Premier & First Division Predictions - 2024

[pineapple stu]

best predictions thread ever
Do we need to include "First poster to get offended at where others predict their team will finish" in future years?

[Nesta99]

In line with Foot.ie tradition it should be Worst predictions thread ever!

[redarmyfaction]

Galway into 4/1 from 11/1 to finish last with Powers after one game, I backed at 9/1 and when I tried again at 11s they wouldn't lay me. Free bet on the market for Placid and I at 5/1. Drogs now favs in the market.

[Nesta99]

What are the tradition adjusted odds?

[Kiki Balboa]

Maybe it is cheating to do this a week in, but I didn't have time to do it before:

1. Rovers
2. Dundalk
3. St. Pats
4. Derry
5. Waterford
6. Shels
7. Sligo
8. Drogheda
9. Galway
10. Bohs

First sacked: Devine (seem knifes are already out)
Top scorer: Hoban

Honestly see so little between 2nd and 6th, and are nearly interchangeable. I have zero trust in Derry, unless Hoban can change the whole attitude up there. I am not sure either of St. Pats - a lot of young talent left, and havent seen anything special from Daly. Although that defense looks pretty mean.

I think there is potential for a season to go horribly / spectacularly wrong for one or two clubs. There are no easy games at all in the league, so any problems that emerge, you could imagine it could easily tumble into a cl*sterf*ck. This seems like a very unforgiven league. Just no easy points or stretches anywhere. I picked Bohs and Galway as most obvious candidates (Galway because it seems like a very good first division squad, not a premier) , but really it could happen to anyone. In that regard, I wouldnt be too surprised if Rovers did not win the league. It just seems too easy to drop points consistently and the season getting away from a team.

Dundalk in 2nd place mainly because I like them. Also, a big squad to be able to handle the league. Just worried about left-back, and scoring goals... and defending in general... and loan players leaving huge gaps in the squad ... Actually, think we might win the league now...

[placid casual]

Has fentanyl reached dundalk?

[Nesta99]

Has fentanyl reached dundalk?

Dont be so glib!

[redarmyfaction]

Bottom place betting
Drogs 13/5
Dundalk 11/4
Waterford, Galway and us 5/1

Shamrock eased a little to win it 10/11
Derry 13/5
Shels 11/2 and Pats out to 11s
source PP.

[Martinho II]

Bottom place betting
Drogs 13/5
Dundalk 11/4
Waterford, Galway and us 5/1

Shamrock eased a little to win it 10/11
Derry 13/5
Shels 11/2 and Pats out to 11s
source PP.

I have a weird feelin that Dundalk will go down, think the bubble has burst with them, Hey even Drogs are playin much better! Hoban is a massive loss altogether

[Nah Nah Nah Nah]

Not that weird if you saw them last night

[redarmyfaction]

I have a weird feelin that Dundalk will go down, think the bubble has burst with them, Hey even Drogs are playin much better! Hoban is a massive loss altogether

The 2 Louth teams are more or less joint favs for last 3.6 Drogs and 3.75 Dundalk.

[Nesta99]

Bookies get it right and my faith in tradition is decimated!

[adydcfc]

Maybe it is cheating to do this a week in, but I didn't have time to do it before:

1. Rovers
2. Dundalk
3. St. Pats
4. Derry
5. Waterford
6. Shels
7. Sligo
8. Drogheda
9. Galway
10. Bohs

First sacked: Devine (seem knifes are already out)
Top scorer: Hoban

Honestly see so little between 2nd and 6th, and are nearly interchangeable. I have zero trust in Derry, unless Hoban can change the whole attitude up there. I am not sure either of St. Pats - a lot of young talent left, and havent seen anything special from Daly. Although that defense looks pretty mean.

I think there is potential for a season to go horribly / spectacularly wrong for one or two clubs. There are no easy games at all in the league, so any problems that emerge, you could imagine it could easily tumble into a cl*sterf*ck. This seems like a very unforgiven league. Just no easy points or stretches anywhere. I picked Bohs and Galway as most obvious candidates (Galway because it seems like a very good first division squad, not a premier) , but really it could happen to anyone. In that regard, I wouldnt be too surprised if Rovers did not win the league. It just seems too easy to drop points consistently and the season getting away from a team.

Dundalk in 2nd place mainly because I like them. Also, a big squad to be able to handle the league. Just worried about left-back, and scoring goals... and defending in general... and loan players leaving huge gaps in the squad ... Actually, think we might win the league now...

