often than we do.


Saying that, I think Greece's squad is, on paper, better than ours... I think most would agree

I don't think there's all that much in it. I'd say fairly similar quality available to Gus Poyet no matter what dugout he finds himself in.

[samhaydenjr]

Unfortunately second, while a good result, would be useless in terms of World Cup playoff qualification. Meaning the qualification groups are now our only real hope. But this tough draw, plus the run of difficult friendlies we have lined up, limits our chances of getting a second seeding for those groups, meaning another shocker of a draw could be on the way.

We just seem to be on a negative spiral of bad results and bad draws that we can't seem to get out of. I look at the likes of Greece and Norway who have gone 10 and 20 years without a qualification and that looks to be the road we're heading down too. Benefitting from an easier qualification path for euro 2028 as hosts is about the only positive I can see at the moment, to maybe haul us out of this cycle and back towards where we want to be.
Actually, second place would quite possibly be enough to get us into the playoffs. We could even come third and get into the playoffs as long as the group winner and runners up from the main qualification campaign are almost all ranked above us in the Nations League. 12 group winners qualify for the Finals, 12 runners up go into the playoffs, to be joined by the four highest ranked Nations League teams who do not qualify through the main qualification campaign. So, it's possible for the worst third-placed League B team to get into the WC playoffs.

[elatedscum]

Finland had 1 player plying his trade in one of the top 5 European leagues in their most recent squad. He's the sub goalkeeper at Bayer Leverkusen. 11 of the 24 play in MLS or one of the Scandinavian leagues.

According to transfermarkt their most valuable play is Glen Kamara who they value at €6.00m, and the total valuation of their squad is €32.70m.

Evan Ferguson is our most valuable player, valued at €60m. They value our squad at €166.13m.

Losing home and away to them in 2020 was a national embarrassment. Kenny should have been run out on a rail at that point. That we wasted another 3 years tilting at a League of Ireland windmill doesn't make Finland a good team.

Oh, and their big threat back then was Pukki, who was a goal-scorer any mid-table premier league side would have been glad to have had. He'll be 34 by the time we face them and can't be the same player he was back then.



Smart move. We should be doing that sort of thing much more often than we do.



I don't think there's all that much in it. I'd say fairly similar quality available to Gus Poyet no matter what dugout he finds himself in.

A lot of that is fair enough but I will say two things. I’ve seen a lot of Leverkusen this season and Hradecky isn’t a sub. He’s their captain and has started 19 of 20 games. Not sure quite why he was dropped for that one game but was reinstalled immediately. He’s widely considered one of the three outstanding keepers in the Bundesliga over the last decade alongside Neuer and Gulacsi.

Other thing I’d say is transfermarkt comes with its usual caveats that a lot of it is based on age and contract length. So Kevin De Bruyne is valued the same as Ferguson and Salah is at €65m. Van Dijk is at €35m. However if you wanted to win a game tomorrow, you’d definitely chose them over Evan.

Saying that, I would assume we have a better squad than Finland on paper but I’ve never seen Hakans, Olila, Suhonen, Peltola or Antman play and you do get excellent young players (age 21-23) plying their trade in the second tier in France and Germany along with the MLS and the Norwegian league. So maybe they have a Mahrez or a Almeiron that we don’t know about. Unlikely - but I wasn’t gonna commit to saying they were **** when I had only seen a handful of players. The fact that they are second seeds presumably means they’re not that bad (or they got a very lucky draw in the previous group)

Re the Greek squad. If you asked me objectively, I think if you’re glass half full, you could argue that we would have 6 players in a combined 11 - but glass half empty and you could also argue that the Greeks could have 9 of a combined 11. I think only at right back and centre back are we guaranteed a player. As good as Evan is, Pavlidis has scored 20 goals in 20 games for AZ in the Eredivisie - so right now, it’s definitely a selection choice. Maybe Bazunu gets in over Vlachodimis. Maybe Ogbene and Cullen also get in, but maybe not too.

[CSAD]

A lot of that is fair enough but I will say two things. I’ve seen a lot of Leverkusen this season and Hradecky isn’t a sub. He’s their captain and has started 19 of 20 games. Not sure quite why he was dropped for that one game but was reinstalled immediately. He’s widely considered one of the three outstanding keepers in the Bundesliga over the last decade alongside Neuer and Gulacsi.

