Euro 2020(1) megathread

[pineapple stu]

It's just around the corner - first match is on 11th June between Italy and Turkey in Rome; kick-off at 9pm. First two rounds of group games are at 3pm, 6pm and 9pm each day.

Squads being announced at the moment - Zlatan has withdrawn injured for Sweden (https://www.theguardian.com/football/2021/may/15/zlatan-ibrahimovic-ruled-out-of-euro-2020-due-to-knee-injury), while Benzema is in the French squad (https://www.rte.ie/sport/soccer/2021/0518/1222452-benzema-gets-surprise-call-up-to-french-euro-2020-squad/) for the first time in six years, having been kicked out for blackmailing a squad-mate over a sex tape (which he's due to stand trial for later this year)

It'll be interesting to see how North Macedonia get on - they were the League D winners, so arguably the weakest team ever to reach the Euros. They start against Austria on the 13th. Finland are the other debutants.

[NeverFeltBetter]

It's been one of the most low-key builds to a major tournament that I can remember, but might get into the swing of it after it starts. Some loose predictions:

-Wales will do better than some think absent from the Giggs drama.
-Finland to be the Iceland of 2021, insofar as they go relatively far, and ignorant people will think it's the most shocking thing in football history.
-North Macedonia to go out at the first stage, but not disgrace themselves.
-The English, absent opposition like Panama, will struggle more than they did in 2018, and Southgate will end the tournament in the firing line.
-An heroic last 16 exit for Scotland
-Spain to need Lewandowski to be injured to get automatic progression in the group.
-Portugal to scrape into the knock-outs in third, then somehow get to the semi-finals, at least.
-Germany out in the last 16 or last eight, with players already thinking about the next manager.
-France/Belgium in the Final, with Belgium winning.

More generally

-At least one team to have their tournament ruined by a COVID outbreak.
-A VAR call will cost England at least once, leading to the BBC Sports section to insist that the game of football has been irrevocably destroyed.
-A VAR call will save England's bacon at least once, leading the BBC Sports section to collapse in on itself.
-An early Slovakian exit will be used as a criticism of Stephen Kenny by at least one pundit.
-George Hamilton will, once again, identify every black player on the French team as "Paul Pogba" at least once in the tournament.

[jbyrne]

englands home advantage for most (all?) of the tournament cant be underestimated.
However, its hard to look past belgium, spain and france.

[pineapple stu]

No Real Madrid players in the Spanish squad for what I think is the first time ever at a major finals. Ramos deemed not to have recovered from injury.

Spain have also only named 24 players in their squad, which is a bit weird. Because of covid, you can name 26 players, although only 23 can be part of the match-day squad. It's a long time since a country took fewer players to a finals tournament than they were allowed to.

[Johnnie C]

Anyone know of any preview supplements /magazines for the tournament going with any newspaper before the big kick off?

[pineapple stu]

Current issue of When Saturday Comes has one

[NeverFeltBetter]

Sergio Busquets isolating after positive test: https://www.rte.ie/sport/soccer/2021/0606/1226390-spain-skipper-busquets-tests-positive-for-coronavirus/

[pineapple stu]

You wonder how the Euro players aren't vaccinated at this point?

[SkStu]

You wonder how the Euro players aren't vaccinated at this point?

He may have been. It is not 100% effective.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Not hugely impressed by Italy yesterday, the Turks let them control the game and it took them a long time to do anything with it.

[pineapple stu]

And suddenly that seems quite irrelevant watching Christan Eriksen receive 10 minutes of CPR... :(

[seanfhear]

And suddenly that seems quite irrelevant watching Christan Eriksen receive 10 minutes of CPR... :(
Hope for the best.

[pineapple stu]

I think the fact they stretchered him off after 15 minutes is good. They weren't working on him at that stage (bar oxygen), and 15 minutes is too early to give up CPR

[pineapple stu]

UEFA confirm he's been transferred to hospital and is recovering.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Some goal for Czech Republic's second against Scotland yesterday. The curl was something else.

Been OK tournament so far, nothing to get too excited about. Am hoping France/Germany later might provoke it into action a bit.

[pineapple stu]

Holland v Ukraine was an excellent game. Couple of other good games too; how Scotland didn't at least score yesterday is beyond me.

Not sure if Germany v France is the game to ignite it though - two big teams tend to neutralise each other and the games turn into a damp squib (like England v Croatia). The way football has gone, it's getting easier for a moderately organised team to restrict openings against even a top side, and a lot of games these days end up looking very similar to each other.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Ah, I missed that one, to my regret.

The English certainly are back in full "It's coming home" mode, but they are presumably playing Germany, France or Portugal in the last 16. Win that game and I'll credit it.