Jez this is turning out well :D

[total hoofball]

I've got Devine getting the bullet within the first 10 games spot on but early signs John Russell so far letting me down he is putting up a good fight over my prediction for him to be next manager sacked

[redarmyfaction]

Avg positions

Shams 1.07
Derry 2.43
Pats 2.60
Shels 4.17
Bohs 5.90
Dundalk 6.20
Drogs 7.20
Galway 7.60
Waterford 8.80
Rovers 9.03

Cork 1.25
UCD 2.92
Wexford 2.96
Bray 4.42
Athlone 5.75
Longford 5.96
Harps 6.08
Treaty 7.83
Cobh 7.96
Kerry 9.88

With I think more half the season over, only Derry in the right spot.




Predicted
Actual



1
Shams 1.07
Shels
3


2
Derry 2.43
Derry
=


3
Pats 2.60
Shams
-2


4
Shels 4.17
Waterford
5


5
Bohs 5.90
Galway
3


6
Dundalk 6.20
Rovers
4


7
Drogs 7.20
Bohs
-2


8
Galway 7.60
Pats
-5


9
Waterford 8.80
Dundalk
-3


10
Rovers 9.03
Drogs
-3

[pineapple stu]

I can't remember being a season less clear, for the most part, than this one. It seems like half the Premier hasn't put a full squad together yet, and equally that they're only a couple of injuries away from a crisis. And I've no idea about the first.

I'll go -

Premier Division
1) Rovers. I don't see that the others have done enough to catch up, but equally I don't see that Pohls/McEneff for Mannus/Finn (which seems effectively what their transfer activity has amounted to) is enough to address their recent European shortcomings.
2) Derry. Them or Pat's have the advantage of regular Euro money, but I think Derry with Hoban and Whelan as new signings on 2023 will give them an edge over Pat's. (Whelan's not a new signing obviously, but if he can get fit then he'd as good as be one, seeing as he managed three sub games last season)
3) Pat's
4) Galway. Let's go mad. The middle standings seem to be in a bit of crisis this year (thinking Bohs/Dundalk); it's a good year for someone to sneak up on the rails. 94 points and two Cup hammerings of Premier sides; I think people are underestimating them.
5) Shels. Duffer did well last year and their squad seems to have been reasonably settled over pre-season.
6) Dundalk. I know nothing about the players they've signed (bar Dara Keane!) Still seem a little bit ahead of Bohs/Drogheda/Waterford/Sligo though.
7) Bohs. Didn't have a great second half to last season, and don't seem to have replaced Afolabi or Talbot.
8) Drogheda. Probably exceeded expectations last year, but even then they were a long way off Bohs (17 points). Not sure enough has happened for them to make that up.
9) Sligo. Ed McGinty could be a big late signing (even if it's a blow for the LoI that he's flopped in England)
10) Waterford. When they were bad last season they were really bad, and they won't have Coughlan's goals to help them. The Fleetwood link could yet spring a surprise signing though (or even Tommy Lonergan)

First Division
Cork have to win. Or at least if they don't win it, serious questions have to be asked about what the hell is going on down there. UCD should be in the play-offs; Brennan and Finn is an exceptional First Division midfield. Kerry look like they're settling in for last again, albeit with more points than last year. The rest I have absolutely no idea about.
Time to read back what I said at the start of the year so!

Not too bad overall. Didn't expect Shels to repeat last season's Euro run, let alone win outright, but I don't think many did. And didn't expect Dundalk to tank so badly - 16 points off eighth. Galway in fourth was probably the pick of the good calls. First Division predictions all band through, albeit none were exactly groundbreaking stuff

[thebronze14]

Premier Division

1. Shamrock Rovers
2. Pats
3. Derry
4. Dundalk
5. Shels
6. Drogs
7. Galway
8. Bohs
9. Waterford
10. Sligo

First Division

1. UCD
2. Cork
3. Wexford
4. Athlone
5. Harps
6. Longford
7. Bray
8. Cobh
9. Treaty
10. Kerry

Premier division I can't see past shamrock Rovers again. Sligo I think will really struggle, Bohs will sack Devine early which will save them. In a complete limb I think Dundalks new striker will do well and fire them to 4th, a long way behind the top 3 but just ahead of shels who will have a European hangover. Galway will comfortably be safe without pulling up any trees but Waterford might struggle.

God knows with division 1! UCD could be either very good or awful!! I guess based on nothing it will be the former! Wexford will come third I think, they seem to have a good settled squad together. 4th-9th will be very close and could go any way. Harps should be a lot stronger and be there thereabouts to get to the playoffs.