Other thing I’d say is transfermarkt comes with its usual caveats that a lot of it is based on age and contract length. So Kevin De Bruyne is valued the same as Ferguson and Salah is at €65m. Van Dijk is at €35m. However if you wanted to win a game tomorrow, you’d definitely chose them over Evan.

Saying that, I would assume we have a better squad than Finland on paper but I’ve never seen Hakans, Olila, Suhonen, Peltola or Antman play and you do get excellent young players (age 21-23) plying their trade in the second tier in France and Germany along with the MLS and the Norwegian league. So maybe they have a Mahrez or a Almeiron that we don’t know about. Unlikely - but I wasn’t gonna commit to saying they were **** when I had only seen a handful of players. The fact that they are second seeds presumably means they’re not that bad (or they got a very lucky draw in the previous group)

Re the Greek squad. If you asked me objectively, I think if you’re glass half full, you could argue that we would have 6 players in a combined 11 - but glass half empty and you could also argue that the Greeks could have 9 of a combined 11.I think only at right back and centre back are we guaranteed a player. As good as Evan is, Pavlidis has scored 20 goals in 20 games for AZ in the Eredivisie - so right now, it’s definitely a selection choice. Maybe Bazunu gets in over Vlachodimis. Maybe Ogbene and Cullen also get in, but maybe not too.


"The Greeks could have 9 in a combined 11"...I've seen some hilarious takes where Irish fans desperately try to talk up the opposition but this has to be a new one. Idk why fans who clearly know very little about the Greek squad feel the need to talk them up so much!

[tetsujin1979]

"The Greeks could have 9 in a combined 11"...I've seen some hilarious takes where Irish fans desperately try to talk up the opposition but this has to be a new one. Idk why fans who clearly know very little about the Greek squad feel the need to talk them up so much!

We have seen quite a bit of the Greek squad over the last 12 months, I think we're reasonably educated on their abilities

[pineapple stu]

11 of the 24 play in MLS or one of the Scandinavian leagues.
Yeah, don't go saying that in Finland. Finland is not in Scandinavia no more than we're in the UK.

elated has given a good response to your summary of the teams, but I would add that while two of the Finns are playing in top five leagues (there's a guy at Augsburg as well), we're not exactly over-endowed with players in those leagues ourselves, and if you take out those in big relegation trouble you're left with Kelleher, Doherty and Ferguson I think. Most of our squad is bog-standard Championship players.

You would certainly hope a new manager would have us competing with Finland and Greece and the three-team mini group (behind England) would be very tight. But that's a long way from saying that a best case scenario of going unbeaten against them is "staggeringly pessimistic". That makes no sense at all.

[pineapple stu]

Fixture list is out -

Saturday, 7 September: Ireland v England, KO 5pm
Tuesday, 10 September 10: Ireland v Greece, KO 7.45pm
Thursday, 10 October: Finland v Ireland, KO 7.45pm
Sunday, 13 October: Greece v Ireland, KO 7.45pm
Thursday, 14 November: Ireland v Finland, KO 7.45pm
Sunday, 17 November: England v Ireland, KO 5pm

Greece at home in the second game is huge. If we lose that, then the October games look nasty in terms of avoiding relegation.

[CSAD]

We have seen quite a bit of the Greek squad over the last 12 months, I think we're reasonably educated on their abilities

One team looked well set up and knew what they were supposed to be doing, the other didnt and we were the later.

[ltfc_2004]

Will the guards allow a 5pm kick off on a Saturday against England ?

[Fixer82]

Is it the Shop or the Country ? !

The shop is gone out of Ireland so it's abroad anyway

[backstothewall]

A lot of that is fair enough but I will say two things. I’ve seen a lot of Leverkusen this season and Hradecky isn’t a sub. He’s their captain and has started 19 of 20 games. Not sure quite why he was dropped for that one game but was reinstalled immediately. He’s widely considered one of the three outstanding keepers in the Bundesliga over the last decade alongside Neuer and Gulacsi.