[sidewayspasser]

On the France v Germany match, I would expect France to win, 2-0 or something like that. I don't think Germany will get far in these Euros, could be another group stage exit.

[SkStu]

Ah, I missed that one, to my regret.

The English certainly are back in full "It's coming home" mode, but they are presumably playing Germany, France or Portugal in the last 16. Win that game and I'll credit it.

It is interesting. They are far from the finished article at the moment but... when you look at the players they have at their disposal, the relative youth of their squad and the players not selected, it is difficult to claim with any confidence that they will not win a major finals in the next 6-8 years. It galls me to say it. I think this tournament will be a little too soon but i do think we will need to collectively turn away from our tv's at some point soon.

[John83]

Yeah, they have some excellent players at the moment. 7 of their squad played in the Champions League final, not in minor roles either, and most of them have stiff competition to play.

[pineapple stu]

I do wonder if Southgate is the right manager for them now. He did a great job taking them to the World Cup semis - albeit that they only ever scored from set pieces - and I think the job of rebuilding the confidence alone after yet another knock-out stage shambles in 2016 (the Iceland defeat) is a big one that he's done well.

But his style seems very stodgy and you can't help wonder if a more open manager could achieve similar results playing better football. A debate that's been had elsewhere on these forums, albeit that they do have the players to do it.

Beating Croatia is a good result of course - albeit they only had five of the side from the 2018 World Cup Final - even if the performance was quite dull.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Oof, that was a rough conclusion if you're fond of the underdog. You'd presume Germany, France and Portugal are all good bets to get out of that group.

Edit: Regards England, I can't remember who said it but in 2018 they beat the teams you would expect them to beat and lost to the teams you'd either expect them to lose to or not be surprised by the result. The Croatia win shows they've grown a bit, but I'd place at least three teas above them as more likely contenders right now.

[NeverFeltBetter]

That was a lively one. France looked so threatening when coming forward with pace but gave the ball away constantly in their own half, Germany put together some lovely passing moves (perhaps a bit too much, with lots of aimless switching of play) but were hopeless in the box. Like so many before him it seems like Low has clung on one campaign too many. Portugal could easily top this group.

[osarusan]

Like so many before him it seems like Low has clung on one campaign too many.
They didn't get out of their group in Russia 2018, lost to Mexico and South Korea. I was amazed he didn't leave then.

[NeverFeltBetter]

I'm ignorant as to whether Low has a heroic status in Germany for 2014: do they have that kind of mentality? Perhaps the goodwill lasted this long.

I do think Italy are a good shout for the tournament now. Very impressive last night, the opener was brilliant and the order of games is helping them too.

[sidewayspasser]

I'm ignorant as to whether Low has a heroic status in Germany for 2014: do they have that kind of mentality? Perhaps the goodwill lasted this long.
Not really, at least not in the general public. There's been plenty of criticism of him for a number of years now. With the powers that be in German football, that's probably a different story. If they had sacked him after the 2018 World Cup, they would have had to take a long hard look at themselves for agreeing a new 4-year contract with him just before the World Cup.

[CraftyToePoke]

I do think Italy are a good shout for the tournament now.

Love to watch them play, and two bullish results where they usually start sluggishly, they are in this IMO.

[OwlsFan]

Good fighting performance by Scotland with no little skill. What I liked about the game is that there was little rolling round in agony after hard tackles which we have seen in nearly all the other game. Sky's new "Messi" (Foden) has yet to impress and Kane looks weary. Early days though and the tournament can't be won in the first rounds - it can be lost though. I have a suspicion that Italy may have peaked too early. I fancy Belgium.

[pineapple stu]

The great thing about Italy is they're not playing like Italy. When they're 1-0 up, they'll still attack. I think they can be dangerous in this, and they've a relatively easy last 16 tie as well if they don't lose to Wales at home (Ukraine/Austria/North Macedonia). They could have plenty in the tank by the time the quarters come around.

Belgium with de Bruyne and Hazard back are a good side too of course. They're on course to meet Italy in the quarters. That's unfortunately early for a pairing which would be a legit final at this stage.

Of the others - Spain, albeit that they've had covid problems in training, and Portugal have flattered to deceive so far. England and Croatia have been just poor, and I wouldn't put it past Croatia to lose to Scotland, who've been industrious and a bit unlucky in front of goal. Hard to judge France and Germany from their game against each other. Holland were good for 75 minutes but then went completely to sleep, and in fairness to them then recovered to win anyway.