I did pretty well with my predictions last year but I am much less confident this season!!
Not great at all. Did the Dundalk last Gullian even score?!?!

[legendz]

Premier Division:
1. Shamrock Rovers
2. Derry City
3. St Pats
4. Shelbourne
5. Bohemians
6. Galway
7. Dundalk
8. Sligo
9. Waterford
10. Drogheda

First Division:
1. Cork
2. UCD
3. Wexford
4. Athlone
5. Bray
6. Finn Harps
7. Cobh
8. Treaty
9. Longford
10. Kerry

Kerry left a lot of points behind them last year. They'll want to improve on that this year.


Drogheda are dogged alright. I'm backing Waterford for at least another playoff and Galway for 6th. Same top 4 as last year. Bohs up one. Dundalk, Sligo and Drogheda in that order of the remaining 3, with Waterford in the playoffs.
I predicted the same top 4 as last year. I didn't see Shels winning the league. I was confident on Galway. Didn't think Bohs and Dundalk would drop so much. Bohs and Dundalk went into the final round last year still in the hunt for the top 4. Shels finished 4th and have gone on to win the league. Dundalk have gone the other direction.
I wanted to predict a higher finish for Waterford but couldn't work out who would finish below them. I was scoffed at by a Dundalk supporter for predicting Drogs for automatic relegation! The Dundalk supporter must have known more that they were the ones who were going to implode so much.
8 of my 10 First Division predictions were correct. I just got the order of Treaty and Cobh wrong, and there wasn't much in it.
Depending on the off season, I might be predicting Cork to finish in the top 8 next year. Tough call on any of top 8 this year finishing below them.

[dundalkfc10]

Not great at all. Did the Dundalk last Gullian even score?!?!

He scored 6 league goals. Pretty sure only 1 from open play V Pats, all others were free kicks or penalties

[joey B]

He scored 6 league goals. Pretty sure only 1 from open play V Pats, all others were free kicks or penalties

The decision to let Pat Hoban go might have been one of the worst ever in the LOI ….

[2 Year Contract]

The decision to let Pat Hoban go might have been one of the worst ever in the LOI ….

According to Hoban, O'Donnell just told him he wasn’t wanted anymore. As a footballing decision that makes no sense, so I can only assume it was because O'Donnell wanted to get rid of Hoban in order to use his wage to bring in a few other players rather than using one big wage on one player. Monumentally bad judgement by O'Donnell who should really have opted for quality over quantity given his previous track record of signing duds from the Scottish lower leagues, particularly up front

[Nesta99]

There is more to this old story, including agents and their desire to see their player move and get a cut. A manger is backed in to a corner if any player makes demands with an 'or else' even if those demands would have likely been met until demands were made. A player may not have felt the need to make any demand unless advisors sowed some doubt based on talk of managing player loads better to prevent another injury crisis at the end of the season of injury after injury (most of which happened away from home!!!). Throw in mates being in the ear, moving the goalposts with new demands, heads turned by additional money, a player convinced a league title was practically a formality with a top goal scorer and with sizable bonuses - player moves. Maybe O'Donnell should have swallowed pride and just said yes you will play every minute of the season and told every member of the squad who landed in his office the same after.

[trevy]

I was hoping someone would resurrect this thread. In general, Sligo Rovers, Galway and Waterford did better than predicted and Dundalk and Bohs were the opposite.
Shout of the year from Martinho for predicting Dundalk would go down although I notice that was a few weeks into the season!

[dundalkfc10]

The decision to let Pat Hoban go might have been one of the worst ever in the LOI ….

A big row between himself, O Donnell and Gartland is meant to be the reason he was let go

I'd agree though the stupidest decision the club made in a long time (and their has been many)

[Nesta99]

Was this the battle of the boardroom?

[redarmyfaction]

Finish v pre season predictions, The wisdom of the Foot crowd not that wise, only Pats in predicted position, Shams next closest at -1 place out, biggest under-performers Dundalk, biggest over-performers Sligo Rovers.




Actual
Predicted
Diff


1
Shels
Shams 1.07
+3


2
Shamrock
Derry 2.43
-1


3
Pats
Pats 2.60
=


4
Derry
Shels 4.17
-2


5
Galway
Bohs 5.90
+3


6
Rovers
Dundalk 6.20
+4


7
Waterford
Drogs 7.20
-2


8
Bohs
Galway 7.60
-3


9
Drogs
Waterford 8.80
-2


10
Dundalk
Rovers 9.03
-4

[oriel]

2025 PD predictions should be fun, someone will obviously finish 10th and could be a wide net.

Paddy Power have 5 clubs priced on same odds at 33/1 to win the league, never seen that before in the PD, Galway / Waterford / Cork C / Sligo / Drogs, all on same price meaning all are in running for relegation also, Bohs are above this group at 28/1 which is a surprise as I'd have a good few above them in 2025 and they could well end up fighting to avoid the play off/

Take your pick from any in bold in my view for last spot, but could be any of this group if they get off to a bad start.