Other thing I’d say is transfermarkt comes with its usual caveats that a lot of it is based on age and contract length. So Kevin De Bruyne is valued the same as Ferguson and Salah is at €65m. Van Dijk is at €35m. However if you wanted to win a game tomorrow, you’d definitely chose them over Evan.

Saying that, I would assume we have a better squad than Finland on paper but I’ve never seen Hakans, Olila, Suhonen, Peltola or Antman play and you do get excellent young players (age 21-23) plying their trade in the second tier in France and Germany along with the MLS and the Norwegian league. So maybe they have a Mahrez or a Almeiron that we don’t know about. Unlikely - but I wasn’t gonna commit to saying they were **** when I had only seen a handful of players. The fact that they are second seeds presumably means they’re not that bad (or they got a very lucky draw in the previous group)

Re the Greek squad. If you asked me objectively, I think if you’re glass half full, you could argue that we would have 6 players in a combined 11 - but glass half empty and you could also argue that the Greeks could have 9 of a combined 11. I think only at right back and centre back are we guaranteed a player. As good as Evan is, Pavlidis has scored 20 goals in 20 games for AZ in the Eredivisie - so right now, it’s definitely a selection choice. Maybe Bazunu gets in over Vlachodimis. Maybe Ogbene and Cullen also get in, but maybe not too.

Fair enough about Hradecky. I got that wrong. A bit like ourselves Finland have always produced good goalies actually.

You are right about how Transfermarkt works, but it's still a useful tool. The stuff about contracts is very likely to come out more or less even across a squad of 20+ players. They reckon our squad is worth 4 times theirs. That's not close to being within the margin of error.

And they might have the next Jari Litmanen playing in Finland or Sweden, but we might equally have the next Liam Brady in a Premier League academy who'll be on loan by the times these games coming round and tearing the championship open on his way to superstardom.

What we know is we have the most exciting young forward in the Premier League. Possibly in Europe.


Yeah, don't go saying that in Finland. Finland is not in Scandinavia no more than we're in the UK.

elated has given a good response to your summary of the teams, but I would add that while two of the Finns are playing in top five leagues (there's a guy at Augsburg as well), we're not exactly over-endowed with players in those leagues ourselves, and if you take out those in big relegation trouble you're left with Kelleher, Doherty and Ferguson I think. Most of our squad is bog-standard Championship players.

You would certainly hope a new manager would have us competing with Finland and Greece and the three-team mini group (behind England) would be very tight. But that's a long way from saying that a best case scenario of going unbeaten against them is "staggeringly pessimistic". That makes no sense at all.

Every day's a school day. Apologies to the people of Finland.

We tend to have a similar number of players in the big 5 leagues every season. You're totally right that they tend to be involved in relegation scraps in the EPL, but as many are usually involved in promotion battles in the championship. Egan and Cullen could well be back in the championship next season, but Manning and McAteer could well be replacing them.

And to suggest 2 home wins and an away victory in Helsinki is a completely impossible target or even beyond the absolute upper limit of what we can realistically achieve is "staggeringly pessimistic". I'm not saying it's likely we will take 12 points from Finland and Greece, or get something against England, but it's not impossible.

I wish Irish fans would talk up our own players the way they talk up other countries. Particularly the young ones.


The shop is gone out of Ireland so it's abroad anyway

They're still here. There's one 300 yards up the road from me.

[pineapple stu]

We tend to have a similar number of players in the big 5 leagues every season.
We really don't. We're at an all-time low the last couple of years. Relegation candidates (all bottom six, within three points of the drop at best) are Ogbene, Omobamidele, Coleman, Egan, Collins, Cullen, O'Shea, Ebosele and O'Brien (plus Obafemi who has gotten ahead of the game and already dropped a division). Promotion candidates (top four, within three points of automatic promotion at worst) are Bazunu, Manning, Smallbone and Taylor. So we're looking at smaller again next year (transfers pending of course, and we may get something out of the play-offs too). McAteer hasn't switched yet so far as I can see, and I wouldn't count him.


