Palestinian Israeli Conflict.

[nigel-harps1954]

Maybe Im projecting, but bar direct politics between the belligerents I think banning a national football association is a major thing. It could be the biggest single decision that focuses attention than all the theatre at the UN. I did see today that Italy and Spain are sending naval vessels in support of the humanitarian flotilla. I reckon that it is to be on standby for rescue if something happens in international waters, but its not an insignificant development either.

Perhaps unrelated, but I was in Spain the past week on holidays, and the Spanish military were doing training exercises with a whole host of fighter jets, helicopters and war planes, cleverly disguised as a poorly advertised air show around Salou marina. The entire air show was all military planes, and a couple of ex military planes.

My brother was in Lake Garda in Italy last week too and said he saw the same thing happening there.

[pineapple stu]

Israel's Netanyahu apologizes to Qatar for attack on Doha, source says (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israels-netanyahu-apologizes-qatar-attack-doha-source-says-2025-09-29/) - from Reuters.

Netanyahu seems like the last person in the world to apologise for anything (well, up there with Trump, Putin, etc), so if this is true, then I'd say he's already starting to feel a bit of pressure.

Meanwhile, it looks like Israel's UEFA ban, if voted through, won't extend to the World Cup because that's not a UEFA tournament, and the US (co-hosts of course) have a lot more sway in that regard. But still looks likely they'll be banned from the Euros, the Nations League and from all UEFA club competitions shortly. Not sure quite what that means for Maccabi Tel Aviv in the Europa League groups - removing them would leave eight teams short a match, which is important in the league phase of course. Much easier to remove someone from a round-robin group.

Edit - the Examiner is saying Dynamo Kyiv would be bumped up to replace Maccabi in the Europa League as they lost to them in the playoff round, and then a team would be needed for the Conference League

[Nesta99]

I can see the vote or the decision being suspended due to recent political developments. I think this is a watershed moment in terms of support, Hamas reject this proposal (even if unplatable to them) then opinion sways again. Not that it will excuse Israels onging war on the Palestinian people as much as Hamas but it will effect the sesne of how some justify the means sadly.

The apology scarily does show how much infludence Trump has - Qatar are part of his in crowd, so he got Netanyho to apologise, someone who just wouldnt under usual circumstances. So an apology is generally a good thing but if you can make these to do the highly unlikely....

[Nesta99]

Trump's plan summed up. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c70155nked7o

It's doomed on a number of points but hopefully its a starting point kind of document with some room for change. If Hamas reject it outright...

7. Upon acceptance of this agreement, full aid will be immediately sent into the Gaza Strip. At a minimum, aid quantities will be consistent with what was included in the 19 January 2025 agreement regarding humanitarian aid,

Doesnt this basically admit that aid has not been let in to Gaza!? That claims of aid being delivered but have been taken by Hamas are not true. Contradicting a lot of what has been said by the US and Israel. Yeah maybe there is too much hope being placed in this, when whomever put it together is a low IQ individual that doesnt cover tracks.

[pineapple stu]

Kind of seems like a plan from two years ago in fairness.

It should be really really hard to row back from the open (and correct) accusation of genocide without dealing with that fact. Though nothing would surprise me with Israel to be honest.

[Neish]

Trump's plan summed up. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c70155nked7o

It's doomed on a number of points but hopefully its a starting point kind of document with some room for change. If Hamas reject it outright...

7. Upon acceptance of this agreement, full aid will be immediately sent into the Gaza Strip. At a minimum, aid quantities will be consistent with what was included in the 19 January 2025 agreement regarding humanitarian aid,

Doesnt this basically admit that aid has not been let in to Gaza!? That claims of aid being delivered but have been taken by Hamas are not true. Contradicting a lot of what has been said by the US and Israel. Yeah maybe there is too much hope being placed in this, when whomever put it together is a low IQ individual that doesnt cover tracks.

A Netanyahu written proposal, one that he know Hamas won't accept and thereby he can claim he tried to bring peace but Hams rejected giving him (in his view) the right to continue the genocide

[SkStu]

Kind of seems like a plan from two years ago in fairness.