[Nesta99]

Finish v pre season predictions, The wisdom of the Foot crowd not that wise, only Pats in predicted position, Shams next closest at -1 place out, biggest under-performers Dundalk, biggest over-performers Sligo Rovers.




Actual
Predicted
Diff


1
Shels
Shams 1.07
+3


2
Shamrock
Derry 2.43
-1


3
Pats
Pats 2.60
=


4
Derry
Shels 4.17
-2


5
Galway
Bohs 5.90
+3


6
Rovers
Dundalk 6.20
+4


7
Waterford
Drogs 7.20
-2


8
Bohs
Galway 7.60
-3


9
Drogs
Waterford 8.80
-2


10
Dundalk
Rovers 9.03
-4




Is it ridiculously too much bother to look at other years for a summary of whether we were always well wide of the mark, this season was actually mad or whether LoI really is a bookies dream league. 2025 will be a tougher one again with Pats probably already the foot.ie favourites and you would never say never for the champions to just keep out of the bottom 3!

[outspoken]

2025 PD predictions should be fun, someone will obviously finish 10th and could be a wide net.

Paddy Power have 5 clubs priced on same odds at 33/1 to win the league, never seen that before in the PD, Galway / Waterford / Cork C / Sligo / Drogs, all on same price meaning all are in running for relegation also, Bohs are above this group at 28/1 which is a surprise as I'd have a good few above them in 2025 and they could well end up fighting to avoid the play off/

Take your pick from any in bold in my view for last spot, but could be any of this group if they get off to a bad start.

Never seen it priced this early before.

[2 Year Contract]

Never seen it priced this early before.

Probably a sign of the times. In years gone by I recall plenty of clubs with less than a handful of players signed up at this stage of December, where as nowadays with multi year contracts and early renewals a lot of clubs have a lot of business already done on their squads for next season so earlier odds are available

[dundalkfc10]

Never seen it priced this early before.


Probably a sign of the times. In years gone by I recall plenty of clubs with less than a handful of players signed up at this stage of December, where as nowadays with multi year contracts and early renewals a lot of clubs have a lot of business already done on their squads for next season so earlier odds are available

Think Bar One Bookmakers have priced it this early, every since that lad Kieran Burke from between the stripes and Longford started working for them a few years back

[redarmyfaction]

I would bet (E.W. 2 places 1/2 the odds) though to actually trade it I would need a bigger over the doors being so early.



Pats
9/4


Shels
3/1


Shams
3/1


Derry
5/1


Bohs
40/1


Rovers
40/1


Galway
40/1


Drogs
40/1


Cork
50/1


Waterord
50/1

[redarmyfaction]

Bar One are not up yet, I assume PP went up as a result of added interest in the league, not that these non tradable long term markets get a lot of interest particularly at the smaller prices.

[outspoken]

https://x.com/BarOneRacing/status/1869766418419601591/photo/1

[TonyD]

I would bet (E.W. 2 places 1/2 the odds) though to actually trade it I would need a bigger over the doors being so early.



Pats
9/4


Shels
3/1


Shams
3/1


Derry
5/1


Bohs
40/1


Rovers
40/1


Galway
40/1


Drogs
40/1


Cork
50/1


Waterord
50/1



Next season really looks like a great opportunity for Pats (Clearly bound to go tits up so ;)) Derry and probably Rovers too seem to have fairly big rebuilding jobs on, and it’s hard to see Shels repeating the feat next year. Of course a lot will depend on how well Rovers recruit, and how quickly signings will bed in. Their run in Europe going into the new year probably won’t help them get off to a good start either.

[oriel]

https://x.com/BarOneRacing/status/1869766418419601591/photo/1

FAI Cup winners favourites for relegation...................not saying it will happen, but this is going to be very interesting watching from afar who will finish last, someone has to, and a good few contenders too.

[Kiki Balboa]

FAI Cup winners favourites for relegation...................not saying it will happen, but this is going to be very interesting watching from afar who will finish last, someone has to, and a good few contenders too.

From what I hear, a lot of the Drogheda players wanted extra money this year, and Drogheda seem happy to pay more for the same players.