And to suggest 2 home wins and an away victory in Helsinki is a completely impossible target or even beyond the absolute upper limit of what we can realistically achieve is "staggeringly pessimistic". I'm not saying it's likely we will take 12 points from Finland and Greece, or get something against England, but it's not impossible.
RLP said the best case was eight points, which you called staggeringly pessimistic. All you've done is changed the best case from a draw in Finland to a win (and our away record isn't exactly stellar) - that's hardly enough of a difference for the former to be staggeringly pessimistic. RLP is not known for his pessimism remember - he reckoned we should be looking at going unbeaten in the last Nations League.


I wish Irish fans would talk up our own players the way they talk up other countries. Particularly the young ones.
Foot.ie is full of people likening Adam Idah to Didier Drogba, reckoning we have a few 45-goal international forwards in the squad, and arguing that any mistake by an Irish player must be the fault of someone else.

[backstothewall]

Fair play to RLP. He at least offered an opinion, and for that I thank him.


This is an ideal time to ask as no one has any pre-programmed biases because of who the manager is etc.

How many points do people think represents success in that group?

Minimum acceptable return: For me 6 points is the bare minimum.

We should be winning against Finland in Dublin. And we should really get something in Helsinki. We can't contemplate losing in Dublin against Greece either. And there should be something else picked up along the way. That might be it a point against England, a win in Helsinki, beating the Greeks in Dublin or taking a point in Athens. Anything less than that just isn't good enough.

Success: 9 points or more.
A good campaign would be winning home and away against Finland, and a win in Dublin against Greece.

Approaching Best Case: 13 points or more.
That's 6 points against Finland, take at least 4 points against Greece, and either upgrade to a win in Athens and nab a point vs England or fluke a win against England.

Tell me I'm wrong if you must, but if you're going to do that at least stick your neck out and give your own opinion while doing so.

[NeverFeltBetter]

It's not an ideal draw for sure, but it's hardly the doom-laden affair some are making it out as. I think eight points is something worth aspiring to, that would be home wins against Finland and Greece, and draws away. Regards Finland I think that is very achievable, with Greece it's obviously more of an ask given the huge disparity between the two sides in their recent meetings: we'll find out there how much Kenny was a factor. Anything against England is a bonus, but a point at home isn't completely out of the question, after all we held France for a good while at home and but for a world-class save would have snatched the draw at the death. Two losses there would be expected, but I wouldn't go into those games in defeatist mood. Given how bad things have been in the last campaign six points wouldn't inherently be treated as a disaster by me, anything less than that would be troubling. Anything more than eight and I'd be ecstatic.

The fixtures aren't the best though. If we lose the opener to England badly it could be quite demoralising ahead of the arguably bigger game against Greene, then having the two critical away games within three days, and then having potentially to go to Wembley needing a result on the last day. Just psychologically it could have been better.

[Diggs246]

I actually think it a great draw for us

We need to banish our past demons.

In game two a win against Greece in Dublin will really help that

We are a far better outfit then Finland and i would be confident of 4 points ( at least)

the fact they beat us twice under Kenny, means nothing now

Look where 'Stephen has us! ( he got us to within 3 spots of Burkino Faso tbf!)

https://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/men

[ifk101]

I’ll reserve judgement on our chances until the new manager is appointed but we have a better pick of players than Finland. Whether we are a better team when the NL games are played remains to be seen. And we can make a better stab of beating Greece this time around. Fell flat in Athens after all the hyping, with O’Dowda putting in a career ending performance. With that result the writing was on the wall for Kenny, and in hindsight we just went through the motions for the rest of the year, ending with that dismal and rudderless showing against NZ.

[pineapple stu]

Tell me I'm wrong if you must, but if you're going to do that at least stick your neck out and give your own opinion while doing so.
Fair enough. I think best case scenario is second place in the group. I'm not going to build on good fortune (from, say, seven points across those four games) by adding in a bonus draw against England. I would like to think the bottom three will be tight, and tight games often end in draws. I've said before that while Greece played well enough against us last time to show they're a decent team, I think we should at least be giving them a proper game, and that we didn't was on Kenny. If nothing else, this is a great chance to gauge the new manager, and I think we will improve.