Wales and, bizarrely, Denmark (with no points to date, but still well placed to advance) are the two "also rans" looking most likely to make an impression I think. Yer man Isak for Sweden is a cracking player, but I don't think they've the depth to make a real impression. Obviously the loss of Eriksen will hurt Denmark.

One other worry is that the goals per game rate (2.14) is at Euro 2016 levels (2.12), and both are behind Italia 90 (2.21), which was the benchmark in terms of poor attacking play. That's despite penalties becoming more common too - we've already had almost as many penalties given as in Euro 2008 and 2012 combined for example (8 v 9). Players are so big these days that there's so little space to work with, and the five subs rule means fatigue isn't an issue. I think it's increasingly becoming an issue FIFA will have to consider down the line, though I'm not sure what you do about it. I don't think you can reduce the game to 10-a-side. A rule that each side must have one player in the opposition half at all times would require an extra linesman. Maybe a straight yellow for the modern professional foul - the shirt-tug to stop a player going by - would help?

[pineapple stu]

Some stats on goalscoring actually. Euro 92 was the last tournament with the back-pass rule and had fewer goals per game than Italia 90. Euro 96 was surprisingly the same, but the next four tournaments saw a big uptick, only for the most recent two (and again, the Euro 2020 stats are a random point in time, not the final figures) to drop back to Italia 90 levels again.


Tour Games Goals GPG Penos GPG (excl penos)
1992 15 32 2.13 3 1.93
1996 31 64 2.06 6 1.87
2000 31 85 2.74 8 2.48
2004 31 77 2.48 7 2.26
2008 31 77 2.48 4 2.35
2012 31 76 2.45 3 2.35
2016 51 108 2.12 8 1.96
2020 21 45 2.14 4 1.95

The World Cup also saw an uptick after the backpass rule, but its goals slump was in 2006/10.


Tour Games Goals GPG Penos GPG (excl penos)
1990 52 115 2.21 13 1.96
1994 52 141 2.71 15 2.42
1998 64 171 2.67 17 2.41
2002 64 161 2.52 13 2.31
2006 64 147 2.30 13 2.09
2010 64 145 2.27 9 2.13
2014 64 171 2.67 12 2.48
2018 64 169 2.64 22 2.30

It's tempting to say that dross like Panama, Saudi Arabia, etc, boosts the WC figures, but then Albania, North Macedonia and others have made the last two Euros.

So is this a real issue developing? Or an anomaly? Or just random ramblings and misinterpretation of stats?

[OwlsFan]

Here's a question: what football rule is NEVER enforced by the referee ?

[John83]

Foul throw. Near enough, anyway. :)

[OwlsFan]

No but I have seen a few of those as well.

[SkStu]

Goalkeeper time with ball in hands? (is it 6 seconds or 10?)

[OwlsFan]

Exactly. Six seconds I think. Sometimes I have counted 20 seconds before they release and that includes them lying on the ground holding the ball. It would greatly speed up the game if that was enforced.

[pineapple stu]

Is it six seconds or six seconds once the penalty area is cleared?

There used to be all sorts of rules about that back in the day. I remember having to bounce the ball three times before a player was obliged to leave the box for example.

[SkStu]

Exactly. Six seconds I think. Sometimes I have counted 20 seconds before they release and that includes them lying on the ground holding the ball. It would greatly speed up the game if that was enforced.

Totally - it is a bit of a bug bear of mine too :D although i have to confess, Talbot did it a couple of times yesterday and it didnt really bother me so much LOL. I did look it up a while ago and what i found was that a) it was a guideline v a rule and b) that most people thought it was 10 seconds. This was the jist of the responses i saw to the same question on Quora.


Is it six seconds or six seconds once the penalty area is cleared?

There used to be all sorts of rules about that back in the day. I remember having to bounce the ball three times before a player was obliged to leave the box for example.

Funny, i was thinking of that yesterday too. When we were kids it was two bounces and players had to leave the box... but i doubt that was ever really a rule?! :)

[NeverFeltBetter]

I think obstruction is very selectively enforced, especially in terms of shepherding the ball out over the endline. The laws state a player can shield the ball, but not if they are holding off an opponent with the arm or body (which seems hard to reconcile with the idea that a player can still shield the ball: with what?)

I think yellow cards for simulation is also quite selective from ref to ref. There are plenty of times when an incident is either a foul or a dive, and the ref's just play on with no punishment.

"Appearing to take a throw-in but suddenly leaving it to a team-mate to take" is supposed to be a yellow card.

Just so I'm not hijacking the thread entirely, Denmark's win last night was stirring stuff. I don't think they'll go much further, but I'll admit it's nice to see their tournement not completely collapse after what happened.