Those same players still only finished 9th, and a long way off from getting out of the playoff. They won the FAI cup , and fair play to them, but the only two Premier teams they beat both collapsed spectaculary in both games. That's not to take away winning the cup... But more there are signs there that they overachieved last year.

Losing Ahui would be a massive blow, as well as DJT and Perriot. That is suddenly a spine of the team that needs replacing.

Very early in the transfer window for sure though.

[legendz]

FAI Cup winners favourites for relegation...................not saying it will happen, but this is going to be very interesting watching from afar who will finish last, someone has to, and a good few contenders too.
The FAI Cup winners could be relegated. Relegated Dundalk then could actually have a right go at the FAI Cup, where Galway and Cork have fallen short. Dundalk should have a comfortable gap in the First Division by July.
One or two clubs in the playoff places could also focus on a cup run, without much impact on their playoff push.

[oriel]

From what I hear, a lot of the Drogheda players wanted extra money this year, and Drogheda seem happy to pay more for the same players.

Those same players still only finished 9th, and a long way off from getting out of the playoff. They won the FAI cup , and fair play to them, but the only two Premier teams they beat both collapsed spectaculary in both games. That's not to take away winning the cup... But more there are signs there that they overachieved last year.

Losing Ahui would be a massive blow, as well as DJT and Perriot. That is suddenly a spine of the team that needs replacing.

Very early in the transfer window for sure though.

Drogs abs deserved to win the cup, but has to been one of the easiest routes ever to the final, soon to be relegated and worst team in PD Dundalk, then 1 NL club, followed by 2 FD sides, and all bar one of these games were at home !

On 2025 PD, you get feeling series 1 will be key for any club hoping to stay off the bottom or bottom 2.

[outspoken]

Atm i'd have them above Cork and Sligo could be dragged into it but it could be a real slog unless they can find a few gems in uk again

[sbgawa]

Pats normally win the pre season but with Kenny in charge there might be more substance to their challenge. At the moment I'd make them favourites but a lot will depend on how we replace farrugia and Kenny in particular

[placid casual]

Think shels are the big winners in the off season they've signed well. I'd have them as favourites with Rovers 2nd favourites.
Kenny and Farrugia will be a loss, less so Hoare & Kavanagh.
Thankfully towell is off the books so a financial gain there
Looks like McGinty is coming in to replace Pohls, I'll wait before making judgement on the grant signing.

[Knocklyonhoop]

Some good signings ye, but still can’t see past Rovers, Pats for top 2. Order of which depends on Rovers’ final squad but Shels look double digits behind that Pats squad for me

Wouldn’t be surprised if Shels weren’t top 3 tbh

[outspoken]

O'Kane and Kelly are two "interesting" signings. Wouldn't have been impressed with O'Kane, personally think he's way too light and lacks in end product. Kelly is a 1 good game in 10 type player and now injury prone on top of it. Of course duff must know a good winger when he sees one and may turn these lads around

[EatYerGreens]

Do we not need a new 2025 Prediction thread? Or can I still win this one if I make a wild guess that Shels will end up 2024 champions? :D

[oriel]

Yes, defo need one.

I`m going to start by taking a wild forecast and Shels fans won't thank me, I think they may have done a Leicester City, one off job, and I think they might even finish 4th next season. They will also take joy in rubbing my nose in it if it turns out very wrong !

Rovers / Pats should be straight shoot out, and whatever Derry City turn up who knows, but I can't see past these 3 for now, Derry no chance of winning it, but should be top 3.

FD - Who knows. Possibly Dundalk, but this is a whole new ball game - first time in the div since 2008, long time out of it to navigate a return and games won't be easy.

PD relegation - this is fascinating who will finish 10th, someone has to, could be one least expected or maybe not, I know who I think will finish last but lets see how that pans out !!!

[legendz]

Amused by Treaty and Longford supporters going on to the Kerry forum predicting the end of the world. Kerry only have confirmed 5 re-signings so far. The second half of last season does not inspire confidence.

[joey B]

Do we not need a new 2025 Prediction thread? Or can I still win this one if I make a wild guess that Shels will end up 2024 champions? :D

We need a new thread!!

[pineapple stu]

We have a new thread (https://foot.ie/threads/297080-Season-2025) (kind of)

[nr637]

Cobh sign Shane Griffin from Shel's, I think that's their 6th player in. New owners FC32 are really showing their intentions. The new manager must have been given a clear project with their backing and promotion at all costs!

Are Cobh working with a full-time set-up now with all the new players. The Manager is definitely on a full-time contract, I suppose several of the players maybe similar.

Anyone in the know with a comment.