I could easily see five points (one win and two draws against Finland/Greece) as being a satisfactory outcome from the group. Provided we don't then get relegated of course.

[JR89]

Actually, second place would quite possibly be enough to get us into the playoffs. We could even come third and get into the playoffs as long as the group winner and runners up from the main qualification campaign are almost all ranked above us in the Nations League. 12 group winners qualify for the Finals, 12 runners up go into the playoffs, to be joined by the four highest ranked Nations League teams who do not qualify through the main qualification campaign. So, it's possible for the worst third-placed League B team to get into the WC playoffs.

Actually the four play off spots will go to the highest ranked group winners who didn't finish first or second in qualification.

[passinginterest]

I'd be in the 5 points is about a par return, 7 is above par and any more than that is very good camp. I'm very positive about most of the crop of players coming through. There's a lot of talent at centre back and some depth in the forwards. There's still issues at full back/wing back and a serious lack of quality in the centre of midfield that I think any manager is going to have a problem working around. At least one home win and draw and at least one away draw would be an ok performance. Would be hoping the new manager can find a bit more but it's going to be hard to build momentum and experiment. The friendlies are all tough games. It's not beyond possible that the new manger will be winless after five games and heading into a home game with Greece that will make or break the nations league campaign.

[Real ale Madrid]

I'm glad we drew England - a new manager is going to need a full term to bed in his ways so in many ways the upcoming NL and subsequent qualifying campaign are a bit of a free hit. A high profile game is exactly what we need in the absence of being competitive. If Carsley gets the job I imagine it will be a 4 year deal in any case. Greece and Finland gives us a fighting chance for some results but I can't help but think that we'd be better off in League C for 2028 qualification. We'll do well to get anything off Greece unless of course we see significant personnel improvements on the field. With a bit of luck with injuries we could challenge for 2nd so long as England go 6/6. But we could easily finish bottom. I think 3rd with 4 or 5 points is most likely.

[Razors left peg]

Having seen the fixture list I think having England at home in 1st game is good. The atmosphere should blow the roof off the Aviva. The prior friendlies are tough but if we get any sort of positive results we'll still be on the new manager bounce and the place will be buzzing. England haven't taken this competition as seriously as they should have, which is prob why they were relegated. They still see the games as friendlies. 1st game of the group we'll be raring to go while they be off the back of losing another Semi final on penos.

I'm not saying we'll win, but having them first helps our chances of getting something

[samhaydenjr]

Actually the four play off spots will go to the highest ranked group winners who didn't finish first or second in qualification.

Crikey, you're absolutely right. I don't know how I missed that. That puts a totally different complexion on things. With the draw we've got, particularly we might have a better chance of coming second in the main qualification group than winning the Nations League group. So should the new manager treat it as part of the rebuild in advance of the main qualification campaign?

[elatedscum]

I think probably 6 points and 3rd place is par for me.

That’s very possibly 2 wins against Finland or 1 win against Finland and 3 draws against Greece and Finland.

Second place is success for me. Doesn’t really matter how we get there but I imagine you’d need at least 8 points to get there.

I think looking at Finland’s results and what I can find of their performances over the last 18 months, you expect 4-6 points from those two games.

The gap isn’t so great that beating Greece home and away is out of the question. But I think they’re more likely to beat us in that manner than us them. I think you’d take matching results (2 draws or a win each).

As for England, you’d expect two losses. You’d hope for an Ireland-Germany Shane Long type game - where Lansdowne is rocking and we carry each other. We also snook a draw against a quality German team away from home with a last minute equaliser. That’s a lottery ticket - but England did drop a few points against Macedonia and Ukraine in the euros qualification, so it’s not entirely outlandish to imagine a result somehow.

[tetsujin1979]

Hadn't England already qualified when they dropped points?

[Olé Olé]

Foot.ie is full of people likening Adam Idah to Didier Drogba, reckoning we have a few 45-goal international forwards in the squad, and arguing that any mistake by an Irish player must be the fault of someone else.

I will remind you of a post you made in another thread: "Ah in fairness, that's another strawman post - challenging an argument no-one has made."

[Deckydee]

What do we think about bringing Engerland into Croker? Would be a great atmosphere! Positive or Negative?