It should be really really hard to row back from the open (and correct) accusation of genocide without dealing with that fact. Though nothing would surprise me with Israel to be honest.

I wondered if, in the background Netanyahu has tried to receive some assurances for himself and his ghouls that he will get a pass in terms of ICC etc.

The proposal is actually quite reasonable but it seems nigh on impossible to achieve as it is lofty on ambition but light on tactical detail. I (being the expert in these matters that i am lol) would have broken the deal down into a short term, medium term and long term set of deliverables with assurances - beyond words - to the people of Gaza. Make no mistake, most of them want Hamas gone too. I do think this puts Hamas in a weak spot and that their rejection of the deal would be a betrayal to their people. That said, Netanyahu already rowed back on two of the commitments within 24 hours of standing up in the WH and committing to it. So I wouldnt see it the same as Neish. Makes it easy for Hamas to reject and continue as is and blame Israel. Absolute cretin.

[Nesta99]

British media reported that the continental body has decided to hold off on a proposed vote following the announcement of US President Donald Trump's plan to end the war in the region.
https://www.rte.ie/sport/soccer/2025/1001/1536276-fifa-say-uefa-must-decide-if-israel-should-compete/

FIFA passing the buck!

[Nesta99]

I wondered if, in the background Netanyahu has tried to receive some assurances for himself and his ghouls that he will get a pass in terms of ICC etc.

The proposal is actually quite reasonable but it seems nigh on impossible to achieve as it is lofty on ambition but light on tactical detail. I (being the expert in these matters that i am lol) would have broken the deal down into a short term, medium term and long term set of deliverables with assurances - beyond words - to the people of Gaza. Make no mistake, most of them want Hamas gone too. I do think this puts Hamas in a weak spot and that their rejection of the deal would be a betrayal to their people. That said, Netanyahu already rowed back on two of the commitments within 24 hours of standing up in the WH and committing to it. So I wouldnt see it the same as Neish. Makes it easy for Hamas to reject and continue as is and blame Israel. Absolute cretin.

Its familiar territory with the semantic dance of the GFA - pathway to statehood is not agreeing to statehood/United Ireland or self determination. Decommissioning weapons or permantently putting them beyond use. Disarm or stand down paramilitaries. If the time and effort is taken to see through this differing perspective then you never know but you need committed buy in obviously and neither Hamas or Netanyahu want to end this. They are being forced to look like they want to end it, Netanyahu has advantage because he has 'agreed' first, but what he says will intend for this to fail. Hamas should call bluff and do what Republicans and PIRA did in NI and claim that they brought a militarily massive occupyig power to ceasefire and to the negotiating table. Put their people fist this time!!!

[SkStu]

Agreed. I don't think either side wants this to end on anything other than their own terms - and cannot find it in them to bring the compromises necessary. On one hand you have a leader that sees the other side as vermin to be occupied, then bullied, then extinguished exacerbated by the victim mindset of the civilians based on the atrocities from decades ago...on the other side, you have another far-right, unelected leadership that is engaging in a war that is justifiable based on the actions of Israel but has eternally been based on the destruction of Israel and welded to Islam. I'd love to think that they might call bluff but I don't think they can see it like that and probably get the blame from Netanyahu and the USA when it fails. I think this is one where the ordinary people on both sides need to find their voice in some meaningful way. Great words to write, no idea how it happens.

[Neish]

Ceasefire deal agreed. Hamas to release all reaming hostages in next few days whilst Israel to release both militant prisoners and civilian hostages also to pull out of Gaza City but remain stationed in Palestinian territory

Sounds great in principle just remains to bee seen if both parties hold up their sides of the bargain

[pineapple stu]

Hmmm. I mean, a ceasefire is good news obviously - but do we now quietly forget the reality of genocide? Shake hands, all better again, until the next time?

[Razors left peg]

Its hard to imagine that Netanyahu will all of a sudden agree to a Palestinian State so Im skeptical that this is anything meaningful

[SkStu]

they'll get their hostages back, Hamas will have a load of prisoners released, Israel will retreat, the "war" will end, the process will break down and then, at some point probably soon, the "terrorism meets genocide" will start again.