Edit: Regards keepers, it is six seconds. Law 12.2: "An indirect free kick is awarded if a goalkeeper, inside their penalty area,commits any of the following offences:• controls the ball with the hand/arm for more than six seconds before releasingit"

[pineapple stu]

I think there's also a rule that you can't obstruct the keeper taking a kick-out or throw-out as well. But back in the olden days you did have players stand in front of the keeper and the keeper would weave around them almost to kick the ball out.

On topic, Denmark have Wales next. That's winnable. Then Holland or a third-place team (which could yet be Croatia or Portugal). That's fairly tough alright.

[pineapple stu]

I think it's only fair, after giving out about the low number of goals scored at the tournament earlier, to point out that yesterday was probably one of the most dramatic days ever seen at the Euros. 18 goals, Ronaldo equalling the World record, Germany nearly going out, Hungary nearly going through from the group of death, Poland recovering from 2-0 down to almost get through, a third goalkeeper og of the campaign, a sixth missed penalty, permutations changing every few minutes. A great evening's entertainment!

[NeverFeltBetter]

If England can get past Germany - quite doable, depending on which Germany show up - you'd imagine they'd get past either Sweden or Ukraine to reach the semi's, at which point it would probably be the Dutch?

The other half of the draw looks really good though. Belgium/Italy would be a special quarter-final, maybe a World Cup Final replay in the other?

[NeverFeltBetter]

Great performance by Denmark, albeit Wales just didn't show up for huge stretches. Bale just vanished from the game after 10 mins. You'd imagine it will be Danes/Dutch in the quarters, should be good.

[pineapple stu]

OK, my stats earlier were very much at a point in time (as I had flagged! :) )

Specifically, in the first 23 games, there were 49 goals, at a sub-Italia 90 level.

In the next 19 games, there's been 69 goals, at a level unprecedented in a modern tournament. Yesterday's two games were utterly extraordinary.

The fear now is Gareth Southgate's England are unlikely to keep the ball rolling - though I said the same about the usually-dull Swiss before their France game in fairness.

[John83]

The fear now is Gareth Southgate's England are unlikely to keep the ball rolling - though I said the same about the usually-dull Swiss before their France game in fairness.
Speak for yourself. I expect goals from Kane, Sterling, Foden, Grealish, Rashford, Saka, Sancho, and Mount in a glorious 9-8 penalty defeat to the Germans.

[pineapple stu]

Touché!

But it's a strange thing with this England tea - they have all those great attacking players, but Southgate doesn't seem to want to let them play that way.

[John83]

Touché!

But it's a strange thing with this England tea - they have all those great attacking players, but Southgate doesn't seem to want to let them play that way.
Oh, I didn't mean they'll play anything but dull, dour football. I'm curious how they stack up against the bigger teams; I think Southgate is partly playing so conservatively because he has a weaker core (centre halves and particularly centre mid) than the British press seem to believe. The two defensive mids are inexperienced players from mid-table teams. The attack might be a big deal if and when they are left off the hook chasing a game, but I think they lack fluency because of how they're being coached and don't see any great danger of them playing out a 5-3 win over anyone. And if this is a jinx and they do just that tonight, then I'll just have to sit there and endure the goalfest.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Big, big moment for England. Win and it's hard to see them not making the final with the opposition to come. Lose, and there will be some degree of recriminations that will probably see Southgate out circa early December 2022. I'd saw Low is happy to be labelled an underdog.

If I was to hazard a winner now, it would be whomever wins the Belgium/Italy game, and I suspect that'll be Italy.

[OwlsFan]

Sky were eager to report that he won't be "resting" any players for the Ukraine game. What ? Who would have thought for a second, other than Sky, that they'd rest players for a quarter final of the Euros. It's not the Carabao Cup. Sky obviously think the result is an automatic win for England. We shall see.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Amused by a Financial Times article I saw linked elsewhere (paywall), on fears that England's players/management could be a problem for the Tory government if they win the tournament:


Conservatives and Johnson supporters are less ecstatic. Some seem to believe that Southgate is becoming a tool of deep Woke — with one Tory strategist telling me that the England manager’s patriotism essay was “suspiciously well-written”.

Because Southgate has always had the appearance of a knuckle-dragging "ITS COMIN ORM" soccer hooligan, yes? Also "deep Woke", is that what we're calling it now? Examples cited of such things include Harry Kane wearing a rainbow armband and Marcus Rashford suggesting that child hunger is something the state shouldn't allow.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Brilliant semi, lots of nice attacking football. Got a bit slow in ET, but enjoyed the shoot-out, especially the final kick which says something of Italy's composure despite the perception of them as some sort of patriotic freight train.