[tetsujin1979]

Probably unavailable in September?

[pineapple stu]

I will remind you of a post you made in another thread: "Ah in fairness, that's another strawman post - challenging an argument no-one has made."
Eh?

All of the comments I referred to have been made here, and disprove the idea we don't talk up our young players

[Razors left peg]

Fair enough about Hradecky. I got that wrong. A bit like ourselves Finland have always produced good goalies actually.

You are right about how Transfermarkt works, but it's still a useful tool. The stuff about contracts is very likely to come out more or less even across a squad of 20+ players. They reckon our squad is worth 4 times theirs. That's not close to being within the margin of error.

And they might have the next Jari Litmanen playing in Finland or Sweden, but we might equally have the next Liam Brady in a Premier League academy who'll be on loan by the times these games coming round and tearing the championship open on his way to superstardom.

What we know is we have the most exciting young forward in the Premier League. Possibly in Europe.



Every day's a school day. Apologies to the people of Finland.

We tend to have a similar number of players in the big 5 leagues every season. You're totally right that they tend to be involved in relegation scraps in the EPL, but as many are usually involved in promotion battles in the championship. Egan and Cullen could well be back in the championship next season, but Manning and McAteer could well be replacing them.

And to suggest 2 home wins and an away victory in Helsinki is a completely impossible target or even beyond the absolute upper limit of what we can realistically achieve is "staggeringly pessimistic". I'm not saying it's likely we will take 12 points from Finland and Greece, or get something against England, but it's not impossible.

I wish Irish fans would talk up our own players the way they talk up other countries. Particularly the young ones.



They're still here. There's one 300 yards up the road from me.
I did not know Finland wasn't Scandinavian. I've lived Sweden a little while and had mates there that were from Finland and it never came up that they weren't Scandinavian. Foot.ie is a bastion of knowledge...sometimes

[backstothewall]

So should the new manager treat it as part of the rebuild in advance of the main qualification campaign?

I'd say no. We have a string of friendlies for that. And we have to start winning games against teams like Greece to improve our ranking if we don't want to end up being a pot 4 side or worse in the draw for future qualification groups.

[Diggs246]

Absolutely no
Our confidence is in the jacks and we need to get out of that particular toilet by winning football matches

[JR89]

Crikey, you're absolutely right. I don't know how I missed that. That puts a totally different complexion on things. With the draw we've got, particularly we might have a better chance of coming second in the main qualification group than winning the Nations League group. So should the new manager treat it as part of the rebuild in advance of the main qualification campaign?

As Backstothewall said we need this campaign to improve our world rankings. We're currently 28th in the FIFA rankings for UEFA teams and getting to 24th would see us as second seeds for the WC draw in December.

[John83]

I wanted to try to estimate what a par performance looks like a bit more objectively.

Eloratings.net has the following ratings.
England 2015
Greece 1729
Finland 1641
Ireland 1608

This gives England an expected score of 0.922849107 against us, meaning we'd win about one game (or draw 2) in 12.
Greece comes in at 0.664034751, meaning we'd get about 4 wins in 12, or substitute two draws for each win for any combo you like.
Finland's expected score is 0.545975590, meaning we'd get about 5 wins and a draw out of 12. Again, sub two draws for each of any amount of wins you like.

Over the six games, we have an expected score of 2*(3-0.922849107-0.664034751-0.545975590) = 1.734281104. So two wins or a win and two draws is a hair above par. None of that considers home vs away, or the effects of evolving squads or new managers or any of that, just results to date, so it's far from perfect, but anyone assuming we're definitely going to take 8 or 10 points off of Greece or Finland is pretty much saying that Kenny was an absolutely diabolical manager. Now, average is just average. We can get lucky. We can also get better and make our own luck. I'm certainly hopeful of better than 4-6 points, but that's what the statistics say we should expect.

[Snapshot]

I wanted to try to estimate what a par performance looks like a bit more objectively.