[culloty82]

If Israel were actually serious about creating a genuinely popular Palestinian alternative to Hamas, then they would release Marwan Barghouti, who has been in Israeli jails for over twenty years, but given their priority is to weaken the political leadership and annex the West Bank by degrees, that won't be happening:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marwan_Barghouti

[pineapple stu]

Bizarrely, Austria are now saying they won't host the Eurovision next year if Israel are banned.

I presume the UEFA vote on them is now quietly shelved. It appears Eurovision is the most likely place for sanctions against them. Which kind of sums up the world's approach to this.

[Nesta99]

When various bans started to gain traction there did seem to be a backing off by Netanyahu, he needs the Israeli people to at the very least stay pretty quiet and this was turning on him. The world will back off calls for bans and sanctions now and in the short term the conduct of Netanyahu and the IDF will just not be spoken about. It will be up to history to record that the Israeli state actors were responsible for a genocide and to express the irony.

It will take time to play out obviousl but seeing whether Hamas is viable as a paramilitary now will determine the sustainability of this process. I dont think they expected such a response to October 7th, they have been all but eliminated. Their support from Iran has been significanly undermined and allies in Lebanon and Yemen acted with token support when I think Hamas expected an all out response. The West Bank has been very very quiet. In this regard the Israelis have succeded and frightened the fook out of would be active (para)milititary opponents.

Has this all fed Hamas ranks with angry next gen Palestinians, or are the average Palestinians angry with Hamas for disregarding them, using them as human shields, and the Israelis just ddnt care about innocent civilians. Can a Palestinian Authority type elected group thrive by marginalising hardline groups like Hamas in fear of a future repeat? I think its possible, that Hamas have agreed already to this 20 point plan as a starting point, already allowing some aspects to apply - 'negotiating' some points like demilitarisation is a charade of still having capability which they dont. They could fight a limited insurgency but not a confontational urban conflict that they thought they could as it would require Israeli restraint from causing major collateral casualties which didnt happen this time.

Netanyahu is distancing himself from semantics of the 20 points like issues of statehood. But there is a potential mechanism included and he will be long gone, as will many of ourselves, by the time such conditions exists that this could be progressed. But he too seems to have been reigned in, by what or whom? Trump, well that pains me a bit but maybe credit where its due. Knowing that the Israeli people wre on edge under the weight of growing international condemnation, you cant ignore multiple countries recognising Palestinian statehood, a true fear for Israeli, it wasnt little Ireland but international powers that at the very least would make a hole in finances if boycotts were next step.

Israeli have 'won', at enormous cost of life, and sadly for now people are going to see a cessation as a success to political pressure. At least hostages will be released which is a great relief to all. Nobody is going to end up in the Hague, things will just carry on, Hamas is for now smashed. We will see how a rebuild of Gaza goes and whether the people will risk further Hamas support. There will be a power vacuum there so who knows what will fill it, an Israeli well funded proxy is likely.

[SkStu]

I hope he gets pulled in by ICC at some point. I still think he might.

[Nesta99]

No more than Putin all he has to do is pick where he travels to. We will only see him in the likes of the USA, so an arresst by the ICC is not going to happen. A bit like how the world is treating Trump with kids gloves it will be the same with Netanyahu, keep him sweet and not bombing innocence relentlessly in targeting militants. While the end doesnt justify the means there is a part of me that sees the reasoning to what they did to eliminate a serious foe and it worked - they can justify the collateral death to themselves. Usually growing nternal revulsion takes its toll but not this time, things just stopped in time. Its in the ball park of dropping the bomb on Hiroshima to scare the rest in to submission, and the argument of saving lives elsewhere, different scale but I think other groups like Hezbollah might think twice of attempting something similar in the future. Its a fake stability through fear which may eventually go bang, but the arrogance of these groups thinking they can draw in a country to fight in their urban theatre while opponents holding back using weapons that would obliterate everything is unlikely to be tested again. Id be more worried now about Bin Laden type attacks on allies and proxies, softer embassies in Europe, back to airline targets, becoming Russian trained cyber cells in the west - all this assymetric tactics we hear again these days. That pager attack on Hezbollah while seriously unethical was some operation and it is that kind of thing on both sides ths will continue to play out.