Eloratings.net has the following ratings.
England 2015
Greece 1729
Finland 1641
Ireland 1608

This gives England an expected score of 0.922849107 against us, meaning we'd win about one game (or draw 2) in 12.
Greece comes in at 0.664034751, meaning we'd get about 4 wins in 12, or substitute two draws for each win for any combo you like.
Finland's expected score is 0.545975590, meaning we'd get about 5 wins and a draw out of 12. Again, sub two draws for each of any amount of wins you like.

Over the six games, we have an expected score of 2*(3-0.922849107-0.664034751-0.545975590) = 1.734281104. So two wins or a win and two draws is a hair above par. None of that considers home vs away, or the effects of evolving squads or new managers or any of that, just results to date, so it's far from perfect, but anyone assuming we're definitely going to take 8 or 10 points off of Greece or Finland is pretty much saying that Kenny was an absolutely diabolical manager. Now, average is just average. We can get lucky. We can also get better and make our own luck. I'm certainly hopeful of better than 4-6 points, but that's what the statistics say we should expect.

The inescapable factor was the absolutely diabolical manager's absolutely diabolical results. Dropping 24 FIFA places while the majority of fans (80%-plus betimes) celebrated the historic experience? You're right about making our own luck.

[John83]

For comparison, we were exactly the same rating as Greece - 1729 - when Kenny took over. If you rerun the calculations I made above using that as our rating, our expected score rises to 2*(3 - 0.841586596 - 0.5 - 0.379041166) = 2.558744476, so an extra 0.824463372: about an extra draw or slightly more likely an extra win. The most likey outcome of 4-6 points becomes more like 6-7 points. (Elo ratings and 3 points for a win are a clunky match.) Form and luck are definitely going to be factors in how the group plays out: the teams that aren't England just aren't all that different in terms of quality.

[Fixer82]

For comparison, we were exactly the same rating as Greece - 1729 - when Kenny took over. If you rerun the calculations I made above using that as our rating, our expected score rises to 2*(3 - 0.841586596 - 0.5 - 0.379041166) = 2.558744476, so an extra 0.824463372: about an extra draw or slightly more likely an extra win. The most likey outcome of 4-6 points becomes more like 6-7 points. (Elo ratings and 3 points for a win are a clunky match.) Form and luck are definitely going to be factors in how the group plays out: the teams that aren't England just aren't all that different in terms of quality.

What?

[John83]

What?
Elo ratings are a system based on statistics. The difference between the ratings of two teams can be mapped to the average score you'd get if the two teams played many times. The ratings track results. If you ever saw The Social Network, the formula Zuckerberg wrote on the window - the one he based facematch or whatever he called the hotornot style website he made - is the one underpinning Elo ratings. A Hungarian mathematician called Arpad Elo did the hard work on this a long time back. I'm mostly familiar with them from chess, but there's a site that tracks them for men's national football teams.

The results from that say that we're the worst team in the group, but the gaps to Finland and Greece aren't unsurmountable. And as I said, it only considers results, so home advantage, form, injuries, managerial genius, luck, player development and decline, all of that gets averaged into a single number.

[pineapple stu]

The point of Elo ratings is that you can work out how likely you are - in the long run - to beat a team based on the ratings gap between the two teams.

If we're 125 points outrated, we should expect to win one game in three, and lose the other two. (Or some combination of wins/draws/losses which equates to a 33% success rate) 200 points = 1 win in 4, 300 points = 1 win in 6, 400 points = 1 win in 10. Two teams rated the same should score 50% against each other (which stands to reason)

John probably didn't quite need to go to nine decimal places, the the idea is the same - working out what the ratings gap tells us what we should expect to score. The 0.5 in the middle of the brackets is the two games against Greece - we should expect to draw both those (or win one/lose one) because the assumption here is we're the same rating as Greece. Two draws or one win/one defeat are the same for Elo (50%) but give different points, which makes the comparison a bit awkward, as John notes.

Anything better than that would reflect a good campaign.

[John83]

Just to note, that calculation - assuming we're the same as Greece - is based on the rating at the end of McCarthy 2. After Kenny, the expected results are lower, which calculation is in my earlier post.

And yes, ignore the umpteen decimal places. I was just copying/pasting from the calculator so as not to lose precision. You can round to 2 decimal places and consider it a percentage for any reasonable human interpretation.

[tetsujin1979]

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